C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

[SimpleJack]

The plan is for the Hawks to be bad for a couple years. Other than Bedard their next best young talents are Korchinski whos 19 and just played in a handful of games and Moore and Nazar…both of who havnt even made the NHL yet. Possibly Reichel as well. But these kids need a couple years, over which time they will then add an additional 4 more 1st rounders(with likely a couple being lottery territory) and I believe 5 more 2nd rounders too.

By this same time of year 2026 when Bedard just turns 21 people will have a very different opinion about the depth of talent on the Hawks roster. And then THAT will also be the ripe time to strike in FA and make splash additions to add to the young core that they will have established.

As for now well these are the very beginning stages still. So it’s basically just Bedard and a bunch of nothing.

 

[nbwingsfan]

That’s cool and all, but all I can think of when I watch is how unbelievably bad the team around him is. It’s nuts that the Hawks acquired zero free agents of even approaching-average skill for Bedard to play with - they could have overpaid on extremely short term deals for some FAs looking to cash out and set themselves up for next year by playing with 98, without altering the trajectory of the team. It’s not like they had any quality youth banging on the door that would have been impeded by such acquisitions.

I think ending te rebuild this early just over one player is a very bad idea. Get a couple more lottery picks and keep building a super team

Celebrini and Bedard on the same team would be the Drai/McDavid

 

[bigdog16]

So do the people who said he was a lock for 90 points still think he will break 90?

 

[prongertheman9]

So do the people who said he was a lock for 90 points still think he will break 90?

I would be shocked to see him finish below a point per game. 90 is feasible

 

[nbwingsfan]

So do the people who said he was a lock for 90 points still think he will break 90?

Depends how many games the only other good forward on the team (Hall) plays.

I still think he’s a lock for 40. Never really thought he’d get 90pts though. That forward roster is abysmal

I think the only players to pace for even 20G/40pts last season were Hall and Athanasiou (who’s a “put my head down and tunnel vision my way to the net” player). It’s gross

 

[Just Linda]

I would be shocked to see him finish below a point per game. 90 is feasible

I had him at 50-60 pts. This is still going about how I expected though I expected more chemistry/ magic from Hall (Hall has disappointed me).

He'll get better and more adjusted as the season plays on. Chicago just has no support, it's hard to overcome NHL dmen when they can single you out, and I don't see him at 18 being able to play all 82 games when the other teams are able to get at him freely like they do now.

 

[prongertheman9]

I had him at 50-60 pts. This is still going about how I expected though I expected more chemistry/ magic from Hall (Hall has disappointed me).

He'll get better and more adjusted as the season plays on. Chicago just has no support, it's hard to overcome NHL dmen when they can single you out, and I don't see him at 18 being able to play all 82 games when the other teams are able to get at him freely like they do now.

So is your guess of 50-60 points based on you thinking he is going to miss games? Or 50-60 if he plays the full season? I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if he plays the full 82. He doesn't really play a game that is susceptible to injury and I don't think he has missed a single game in the last 3 seasons.

 

[blundluntman]

So do the people who said he was a lock for 90 points still think he will break 90?

I had his ceiling being around 90-100 but I still think he scores at least a ppg. His team is atrocious but he's still producing. If you don't count that offsides challenge, he's scored 4 goals in his last 4 games.

 

[Just Linda]

So is your guess of 50-60 points based on you thinking he is going to miss games? Or 50-60 if he plays the full season? I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if he plays the full 82. He doesn't really play a game that is susceptible to injury and I don't think he has missed a single game in the last 3 seasons.

Both.

Hughes played 61 his rookie year, Matthews missed about 10-20 games in each of his second and third years, McDavid played 45, Lafreniere played 56, Slaf missed a lot.

It's more common for top prospects to miss 20 games in a season than to play all 82.

I don't think Bedard will be injury prone at all but players get banged up as rookies, 70 games seems like a reasonable projection for a first year player.

 

[prongertheman9]

Both.

Hughes played 61 his rookie year, Matthews missed about 10-20 games in each of his second and third years, McDavid played 45, Lafreniere played 56, Slaf missed a lot.

It's more common for top prospects to miss 20 games in a season than to play all 82.

I don't think Bedard will be injury prone at all but players get banged up as rookies, 70 games seems like a reasonable projection for a first year player.

I don't know why you would be trying to forecast something as random as injuries when you are making your projections. Not to mention you failed to include that Matthews, Dahlin and Hischier all played 82 as rookies - if we are just looking at #1 picks during your timeline.

