C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) II

[cagney]

The reality is this is a major risk. If he struggles, there's no telling what will happen to his draft stock. As far as long term development goes, this is a pretty crucial year and the NLA is not an NHL development league so it's anyone's guess as to just what kind of player he'll be at the beginning of the 2016 season.

If it turns into a "lost" season that doesn't necessarily mean he can't turn things around in the future but I'd really prefer that one of the top US forward prospects in years weren't essentially a guinea pig in a lab. I understand his reasons but I still wish it had been possible for him to play for a strong NCAA or CHL team rather than taking this kind of risk.

 

[Marshal Rochambeau]

I'm not surprised the North Americans here dreaded this possibility since this superiority complex has existed since we won WW2. Despite the fact that Europe is not America, non-Americans do have the ability to teach a player how to get better at hockey.

 

[shelf]

...who was made a scratch because of his defensive liability one might add

Well its not like these guys went to go play in Switzerland because they were too good for the NHL.

 

[cagney]

I'm not surprised the North Americans here dreaded this possibility since this superiority complex has existed since we won WW2. Despite the fact that Europe is not America, non-Americans do have the ability to teach a player how to get better at hockey.

A North American hockey prospect heading to Switzerland is like a European soccer prospect heading to North America. Nobody in Europe would approve of such a decision.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

A North American hockey prospect heading to Switzerland is like a European soccer prospect heading to North America. Nobody in Europe would approve of such a decision.

It's different though because of how the NHL works with age limits and the draft.

If this was soccer Matthews would already be playing for a large market NHL team.

If the Liga, EPL, etc. all had a mandatory age limit and Martin Odegaard signed with NYC or LA, nobody would care because they would realize he is only getting paid earlier before coming back to Europe.

 

[IHaveNoCreativity]

I'm very excited to see this !

 

[VictorLustig]

The reality is this is a major risk. If he struggles, there's no telling what will happen to his draft stock. As far as long term development goes, this is a pretty crucial year and the NLA is not an NHL development league so it's anyone's guess as to just what kind of player he'll be at the beginning of the 2016 season.

If it turns into a "lost" season that doesn't necessarily mean he can't turn things around in the future but I'd really prefer that one of the top US forward prospects in years weren't essentially a guinea pig in a lab. I understand his reasons but I still wish it had been possible for him to play for a strong NCAA or CHL team rather than taking this kind of risk.

I don't see the risk. He's going in to the season as the clear #1 player and now he gets to play in a league where he doesn't have to be compared to other prospects. Maybe he won't dominate, but he won't struggle.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The reality is this is a major risk. If he struggles, there's no telling what will happen to his draft stock. As far as long term development goes, this is a pretty crucial year and the NLA is not an NHL development league so it's anyone's guess as to just what kind of player he'll be at the beginning of the 2016 season.

If it turns into a "lost" season that doesn't necessarily mean he can't turn things around in the future but I'd really prefer that one of the top US forward prospects in years weren't essentially a guinea pig in a lab. I understand his reasons but I still wish it had been possible for him to play for a strong NCAA or CHL team rather than taking this kind of risk.

I don't see the risk. So what if it hurts his draft stock? He's still a lock to go top 5.

Now if it actually harms his development, you could say that is a concern. But I fail to see the risk there as well, there's nothing for him to learn or prove in junior hockey.

 

[cagney]

If you want to take the view that draft stock is irrelevant that's fine. Players prove this all the time over the years when they slip for one reason or another and go on to become great players.

I still strongly believe that there's a risk associated with moving overseas to a different culture and a hockey system that's not designed for the development of NHL players. Nobody can predict how this will work out and it's not impossible it could set him back in the worst case scenario. We'll see in time.

 

[covfefe]

If you want to take the view that draft stock is irrelevant that's fine. Players prove this all the time over the years when they slip for one reason or another and go on to become great players.

I still strongly believe that there's a risk associated with moving overseas to a different culture and a hockey system that's not designed for the development of NHL players. Nobody can predict how this will work out and it's not impossible it could set him back in the worst case scenario. We'll see in time.

Considering that the overwhelming majority of players who set foot in CHL/USHL/NCAA rinks never sniff the pro ranks, it seems a bit of a stretch to suggest these leagues are designed 'for the development of NHL players.'

 

[ponder]

I don't see it as too much of a risk:

• He's a lock to go top 5 no matter what, and should still have a very good shot at 1st overall
• He's very old for his draft year (2 days from the cutoff for the 2015 draft), already completely dominant with the NTDP, and very mature physically, I personally think playing against men will be best for his development (especially for an ex-NHL coach like Crawford)
• As others have noted, he gets to spend a year making $400K in Zurich, vs. little to no salary in (probably) Everett

The last point especially is pretty big - this guy is going to spend a long time in the NHL, this is his last chance for a long while to do a year abroad, why not take it and go for an adventure, with a fat salary to boot?

Yes, he'll be harder for scouts to judge due to how novel his path is - if he puts up, say, 0.8 PPG in the NLA, is that good for a potential 1st overall pick? Bad? Nobody knows! Contrast this with the CHL, where we know ~1.5 PPG is weak for a 1st overall pick, ~1.8 PPG is solid, ~2 PPG is great and ~2.5 PPG is insanely good. Matthews is a bit of a trail blazer, which is going to make him hard to judge due to a lack of historical context. However, his talent is clearly enough for him to go really high, so I don't think the uncertainty hurts his draft stock much. Teams may be a little less confident taking him 1st overall out of the NLA than they would be if he went to Everett and put up 1.7 - 2 PPG, but they'll still take him very high regardless.

