Proposal: Building for 2021-2022

[majormajor]

Yeah, he can go be like everyone else. He can eat his words regarding wanting to sign here that he said in January. He can hide under the blanket of criticism because he has the “out” of the team being bad. Because it’s all about what’s best for him.

He can do what he wants to do. Obviously he will. But I prefer Panarin’s honesty of the final year here rather than being led on a string (like Panarin did during his first regular season here). But I’m not going to tip my cap and say thank you for f***ing us over like the Panarins and PLDs of the world. Those days from me are done for a while.

I'm trying to understand the angry reaction.

I think I'm just naturally more chill about this sort of thing. But also I tend not to think the last couple years of hockey have been good enough for Seth. He hasn't been a great player, and he should be. That's no small thing. From my perspective we'd be better off getting futures for him if that's all we're getting out of the player. And from his perspective he's better off going somewhere where he can discover his best self. If I thought he was such a great player maybe I'd be pissed too. But it hasn't been happening here, and absent some big big changes it won't happen soon.

 

[majormajor]

Maybe, maybe not, especially because he's only 15, so who knows if he stops growing early or something, but the stats mentioned in this article (even if over a smallish sample size compared to normal, non-Covid seasons) don't do much to tamper expectations.

https://thehockeywriters.com/connor-bedard-generational-talent-2023-draft/

I tend to think the McDavid development curve from age 15 onward is too much of an expectation for any particular player. McDavid has improved his game every single year, never taken a step back. That's just a lot to ask.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm trying to understand the angry reaction.

I think I'm just naturally more chill about this sort of thing. But also I tend not to think the last couple years of hockey have been good enough for Seth. He hasn't been a great player, and he should be. That's no small thing. From my perspective we'd be better off getting futures for him if that's all we're getting out of the player. And from his perspective he's better off going somewhere where he can discover his best self. If I thought he was such a great player maybe I'd be pissed too. But it hasn't been happening here, and absent some big big changes it won't happen soon.

Im trying to understand the appeal of welcoming an all out roster blowup.

Seeing what’s gone on in Detroit and Buffalo doesn’t interest me. Potentially trading Jones, Werenski, and whoever else would be a trajectory toward doing what they’re doing. That isn’t appealing to me, and Jones holds the cards on whether or not that happens. So yeah, that’s where my anger comes from.

 

[DJA]

Whatever happens, I hope JD puts the kibosh on this “we’ll keep him into next season and try to convince him to sign” BS that Jarmo spewed before he got here.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Whatever happens, I hope JD puts the kibosh on this “we’ll keep him into next season and try to convince him to sign” BS that Jarmo spewed before he got here.

That doesn’t necessarily mean (and probably wouldn’t mean) we wouldn’t trade him at the deadline. (And it also doesn’t mean he wouldn't be a summer trade if the right offer comes along.) But an artificial timeline doesn’t do any good. We either are forced to trade him in the summer for what might be not as good an offer as we’d get at the deadline, or we don’t trade him in the summer (with intention to still trade him at the TDL) and it causes a huge saga and/or other GMs/agents know Jarmo’s bluffs can be called.

The message that “we’re still trying to sign him” also doesn’t deflate his value unnecessarily.

 

[DJA]

That doesn’t necessarily mean (and probably wouldn’t mean) we wouldn’t trade him at the deadline. (And it also doesn’t mean he wouldn't be a summer trade if the right offer comes along.) But an artificial timeline doesn’t do any good. We either are forced to trade him in the summer for what might be not as good an offer as we’d get at the deadline, or we don’t trade him in the summer (with intention to still trade him at the TDL) and it causes a huge saga and/or other GMs/agents know Jarmo’s bluffs can be called.

The message that “we’re still trying to sign him” also doesn’t deflate his value unnecessarily.

