C Brett Leason - Prince Albert Raiders, WHL (2019, 56th, WSH)
- Thread starter Kshahdoo
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If I'd think of a similar situation, I'd say Tanner Pearson.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
There are legitimate questions to ask why Leason should be a high pick, such as:
1) Why did it take him a third season to become an elite player?
2) Is PA an elite team because of Leason or is Leason an elite player because of PA?
3) Why will he be the exception and become a projected top-6 NHL player to be drafted in his final year of eligibility?
4) The 1998s to 2000s weren't strong for the WHL, so is he taking advantage of one of the worst WHL prospect crops of all time?
5) Is he going to slow down as he bulks up?
Lots of kids put up impressive stats. I don't think they matter at this point. If you watch the kid play, he does a lot of things prospects his size rarely do. I think he'd still get attention if he put up 30 points in 28 games instead of 60 or whatever.
To me, there's no reason why he can't succeed in the NHL. His hands, vision, shot and smarts are too good to ignore, and in a 6'4 frame no less.
I just don't know if I'm using a 1st rounder on him in the deepest center draft in several years. Morgan Geekie is a good example of a player who developed into an elite WHL prospect, and he was a 3rd rounder in his first draft overage year. At the same time, I have a feeling certain teams are in love with him.
1) Why did it take him a third season to become an elite player?
2) Is PA an elite team because of Leason or is Leason an elite player because of PA?
3) Why will he be the exception and become a projected top-6 NHL player to be drafted in his final year of eligibility?
4) The 1998s to 2000s weren't strong for the WHL, so is he taking advantage of one of the worst WHL prospect crops of all time?
5) Is he going to slow down as he bulks up?
Lots of kids put up impressive stats. I don't think they matter at this point. If you watch the kid play, he does a lot of things prospects his size rarely do. I think he'd still get attention if he put up 30 points in 28 games instead of 60 or whatever.
To me, there's no reason why he can't succeed in the NHL. His hands, vision, shot and smarts are too good to ignore, and in a 6'4 frame no less.
I just don't know if I'm using a 1st rounder on him in the deepest center draft in several years. Morgan Geekie is a good example of a player who developed into an elite WHL prospect, and he was a 3rd rounder in his first draft overage year. At the same time, I have a feeling certain teams are in love with him.
Why not though? If a team had selected him late 1st round last year they'd be thrilled with his progress. If a team had gambled on him as a late pick in 2017 or 2018 they'd be calling him the steal of the draft and he would be going 1st round in a re-draft.
Geekie was another guy who greatly improved his draft stock in his 19YR old season, but he put up 90P in 72GP that year. Leason has over 2 PPG, has twice as many points as the 2nd leading scorer on his team, and has the physical tools teams drool over.
I'd be thrilled if my team got him in the late 1st.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
You’re assuming Leason would have the same season in 2019 if he was picked last year. That’s my point — do NHL teams view him as a kid who is doing really well just to get drafted ie. the stars are aligning, or was he a late bloomer who needed two average years to finally reach peak performance?
Again, tough questions for the guys that make the big bucks. Personally, I roll the dice and see if he’s there in the 2nd or 3rd than roll the dice and use a first on him over a kid two years younger and equally as impressive and with similar upside.
Baby Pettersson
Moderator
Has a player ever slipped through 2 drafts then got selected in the first round of their 3rd draft?
Josepho
i want the bartkowski thread back
Tanner Pearson.
But Leason is having a far more impressive year than Pearson did.
Peasy
Registered User
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Pearson in 2012, which was a brutal draft year for forwards and loaded with defensemen. He was never rated by CSB in either 2010 or 2011, then was 25th NA in his final draft year.
He led Barrie in scoring and was third in the OHL, so almost identical situation to Leason.
Absolutely astounding, that he has almost as many goals as the 2nd on the team has points.
I don't know if he has the same season this year if he was drafted in 2018. Probably worked really hard over the summer to prove everyone wrong, but I don't think it matters all that much now.
There's no question that there are plenty of 17 and 18YR old draft eligibles more impressive than Leason at the same age, but you can't expect those players to be as good as Leason at 19. You could hope that is the case, but I don't think it's reasonable given that Leason is averaged over 2 points per game, something only a handful of CHLers are able to do in a given year.
I consider getting to draft Leason at 19 a plus. You're getting to skip two development years, and there's less bust potential given that he's already proven himself to be an elite scorer in the WHL. That's certainly worth something. Why roll the dice hoping a 17YR old can dominate the WHL at 19 when you can draft a kid who's already that player?
I think, bad 17 yo season and great 19 yo season is better, than great 17 yo and bad 19 yo ones...
Artorius Horus T
sincerety
Killerjas
Registered User
A 1st rounder for an "one season wonder" overager is absurd. Yes he is good, but not 1st rounder good. Only projection: 2nd or 3rd rounder.
Conor Garland at eliteprospects.com
Simon Gamache at eliteprospects.com
Ramzi Abid at eliteprospects.com
Dominic Forget at eliteprospects.com
Brendan Shinnimin at eliteprospects.com
Corey Locke at eliteprospects.com
Rob Schremp at eliteprospects.com
Matt Foy at eliteprospects.com
It's special, but it's not a guarantee of success. He may be worth a late 1st, but he may also be very dissapointing in the pros. That danger is what may make team hesitant to pick him early.
Tbh, none of those are really good comparables, except Garland maybe.
1. 80% of those happened over a decade ago.
2. How many of those players are 5"10 or shorter?
3. How many of them nearly doubled their linemates' production?
Peasy
Registered User
Durzi went in the second round last year. Leason is a much better prospect. He will go early second/late first.
Considering this thread Brendan Shinnimin Toast Crunch!, Shinnimin was a part of the line, all players of which had great statistic, and two of them were 20 yo. So they were 1 year older, than Leason. Garland is still young and hasn't played a single NHL game so far, so who knows... All others played during a different era.
Tanner Pearson went in the first round as an overager and became a fine NHL player. Leason is tracking much better than Pearson. Borgstrom was also an overager who went in the first that is tracking very well.
thrillhous
Registered User
- Jan 5, 2006
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You guys are acting like a late 1st is a sure thing to be a NHL'er of import, when it's anything but.
Artorius Horus T
sincerety
What exactly do you consider “modern-day” because Ehlers, Kyrou, Perron and Drouin have all had 29+ game streaks since the 2012/13 season.
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