Proposal: Building for 2021-2022

[Hinterland]

In my view, Columbus is a 1 or 2 Centers away from being a contender. So while losing Jones would definitely hurt, getting a true top Center or future top Center for him could actually help the team. I really think that the loss of Dubois is at least part of the reason why the Bluejackets didn't do very well this season. Not because Dubois would be this good but because the Bluejackets weren't able to replace him.

 

[Xoggz22]

Whatever happens, I hope JD puts the kibosh on this “we’ll keep him into next season and try to convince him to sign” BS that Jarmo spewed before he got here.

This I agree with. I do think they have until camp to truly make a decision. That would allow them to tend to other areas to see where this is headed but if they know he's not planning to sign, I have to believe the value is higher prior to the season than at the deadline.

 

[Xoggz22]

That doesn’t necessarily mean (and probably wouldn’t mean) we wouldn’t trade him at the deadline. (And it also doesn’t mean he wouldn't be a summer trade if the right offer comes along.) But an artificial timeline doesn’t do any good. We either are forced to trade him in the summer for what might be not as good an offer as we’d get at the deadline, or we don’t trade him in the summer (with intention to still trade him at the TDL) and it causes a huge saga and/or other GMs/agents know Jarmo’s bluffs can be called.

The message that “we’re still trying to sign him” also doesn’t deflate his value unnecessarily.

I agree with this as well, however, my concern is that the longer it goes without signing, to me, the lower his value becomes. They have to have some idea prior to the season where his head and commitment will be. I think the bigger, better deal is prior to the season than at the deadline so, again, to me, that's a better use of asset management. My hope is that he signs. I do think there is talent on this roster but as others have said, getting that high end talent comes through the draft and if that takes 2-3 years, you're starting to run into an aging top pair RHD.

As an aside, way too many variables for me to get too invested in speculation. As a season ticket holder (Day 1) I'm struggling with the idea of blowing it up to watch bad hockey and spend a lot of money for a can of magic beans. I mean Buffalo is really doing well after blowing up up right? Edmonton may be a playoff team with the best player in the world but they are a far cry from Cup contender in my opinion. Teams with high end young talent still need a solid core to achieve greatness. Devils... will they actually take a step forward 3-4 years later? Only Ottawa seems to have pulled the right strings with a potential quick turn around and still, that's only with a hot 2nd half to this year with nothign on the line for them. Detroit? Way too many teams that sell off and take a LONG time to re-build. I no longer have that level of patience with this franchise.

There were a lot of dominos that fell this year. I want to see the next 2-3 months and then I'll start to grip about the team's direction...regardless of what it is Just like the rest of you.

 

[Xoggz22]

In my view, Columbus is a 1 or 2 Centers away from being a contender. So while losing Jones would definitely hurt, getting a true top Center or future top Center for him could actually help the team. I really think that the loss of Dubois is at least part of the reason why the Bluejackets didn't do very well this season. Not because Dubois would be this good but because the Bluejackets weren't able to replace him.

REalistically the only cent the Jackets truly had was Riley Nash. Every other option was learning to play the position at the NHL level (Texier, Roslovic, Stendlund) or was thrust into a new team, new system, no introduction or connection (Domi). The loss of PLD and Koivu hurt quite a bit. The buyout of Wennberg (which I agree with given his situation in Columbus) also hurt. Playing center under torts isn't getting points, it's 200ft, outlet, system hockey. We had creative, green, clueless, youth. That's a very, very significant issue for this team.

Personally, I really like Roslovic (I did prior to the trade) and think Domi settled in the 2nd half of the year. Texier had a sign wave season that I'm hoping was impacted by his injury, issues at home and other things that he can clear out. That said, they need leadership, example, stability and direction at the position, which isn't coming from this group without growing pains. I know we're talking about a "1C" but I'm not sure if that means the same to us as it does the organization. Their 1C could very well be a guy that can play 20min a night and anchor a line, while not hurting the team to allow others to drop down the lineup and flourish as they continue to learn.... OR .... it could mean they can target a guy that has all the traits to be a 1C and don't feel any of out young talent does so while improving the team, it's more a not next year thing but the year after thing. Again, so many variables right now. What if the coach actually plugs into the talent on the roster? More open, less dump and chase and forecheck, more defense activation... That can change the fortunes as well.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Of course people want to rebuild, then they can continue to complain about the team not winning enough games.

