C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) II

[LetsGoIslanders]

I think he's getting bad advice from either his parents or an agent. They are just seeing cash up front, hence his move to Zurich. This is an ugly move, one unseen before from an NHL prospect. This makes Carl Lindros look like a parent with decent motives.

Why not allow your kid to dominate play in the CHL or NCAA with kids his age?

 

[AZviaNJ]

I think he's getting bad advice from either his parents or an agent. They are just seeing cash up front, hence his move to Zurich. This is an ugly move, one unseen before from an NHL prospect. This makes Carl Lindros look like a parent with decent motives.

Why not allow your kid to dominate play in the CHL or NCAA with kids his age?

I still haven't heard the visa outcome. I think he'll be in Everett this year, we'll find out soon.

 

[Tormentor]

He ripped up the U18's. He was in a class of his own there. Tournament MVP. Leading scorer. What's your definition of clear cut?

A clear-cut number one is someone who beyond a shadow of a doubt proves that he's the top dog, good example of this is Connor McDavid. He played two years up at the 2013 WU18C's and was just amazing. At no point after that was it in doubt that he isn't the clear-cut number one for 2015 NHL draft. Media might have tried to bring Eichel to the equation, but it was just obvious that McDavid was the superior prospect.

Matthews might have won the scoring title at the WU18C's, but 9 of his points came in 10-0 and 13-1 blow outs against Slovakia and Germany. In the remaining 5 games he had 6 points, which isn't anything to brag about considering the fact that he was surrounded by very good players and played against his own age group. Furthermore, the level of competition wasn't particularly great, for example Sweden and Canada had below average teams by their standards.

Matthews wasn't better than Puljujärvi at the World Juniors, in other words he certainly wasn't in a class of his own there. Matthews might have been slightly better than Laine and Puljujärvi at the WU18C's, but it was his 2nd tourney at that level, so he had the advantage of being both older and more experienced. Now that the new season is starting up it's obvious that Laine and Puljujärvi have caught up to Matthews and might have even overtaken him.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

A clear-cut number one is someone who beyond a shadow of a doubt proves that he's the top dog, good example of this is Connor McDavid. He played two years up at the 2013 WU18C's and was just amazing. At no point after that was it in doubt that he isn't the clear-cut number one for 2015 NHL draft. Media might have tried to bring Eichel to the equation, but it was just obvious that McDavid was the superior prospect.

Matthews might have won the scoring title at the WU18C's, but 9 of his points came in 10-0 and 13-1 blow outs against Slovakia and Germany. In the remaining 5 games he had 6 points, which isn't anything to brag about considering the fact that he was surrounded by very good players and played against his own age group. Furthermore, the level of competition wasn't particularly great, for example Sweden and Canada had below average teams by their standards.

Matthews wasn't better than Puljujärvi at the World Juniors, in other words he certainly wasn't in a class of his own there. Matthews might have been slightly better than Laine and Puljujärvi at the WU18C's, but it was his 2nd tourney at that level, so he had the advantage of being both older and more experienced. Now that the new season is starting up it's obvious that Laine and Puljujärvi have caught up to Matthews and might have even overtaken him.

Matthews was infinitely better than any player skater at the U18's.

Virtually every shift resulted in sustained pressure and quality chances. Roslovic and Tkachuk didn't even have to get open. Matthews was threading the needle while carrying defenders on his back. And it's not hyperbole. Go back and watch the replays.

Matthews is the clear cut top pick right now based on everything he's done.

 

[VictorLustig]

Seen Matthews enough to know that he's going to be a #1 center. It's gonna take a hell of a winger to be drafted ahead of him. Maybe Puljujarvi, Laine or someone else can reach that level during the season but I haven't seen it yet. For now Matthews is #1 but nobody is a lock at this stage, remember when Couturier and Larsson were miles better than everyone else a year before their draft year? Larsson ended up 4th and Couturier 7th.

 

[Tormentor]

Matthews was infinitely better than any player skater at the U18's.

The US team had such a strong flow in their game at the U18WC's that it made it easy for Matthews to showcase his talent against mostly B-class opponents. Take a look at his play at U20 level, both at World Juniors and at Lake Placid and you'll get a different picture.

Matthews is the clear cut top pick right now based on everything he's done.

Not true, based on his play at U20 level he's not better or more promising than Laine or Puljujärvi.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

The US team had such a strong flow in their game at the U18WC's that it made it easy for Matthews to showcase his talent against mostly B-class opponents. Take a look at his play at U20 level, both at World Juniors and at Lake Placid and you'll get a different picture.

Not true, based on his play at U20 level he's not better or more promising than Laine or Puljujärvi.

This is a flawed rationale. You're essentially saying that Matthews benefitted from a deep team, yet fail to acknowledge that Matthews was at the very top of the depth chart of the best team (by a mile) in the tournament.

