Value of: Brown/Kapanen for Kylington/Andersson

[OvermanKingGainer]

Brown is a top 5 on ANY team in the league.

Nearly every team has a Connor Brown-tier prospect:

Ducks - Nick Sorensen (#9)
Coyotes - Nick Merkley (#9)
Bruins - Austin Czarnik (No Poll)
Devils - Joseph Blandisi (#6)
Sharks - Kevin Labanc (#5)
Avalanche - Cam Morrison (#8)
Hurricanes - Aleksi Saarela (#8)
Flames - Andrew Mangiapane (#9)
Canucks - Brendan Gaunce (#6)
Sens - Jonathan Dahlen (#5)
Jets - Nic Petan (#5)
Oilers - Drake Cagiulla (#2)
Canadiens - N/A
Blues - Ty Rattie (#7)
Sabres - N/A
Kings - Spencer Watson (no poll)
Red Wings - N/A
Stars - Roope Hintz (#10)
Lightning - Nikita Gusev (#9)
PRedators - Rem Pitlick (no poll)

etc. These teams would not eagerly trade these players 1:1 for Connor Brown or not at all depending on system need. Well the Blues might with Rattie hitting waiver eligibility this year.

Connor Brown is not a top 5 prospect on any team just because he had some inflated on-ice SH% in his tiny NHL sample size and happens to play in an organization that is in the centre of the hockey world with an NHL squad with dozens of roster spot openings.

 

[natephil]

Nearly every team has a Connor Brown-tier prospect:

Ducks - Nick Sorensen (#9)
Coyotes - Nick Merkley (#9)
Bruins - Austin Czarnik (No Poll)
Devils - Joseph Blandisi (#6)
Sharks - Kevin Labanc (#5)
Avalanche - Cam Morrison (#8)
Hurricanes - Aleksi Saarela (#8)
Flames - Andrew Mangiapane (#9)
Canucks - Brendan Gaunce (#6)
Sens - Jonathan Dahlen (#5)
Jets - Nic Petan (#5)
Oilers - Drake Cagiulla (#2)
Canadiens - N/A
Blues - Ty Rattie (#7)
Sabres - N/A
Kings - Spencer Watson (no poll)
Red Wings - N/A
Stars - Roope Hintz (#10)
Lightning - Nikita Gusev (#9)
PRedators - Rem Pitlick (no poll)

etc. These teams would not eagerly trade these players 1:1 for Connor Brown or not at all depending on system need. Well the Blues might with Rattie hitting waiver eligibility this year.

Connor Brown is not a top 5 prospect on any team just because he had some inflated on-ice SH% in his tiny NHL sample size and happens to play in an organization that is in the centre of the hockey world with an NHL squad with dozens of roster spot openings.

You just went through random teams (leaving out multiple teams) and found random names that I believe you don't even know who half of these players are and compared them to a guy I think after reading six pages you don't know either. There is maybe one or two guys that can be compared to Brown from this list. I'm not pumping Browns tires. I am just commenting (which I never do but somehow some drinks and reading your comments made me log on) and mention how absolutely random this list of players is. We have plenty of them on the leafs board.

Also all this undersized I hear about Brown is based on when he was drafted at like 5'8" 145lbs. He's now 6' and 185lbs as of last season.

Another comment I read was how he produced because of McDavid (who he didn't play on a line with) and how he only produced later in his OHL career (had 53 points in 68 games as a rookie on a team that won 10 games all year which got them the chance to draft McDavid and still lead that team in points) The guy led his team in points all three years in the OHL and his rookie year with the Marlies (broken foot stopped him from probably leading the Marlies this year)

The biggest thing with Brown is that with all his offensive production, he is continuously one of the top penalty killers and defensive minded players on the Marlies. The value isn't all in these point productions that are being compared.