What do you want to team to do in the event Seth Jones says no to extending his contract this summer? Keep him and go all in again?

 

[GoJackets1]

Regardless of whether or not we are rebuilding or reloading, my keys to the offseason are to somehow get Beniers with our top pick, whether that's by winning the lottery or him dropping to us somehow, and to either re-sign or trade Seth if he won't re-sign. If he won't re-sign, then I don't want him to play another game in a CBJ jersey. Not because I'm upset (which I am), but because I refuse to lose him for nothing and would rather start the year completely fresh than have that hang over the organization's head until the trade deadline.

My third hope is that we can use current assets or cap space to acquire at least one true top 6 center. All of those things would lead to what I would consider a successful offseason, player personnel wise. Not that any of this isn't obvious, but it would absolutely go a long way towards kicking off a successful post-Torts era.

 

[KJ Dangler]

JD puts to bed who is calling the shots.... Also, JD wants to see what Laine can do with a normal start/ camp

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

JD puts to bed who is calling the shots....

Well THAT topic is put to bed forever then.

 

[Kevo22363]

I don't have a lot of concern about Jones for some reason. Just like JD said, he either stays or doesn't and the team will have to do what they need to do to deal with it. I feel more confident this offseason with JD back in the fold. The ultimate goal is still to win. I don't think this is a signal of a rebuild, this may be more of a remodel. I think there are some good pieces to work around and they have the assets to be able to fill the holes.

To me, it sounds like Laine will be here. Interesting to see how his contract goes. Fully expect 2 years, but I think with this down season, the Jackets might be able to get him for a better AAV. JD and Jarmo are not going to let all their previous work implode. I think they need some players that are tougher on the puck. I like Robinson. He's fast and tough and has some scoring touch. I think players like this are critical to the bottom 6. For the top six, the #1 center is imperative. This is where JD and Jarmo have to get creative to acquire what this franchise has needed. Eichel would be great, but is there another player that fits the role better that may also be available. So many unanswered questions and chances for our assets to improve (draft lottery). Should be a fun summer.

 

[JacketsDavid]

To me, it sounds like Laine will be here. Interesting to see how his contract goes. Fully expect 2 years, but I think with this down season, the Jackets might be able to get him for a better AAV.

I don't think the sign for less thing will happen. We have to offer him 100% of his current salary to maintain his rights. If we offer him anything below $7.5M and he turns it down, then we don't receive any compensation if he does accept a qualifying offer. And as bad as he was this year, I still think someone would roll the dice on him if they didn't have to give up the first round picks.

I guess we could offer him 1 year and $7.5M, then also offer him 2 year and $13M or so, but I would assume he would be on himself with a one year deal at $7.5M.

 

[majormajor]

Regardless of whether or not we are rebuilding or reloading, my keys to the offseason are to somehow get Beniers with our top pick, whether that's by winning the lottery or him dropping to us somehow, and to either re-sign or trade Seth if he won't re-sign. If he won't re-sign, then I don't want him to play another game in a CBJ jersey. Not because I'm upset (which I am), but because I refuse to lose him for nothing and would rather start the year completely fresh than have that hang over the organization's head until the trade deadline.

My third hope is that we can use current assets or cap space to acquire at least one true top 6 center. All of those things would lead to what I would consider a successful offseason, player personnel wise. Not that any of this isn't obvious, but it would absolutely go a long way towards kicking off a successful post-Torts era.

I think if we're rebuilding then it doesn't matter whether we get Beniers this year or not - it might actually be better to go for a center next year or the year after where there should be several centers just as good as Beniers and several centers much better than Beniers.

And if Seth isn't part of the picture then getting Brandt Clarke would seem to be equally important as getting a center, the right side D will be a black hole for the Jackets org and getting a #1RD will be super difficult.

 

[majormajor]

I re-wrote my "Go For Broke" scenario with a Jones trade just to see if it was still possible, and it definitely is. Jones+ for Eichel (involving a third team) seems like an obvious move.