Lake Placid is an exhibition and scrimmage. Holds absolutely no bearing on draft status unless an injury occurs there. When dealing with surefire lottery talent, U18's, U20's and league play hold far more relevance than BS summer scrimmages. The only players who benefit from the eval camps are the ones trying to make a name themselves to elevate their either non-existant or weak draft stock.

As far as the recent U20's, neither player distinguished or diminished themselves. Matthews and Puljujärvi were non-factors for their respective teams. What they do in the upcoming WJC will have more of a say.

Puljujärvi could have scored 20 goals in Lake Placid. Wouldnt have made a lick of difference. Matthews as of right now if the higher rated prospect.

 

[Tormentor]

This is a flawed rationale.

No it's not.

You're essentially saying that Matthews benefitted from a deep team, yet fail to acknowledge that Matthews was at the very top of the depth chart of the best team (by a mile) in the tournament.

Matthews was the top forward on the US U-18 team, it's obvious and I wasn't questioning that.

Lake Placid is an exhibition and scrimmage. Holds absolutely no bearing on draft status unless an injury occurs there.

It's surprising how many scouts there are in Lake Placid right now considering that it's just a scrimmage that holds absolutely no bearing on draft status.

When dealing with surefire lottery talent, U18's, U20's and league play hold far more relevance than BS summer scrimmages.

Full season of league play holds a lot of relevance, but these international events are the only occasions where players from different leagues/continents face each other and therefore they are an invaluable and irreplaceable part of scouting.

The only players who benefit from the eval camps are the ones trying to make a name themselves to elevate their either non-existant or weak draft stock.

All the eligible prospects can help their draft status by having a strong performance in Lake Placid. Even the drafted guys benefit from strong performances since it improves their chances of getting a favourable role on the WJC team. These are competitive games, pretty much everyone is trying to put their best foot forward.

Matthews as of right now if the higher rated prospect.

You might rate Matthews higher, but I don't. Get used to it. Neither of us know how the majority of real NHL scouts rate these guys right now.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

No it's not.

Matthews was the top forward on the US U-18 team, it's obvious and I wasn't questioning that.

It's surprising how many scouts there are in Lake Placid right now considering that it's just a scrimmage that holds absolutely no bearing on draft status.

Full season of league play holds a lot of relevance, but these international events are the only occasions where players from different leagues/continents face each other and therefore they are an invaluable and irreplaceable part of scouting.

All the eligible prospects can help their draft status by having a strong performance in Lake Placid. Even the drafted guys benefit from strong performances since it improves their chances of getting a favourable role on the WJC team. These are competitive games, pretty much everyone is trying to put their best foot forward.

You might rate Matthews higher, but I don't. Get used to it. Neither of us know how the majority of real NHL scouts rate these guys right now.

Please provide me with one quote from a scout or an NHL GM on or around Draft Day who specifically cited the WJC Eval Camp in their reasoning for making the pick.

The Eval Camp is EXACTLY what it says it is -- a camp. Not a game. Not a tournament. A camp.

We're talking about camp. Not the actual games. We're talking about a camp almost 12 months from when the draft occurs.

And I would agree with you on the value of international tournaments. The problem is that Lake Placid wasnt a tournament. It was a tryout camp with scrimmages. In August.

 

[YEGJuniorFan]

Does Matthews remind anyone else of Lecavalier?

 

[D0ctorCool]

I have no horse in this race, but I thought Matthews has looked better than Pulljarvi and Laine in Placid. I've caught all the games and that's just like, my opinion, man.

 

[Tormentor]

Please provide me with one quote from a scout or an NHL GM on or around Draft Day who specifically cited the WJC Eval Camp in their reasoning for making the pick.

The camp is part of a scouting process of collecting as much information about prospects as possible. One event or playoffs for example might hold more value than another, but they all are important nonetheless.

The Eval Camp is EXACTLY what it says it is -- a camp. Not a game. Not a tournament. A camp.

We're talking about camp. Not the actual games. We're talking about a camp almost 12 months from when the draft occurs.

You aren't making much sense here, there are 8 actual games played in Lake Placid.

And I would agree with you on the value of international tournaments. The problem is that Lake Placid wasnt a tournament. It was a tryout camp with scrimmages. In August.

Say what you want, but the Lake Placid camp is part of the scouting process. There aren't as many draft eligible prospects there as in Hlinka Cup for example, but it's still one of the premier pre-season events. There's a reason why a notable number of scouts go there.

 

[dwanmaster*]

You might rate Matthews higher, but I don't. Get used to it. Neither of us know how the majority of real NHL scouts rate these guys right now.

Yes we do lmao. Every list of 2016 draft rankings that has been put out has Matthews at #1

 

[Tormentor]

Yes we do lmao. Every list of 2016 draft rankings that has been put out has Matthews at #1

But those lists aren't made by real NHL scouts. Learn the difference.