It would be idiotic to trade him at the deadline because you reduce the number of teams who can make a deal and the returns are never as good as in the offseason (plus when was the last “star player” traded at the TDL?). we’d drag this drama on for another regular season and I don’t know about you, but I’d like to go a single season without another one of these soap operas. He needs to be signed by training camp or be moved (not sure why we’re scared of giving him a deadline/ultimatum, we need a decision because the rebuild depends on him)

 

[Long Live Lyle]

It would be idiotic to trade him at the deadline because you reduce the number of teams who can make a deal and the returns are never as good as in the offseason (plus when was the last “star player” traded at the TDL?). we’d drag this drama on for another regular season and I don’t know about you, but I’d like to go a single season without another one of these soap operas. He needs to be signed by training camp or be moved (not sure why we’re scared of giving him a deadline/ultimatum, we need a decision because the rebuild depends on him)

That's fine if that's the internal thought process. I still don't think it has to be that, but if it is, then whatever, fine.

That should absolutely not be the external message (and by external I mean literally everyone not named Davidson, Kekalainen, McRae, Flynn, Nash and Clark and [possibly] the new coach. That includes Jones/his agent, let alone other people in the organization [including scouts/players], let alone other people around the league, let alone media, let alone schmucks like us).

Kek's message to the media was exactly what it should've been and it should remain that way until he's actually traded. Until he's traded, we're always working to sign him. The second you make it known you're looking to trade him by August 31, you lose leverage.

 

[KJ Dangler]

I’m ok with whatever Jones decides honestly . I like the player , believe he would make a great captain , he’s marketable , etc . My guess is the front office doesn’t know at this point . With JD coming back, what I think will change , and I think Jarmos ego will be checked a bit , but the goal will shift back to building a cup contender , not squeaking into the playoffs next year . Jd is going to come in , point out that the farm system is pretty shallow of talent , they have 3 first rounders , and that we are more than a center away from being a cup contender . If we draft Beniers this year , let’s say Jones doesn’t want to resign , we get a couple elite prospects back in a Jones trade , and we get one of the top 3 players in next years draft , think about how quick they can turn it around . Looking at the talent JD has amassed in NY, gives me great hope .

 

[koteka]

Im trying to understand the appeal of welcoming an all out roster blowup.

Seeing what’s gone on in Detroit and Buffalo doesn’t interest me. Potentially trading Jones, Werenski, and whoever else would be a trajectory toward doing what they’re doing. That isn’t appealing to me, and Jones holds the cards on whether or not that happens. So yeah, that’s where my anger comes from.

There are three incredible players in the next two drafts after this one. Any of the three would be be #1 OA if they could be drafted this year. There are times to suck, and there are times where sucking isn’t so great. We are entering a window where there are three guys that look like sure thing franchise changing players. We’re not talking Jack Hughes type players. We’re talking more Matthews type guys. 3 of them. Guys that have been hyped for a couple of years.

Can Bedard vs. Michkov Become the Next Sid vs. Ovie?

 

[DJA]

That's fine if that's the internal thought process. I still don't think it has to be that, but if it is, then whatever, fine.

That should absolutely not be the external message (and by external I mean literally everyone not named Davidson, Kekalainen, McRae, Flynn, Nash and Clark and [possibly] the new coach. That includes Jones/his agent, let alone other people in the organization [including scouts/players], let alone other people around the league, let alone media, let alone schmucks like us).

Kek's message to the media was exactly what it should've been and it should remain that way until he's actually traded. Until he's traded, we're always working to sign him. The second you make it known you're looking to trade him by August 31, you lose leverage.

Seth Jones is Seth Jones. You don’t think the going rate has already been established around the league? And his situation is pretty obvious around the league to anyone who’s paying attention. PLD quit on his team and still brought in a decent haul. Seth Jones isn’t suddenly going to go for a third round pick because other GMs find out (as if they don’t know already) that we’d prefer to trade him by September. In fact I think the only way the offers dry up is if you wait too long and teams will just go the “I’ll just sign him as a UFA” route.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

There are three incredible players in the next two drafts after this one. Any of the three would be be #1 OA if they could be drafted this year. There are times to suck, and there are times where sucking isn’t so great. We are entering a window where there are three guys that look like sure thing franchise changing players. We’re not talking Jack Hughes type players. We’re talking more Matthews type guys. 3 of them. Guys that have been hyped for a couple of years.

