so, lets say matthews puts up 10 points this year, does he drop at all, and if he does, how far? i dont expect no nick ebert
I'm gonna be straight up honest, I don't think Matthews is putting up less than a 0.5 PPG pace. He's that good.
Marc Crawford seems excited enough that Matthews should get every opportunity to carve a spot for himself in the top 6 and on one of the PP units. And Matthews has the skill to score, especially in controlled situations like a 5-on-4 where he'd be an excellent pseudo-QB along the half-boards/faceoff dots with his vision and hands.
Even 10 points in say 40-ish games is pretty good in the NLA for a draft-eligible player, but that tends to happen because the young kids get stapled to the bench in favour of veteran players. Matthews would have to be the 13th forward with spot time on the powerplay to just barely top 2 digits.
If it does happen, I think he drops depending on the circumstances. If it comes out that he's a cancer (slim to none, and slim just left town) then yes he's a no-draft on just about every list. If it's just because he's not getting minutes, I think he stays in the 1st round. If it's because he's underperforming, I think that's where he slides in that mid-2nd range. He's got too much raw potential to slide further than that IMO, someone would take a chance and hope he'd rediscover his scoring touch.
The Swiss league has never had an 18 to 19 year old player of this caliber. Ever. It's hard to compare his production to other Swiss prospects because of the circumstances and the sheer difference in hype and talent. And it's a huge gap between Matthews and the best Swiss prospects of all time, considering he'd be going up against the likes of Nino Niederreiter, Sven Baertschi, Michel Riesen, Luca Cereda, Tim Ramholt, Roman Josi, Tim Bozon, and Mirco Mueller. No offense to those players, but Matthews is on another level as far as prospect hype goes (and half of them didn't even play in the Swiss league during their draft year, making it even harder to compare).
The best young Swiss players that stayed in Switzerland in the last few years number just a handful, and get very little ice time to prove themselves. It'd be hard to judge what he does because guys like Denis Malgin and Auguste Impose were fighting uphill battles just to remain in the top division.
His biggest adjustment is going to be things that he would have needed to do to stick in the NHL, so I can see his reasons for wanting to play in Switzerland. The wider ice makes it harder for him to get to the net off the boards with subpar skating, meaning he needs to improve his overall skating to be able to get quality chances. He also needs to be able to position himself better in all three zones, as the wider ice gives opposing players more space to make plays.
Both are skills he would have needed anyways in order to get minutes in the NHL. Not only does he get more practice time (due to easier travel schedules) but he's playing against better competition than he would have faced in juniors, and will get a fair shake at being an impact player on a championship contender. And Marc Crawford said somewhere about having at least 2 sessions a week of just pure skill development, which is better for Matthews in the long run than having to play a CHL schedule going across 4 provinces and 2 states.
Not saying the CHL is bad, but in this case he has solid justification for wanting to play in Europe. His case is very unique given his age/birthdate and skill level.