Value of: Brown/Kapanen for Kylington/Andersson

[Canada4Gold]

I'm super pumped for Kylington. I thought he'd be a first rounder and he has not disappointed. I think we are all very high on I'm, as well as Andersson.

It's not to say your prospects aren't good. I mean, personally I think Kapanen will not be a regular on an NHL team but I see the value of Brown, and it's not clear how he will progress.

Tbh though Brown reminds me of Conor Garland (maybe not in play style, but upside/pedigree) and I doubt people value him as high as Brown is.

Garland like Mangiapane aren't as far along in their development. Brown has proven himself now for 2 years in the AHL as well. That's not to say those players aren't capable of that or that they have lower upside because of it, because they don't, it's just when you prove it twice at the AHL level after proving it at the OHL level like Brown did you're further along and it usually counts for more when looking at the likelyhood to reach your ceiling side of things so I think that's why Brown would be slightly higher because of that.

The same way a Poirier will be ranked higher than a Timashov, similar CHL production but Poirier has proven it in the AHL because he's further along in his development

Now Garland with his 2 120+ point seasons might get extra weight to move him up in comparison because of that I don't know. Not exactly sure where's he's slotted in on mosts list, just saying that the more you prove it moving to the AHL as well you seem to get more credit for it in relation to similar guys at the CHL level.

 

[4thline]

Geez I can't believe I forgot that the Flames had Shinkaruk. There's your perfect Brown comparable, same age,average to undersized scoring wingers, draft pedigree to Shink, defensive game and offensive performance for the last three years to Brown.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Connor Brown:
3 Years in the OHL
199 games, 250 points 1.26PPG

2 Years in the AHL
110 games, 90 points .82PPG

7 NHL games, 6 points (obviously very small sample)

We don't need to "pump his tires", they are plenty pumped already,

Uhhh isn't it kind of ridiculous to use OHL stats and not tell the whole story? As in he only really put up a significant amount of points in his over age year.
The year before he was barely over a point/game and the year before he was under a point/game.

Even using AHL states can be misleading, Linden Vey is very similar to Brown in both points and playing style and look what has happened to him. Just saying.

 

[Atomos2]

Five Connor Browns don't get you a Mark Jankowski.

One Gauthier should get the job done. They're kinda in the same boat. Terrible first round picks.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Uhhh isn't it kind of ridiculous to use OHL stats and not tell the whole story, as in he only really put up a significant amount of points in his over age year? The year before he was barely over a point/game and the year before he was under a point/game.

Even using AHL states can be misleading, Linden Vey is very similar to Brown in both points and playing style and look what has happened to him. Just saying.

sigh, not this again.

Connr Brown did not play his overage year.

That year he put up 128 points was his final normal age year. His OHL overage year he was busy being the AHL's leading rookie scorer. The math isn't hard guys, this is the 4th time I've heard this myth in the last month alone

 

[garyturner3]

You neglect to mention Mangiapane's 106 in 59 translates to 122 in 68.

Or that Brown was playing with Connor McDavid.

Or that Mangiapanehad 61 goals in the 74 OHL games he played in his final OHL season (which were all before he turned 20), Brown had 53 in 82 (and he turned 20 in January that season) - Eatbread scoring 27.5% more goals. Prospects that can score goals are inherently more valuable than playmaking prospects.

Either way, even if we could agree that due to his AHL experience, Brown and Eatbread are equals, that would still put Brown at around our T10th best prospect.

Tier I
Jankowski
Kylington
Tkachuk
----------
Tier II
Andersson
Gillies
Shinkaruk
McDonald
Hickey
-----------
Tier III
Kulak
Mangiapane/Brown
Ollas-Mattsson
----------
Tier IV
Poirier/Kapanen
Parsons

Why we're trading a Tier I prospect / Tier II prospect for guys that would be Tier III and Tier IV prospects is what I find crazy. But to each his own. But FWIW I would offer Shinkaruk for Brown since we need right-shot prospects.

I love how you and some other posters here can completely disregard the many prospect rankings that are done by actual sports analysts (tsn, espn, etc) and are available online for you to read. Pick one, any one, and you'll see Brown ranked ahead of every single guy in your list except for the obvious Tkachuk and at most 1/2 other guys. But sure, we should put more stock in your personal rankings of your favourite team's prospects because that can't possibly be biased right?

