C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

[La Bamba]

That's pretty ridiculous. People need to dampen their hype a bit.

well if he's the generational talent the media hypes him to be, then that should be the standard

and isn't that the whole thing about a generational talent? "ridiculous?"

 

[Just Linda]

well if he's the generational talent the media hypes him to be, then that should be the standard

and isn't that the whole thing about a generational talent? "ridiculous?"

2 things can be true at once.

He's a potential generational prospect not a current generational NHL player.

Give him time and patience.

Edit: clarified

 

[Deleted member 339941]

 

[Just Linda]

Shit. I take a kid to the bathroom for 2 minutes and miss the 70th goal.

 

[Mr Buckles]

And he just scored #70 - has he added a one-timer to his arsenal?

 

[jj cale]

And just potted a goal to go with it.

 

[La Bamba]

2 things can be true at once.

He's a potential generational prospect not a current generational NHL player.

Give him time and patience.

Edit: clarified

Marner is a current generational NHL player? oh boy..

 

[Just Linda]

Marner is a current generational NHL player? oh boy..

No. Not even close to what I meant.

 

[Mr Buckles]

So up to 141 points with 2 games in hand.

For comparison, Patrick Kane ended up with 145 in 58 games in 2006-07.

 

[Divine]

He's probably better than Marner right now

IIRC, Stamkos said that McDavid was better than him while he was a prospect and McDavid stepped in and finished #3 in points-per-game as a rookie

If he lives up to the hype like McDavid, Bedard is a 100 point rookie in this high scoring environment

So you’re saying he’s much better than McDavid was as a rookie?

Marner right now is a 100+ point two way player who kills penalties. Saying Bedard is better right now would mean he would step into the league and put up 105+ points as a rookie while on the PK.

McDavid was on pace for 87 points as a rookie, and I highly doubt he would have hit that because the NHL plays way more games than junior and fatigue would set in for a first year rookie.

Marner was ranked the #1 RW (first team) in the NHL two or 3 years in a row.

It would be disappointing if he wasn’t better than Marner in his career, but as a rookie? That’s a Gretzky level player, much higher than McDavid was.

If he comes into the league and is better than Marner in his rookie season, he would probably be better than McDavid in year 2. Is it possible? Yeah, but we’re talking the greatest player of all time territory if he’s that good at 18, not top 5/6 like McDavid, the greatest of all time.

 

[BB88]

He’s not even close to being better today than a 100 point player.

But he should be by year 2 based on hype

 

[cupface52]

So you’re saying he’s much better than McDavid was as a rookie?

Marner right now is a 100+ point two way player who kills penalties. Saying Bedard is better right now would mean he would step into the league and put up 105+ points as a rookie while on the PK.

McDavid was on pace for 87 points as a rookie, and I highly doubt he would have hit that because the NHL plays way more games than junior and fatigue would set in for a first year rookie.

Marner was ranked the #1 RW (first team) in the NHL two or 3 years in a row.

It would be disappointing if he wasn’t better than Marner in his career, but as a rookie? That’s a Gretzky level player, much higher than McDavid was.

If he comes into the league and is better than Marner in his rookie season, he would probably be better than McDavid in year 2. Is it possible? Yeah, but we’re talking the greatest player of all time territory if he’s that good at 18, not top 5/6 like McDavid, the greatest of all time.

McDavid was on pace to finish 3rd in overall scoring with 87 points, last year that would have placed him 17th. 100 points would have Bedard finishing 9th, going by last year's scoring.

15-16, McDavid rookie year, was the lowest scoring year post lockout, while last year was the highest.

 

[Divine]

McDavid was on pace to finish 3rd in overall scoring with 87 points, last year that would have placed him 17th. 100 points would have Bedard finishing 9th, going by last year's scoring.

15-16, McDavid rookie year, was the lowest scoring year post lockout, while last year was the highest.

Not everyone leading the scoring finished with 82GP, like you’re pacing with McDavid for 87 points. If you count for pace, McDavid was much lower. Unfair to count only the pace of some players and the absolute total of other players who didn’t play 82 games either.

Also, as we know, it’s usually easier to pick up points at the beginning when you’re fresh than at the end.

McDavid would pace for 150+ points for 3 years in a row now but never hit it yet. If you look at pace, then players like Matthews could have won the Art Ross last year over McDavid, he’d at least be guaranteed to finish 2nd and he played 73, not 45.

 

[La Bamba]

So you’re saying he’s much better than McDavid was as a rookie?

Marner right now is a 100+ point two way player who kills penalties. Saying Bedard is better right now would mean he would step into the league and put up 105+ points as a rookie while on the PK.

McDavid was on pace for 87 points as a rookie, and I highly doubt he would have hit that because the NHL plays way more games than junior and fatigue would set in for a first year rookie.

Marner was ranked the #1 RW (first team) in the NHL two or 3 years in a row.

It would be disappointing if he wasn’t better than Marner in his career, but as a rookie? That’s a Gretzky level player, much higher than McDavid was.

If he comes into the league and is better than Marner in his rookie season, he would probably be better than McDavid in year 2. Is it possible? Yeah, but we’re talking the greatest player of all time territory if he’s that good at 18, not top 5/6 like McDavid, the greatest of all time.

Not everyone leading the scoring finished with 82GP, like you’re pacing with McDavid for 87 points. If you count for pace, McDavid was much lower. Unfair to count only the pace of some players and the absolute total of other players who didn’t play 82 games either.

Also, as we know, it’s usually easier to pick up points at the beginning when you’re fresh than at the end.