Can Bedard vs. Michkov Become the Next Sid vs. Ovie?

probably lose Both lotteries and get third. And then that kid will request a trade after 3 years

 

[majormajor]

I’m ok with whatever Jones decides honestly . I like the player , believe he would make a great captain , he’s marketable , etc . My guess is the front office doesn’t know at this point . With JD coming back, what I think will change , and I think Jarmos ego will be checked a bit , but the goal will shift back to building a cup contender , not squeaking into the playoffs next year . Jd is going to come in , point out that the farm system is pretty shallow of talent , they have 3 first rounders , and that we are more than a center away from being a cup contender . If we draft Beniers this year , let’s say Jones doesn’t want to resign , we get a couple elite prospects back in a Jones trade , and we get one of the top 3 players in next years draft , think about how quick they can turn it around . Looking at the talent JD has amassed in NY, gives me great hope .

The Rangers luck seems so implausible I won't even use it as a model for us.

I do agree that getting good prospects via trade and the draft is going to be the biggest thing.

One thing I'll say is that I don't think our present farm system is shallow. I know that is the common viewpoint, but I don't think it's accurate. The depth of mid-range talent is good, the problem is that there are no absolute blue chippers.

The second and third best leagues in the world are the KHL and the AHL. Maybe SHL is at that level? I'm not sure.

We have the 1st, 3rd, and 5th ranked U21 scorers in the KHL by points per game.

We have the 1st and 5th ranked U21 scorers in the AHL by points per game.

(minimum 10 games)

Then add Tarasov, Kiv, and Peeke, and we've got the high end depth. It's a good pool to flesh out a lineup, but no real blue chip talents that you expect to save you.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I’m against an immediate total tear down. For the upcoming season I want to see how many of these players perform under a new coach and system.

That said, if Jones isn’t extending its imperative he be traded. So too must one of the goalies be packaged. Additionally It seems unlikely that all three NA prospects - Foudy, Tex, Bem, Peeke, Carlson - are going to make it and the team needs to decide who isn’t as any package will likely need a prospect or two added. (Of course we can keep them all playing the game of throwing (whatever) against the wall and see what sticks.

Of course if we are to undergo a total rebuild, it’s time to trade not only Jones and a goalie but probably Bjork, Jenner, Nyquist and possibly Laine too.

 

[koteka]

probably lose Both lotteries and get third. And then that kid will request a trade after 3 years

Ahh, but next year has plenty of C prospects better than this year. As does 22-23. Draft D high this year. We can draft Cs next two years even if we finish 3 - 6 after the lottery.

If we get good prospects back from Jones, then it makes sense. I think the Islanders should be all over Jones with 50% retained. They have had cap issues but would be able to pay him on his next contract starting in 22-23. (Remember he was coached by Trotz early in in Nashville, and traded after Trotz was gone.) Wahlstrom is a nice to have in New York, and will be a big contributor later on, but right now, he is more potential than anything else. He could be a traded as part of a package for a big win now kind of guy like Seth Jones. And then he could score pretty goals and develop in Columbus while we suck. And then in 24-25 we would look like a team on the rise with several top picks and a couple of good prospects from trades and vets like Bjork and Zach, and hopefully more developed Foudy, Tex, and Roslovic.

 

[majormajor]

Seth Jones is Seth Jones. You don’t think the going rate has already been established around the league? And his situation is pretty obvious around the league to anyone who’s paying attention. PLD quit on his team and still brought in a decent haul. Seth Jones isn’t suddenly going to go for a third round pick because other GMs find out (as if they don’t know already) that we’d prefer to trade him by September. In fact I think the only way the offers dry up is if you wait too long and teams will just go the “I’ll just sign him as a UFA” route.