 

[Halla]

nah, we dont really need guys that are 2nd pairing ceiling types.
If the leafs are moving Brown, its for a better prospect

 

[Halla]

Uhhh isn't it kind of ridiculous to use OHL stats and not tell the whole story? As in he only really put up a significant amount of points in his over age year.
The year before he was barely over a point/game and the year before he was under a point/game.

Even using AHL states can be misleading, Linden Vey is very similar to Brown in both points and playing style and look what has happened to him. Just saying.

Connor browns "overage" year, he was the AHL rookie scoring leader.
nice try though

 

[InfinityIggy]

Geez I can't believe I forgot that the Flames had Shinkaruk. There's your perfect Brown comparable, same age,average to undersized scoring wingers, draft pedigree to Shink, defensive game and offensive performance for the last three years to Brown.

Yeah I would rank Brown in the same tier of prospect as Shinkaruk. Slight edge Brown.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

I love how you and some other posters here can completely disregard the many prospect rankings that are done by actual sports analysts (tsn, espn, etc) and are available online for you to read. Pick one, any one, and you'll see Brown ranked ahead of every single guy in your list except for the obvious Tkachuk and at most 1/2 other guys. But sure, we should put more stock in your personal rankings of your favourite team's prospects because that can't possibly be biased right?

http://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-50-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.436669

Brown doesn't even get mentioned behind such dynamos as Andreas Johnson, Dmitryo Timoshov laugh. Mangiapane, Jankowski, Andersson, Gillies, Hickey, Shinkaruk do get mentioned.

Take your own advice.

(Not that these lists mean anything.)

Yeah I would rank Brown in the same tier of prospect as Shinkaruk. Slight edge Brown.

Shinkaruk is a far superior goal scorer at the AHL level.

 

[Advanced stats]

http://www.tsn.ca/tsn-hockey-s-top-50-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.436669



Shinkaruk is a far superior goal scorer at the AHL level.

Oh yeah? Based on what exactly? Stats? Brown's goals per game is virtually identical to Shinkaruk's and Brown's PPG is substantially better.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Brown's goals per game is virtually identical to Shinkaruk's

Um:

The YOUNGER SHinkaruk had 27 goals in 62 games (0.435 GPG)
Brown had 11 goals in 34 games (0.324 GPG)

That's the difference between a 36 goal pace and a 27 goal pace. The goal scoring difference between Crosby and Derick Brassard.

And assists stats mean little without factoring in linemate quality.

It's fine if Leafs fans think they prefer their own kid, but let's not make up facts like "Brown's goals per game is virtually identical to Shinkaruk's"

 

[Advanced stats]

Um:

The YOUNGER SHinkaruk had 27 goals in 62 games (0.435 GPG)
Brown had 11 goals in 34 games (0.324 GPG)

That's the difference between a 36 goal pace and a 27 goal pace. The goal scoring difference between Crosby and Derick Brassard.

And assists stats mean little without factoring in linemate quality.

It's fine if Leafs fans prefer their own kid, but let's not make up facts like "Brown's goals per game is virtually identical to Shinkaruk's"

Same birth year/draft year...

And also my apologies for this past season. Brown was too busy tearing up the NHL, to bother with AHL goals.

Career GPG:

Brown.. 32 goals in 110 games. .29 GPG.

Shinkaruk.. 43 goals in 136 games.. .31 GPG.

That's literally a matter of 2 goals. Virtually the same.


And Brown is the much much better playmaker.

Has a .82 PPG vs Shinkaruk's .60.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Same birth year/draft year...

Nine Months.
Brown 2012
Shinkaruk 2013

Brown was too busy tearing up the NHL, to bother with AHL goals.

Ahh yes, seven games, 1 goal and 15.52% on-ice SH% (the fourth highest in the NHL among 100 minute guys).

"Tearing up the NHL"

#sustainable.

Career GPG:

Are you really going to include SHinkaruk's rookie season, where he was buried on the Comets' 3rd/4th lines? Well to each his own.

And Brown is the much much better playmaker.

Has a .82 PPG vs Shinkaruk's .60.