 

[cagney]

Considering that the overwhelming majority of players who set foot in CHL/USHL/NCAA rinks never sniff the pro ranks, it seems a bit of a stretch to suggest these leagues are designed 'for the development of NHL players.'

Players who were developed in those leagues make up the majority of the NHL. You could count on one hand the number of NHL players whose primary development took place in the NLA and have fingers to spare.

 

[Dod93Cityt]

No and yes. NLA isn't bush league, he can consider it an achievement if he's top 6 in scoring on his team.

It depends on how much PP time he gets and what linemates he gets. I would say if he can crack into top5 scoring on team it is success for him.

Thanks for the replies, I never know whats happening in the NLA.

 

[Dod93Cityt]

4 over PPG? I had no idea

I've never paid attention to the NLA, but yeah, now my other comment seems a bit too much now.

 

[Menzinger]

The reality is this is a major risk. If he struggles, there's no telling what will happen to his draft stock. As far as long term development goes, this is a pretty crucial year and the NLA is not an NHL development league so it's anyone's guess as to just what kind of player he'll be at the beginning of the 2016 season.

If it turns into a "lost" season that doesn't necessarily mean he can't turn things around in the future but I'd really prefer that one of the top US forward prospects in years weren't essentially a guinea pig in a lab. I understand his reasons but I still wish it had been possible for him to play for a strong NCAA or CHL team rather than taking this kind of risk.

It really doesn't matter to the player if he's drafted 1st overall or 95th , other than bragging rights.

I think he'll be fine long term, even if this season involves a but of struggling.

 

[AD1066]

^ Courtesy of Huffman in the Lake Placid thread

 

[Finnish your Czech]

It's probably been answered but why didn't he go play somewhere else in Europe like sweden/finland? The leagues are easily better, no?

It shouldn't really matter if the league's better. It's not like Matthews will be dominating the NLA.

 

[Plub]

It shouldn't really matter if the league's better. It's not like Matthews will be dominating the NLA.

And if he does?

 

[BigBuck]

He missed this years NHL draft by a couple of days,He would have gone top 3 and been in the NHL playing this year.....How can playing in a weaker league then the NHL do him any harm?

 

[Ryker]

And if he does?

Then he will still have made a good choice, because those two leagues aren't considerably better. And he will finish the season dominating a men's league that is better than any of the leagues he would have played in had he stayed in North America.

He's not going to dominate, though, let's not kid ourselves here. I mean, sure, there's a chance he will, but I'd put that chance lower than the Coyotes winning the Stanley Cup. Here, I really do think the only people that think that chance is reasonable are the ones who don't know anything about the NLA. I will, of course, eat my words if I am shown to be wrong come next year.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Good for him. Getting 400k and being in Zurich?

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Good for him. Getting 400k and being in Zurich?

Yeah, I'd take that any day of the week as an 18 year old. Or now, for that matter. Hah.

 

[Bouma Fett*]

Yeah, I'd take that any day of the week as an 18 year old. Or now, for that matter. Hah.

Exactly. Living in Zurich making good money at 18 years old sounds good to me. I'd kill to have done that.

 

[snizzbone*]

How much are people expecting him to produce in the NLA? Over PPG? Is leading his team in scoring too high of an expectation?

To put some things in perspective for NLA scoring, like someone said, only 4 players over a ppg last year.

During the lockout year when loads of NHLers went over, this is how they faired:

Seguin - 40 points in 29 games
Bergeron - 29 points in 21 games
Ennis 8 points in 9 games
Zetteberg 32 points in 23 games
Tavares 42 points in 28 games
Nash 18 points in 17 games
Spezza 30 points in 28 games
Thornton 36 points in 33 games
Couture 23 points in 22 games
Laich 18 points in 19 games

So I'd assume Matthews to be in the 0.5-0.75 PPG range, for that to be a good season for him.

 

[Risingwind]

I've been to Zürich on vacation and I really wouldn't mind living there. Locals said the weather is usually rainy and that it was remarkable that there happened to be a stretch of two weeks of mostly sunshine, so maybe that colored my perception a little. There're lots of decently sized hills (1500-3000 ft.) close by for heavy-duty jogging practice. The overall cleanliness everywhere was something that I noticed, and how everything just worked. The low sample size of trains were all on time and the trams are super useful for moving around the city. There's ample choice of cheese and chocolates. Matthews is even getting paid to go there. I can't find any fault in this equation.

Compared to the Finnish league, it seems to me like the NLA wasn't hit as bad by the Euro crisis. The Swiss league has more money going through it, which naturally generates good infrastructure. The point about the press leaving him alone is also a factor, but more importantly he's moving to a different country to play hockey. It's a really good opportunity to focus on nothing but what matters for his career.

I'm not too familiar with how the Swedish league works, maybe it was an option. In Finland there's only a couple teams that could conceivably take in someone like Matthews, and none of them would pay him $400k for a season. Less than $40k sounds more probable. The top franchise over here is Kärpät where he could play together with Puljujärvi, a very enticing concept I would imagine...