It's a big jump, but prior history does matter when factoring into future success. You can't fully accept the immediate at face-value. It would like putting Scott against Dipietro right now. If he finished the year at this pace, it would be insane, but when you age and league adjust stats, he may fall behind people like Dach, Kaliyev and Suzuki. Not that stats are the be and end all, you need to evaluate on-ice heavily. Krebs, Cozens and Dach having a very strong 2 years relative to age is big.What happened in the past is meaningless because there has simply never been a guy who has come from nowhere like this to dominate to this extent. And is 6-4 and can skate.
I would not be shocked to see him go in the top 10-12 picks of the draft. There will be teams who think they can plug this player straight into their top-6 next season.
And I would have him ahead of Krebs and would think about Cozens but not Dach.
This is a really, really unusual case and there isn't a roadmap for how it will play out.