It really depends how excited other GMs get to get him. And there's a good chance we'll be in a scenario where Seth is willing to extend with team X and we can't credibly say to team X that there is a team Y that he's also willing to extend with. In which case our perceived willingness to hold on to Jones is about the only thing keeping up his trade price.

I get what you're saying, his price won't go lower than a one year rental value, which is still probably a 1st+. But we want a blue chip prospect and that'll probably require some kind of extension in place.

 

[NotWendell]

I don't know that the problem is Jarmo's ego. It's that at times when you need assurance or a little pep talk, hearing him talk makes you want to put a gun to your head.

 

[majormajor]

Ahh, but next year has plenty of C prospects better than this year. As does 22-23. Draft D high this year. We can draft Cs next two years even if we finish 3 - 6 after the lottery.

If we get good prospects back from Jones, then it makes sense. I think the Islanders should be all over Jones with 50% retained. They have had cap issues but would be able to pay him on his next contract starting in 22-23. (Remember he was coached by Trotz early in in Nashville, and traded after Trotz was gone.) Wahlstrom is a nice to have in New York, and will be a big contributor later on, but right now, he is more potential than anything else. He could be a traded as part of a package for a big win now kind of guy like Seth Jones. And then he could score pretty goals and develop in Columbus while we suck. And then in 24-25 we would look like a team on the rise with several top picks and a couple of good prospects from trades and vets like Bjork and Zach, and hopefully more developed Foudy, Tex, and Roslovic.

I'm with the general idea but Wahlstrom wouldn't be enough for me.

 

[majormajor]

I’m against an immediate total tear down. For the upcoming season I want to see how many of these players perform under a new coach and system.

That said, if Jones isn’t extending its imperative he be traded. So too must one of the goalies be packaged. Additionally It seems unlikely that all three NA prospects - Foudy, Tex, Bem, Peeke, Carlson - are going to make it and the team needs to decide who isn’t as any package will likely need a prospect or two added. (Of course we can keep them all playing the game of throwing (whatever) against the wall and see what sticks.

Of course if we are to undergo a total rebuild, it’s time to trade not only Jones and a goalie but probably Bjork, Jenner, Nyquist and possibly Laine too.

Even if we opt for a "total rebuild", realistically you can only move out so much talent at once.

I don't think we really need to shed quite that many guys to suck badly enough, I'd hope to keep Bjorkstrand and Werenski long term. Jenner among others can go at the next deadline and Nyquist the one after.

And I'm not buying the idea that we need to abandon prospects, other than Carlsson who is 24 now and not good enough. The other guys are still very young and worth sticking with. Yes absolutely keep giving them opportunities and hope that a better coach for them helps unlock their talent. I know that sounds like repeating failure but this is how it goes with prospects, you keep giving them chances until they get it right (preferably with more AHL time).

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Seth Jones is Seth Jones. You don’t think the going rate has already been established around the league? And his situation is pretty obvious around the league to anyone who’s paying attention. PLD quit on his team and still brought in a decent haul. Seth Jones isn’t suddenly going to go for a third round pick because other GMs find out (as if they don’t know already) that we’d prefer to trade him by September. In fact I think the only way the offers dry up is if you wait too long and teams will just go the “I’ll just sign him as a UFA” route.

There is no harm if our external message is "we're trying to sign him." It sends a message that you better blow us away with an offer. And maybe some team would. Obviously he's getting at least a first round pick and a top prospect, but beyond that might be determined by just how much we can convince a team that we're continuing negotiations with him, so if you want him, pay up, because we're working to keep him otherwise. Maybe that's a bluff, maybe it's not. But there's absolutely no benefit to coming out and publicly saying we're definitely trading Jones before training camp. Perhaps there's no harm, perhaps there is harm. But there's definitely no benefit.