 

[Juxtaposer]

But those lists aren't made by real NHL scouts. Learn the difference.

I'm sorry, but this is getting ridiculous.

 

[thomast]

I'm sorry, but this is getting ridiculous.

Why? Tormentor has reputation of being really good at evaluating prospects. He is usually holding down other finnish posters for overhyping prospects and he has passive approach when he says something about finnish prospects. He likes to play it safe. He doesen't agree with consensus so what is wrong about that?

 

[CaseyMitts37]

Please provide me with one quote from a scout or an NHL GM on or around Draft Day who specifically cited the WJC Eval Camp in their reasoning for making the pick.

The Eval Camp is EXACTLY what it says it is -- a camp. Not a game. Not a tournament. A camp.

We're talking about camp. Not the actual games. We're talking about a camp almost 12 months from when the draft occurs.

And I would agree with you on the value of international tournaments. The problem is that Lake Placid wasnt a tournament. It was a tryout camp with scrimmages. In August.

If it's "just a camp", then why would numerous GMs and scouts of NHL teams attend

Obviously, a team won't make their decision whether to draft a player based off this camp, but it is definitely a piece of the big picture

 

[cleveland408]

I think he's getting bad advice from either his parents or an agent. They are just seeing cash up front, hence his move to Zurich. This is an ugly move, one unseen before from an NHL prospect. This makes Carl Lindros look like a parent with decent motives.

Why not allow your kid to dominate play in the CHL or NCAA with kids his age?

Why play in a league where he would just dominate? He would be better off playing with men.

 

[arsmaster*]

Why play in a league where he would just dominate? He would be better off playing with men.

What first overall caliber CHLer was hurt by playing in the CHL during his draft year?

You think he's better than McDavid? Or did playing in the CHL hurt McDavid last year? I mean, you'd imagine he could have gone to europe too.

 

[Tormentor]

I'm sorry, but this is getting ridiculous.

NHL scouting departments have the money, the time, the access, the expertise and the experience to evaluate prospects. In most cases the public scouting agencies are way behind in many of these recourses. This does affect the end result.

The only thing that NHL scouting departments need to worry about is getting the prospects in the right order. Public scouting agencies are out there to make money, which in turn means that they need to please the paying customer to keep the business going. They can't have too many radical aberrations from the "public consensus" in their top-30 or their draft guides and other products won't sell as well, because an average fan starts to think that they are no good. This is another thing that affects the end result.

You can laugh all you want, but personally I don't put too much weight on public lists anymore. In this particular case the only thing I'd put some value on are the post-game reports made in Lake Placid right now. That's the only place where the truth is and we don't have access to it.

Tormentor has reputation of being really good at evaluating prospects.

I don't think that's true, in the long run I've had an equal number of misses to every hit I've had. And watching the ongoing Lake Placid camp makes it painfully obvious that I've been way too harsh on Sebastian Aho for example.

 

[UsernameWasTaken]

 

[SpaceCoyote]

This has probably been discussed on the boards somewhere already, but where do you think he would have gone this draft if he was born 3 days earlier?

 

[Plub]

I think he's getting bad advice from either his parents or an agent. They are just seeing cash up front, hence his move to Zurich. This is an ugly move, one unseen before from an NHL prospect. This makes Carl Lindros look like a parent with decent motives.

Why not allow your kid to dominate play in the CHL or NCAA with kids his age?

I don't think it is about money. I think it has to do with how close he was to being draft eligible for 2015. He barely missed the cutoff. He may see it as a poor decision to go play against CHL players that are all young when people his age and at his level of talent are playing in the NHL(Eichel/McDavid). Since he obviously can't go to the NHL, the next best thing is to play in another professional league and try to compete against adults like Eichel and McDavid will be so as to not lose a step in development to them.

Just my opinion, though.

This has probably been discussed on the boards somewhere already, but where do you think he would have gone this draft if he was born 3 days earlier?

I think he would have went 3rd. But it would have been a clear 3rd.

McDavid
Eichel
Matthews

Strome
Marner

 

[McFlyingV]

This has probably been discussed on the boards somewhere already, but where do you think he would have gone this draft if he was born 3 days earlier?

3rd after Eichel. Poor Arizona missed out on a better centre prospect because of 3 days.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Well, regardless of what went on at Lake Placid and those exhibition games, the fact is that the hype machine has been heavily churning towards Matthews for well over a year because of his play on the ice.

It is going to take any prospect, to include the two Finns, a lot more than a solid two weeks at an offseason Eval Camp to dissuade the overwhelming majority on who the preseasonn midseason and final No. 1 draft prospect should be.

Based on history, it's very difficult to see a franchise winger get chosen over a consensus franchise center (barring injury of course). Few examples like Hall over Seguin but chances are it's Matthews' top spot to lose.