FireBird71
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C Adam Fantilli - (2023, 3rd, CBJ) Part 2
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We mostly agree but you're taking issue with what I said for some reason. All I'll say is I don't see Fantilli not dominating in this tournament as a flaw. Fantilli needing work on his shot selection, decision making on the pass, wrist shot power, and positioning are flaws he needs to work on. Him not setting the World Championships on fire his first time playing against adults is not a flaw. It's a tip off to where he's at in his development. You may think he's ready to jump into the NHL, and I agree but the question is does trial by fire fuel or hamper the development of his game and his flaws? But that's not even what I'm arguing out.
Carlsson outscored Fantilli by a whopping two points at a tournament he is much better suited for than Fantilli. It matters that Carlsson has years of experience playing against adults which Fantilli never had prior to the tournament. It matters that Carlsson played with the same line for the entirety of the tournament including several exhibition pre-tourney games when Fantilli got no such benefit. It matters that Nylander and Raymond are better suited to compliment Carlsson's game while Lucic and Glass were too slow to build a good flow with Fantilli. And it matters that guys like Ovechkin only had 2 points in this tournament as an 18 year old, then went on to become stars and legends of the game.
It's a small sample and those factors matter. So no, I'm still not concerned that Fantilli didn't have higher raw numbers. I identified some deficiencies in his game that he needs to work on but am I worried that he didn't lead Canada's charge? No. Cause I still saw a lot to like about his game that makes me want Anaheim to go with him over another very good option available to them in Leo Carlsson.
When you are comparing two players projected to go 2-3, and the player ranked 3 produces more than the player ranked 2, it will cause some commotion.
I still think Fantilli goes 2, but its not as much of a slam dunk as people think
Why are you not considering Carlssons WJC where they had similar production against “tougher opponents?” Also using 1 national championship game is hardly an applicable stat to say him being throttled against tougher competition is a pattern. I’m just not seeing based off what you gave that he is that much worse against tougher competition, and I really don’t have the time to dig too deep other than what you presented.
I know you are very well versed in these things and can back up your claims, so if there’s data suggesting otherwise that you haven’t shown in this post I’ll take your word for it, but I just don’t feel convinced.
Plus, we have to give Fantilli credit for his GWG sending Canada to the gold medal game, while also taking into account Carlsson’s turnover being the play that cost Sweden a medal altogether.
Anaheim4ever
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What is interesting is HD is had been always in favor of the Ducks drafting based on 'Need' like in 2020 he wanted a goal scorer in Holtz to be Zegras linemate, then in 2021 he wanted McTavish because the need was a 2C behind Zegras and one that can Shoot hard shots. In 2023 it seems he wants another Playmaker in Carlsson (Ducks already have Zegras/Terry for playmakers) but he compares Carlsson the playmaker to McTavish.
Rabid Ranger
2 is better than one
I'm sanguine about Fantilli but I'll say that the potential downside with him is that he doesn't make for a very connective line. He's a chaotic player, with the chaos felt by both teams. Lucic and Glass are good players by World's standards.
Sure. I can see that being a possibility if he doesnt make adjustments but he got no favors being lined up with guys much slower than him. I mean I'm still crossing my fingers that Glass can have a late resurgence and be a star in this league but while there were moments he created counterproductive chaos for himself, there were others where he slowed things down when he got favorable position for a set up but his mates were behind the play a lot. Which is to say, I think Fantilli was trying to do better in his biggest problem spot, namely, that he needs to improve his team play, but his line was tailored to let him do that as well as he could have with someone like Carcone for example.
KaseMeOutside
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At the end of the day you're trying to project what they will be, not what they are now. Fantilli checks alot of boxes for me and I like what Anaheims future at center could be with him and Mctavish/Zegras
The "guys slower than him" thing is overrated, at least in the literal sense of it. Of course it's possible to have linemates that don't click but matching speed is not what's needed. Hintz doesn't need Robertson and Pavelski to skate at his speed, because they each play complementary roles on his line. One of the first players that McDavid clicked with in Edmonton was Pat Maroon. Fantilli is going to be faster than his linemates in the NHL too, finding chemistry won't be about finding fast linemates.
I understand that. My point is less about dismissing a point in his game that clearly needs improvement and more about the difference between Carlsson's situation and his. Whatever other flaws Fantilli may have, he had a number of good chances generated from him actually slowing his game down enough to identify said chance, and the puck was either mishandled by the pass recipient or they independently failed to get it themselves.
I agree that there are times he moves too fast for the play in what can be called chaos (on top of the fact that he generally needs to clean up his decision making with the puck) but it's not like every second he's on the ice that's the case and especially in this tournament you could see he was trying to be more of the set up man for his more experienced teammates than the run and gun lone wolf he was in the NCAA, but it's something he had to try to adapt to on the fly while playing against professional adults for the first time. And I don't think Glass and Lucic were the optimal line for Fantilli whether he was trying to adapt or not.