 

[Advanced stats]

Nearly every team has a Connor Brown-tier prospect:

Ducks - Nick Sorensen (#9)
Coyotes - Nick Merkley (#9)
Bruins - Austin Czarnik (No Poll)
Devils - Joseph Blandisi (#6)
Sharks - Kevin Labanc (#5)
Avalanche - Cam Morrison (#8)
Hurricanes - Aleksi Saarela (#8)
Flames - Andrew Mangiapane (#9)
Canucks - Brendan Gaunce (#6)
Sens - Jonathan Dahlen (#5)
Jets - Nic Petan (#5)
Oilers - Drake Cagiulla (#2)
Canadiens - N/A
Blues - Ty Rattie (#7)
Sabres - N/A
Kings - Spencer Watson (no poll)
Red Wings - N/A
Stars - Roope Hintz (#10)
Lightning - Nikita Gusev (#9)
PRedators - Rem Pitlick (no poll)

etc. These teams would not eagerly trade these players 1:1 for Connor Brown or not at all depending on system need. Well the Blues might with Rattie hitting waiver eligibility this year.

Connor Brown is not a top 5 prospect on any team just because he had some inflated on-ice SH% in his tiny NHL sample size and happens to play in an organization that is in the centre of the hockey world with an NHL squad with dozens of roster spot openings.

And how many of those players have out produced Brown? At the OHL level or AHL?

What are these players being better than Brown based on? We need something other than your own biased opinions and your random selection of prospects.

 

[MacerV]

Connor Brown is not a top 5 prospect on any team just because he had some inflated on-ice SH% in his tiny NHL sample size[/B] and happens to play in an organization that is in the centre of the hockey world with an NHL squad with dozens of roster spot openings.

He only had 1 goal and his shot % was 9.1% which is in the normal range of shot percentages for forwards. Most of his points were assists.

 

[Banic]

He only had 1 goal and his shot % was 9.1% which is in the normal range of shot percentages for forwards. Most of his points were assists.

Lol.. Its funny when people get publicly outed by facts.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

He only had 1 goal and his shot % was 9.1% which is in the normal range of shot percentages for forwards. Most of his points were assists.

His on-ice SH℅ was inflated. As in, 15.25 ℅ of the shots his TEAM took found the back of the net when he was on the ice. 6.77℅ of the shots they took when he was off the ice found the back of the net. Do the math, no player not even Patrick Kane nor Connor McDavid can make their team that likely to score goals over a sample size bigger than his ~100 minutes. And as you admit he himself shot in a normal range for forwards, which means he actually dragged down his on-ice SH℅. His team excluding him while he was on the ice scored 8 times on 40 shots. That is a SH℅ of 20℅ for the teammates he was on the ice with. His teammates shoot a normal percentage (Leafs SH℅ was 7.6℅) and his five assists quickly become two.

1G, 2A, in 7 Games is not unusual and not especially impressive for a 22 year old winger being given generous PP time. In fact that would be a worse stat line than 21 year old Shinkaruk who has 2G 1A in 7 games.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Brown absolutely had a bit inflated point totals in his NHL stint. It's not only the on-ice shooting percentage, from what I remember he wasn't really the one driving the offense on most of those goals either.

However, he is a very good prospect who absolutely would be at or around the top 5 for most teams in the league. In that list provided, I'd only put a few at the same level as prospects. Most either didn't perform as well, or didn't have the same sample size of high-end performance, or lacks the two-way game.

That might sound homerish, and I'm aware of that. However, it's also a comparison between a top 5 prospect on one of the best prospect pools in the league and prospects that often rank 6-10 in pools not as highly thought of. Just from that perspective, Brown should be better, although some of them are terrific prospects that a lot of people sleep on (like Czarnik and Mangiapane).

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Just from that perspective, Brown should be better, although some of them are terrific prospects that a lot of people sleep on (like Czarnik and Mangiapane).

They are all terrific prospects. In fact I eould take a kid like Pitlick, Morrison, Gusev, or Watson over Brown easily. Maybe Brown edges out a guy like Gaunce, maybe he doesn't.