As for the actual timeline decision:

Bringing up PLD is a bit ironic, because if we had held onto him and not rushed the trade, maybe we could have used him as part of a trade for Eichel, as an example. At the start of the season, Eichel wasn't on the block. If we had waited approx. one more month, that could have been an enticing part of a package (with an add in addition to PLD) for Eichel. Buffalo would be more likely to trade Eichel to us if they knew they had another young 1C coming back to replace him. What assets do we have now for a trade like that? That's just one example of rushing a trade perhaps not being in best interest.

The NYI would have had a MASSIVE haul for Tavares if they traded him at the deadline. We would have had a massive haul for Panarin if we traded him at the deadline. It's just that neither us nor NYI actually pulled the trigger. Arguably a bigger haul than summer because teams get desperate at the deadline. They think they're "one piece away" from winning the Cup. There's not that desperation in August. In August, teams think they have the perfect fit. Then they get into the season and realize "actually, we really need improving here" or their star defenseman gets injured and needs replaced. There aren't many big trades at the deadline because normally the biggest names have already re-signed with the current team they're on and/or they're on playoff teams, so not being dealt. I don't think it has anything to do with teams offering less than summer, but more to do with those types of players are just rarely available at the deadline.

On the flipside, if a team wants to try to re-sign Jones, maybe they think they need to trade for him in the summer, so that's when their best offer is. Or maybe a team that actually ends up having a really bad season mistakenly thinks in the summer that they're a contender so have a great offer in August but then they're no longer a trade option at the deadline. Or maybe Jones gets injured and we're screwed. For those reasons, it's possible the summer is better. But I really don't think there's this definitive: "he must go in summer" or a need to panic/rush a trade. And even if that is the case, we don't need to say it.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I’m ok with whatever Jones decides honestly . I like the player , believe he would make a great captain , he’s marketable , etc . My guess is the front office doesn’t know at this point . With JD coming back, what I think will change , and I think Jarmos ego will be checked a bit , but the goal will shift back to building a cup contender , not squeaking into the playoffs next year . Jd is going to come in , point out that the farm system is pretty shallow of talent , they have 3 first rounders , and that we are more than a center away from being a cup contender . If we draft Beniers this year , let’s say Jones doesn’t want to resign , we get a couple elite prospects back in a Jones trade , and we get one of the top 3 players in next years draft , think about how quick they can turn it around . Looking at the talent JD has amassed in NY, gives me great hope .

There isn’t anything in this post that isn’t projection.

 

[majormajor]

There isn’t anything in this post that isn’t projection.

I have a feeling by projection you mean

"the unconscious transfer of one's own desires or emotions to another person"

and not

"an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones"

There seemed to be both kinds of projection going on there.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I have a feeling by projection you mean

"the unconscious transfer of one's own desires or emotions to another person"

and not

"an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones"

There seemed to be both kinds of projection going on there.

I just meant like a film and a screen and a light and then you move the film.

 

[koteka]

I'm with the general idea but Wahlstrom wouldn't be enough for me.

Me neither, but he is a good start to a package. They also have a some right D draft picks (Dobson, Wilde) and a left D (Bolduc) that look way better than what we have in the pipeline.

 

[Cowumbus]

There are three incredible players in the next two drafts after this one. Any of the three would be be #1 OA if they could be drafted this year. There are times to suck, and there are times where sucking isn’t so great. We are entering a window where there are three guys that look like sure thing franchise changing players. We’re not talking Jack Hughes type players. We’re talking more Matthews type guys. 3 of them. Guys that have been hyped for a couple of years.

Can Bedard vs. Michkov Become the Next Sid vs. Ovie?

Michkov is staying in Russia until 2026. Also even if we finish dead last both years there is zero guarantee we get any of those guys..

 

[thebus88]

Of course people want to rebuild, then they can continue to complain about the team not winning enough games.