Miller - Eichel - Atkinson
Jen/Hof - Danault - Bjorkstrand
Nyquist - Roslovic - Bemstrom
Foudy - Texier - Robinson
Jen/Hof, Stenlund

Gavrikov - Hamilton
Werenski - Peeke
Murray - Kukan
Lehtonen

Elvis
Kiv

Hamilton @ $10m x 7, Danault @ $5.5m x 5, Murray at $3.3m x 2. Still about $4m in cap to play with.

I actually like this version more, I think because I think Werenski and Hamilton each give us more than Jones has. If the $70m doesn't sway Hamilton then obviously the team won't be quite as good, but we still have options. We could take right-sider Nate Schmidt, who will basically be given away. He has $6m cap hit with an ideal two years left. Dumba is also available with the same contract but I'm not sure if he's good enough.

The Jones+ for Eichel concept is basically Jones for a top prospect that the Sabres tell us they want, and that prospect + 6th OA pick + Domi + Korpi for Eichel.

 

[VT]

I don't have a lot of concern about Jones for some reason. Just like JD said, he either stays or doesn't and the team will have to do what they need to do to deal with it. I feel more confident this offseason with JD back in the fold. The ultimate goal is still to win. I don't think this is a signal of a rebuild, this may be more of a remodel. I think there are some good pieces to work around and they have the assets to be able to fill the holes.

To me, it sounds like Laine will be here. Interesting to see how his contract goes. Fully expect 2 years, but I think with this down season, the Jackets might be able to get him for a better AAV. JD and Jarmo are not going to let all their previous work implode. I think they need some players that are tougher on the puck. I like Robinson. He's fast and tough and has some scoring touch. I think players like this are critical to the bottom 6. For the top six, the #1 center is imperative. This is where JD and Jarmo have to get creative to acquire what this franchise has needed. Eichel would be great, but is there another player that fits the role better that may also be available. So many unanswered questions and chances for our assets to improve (draft lottery). Should be a fun summer.

I think Eichel would be bad for us because his salary. Besides if a team has god wingers he doesn`t need 1C like Eichel minimum. Nyquist is like a new player for us.
Simply it`s diffucult. We don`t forget your youngs: Bemstrom, Texier, Foudy, Chinakhov too, plus Europeans: Hoffman and Danforth.

I don't think the sign for less thing will happen. We have to offer him 100% of his current salary to maintain his rights. If we offer him anything below $7.5M and he turns it down, then we don't receive any compensation if he does accept a qualifying offer. And as bad as he was this year, I still think someone would roll the dice on him if they didn't have to give up the first round picks.

I guess we could offer him 1 year and $7.5M, then also offer him 2 year and $13M or so, but I would assume he would be on himself with a one year deal at $7.5M.

If he would find his play I doubt he would agree with $6,5M for the next 2 years.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

I think Eichel would be bad for us because his salary. Besides if a team has god wingers he doesn`t need 1C like Eichel minimum. Nyquist is like a new player for us.
Simply it`s diffucult. We don`t forget your youngs: Bemstrom, Texier, Foudy, Chinakhov too, plus Europeans: Hoffman and Danforth.

A healthy Nyquist wouldn’t have made this team a contender to even make the playoffs this year.

None of the other players/prospects you mentioned have proven jack shit at the NHL level. This team is hopeless without proven CENTERS being added to the lineup. Jack Eichel would do wonders for this team if added for the right price.

 

[VT]

A healthy Nyquist wouldn’t have made this team a contender to even make the playoffs this year.

None of the other players/prospects you mentioned have proven jack shit at the NHL level. This team is hopeless without proven CENTERS being added to the lineup. Jack Eichel would do wonders for this team if added for the right price.

Bjorkstrand, Laine (if he would find his play) are nothing of course. Btw Patrik can play without TOP center too he showed it. Besides look at Max stats in Montreal. Jack will be only better. Eichel is uselless. No team even reload in a way today and now is stupidity IMHO. No success team even reload this way.
P.S. I forgot, yes. Toronto and Rangers in the past. Results...?

