C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

[ozzie]

Zero percent chance.

Next stop an invite to the Men's World Championship for Team Canada?

 

[daver]

Yes, but my argument is it's unlikely McDavid finishes with 87 points coming out of junior because they don't play 82 games in junior. It's very likely fatigue catches up to a player who's coming from a league that plays under 60 games.

Let's say Bedard finishes top 5 in scoring, it's a better rookie season than Crosby and McDavid. Is it fair to expect that?

Could it happen? Sure - but will it happen? Unlikely.

To say Bedard is going to join the league and be a top 10 player in the league in their rookie season is unreasonable. I'm saying top 10 and not 100 points because the poster specifically said he would be better as a rookie than Marner is today, who the NHL has rated #1 RW (first team) for multiple seasons in a row.

Will he have top 10 potential? Of course, he has that today. I mean, forget age, would I bet he would be a top 10 player in the NHL at 5'10 at 18? No.

He is putting up a better season statistically than McDavid and an argument can be made that it is the 2nd best draft season since Mario.

I don't think we look at his size and use comparable players physically to judge his potential impact next year. He is on another level offensively from every other prospect since 1984 save for Crosby and McDavid.

I would not be surprised to see him be a Top 10 player next year.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Since the World Juniors his stats are......

27gp - 43 goals 35 assists for 78 points and 175sog.

 

[Just Linda]

He is putting up a better season statistically than McDavid and an argument can be made that it is the 2nd best draft season since Mario.

I don't think we look at his size and use comparable players physically to judge his potential impact next year. He is on another level offensively from every other prospect since 1984 save for Crosby and McDavid.

I would not be surprised to see him be a Top 10 player next year.

That's the issue with stat watching, it doesn't tell why his numbers look good.

Take last night for example. He had 1g, 1a so must've been a great game? No, he looked exhausted because he just played his third game in three days and was far from dominant. It was the worst I've ever seen him play, he had about 3-4 plays during the game where he looked dangerous and had multiple awful giveaways that lead near goals against.

He's going to be a great player but he's not a finished package yet and it's silly to expect him not to take a bit of time to adapt to the next level.

Caufield is a good comparable for development path, Bedard is better of course. Smaller guy without huge top line speed but fantastic pick skills, took an extra couple years to hit his full ability and become elusive enough to be a top player.

Bedard is a flawed player, he's 17. He's not going to be a 100 player next year.

 

[Divine]

He is putting up a better season statistically than McDavid and an argument can be made that it is the 2nd best draft season since Mario.

I don't think we look at his size and use comparable players physically to judge his potential impact next year. He is on another level offensively from every other prospect since 1984 save for Crosby and McDavid.

I would not be surprised to see him be a Top 10 player next year.

The thing is though, ironically he’s putting up a similar draft season to Patrick Kane, who’s his closest comparable when it comes to size and play style.

Kane had 58GP - 62G - 83A - 145P
Bedard has 55GP - 70G - 71A -141P

Their seasons are actually quite similar, and their style of play is actually the most similar of any NHL/prospect. They’re even the same size too.

However, with the expectations, people are going to be disappointed if he doesn’t have a better career than P. Kane. In fact, people think he should be a top 10 player in the NHL next year.

People are also acting like Marner was a scrub in junior or something. Marner put up 2PPG in his draft season, then he put up even better numbers in his draft +1 season and had one of the best memorial cups of all-time. Now, 7 years after that, in his prime, people are arguing Bedard is going to step in and be a better player than Marner next year, it’s some pretty wild projections.

That’s similar to saying that Bedard as a rookie is going to be better than Auston Matthews next season (who Marner is currently outplaying). Can it happen? Sure, but it’s really rare.

I was on this same board a few years ago telling people Lafreniere wasn’t going to be a superstar as soon as he enters the NHL, and people were arguing the same thing with him. This is like the 5th player this board has already anointed one of the best players in the world before playing in the NHL. Bedard is the hardest for me to compare because undersized players that usually shine in junior usually have a much harder time adjusting to the NHL.

Who’s the best 5’10 or smaller player? Probably P. Kane? He had the same numbers in the OHL, no one would say he was a top 10 player as a rookie.

 

[koyvoo]

Kane’s team was very good, and he played with Kostitsyn and Gagner.

Bedard’s team is awful and he plays with scrubs.

 

[ponder]

Kane’s team was very good, and he played with Kostitsyn and Gagner.

Bedard’s team is awful and he plays with scrubs.

Regina are flawed defensively, but they’ve got some decent high end talent - they’re passable offensively without Bedard, and excellent offensively with him. Howe, Svozil and Suzdalev aren’t scrubs.

It’s definitely a worse supporting cast than Kane had, by quite a good margin, but you’re exaggerating here.

 

[Divine]

Kane’s team was very good, and he played with Kostitsyn and Gagner.

Bedard’s team is awful and he plays with scrubs.