It is interesting that you have his point projection still so low despite thinking he will get better and more adjusted as the season goes on. He has 6 points in 9 games despite being completely snake-bitten while playing a gauntlet of a schedule. Once he settles in and the schedule eases up wouldn't you expect the production to increase?

 

[TheGreenTBer]

McDavid is nervous ordering pizza (online, not even over the phone).

I'm now curious what kind of toppings McDavid prefers on pizza.

Look what you've done to me EdJo

 

[Just Linda]

I don't know why you would be trying to forecast something as random as injuries when you are making your projections. Not to mention you failed to include that Matthews, Dahlin and Hischier all played 82 as rookies - if we are just looking at #1 picks during your timeline.

It is interesting that you have his point projection still so low despite thinking he will get better and more adjusted as the season goes on. He has 6 points in 9 games despite being completely snake-bitten while playing a gauntlet of a schedule. Once he settles in and the schedule eases up wouldn't you expect the production to increase?

Not really.

The league is looser go start, production falls as the season goes on, I don't expect Jack Hughes to score at a 2.25 point per game pace for the year either. Bedard will offset that with progression but I'm not seeing anything that's saying 'once this changes, he's going to burst'. Chicago doesn't give him the chance.

A seperate betting pool I'm in is for his points after 10 games, I bet on him getting 5g and 3 assists after 10 games so he's actually performing slightly worse than I predicted. I'm rooting on him getting 1g + 1a in his next game for sure though.

I think he'll slump at some point in the season and get hot at other points. Like other players.

And about the injuries... I roll averages or pace into projections. It's luck but some luck you can predict, what games a player will miss is hard to predict but it's statistically likely that a first year player will miss some games.

 

[Yepthatsme]

How are people circling in right now trying to say Bedard’s start has been anything but generational? The kid has put the puck in the net 5 times through his first 9 NHL games (yes only 4 counted). Auston Matthews, the best goal scoring prospect we have seen since Ovechkin, only potted 6 in his first 19 games, and more reasonably 2 goals in 18 games with a transcendent 4 goal game opener thrown in there. To come out of the gates scoring at officially a 37 goal pace is absurd, considering he isn’t even 4 months in to being 18 yet, and hasn’t finished his first month of playing in the NHL.

Matthews began to really accelerate around that 20 game mark when everything just clicked, watch for Bedard to do the same around the 20-30 mark . The fact that he is scoring pretty consistently already before it clicked should be terrifying to the league, especially when he is almost a full year younger than Matthews was to boot.

 

[prongertheman9]

Not really.

The league is looser go start, production falls as the season goes on, I don't expect Jack Hughes to score at a 2.25 point per game pace for the year either. Bedard will offset that with progression but I'm not seeing anything that's saying 'once this changes, he's going to burst'. Chicago doesn't give him the chance.

A seperate betting pool I'm in is for his points after 10 games, I bet on him getting 5g and 3 assists after 10 games so he's actually performing slightly worse than I predicted. I'm rooting on him getting 1g + 1a in his next game for sure though.

I think he'll slump at some point in the season and get hot at other points. Like other players.

And about the injuries... I roll averages or pace into projections. It's luck but some luck you can predict, what games a player will miss is hard to predict but it's statistically likely that a first year player will miss some games.

I understand the injury logic if you were looking at it from a straight betting perspective but I interpreted @bigdog16 question as under the assumption he stays relatively healthy or will he score at a 90 point pace otherwise.

What PPG do you see him finishing with then?

 

[bigdog16]

I understand the injury logic if you were looking at it from a straight betting perspective but I interpreted @bigdog16 question as under the assumption he stays relatively healthy or will he score at a 90 point pace otherwise.

What PPG do you see him finishing with then?

That is what I was insinuating, yes.

I had him at 50-60 points. Hes pacing for 54 right now. I still don't think he scores a PPG, solely based on how bad his team is.

 

[Czechboy]

I said 50 to 60 points... He's right on track for 54. Curious if he can stay healthy all season? Tough league for teenagers. Brutal really

 

[SimpleJack]

How are people circling in right now trying to say Bedard’s start has been anything but generational? The kid has put the puck in the net 5 times through his first 9 NHL games (yes only 4 counted). Auston Matthews, the best goal scoring prospect we have seen since Ovechkin, only potted 6 in his first 19 games, and more reasonably 2 goals in 18 games with a transcendent 4 goal game opener thrown in there. To come out of the gates scoring at officially a 37 goal pace is absurd, considering he isn’t even 4 months in to being 18 yet, and hasn’t finished his first month of playing in the NHL.