 

[majormajor]

Call this one "Building for 2024".

Chinakhov - Holloway - Bjorkstrand
Marchenko - Svechkov - Michkov
Texier - Roslovic - Atkinson
Angle - Voronkov - Foudy
Othmann

Werenski - Clarke
Gavrikov - UFA
OJBH - Peeke

UFA
Kivlenieks

Brandt Clarke 6th OA 2021.
Brennan Othmann 25th OA 2021.
Logan Cooley 6th OA 2022
Matvei Michkov 2nd OA 2023

Seth Jones for Dylan Holloway - Holloway provides a Horvat type impact and buys time for Logan Cooley to become the #1C.
Cooley is still in the AHL in this scenario.
Patrik Laine for Kings' 9th OA in 2021 - Fedor Svechkov selected.

Extra additions to the stable:
2 2nd rounders from Elvis trade in 2021
late 1st from Jenner trade at 2022 deadline
2nd + 4th from Nyquist trade at 2023 deadline

How good is this team?

Still not good in 2024, probably. Bound to be very inconsistent with this many young players.

But I'd expect them to be very good within a year or two of this point. Michkov will be one of the best players in the league, the top 4D are probably very good, and the team has a great flow of ELC talent into every forward position. It's not clear who would emerge as legit topliners but the volume of draft capital suggests our chances of filling those jobs are good.

Realism check:

I tried to presume the normal proportion of busts - Bemstrom, 1 late 2021 1st, Knazko, Tarasov, TFW, Pyyhtia, etc...

Is this luckier than a typical rebuild? I'd say yes, but also not implausibly so. The Senators have just been arguably luckier. Landing Michkov, by itself is lucky, but the reason this team is loaded with high level young players is because we poured a ton of draft/trade capital into making that happen.

Those UFA spots would have to be $12m plus in total just to get the Jackets to the cap floor, by the way, so expect some good veterans in those spots.

 

[VT]

I re-wrote my "Go For Broke" scenario with a Jones trade just to see if it was still possible, and it definitely is. Jones+ for Eichel (involving a third team) seems like an obvious move.

Miller - Eichel - Atkinson
Jen/Hof - Danault - Bjorkstrand
Nyquist - Roslovic - Bemstrom
Foudy - Texier - Robinson
Jen/Hof, Stenlund

Gavrikov - Hamilton
Werenski - Peeke
Murray - Kukan
Lehtonen

Elvis
Kiv

Hamilton @ $10m x 7, Danault @ $5.5m x 5, Murray at $3.3m x 2. Still about $4m in cap to play with.

I actually like this version more, I think because I think Werenski and Hamilton each give us more than Jones has. If the $70m doesn't sway Hamilton then obviously the team won't be quite as good, but we still have options. We could take right-sider Nate Schmidt, who will basically be given away. He has $6m cap hit with an ideal two years left. Dumba is also available with the same contract but I'm not sure if he's good enough.

The Jones+ for Eichel concept is basically Jones for a top prospect that the Sabres tell us they want, and that prospect + 6th OA pick + Domi + Korpi for Eichel.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Hamilton @ $10m x 7, Danault @ $5.5m x 5, Murray at $3.3m x 2. Still about $4m in cap to play with.

I actually like this version more, I think because I think Werenski and Hamilton each give us more than Jones has. .

Hamilton is worse than Zach on defense

Jones>>both of them

....wait, you have Jones being traded for a prospect?

Heh.....ok

 

[VT]

I re-wrote my "Go For Broke" scenario with a Jones trade just to see if it was still possible, and it definitely is. Jones+ for Eichel (involving a third team) seems like an obvious move.

Miller - Eichel - Atkinson
Jen/Hof - Danault - Bjorkstrand
Nyquist - Roslovic - Bemstrom
Foudy - Texier - Robinson
Jen/Hof, Stenlund

Gavrikov - Hamilton
Werenski - Peeke
Murray - Kukan
Lehtonen

Elvis
Kiv

Hamilton @ $10m x 7, Danault @ $5.5m x 5, Murray at $3.3m x 2. Still about $4m in cap to play with.