McDavid would pace for 150+ points for 3 years in a row now but never hit it yet. If you look at pace, then players like Matthews could have won the Art Ross last year over McDavid, he’d at least be guaranteed to finish 2nd and he played 73, not 45.

so you say it's not fair to use 'on pace' but call Marner a 100+ player when he's never hit 100 before

also i don't know where you went to school but Matthews' PPG was not higher than McDavid's last year

no offence, but your argument and posts are painful lol

 

[JeffroTullison]

how does he compares with josh ho sang

 

[cupface52]

Not everyone leading the scoring finished with 82GP, like you’re pacing with McDavid for 87 points. If you count for pace, McDavid was much lower. Unfair to count only the pace of some players and the absolute total of other players who didn’t play 82 games either.

Also, as we know, it’s usually easier to pick up points at the beginning when you’re fresh than at the end.

McDavid would pace for 150+ points for 3 years in a row now but never hit it yet. If you look at pace, then players like Matthews could have won the Art Ross last year over McDavid, he’d at least be guaranteed to finish 2nd and he played 73, not 45.

Ok, McDavid was 3rd in ppg on the season. If you want to just include games from when he came back from injury for everyone, roughly 32 games, he was 5th in ppg during that time span. Not all teams played the same amount of games, so not fair to look at raw totals here.

A 100 point pace for Bedard last year would have put him in at 17th in ppg pace. This now makes 100 point ask of Bedard look more realistic then it did before tbh.

Regardless, you're arguing the completely wrong point here. Had McDavid maintained his pace of 87 points his rookie year, it would have been a much bigger achievement than scoring 100 points last year. I'm using last year because I'm under the assumption that scoring will be very similar next year.

Mcdavid not only led league scoring, but also ppg, Matthews was third.

 

[Fraser28]

Guys, come on. It’s not fair to expect rookie Bedard to step in and be better than prime Marner.

 

[Deleted member 339941]

 

[Bubbles]

Tavares scored 72 in his 16 year old season.

 

[ViD]

How could you say no to this?

 

[Fraser28]

I think the lottery should choose two teams, and they then play one game; winner gets Bedard. Then it at least feels partially earned

 

[Mr Buckles]

Tavares scored 72 in his 16 year old season.

Shhhhhh!

I see that Regina secured a playoff spot. What are the chances he rests before the playoffs?

 

[Divine]

so you say it's not fair to use 'on pace' but call Marner a 100+ player when he's never hit 100 before

also i don't know where you went to school but Matthews' PPG was not higher than McDavid's last year

no offence, but your argument and posts are painful lol

I called Marner a 100 point player because he hit 97 in 72 games last season and I rounded up.


Okay fine, 97 point player. Happy? It’s easier to say 100 when the player is a few points away despite missing 10 games.

You don’t understand my posts at all. Did I call McDavid a 48 point player in his rookie season?

I’m saying you can’t use pace over half a season and extrapolate over a full season. This is called the sample size bias, it’s very commonly understood, aside from maybe you.

Yes, it is NOT fair to use on pace for when a player misses over 45% of the season. If they miss a few, that's fine. McDavid played 54% of the season as a rookie, and he came from a league that never plays 82 games so to assume McDavid was going to become third in the NHL in scoring in his rookie season isn't accurate.

If Bedard comes into the league and is on the PP + PK, and becomes a 100 point player in his rookie season as you said, he is a better rookie than McDavid was. That's not debateable. He would arguably be in contention for the greatest (18 year old) rookie season of all time, and if he progresses like players usually do, he would arguably be the greatest player of all time. That's quite the expectation.

If Bedard ends up worse than Marner, it would be a disappointment. If Bedard as a rookie is better than Marner and puts up 100 points + PK's, then that's a better rookie season than McDavid had, it's not even debateable.

McDavid didn't put up 50 points as a rookie, Bedard would double that. McDavid barely hit 100 points in his second year, it took him until the last game of the season I believe on an empty net.

Your entire premise is that Bedard should be a better rookie than Crosby and McDavid were, which is quite the projection. It's much more likely he hits 70 points than 100 points in my opinion. He's undersized. The closest comparable to his size coming out of junior was Patrick Kane, who hit 72 in his rookie season.

 

[Divine]

Ok, McDavid was 3rd in ppg on the season. If you want to just include games from when he came back from injury for everyone, roughly 32 games, he was 5th in ppg during that time span. Not all teams played the same amount of games, so not fair to look at raw totals here.

A 100 point pace for Bedard last year would have put him in at 17th in ppg pace. This now makes 100 point ask of Bedard look more realistic then it did before tbh.

Regardless, you're arguing the completely wrong point here. Had McDavid maintained his pace of 87 points his rookie year, it would have been a much bigger achievement than scoring 100 points last year. I'm using last year because I'm under the assumption that scoring will be very similar next year.

Mcdavid not only led league scoring, but also ppg, Matthews was third.

Yes, but my argument is it's unlikely McDavid finishes with 87 points coming out of junior because they don't play 82 games in junior. It's very likely fatigue catches up to a player who's coming from a league that plays under 60 games.

Let's say Bedard finishes top 5 in scoring, it's a better rookie season than Crosby and McDavid. Is it fair to expect that?

Could it happen? Sure - but will it happen? Unlikely.

To say Bedard is going to join the league and be a top 10 player in the league in their rookie season is unreasonable. I'm saying top 10 and not 100 points because the poster specifically said he would be better as a rookie than Marner is today, who the NHL has rated #1 RW (first team) for multiple seasons in a row.

Will he have top 10 potential? Of course, he has that today. I mean, forget age, would I bet he would be a top 10 player in the NHL at 5'10 at 18? No.

 

[Fraser28]

Shhhhhh!

I see that Regina secured a playoff spot. What are the chances he rests before the playoffs?

Zero percent chance.