I think it’s pretty fair to say Kane played with scrubs too. None of those players amounted to much.

McDavid played with D. Strome and DeBrincat and he didn’t have a hard time because of it.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think it’s pretty fair to say Kane played with scrubs too. None of those players amounted to much.

McDavid played with D. Strome and DeBrincat and he didn’t have a hard time because of it.

He played with Sam Gagner who has over 500 NHL points, and was a 6th overall pick.

Bedard has almost a 60 point lead over his next highest scoring teammate. Kane had a 14 point lead over his.

Also to compare teams, the current Regina Pats are 4th in their own division, where as Kane's London Knights were first in the entire OHL.

 

[Half Clapper]

Regina are flawed defensively, but they’ve got some decent high end talent - they’re passable offensively without Bedard, and excellent offensively with him. Howe, Svozil and Suzdalev aren’t scrubs.

It’s definitely a worse supporting cast than Kane had, by quite a good margin, but you’re exaggerating here.

Add Svozil to that list, who is a really good puck moving D-man. The guy has 67 assists for christ sake. He also played well for the Czech's at the world juniors.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

I think it’s pretty fair to say Kane played with scrubs too. None of those players amounted to much.

McDavid played with D. Strome and DeBrincat and he didn’t have a hard time because of it.

Wh..what?? They weren't NHL superstars but Gagner has over 1000 NHL games and Kostitsyn topped out as a 50 pt player in the NHL and lead the preds in scoring one year. What percentage of CHL players so you think come even close to that? 1 percent maybe ?

 

[daver]

The thing is though, ironically he’s putting up a similar draft season to Patrick Kane, who’s his closest comparable when it comes to size and play style.

Kane had 58GP - 62G - 83A - 145P
Bedard has 55GP - 70G - 71A -141P

Their seasons are actually quite similar, and their style of play is actually the most similar of any NHL/prospect. They’re even the same size too.

However, with the expectations, people are going to be disappointed if he doesn’t have a better career than P. Kane. In fact, people think he should be a top 10 player in the NHL next year.

People are also acting like Marner was a scrub in junior or something. Marner put up 2PPG in his draft season, then he put up even better numbers in his draft +1 season and had one of the best memorial cups of all-time. Now, 7 years after that, in his prime, people are arguing Bedard is going to step in and be a better player than Marner next year, it’s some pretty wild projections.

That’s similar to saying that Bedard as a rookie is going to be better than Auston Matthews next season (who Marner is currently outplaying). Can it happen? Sure, but it’s really rare.

I was on this same board a few years ago telling people Lafreniere wasn’t going to be a superstar as soon as he enters the NHL, and people were arguing the same thing with him. This is like the 5th player this board has already anointed one of the best players in the world before playing in the NHL. Bedard is the hardest for me to compare because undersized players that usually shine in junior usually have a much harder time adjusting to the NHL.

Who’s the best 5’10 or smaller player? Probably P. Kane? He had the same numbers in the OHL, no one would say he was a top 10 player as a rookie

Bedard is as close to Crosby physically as a prospect as he is to Kane. He is also 8 months younger.
He also is having a clearly superior season to Kane's.

Kane is not a comparable. Comparing raw numbers from different leagues 15 years apart makes no sense.

 

[daver]

That's the issue with stat watching, it doesn't tell why his numbers look good.

Take last night for example. He had 1g, 1a so must've been a great game? No, he looked exhausted because he just played his third game in three days and was far from dominant. It was the worst I've ever seen him play, he had about 3-4 plays during the game where he looked dangerous and had multiple awful giveaways that lead near goals against.

He's going to be a great player but he's not a finished package yet and it's silly to expect him not to take a bit of time to adapt to the next level.

Caufield is a good comparable for development path, Bedard is better of course. Smaller guy without huge top line speed but fantastic pick skills, took an extra couple years to hit his full ability and become elusive enough to be a top player.

Bedard is a flawed player, he's 17. He's not going to be a 100 player next year.

Why? Crosby and McDavid were Top 10 in their rookies years.

Not sure why people are trying to fit a clearly generational prospect who is only clearly bettered by Wayne and Mario into these "comparables" that make no sense.

 

[Half Clapper]

Bedard is as close to Crosby physically as a prospect as he is to Kane. He is also 8 months younger.
He also is having a clearly superior season to Kane's.

Kane is not a comparable. Comparing raw numbers from different leagues 15 years apart makes no sense.

Kane is a great comparable actually. Have you ever seen Bedard play live?

 

[daver]

Kane is a great comparable actually. Have you ever seen Bedard play live?

If you are talking stylistically, sure. Among others. But he was better than Kane at the same age. That is not a comparable.

Crosby and McDavid are his comparables when talking about production.

 

[Half Clapper]

If you are talking stylistically, sure. Among others. But he was better than Kane at the same age. That is not a comparable.

Crosby and McDavid are his comparables when talking about production.