I actually like this version more, I think because I think Werenski and Hamilton each give us more than Jones has. If the $70m doesn't sway Hamilton then obviously the team won't be quite as good, but we still have options. We could take right-sider Nate Schmidt, who will basically be given away. He has $6m cap hit with an ideal two years left. Dumba is also available with the same contract but I'm not sure if he's good enough.

The Jones+ for Eichel concept is basically Jones for a top prospect that the Sabres tell us they want, and that prospect + 6th OA pick + Domi + Korpi for Eichel.

Call this one "Building for 2024".

Chinakhov - Holloway - Bjorkstrand
Marchenko - Svechkov - Michkov
Texier - Roslovic - Atkinson
Angle - Voronkov - Foudy
Othmann

Werenski - Clarke
Gavrikov - UFA
OJBH - Peeke

UFA
Kivlenieks

Brandt Clarke 6th OA 2021.
Brennan Othmann 25th OA 2021.
Logan Cooley 6th OA 2022
Matvei Michkov 2nd OA 2023

Seth Jones for Dylan Holloway - Holloway provides a Horvat type impact and buys time for Logan Cooley to become the #1C.
Cooley is still in the AHL in this scenario.
Patrik Laine for Kings' 9th OA in 2021 - Fedor Svechkov selected.

Extra additions to the stable:
2 2nd rounders from Elvis trade in 2021
late 1st from Jenner trade at 2022 deadline
2nd + 4th from Nyquist trade at 2023 deadline

How good is this team?

Still not good in 2024, probably. Bound to be very inconsistent with this many young players.

But I'd expect them to be very good within a year or two of this point. Michkov will be one of the best players in the league, the top 4D are probably very good, and the team has a great flow of ELC talent into every forward position. It's not clear who would emerge as legit topliners but the volume of draft capital suggests our chances of filling those jobs are good.

Realism check:

I tried to presume the normal proportion of busts - Bemstrom, 1 late 2021 1st, Knazko, Tarasov, TFW, Pyyhtia, etc...

Is this luckier than a typical rebuild? I'd say yes, but also not implausibly so. The Senators have just been arguably luckier. Landing Michkov, by itself is lucky, but the reason this team is loaded with high level young players is because we poured a ton of draft/trade capital into making that happen.

Those UFA spots would have to be $12m plus in total just to get the Jackets to the cap floor, by the way, so expect some good veterans in those spots.

Laine for the 9th OA... O.K.
Jones (UFA) + ... or Domi, Korpi nad 6th OA ... O.K.
Murray to the team from what he wanted to go out... O.K.

etc.

So great reloading, really great... but for destroying the team...

 

[majormajor]

• Laine for Miller (you wrote it in the past)... Vancouver never accept it.
• Hofmann/Jenner to the 2th line... O.K.
• Eichel (useless IMHO) for Jones who will be UFA + ... I see how Bufallo agree with this trade.
• Murray to the team from what he wanted to go out.
• where is Danforth?

- I wouldn't be so sure. They might not have to trade Miller anymore but they also might prefer the thought of Laine with Pettersson. If that particular deal wouldn't work I'd try to move Laine for a comparable player. Maybe Timo Meier?

- I think Nyquist is going to be more than capable of playing as a top six winger, these lines are just for chemistry/roles. Jenner is a forechecker and a netfront presence, which is what Danault and Bjorkstrand would need. Also would it be that implausible if Hofmann had a Kubalik type impact?

- There's no universe where Eichel is useless. Maybe you meant to say unnecessary, I've heard you argue that point before. I think he is an upgrade for us in several aspects - transition, PP, playmaking, shooting. Just an overall great player. I'm sort of presuming they do their homework on the character and health issues and give the all clear there, it's not for me to investigate.

- Murray was arguably more successful here than in New Jersey, and if we pay him this much we're likely the highest bidder. He didn't have an issue with the CBJ org, he wanted to leave to try for better luck elsewhere.

- I don't know if Danforth will be good or not. You have to presume a certain number of disappointments, players that don't quite do what you hoped. It could be him, or maybe Hofmann, maybe Chinakhov, Foudy, maybe the wheels are completely off for Jenner. We won't know. By the same token maybe Roslovic or Texier or Robinson will force their way into higher minutes.