Matthews began to really accelerate around that 20 game mark when everything just clicked, watch for Bedard to do the same around the 20-30 mark . The fact that he is scoring pretty consistently already before it clicked should be terrifying to the league, especially when he is almost a full year younger than Matthews was to boot.

And just wait a few years when he really gets some legit top end talent to play with. He’s going to eventually be putting up absolutely absurd #s.

 

[Just Linda]

I understand the injury logic if you were looking at it from a straight betting perspective but I interpreted @bigdog16 question as under the assumption he stays relatively healthy or will he score at a 90 point pace otherwise.

What PPG do you see him finishing with then?

55-60, leaning closer to 55 than 60 now.

Edit: Also, i think I originally responded to the wrong post lol

 

[LeProspector]

Bedard plays the game so fast. The Hawks need a guy that can slow the game down and feed him.

One of the Strome brothers would be perfect. Not Matthew though.

 

[Bubbles]

I'm now curious what kind of toppings McDavid prefers on pizza.

If it's anything like his personality, then vanilla and milquetoast.

 

[BardownMagic]

I don't know why you would be trying to forecast something as random as injuries when you are making your projections. Not to mention you failed to include that Matthews, Dahlin and Hischier all played 82 as rookies - if we are just looking at #1 picks during your timeline.

It is interesting that you have his point projection still so low despite thinking he will get better and more adjusted as the season goes on. He has 6 points in 9 games despite being completely snake-bitten while playing a gauntlet of a schedule. Once he settles in and the schedule eases up wouldn't you expect the production to increase?

Once the big boys get all geared up things will be even harder. Of course he will have more experience in 20 games, but he will also be more fatigued in his first full, 82 game nhl season and I think a 60ish point rookie campaign would be a success for him. 60 in 75 with a 40/25 split seems like a good bet. But I never boight bedard as the next mcd. Matthews level for sure.

 

[Hanji]

How are people circling in right now trying to say Bedard’s start has been anything but generational? The kid has put the puck in the net 5 times through his first 9 NHL games (yes only 4 counted). Auston Matthews, the best goal scoring prospect we have seen since Ovechkin, only potted 6 in his first 19 games, and more reasonably 2 goals in 18 games with a transcendent 4 goal game opener thrown in there. To come out of the gates scoring at officially a 37 goal pace is absurd, considering he isn’t even 4 months in to being 18 yet, and hasn’t finished his first month of playing in the NHL.

Matthews began to really accelerate around that 20 game mark when everything just clicked, watch for Bedard to do the same around the 20-30 mark . The fact that he is scoring pretty consistently already before it clicked should be terrifying to the league, especially when he is almost a full year younger than Matthews was to boot.

Using that criteria, you could say the same for Carlsson and Poitras. Are they generational too?

 

[Yepthatsme]

Using that criteria, you could say the same for Carlsson and Poitras. Are they generational too?

Carlsson has been extremely impressive, but he’s also 8th in scoring on his team and hasn’t been a key cog for Anaheim to date. Poitras is closer to being 20 than he is to 18, you’re just being pedantic there.

Bedard leads his team in goals and points, and leads his forward core in TOI. And as a pretty fresh 18 year old, has unofficially scored in more games than he hasn’t to start his career. If you can’t see the difference between that and the other two, there’s not much I can do to help you here.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

Carlsson has been extremely impressive, but he’s also 8th in scoring on his team and hasn’t been a key cog for Anaheim to date. Poitras is closer to being 20 than he is to 18, you’re just being pedantic there.

Bedard leads his team in goals and points, and leads his forward core in TOI. And as a pretty fresh 18 year old, has unofficially scored in more games than he hasn’t to start his career. If you can’t see the difference between that and the other two, there’s not much I can do to help you here.

The Ducks are managing Carlsson's time. That's why he's only appeared in 6 of their 10 games, and his point total isn't more impressive.

As GM Pat Verbeek explains:

“I played in this league as a 19-year-old. I kind of know at game 40, 42 somewhere in there, I hit a wall. It took me a while to kind of get through that wall, and I don’t want him to go through that. I want him to be a horse in the second half of the season. So, we’re going to manage his games for the next couple of months anyways.

The full article is here.

 

[Bombshell11]

Using that criteria, you could say the same for Carlsson and Poitras. Are they generational too?

Carlsson is 100% without a doubt generational in the way he plays the game as a whole. You also need to define what Generational means, is it just about scoring goals? then probably not since he'll be playing both ends extremely well. His PPG is better as of now but more importanly he's useful in all aspects of the game, he's not one dimensional as some of the other prospects.

But its all about prospect developement and its too soon to tell but so far he's got an edge.