And all this is to say that Carlsson, with a line that functioned together much better, only had two additional points, and one if I recall was just a goal that bounced off his body.
That's not to diminish Carlsson at all, whoever picks him (be it Anaheim, Columbus, or San Jose) is getting an elite prospect and the best prospect those teams have had in years. I just think the production at the World Championships isn't as relevant a distinction between him and Fantilli as people are making it out to be given how many factors played into the final raw totals.
Rabid Ranger
2 is better than one
Run and gun lone wolf? What are you talking about? That's not how he played or was deployed at all at Michigan.
I'm not saying that's the role he took. I'm saying that's how he plays at times, trying to do things all by himself and not being as effective at utilizing his teammates as he could be. Run and gun was a bit overly euphemistic
MichaelFarrell
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Yeah I think this is a good take. Adam Fantilli definitely goes lone wolf at times. Don’t get me wrong, he probably had the best puck possession ability in the draft. However, he definitely underutilizes his teammates at times.
OilersFanatics505
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Yet you’ve said nothing other than stars why you’d choose one over the other. I’m starting to assume you haven’t watched a lot of these two play.
I'm a big fan of Fantilli and I hope we take him with #2, but also this (what you said).
That's why I think his offensive potential is somewhat limited but the pace he plays with is insane and I really want to look how he does in the NHL where the pace is better suited for him, it seems. In the Worlds, I thought that in the medal rounds, he started to utilize his teammates a bit more/better. In the group stage he was just going north/south, but later on he started to do some east-west thingy as well. But yeah, while he did not had the greatest linemates at all, utilizing them is something he will need to learn how to do – great players always do that.
Anaheim4ever
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He was channeling his inner Sylvester Stallone and going Rambo against the odds lol.
In EA NHL I think Fantilli will be the most fun Duck to play as in the game, that speed and shot along with his 2way ability will be a player you have fun with in all areas of the video game lol.
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
This is so selective for an NCAA sample
Scroll back in this thread to the people that guaranteed Fantilli's scoring would drop after the world juniors in the NCAA
he proceeds to put up 14 points in 6 games against............ (checks notes) all tournament teams and teams that were top 10 ranked.
goonsaredumb
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He's been trying to push this "Fantilli disappears in big games, Carlsson doesn't" narrative on the Ducks board for months now, no ones buying it and his cherry-picked stats don't help his case
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
It's weird
He played Minnesota 3x (he missed 2 games as he was in the hospital)
puts up 3 goals and 5 points 16 shots.
was the best player in that weekend series
They win 2 of those 3 games and one of those was pretty important (Big 10 championship)
They dont get past Penn State without him. Michigan didnt score a single goal in regulation until Fantilli tied it late in the 3rd period to get it to overtime. That is the epitome of scoring in a big game.
Maybe Carlsson is better, I don't know, and others can speak to that comparison and who should go higher in the draft. But I agree with you on cherry picked stats.
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Anaheim4ever
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The irony to that is that is it was Carlsson who disappeared vs Latvia in the elimination round when all the pressure was on to perform and Canada had a tie game vs Latvia where Fantilli scored the game winner to move onto the next round. That was also with having burnout snail speed Lucic attached to his line.
That said i take the tournament with a grain of salt.
Anaheim4ever
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It feels like fate that he becomes a Duck because Paul Kariya was also a Canadian who won the Hobey Baker as a rookie.
Teams wanting to trade up to #2 are doing it for Fantilli cause he has the highest odds of going #2.
Teams wanting to trade up to #2 are doing it for Fantilli cause he has the highest odds of going #2.
ValeriKamensky
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- May 8, 2013
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For me they(Fantilli and Carlsson) are absolutely on the same tier - 2nd after Bedard.
But they have fundamental difference in term of their style and things they can bring to team.
Fantilli is a goal scoring centerman, who probably will have more goals than assasts (at least 50/50). Leo will be pass-first type of player, 30+60 guy.
Which of them you should choice based just on current team needs.
If you need the Matthews-type your choice is Fantilli. If you need Backstrom with higher goal scoring abilities you should take Leo.
For me Adam is 2nd OA. But it based only on personal preferences and it doesn`t mean I rank Leo lower
But they have fundamental difference in term of their style and things they can bring to team.
Fantilli is a goal scoring centerman, who probably will have more goals than assasts (at least 50/50). Leo will be pass-first type of player, 30+60 guy.
Which of them you should choice based just on current team needs.
If you need the Matthews-type your choice is Fantilli. If you need Backstrom with higher goal scoring abilities you should take Leo.
For me Adam is 2nd OA. But it based only on personal preferences and it doesn`t mean I rank Leo lower
Anaheim4ever
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Yeah for us we have two forwards who like to pass, pass, pass and pass(Zegras, Terry) and only one guy on the roster with an elite shot (McTavish). The only forward that is a speedster on the team is Lundestrom and he's not great offensively. Fantilli gives the Ducks another shooter and a top6 forward that has elite speed.
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