 

[majormajor]

Hamilton is worse than Zach on defense

Jones>>both of them

....wait, you have Jones being traded for a prospect?

Heh.....ok

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think both Z and Dougie are fine defensively and they've both been better overall players than Jones over the last couple years.

Yes I have Jones being traded for a prospect in that rebuilding scenario. That's how rebuilds go.

 

[majormajor]

Laine for the 9th OA... O.K.
Jones (UFA) + ... or Domi, Korpi nad 6th OA ... O.K.
Murray to the team from what he wanted to go out... O.K.

etc.

So great reloading, really great... but for destroying the team...

You realize these are two completely different alternative scenarios right? Both are intentionally extreme to highlight the range of outcomes. And I'm also arguing for one or the other. I don't want much in between.

I know the rebuild destroys the team, that's step one!

I would not shed a tear if we made any of these trades, I'd be happy to get #9OA for Laine.

 

[VT]

- I wouldn't be so sure. They might not have to trade Miller anymore but they also might prefer the thought of Laine with Pettersson. If that particular deal wouldn't work I'd try to move Laine for a comparable player. Maybe Timo Meier?

- I think Nyquist is going to be more than capable of playing as a top six winger, these lines are just for chemistry/roles. Jenner is a forechecker and a netfront presence, which is what Danault and Bjorkstrand would need. Also would it be that implausible if Hofmann had a Kubalik type impact?

- There's no universe where Eichel is useless. Maybe you meant to say unnecessary, I've heard you argue that point before. I think he is an upgrade for us in several aspects - transition, PP, playmaking, shooting. Just an overall great player. I'm sort of presuming they do their homework on the character and health issues and give the all clear there, it's not for me to investigate.

- Murray was arguably more successful here than in New Jersey, and if we pay him this much we're likely the highest bidder. He didn't have an issue with the CBJ org, he wanted to leave to try for better luck elsewhere.

- I don't know if Danforth will be good or not. You have to presume a certain number of disappointments, players that don't quite do what you hoped. It could be him, or maybe Hofmann, maybe Chinakhov, Foudy, maybe the wheels are completely off for Jenner. We won't know. By the same token maybe Roslovic or Texier or Robinson will force their way into higher minutes.

- Laine has a bad season but it doesn`t mean it will repeat it. Plus J.T. is versatile player. Timo Meier... forget. Btw trade him with his similar value... nobody would give us the 1th pick in the 1th round for him.
- Nyquist is a very good, versatile player, Jenner has "stone" hands and he isn`t so speed.
- We doesn`t need Eichel but the balanced team.
- Moneys don`t always solve everything.
- We can`t know it about Hofmann too. Btw he isn`t a forechecker. But I agree with youngs.

Btw I understood there`re two different scenaries.

Every success team must build (don`t to be mistaken for a complete rebuilt) step by step. Rangers and Toronto made it like you wrote. Results were terrible.

 

[CrockyCrock]

Laine needs a real 1C that’s just a fact. Blame whatever scapegoat we want but he sucked all year and if we dont get an Eichel or bare minimum Hertl then Laine will continue to suck until he can slide out of town one way or another.

Not being a pessimist but it’s a fact that Nyquist is about to turn 32 and likelihood of him being anything next time we are actual contenders are slim to none especially considering he’s already a middle 6 player on a good team.

Hofmann and Danforth are 28 years old not in the NHL that anyone could’ve had for a smile and a handshake. They’re at best hopefuls and hope isn’t a strategy.

 

[CrockyCrock]

Improve the centers or we are screwed. Vegas has made having average centers work and good for them. That’s 1 out of how many 15 teams with average centers who has real success? You don’t play those odds you improve the centers by a lot.

Vegas made the cup with average centers and good for them. Now the teams who actually held the cup? Maybe the worst 1C was O’Reilly in STL? Who happens to play a CBJ style two way game who was on the market while we needed centers but we wound up with Duchene? That has always been a miss for Jarmo for me. O’Reilly becomes Selke and ConnSmythe winner and with Duchene we damn near missed the playoffs before winning 1 (albeit awesome) playoff series.