Or maybe Brown plays on a more offensive team, and most recently easier AHL division.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Uhhh isn't it kind of ridiculous to use OHL stats and not tell the whole story? As in he only really put up a significant amount of points in his over age year.
The year before he was barely over a point/game and the year before he was under a point/game.

Even using AHL states can be misleading, Linden Vey is very similar to Brown in both points and playing style and look what has happened to him. Just saying.

My bad, math is clearly not my forte.

 

[LeafsNation149]

Brown > Any prospect on Flames not named Tkachuk

 

[Kelly]

Five Connor Browns don't get you a Mark Jankowski.

Haha you're on a roll in this thread, you clearly need to watch Connor Brown play. He's going to be in the NHL this year so it won't be hard.

Brown and Kapanen would be top 5 prospects for the Flames just like they are for the Leafs, who have a better prospect pool.

 

[Advanced stats]

Kinda a losing battle for you..and wow you love to pick stats.




Ahh yes, seven games, 1 goal and 15.52% on-ice SH% (the fourth highest in the NHL among 100 minute guys).

"Tearing up the NHL"

#sustainable.


Are you really going to include SHinkaruk's rookie season, where he was buried on the Comets' 3rd/4th lines? Well to each his own.





Or maybe Brown plays on a more offensive team, and most recently easier AHL division.

Yepp one goal. But you failed to mention his 6 points....which is already more than Shinkaruks total, in less games.



Well the good news is, I also included Brown's rookie season....in which he scored more points...at a younger age.....
#awkward.


Not true either. For the vast majority of their AHL careers they played in the same division!!!

In 2014-15 Utica was the better team and scored more goals than the marlies.

In 2015-16 Toronto was the better team and scored more goals than Utica.

Seems fair too me.

I will maintain again that Brown is the much better player and slots in as a top 2-4 prospect in the flames system.

If it wasn't for Brown being a late round pick, and the strange notion that he was carried by Mcdavid, people would see him in a much better way.

Also can't help but notice that Brown was just selected by HF as the 45th best rookie....Shinkaruk....not selected yet....Jankowski...not yet either

 

[Magic Man]

I would like both of the Flames prospects. But, I am not interested in moving Brown or Kapanen. The Leafs have some comparable D prospects. I think they stick with what they have for now.

 

[DJJones]

I would like both of the Flames prospects. But, I am not interested in moving Brown or Kapanen. The Leafs have some comparable D prospects. I think they stick with what they have for now.

If they have comparable D prospects why are they looking to trade Brown?

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Brown and Kapanen would be top 5 prospects for the Flames just like they are for the Leafs, who have a better prospect pool.

Keep on believing that Leafs fans. Just because you have three top seven picks including a #1OA in your prospect pool means all your other prospects are suddenly world-beaters.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I prefer our prospects, pass.

 

[Mr Hockey*]

Keep on believing that Leafs fans. Just because you have three top seven picks including a #1OA in your prospect pool means all your other prospects are suddenly world-beaters.

This is true but we have a **** load of next level prospects, Timashov, Dzierkals, Korshkov, Grundström, Lindberg, Kapanen, Johnson, etc

 

[Kelly]

Keep on believing that Leafs fans. Just because you have three top seven picks including a #1OA in your prospect pool means all your other prospects are suddenly world-beaters.

The flames top prospects (outside of Tkachuk) are comparable to the Leafs second tier prospects, you're clearly the one overrating here.

Andersson
Kylington
Jankowski
Shinkaruk

vs

Dermott
Nielsen
Kapanen
Brown

Looks pretty close to me.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

The flames top prospects (outside of Tkachuk) are comparable to the Leafs second tier prospects, you're clearly the one overrating here.

Andersson
Kylington
Jankowski
Shinkaruk

vs

Dermott
Nielsen
Kapanen
Brown

Looks pretty close to me.

You would be hard pressed to find a non Leafs fan who would trade the first group for the second. And somehow the first group doesn't even include Gillies, Mangiapane or Hickey who are quite easily all better prospects than the second group. Or McDonald/Poirier/Parsons/Kulak who all beat out most of the second group.

But believe what you want to believe.

Point is, Brown/Kapanen do not get you Kylington nor Andersson.