Ya, I meant stylistically.

Also, based on production they're actually similar. Kane had 145 pts in 58 games. Bedard currently has 141 pts in 55 games...

 

[Divine]

Wh..what?? They weren't NHL superstars but Gagner has over 1000 NHL games and Kostitsyn topped out as a 50 pt player in the NHL and lead the preds in scoring one year. What percentage of CHL players so you think come even close to that? 1 percent maybe ?

Dylan Strome and DeBrincat were much better players.

Did that hurt McDavid's success at the NHL level because he put up similar numbers to P. Kane with a much better team?

P. Kane was arguably a better junior player than McDavid if we're following the same argument and ignoring size.

 

[daver]

Ya, I meant stylistically.

Also, based on production they're actually similar. Kane had 145 pts in 58 games. Bedard currently has 141 pts in 55 games...

Why would you think you can compare numbers from a different league and from over 16 years ago with no context?

Are you arguing that Kane was at the same level as McDavid and Crosby as a prospect?

 

[Divine]

Why would you think you can compare numbers from a different league and from over 16 years ago with no context?

Are you arguing that Kane was at the same level as McDavid and Crosby as a prospect?

The reason Kane wasn't as hyped was because of his size.

You seem to think Kane was a bad player.

If Bedard put up the exact same stats in Kane's draft year, he would be a similar prospect to Kane. The only difference is now the NHL is faster and size doesn't matter as much as it used to.

If you look at Kane's draft -1 stats, they were phenomenal also. Putting up 2PPG+ a game in your draft -1 year is crazy. Many top prospects don't even do that in their draft years.

Kane put up better numbers in the USHL before he was even draft eligible than Eichel. Was Eichel hyped up as a prospect? The difference is size. People back in the day cared a lot more about size. Size so far in the NHL still seems to matter, because it's not like smaller players are taking over the NHL now.

 

[Half Clapper]

Why would you think you can compare numbers from a different league and from over 16 years ago with no context?

Are you arguing that Kane was at the same level as McDavid and Crosby as a prospect?

A better league than the WHL. Yes, I think Kane was at that level. I mean I don't think anybody could say he didn't meet expectations either. The guy has been integral in three stanley cup championships.

 

[Craft Beer Lover]

A better league than the WHL. Yes, I think Kane was at that level. I mean I don't think anybody could say he didn't meet expectations either. The guy was integral in three stanley cup championships.

Kane is a great player, and future HOFer. A generational player like Bedard? No. I remember the 2007 draft lottery, when Chicago pulled out the win. There was some question then as to whom the first player to be drafted would be. It certainly wasn’t a layup like this year.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Dylan Strome and DeBrincat were much better players.

Did that hurt McDavid's success at the NHL level because he put up similar numbers to P. Kane with a much better team?

P. Kane was arguably a better junior player than McDavid if we're following the same argument and ignoring size.

I'm not even going to argue with you about who was a better Jr player, but calling Gagner and Kostitsyn scrubs is laughable. Gagner would step into the NHL the next year and be pretty good - he never really improved but he stayed an NHL player for 1000 games, he's also got the perfect Jr skillset and lacks pro attributes physically.

Kostitsyn was also a very skilled NHL player for a time, he left and went to have some respectable khl seasons too.

Maybe mcdavids teammates were better, but wasn't that post comparing them to bedards ? Bedard does not have those type of linemates this year.

 

[Half Clapper]

Kane is a great player, and future HOFer. A generational player like Bedard? No.

How is Bedard considered a generational player when he hasn't even stepped on NHL ice lmao. Some of the hot takes on this forum are hysterical. Bedard will be very happy if he has a career similar to Kane.

 

[Divine]

I'm not even going to argue with you about who was a better Jr player, but calling Gagner and Kostitsyn scrubs is laughable. Gagner would step into the NHL the next year and be pretty good - he never really improved but he stayed an NHL player for 1000 games, he's also got the perfect Jr skillset and lacks pro attributes physically.

Kostitsyn was also a very skilled NHL player for a time, he left and went to have some respectable khl seasons too.

Maybe mcdavids teammates were better, but wasn't that post comparing them to bedards ? Bedard does not have those type of linemates this year.

We won't know how good Bedard's teammates are until later.

Are you willing to guarantee no one on Bedard's team amounts to anything? I think people are purposely underselling Bedard's teammates here just to prop up Bedard.

The linemate argument is pointless, because if we use that argument Kane should be a better NHL player than McDavid because he put up the same numbers with weaker linemates. Also, Kane was a much better player than McDavid in their 16 and 17 year old seasons.

 

[Craft Beer Lover]

How is Bedard considered a generational player when he hasn't even stepped on NHL ice lmao. Some of the hot takes on this forum are hysterical. Bedard will be very happy if he has a career similar to Kane.

How was McDavid or Crosby considered generational players prior to their stepping on NHL ice?