Anyone pretending Brown is an A prospect is kidding themselves. And the Leafs pool is only thought highly of because of Matthews (#1OA), Marner (#4OA), Nylander (#7OA) and I guess Zaitsev if you want to count him as a prospect. You could have a facepunching plug as your #5 prospect and your pool would still be the best in the league.

Brown is a good peospect. However he is an ordinary prospect and nearly everyone has one of him, maybe not the same age but the same kind of projection.

 

[slimbob8]

Nearly every team has a Connor Brown-tier prospect:

Ducks - Nick Sorensen (#9)
Coyotes - Nick Merkley (#9)
Bruins - Austin Czarnik (No Poll)
Devils - Joseph Blandisi (#6)
Sharks - Kevin Labanc (#5)
Avalanche - Cam Morrison (#8)
Hurricanes - Aleksi Saarela (#8)
Flames - Andrew Mangiapane (#9)
Canucks - Brendan Gaunce (#6)
Sens - Jonathan Dahlen (#5)
Jets - Nic Petan (#5)
Oilers - Drake Cagiulla (#2)
Canadiens - N/A
Blues - Ty Rattie (#7)
Sabres - N/A
Kings - Spencer Watson (no poll)
Red Wings - N/A
Stars - Roope Hintz (#10)
Lightning - Nikita Gusev (#9)
PRedators - Rem Pitlick (no poll)

etc. These teams would not eagerly trade these players 1:1 for Connor Brown or not at all depending on system need. Well the Blues might with Rattie hitting waiver eligibility this year.

Connor Brown is not a top 5 prospect on any team just because he had some inflated on-ice SH% in his tiny NHL sample size and happens to play in an organization that is in the centre of the hockey world with an NHL squad with dozens of roster spot openings.

Dude, you need to stop. You are seriously embarrassing yourself in this thread with your over the top homerism. Sure most teams have a Connor Brown type prospect, but he's still a great prospect either way. It's generally agreed right now among hockey analysts that Toronto has the best prospect pool in the league. Whether you agree that they're #1 or not, it's indisputable that they're near the top in that regard. Brown is in the Leafs' top 5 prospects:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/t...25-under-25-top-5-kicks-off-with-connor-brown

So whatever backwards logic you're using to imagine he's not a top 10 prospect on your team or any other team in the league is downright foolish and the majority of fans here realize it. Hence the reason you've got so many responses to your posts arguing with you. When you have that many people disagreeing with you (including a lot of Flames fans) something should click in your head and you should at least realize your biased opinion on this is at most an unpopular one.

 

[4thline]

Yeah I would rank Brown in the same tier of prospect as Shinkaruk. Slight edge Brown.

Agreed, though really only because of the two way game factor + Brown trending better since 17. Kid has a serious will to get better.

That being said I wouldn't trade Kylington if I were in your shoes, IMO you guys got a steal.

Combined prospect pools

Matthews/Marner/Nylander
Tkachuk/Kylington

Everyone else (Brown, Shink, Kappy, Andersson, Jankowski, Dermott, Neilsen etc)

 

[scan15*]

Brown is a guaranteed NHLer, though top 6 or bottom 6 hasn't been determined yet.

Kapanen is only 20 and he's actually progressing at a reasonable rate. Sometimes he looks like a 1st liner and other times he will disappear.

I'm not interested in trading either of them for offensive dmen prospects with glaring holes in their defensive game.

 

[BlueBaron]

His on-ice SH℅ was inflated. As in, 15.25 ℅ of the shots his TEAM took found the back of the net when he was on the ice. 6.77℅ of the shots they took when he was off the ice found the back of the net. Do the math, no player not even Patrick Kane nor Connor McDavid can make their team that likely to score goals over a sample size bigger than his ~100 minutes. And as you admit he himself shot in a normal range for forwards, which means he actually dragged down his on-ice SH℅. His team excluding him while he was on the ice scored 8 times on 40 shots. That is a SH℅ of 20℅ for the teammates he was on the ice with. His teammates shoot a normal percentage (Leafs SH℅ was 7.6℅) and his five assists quickly become two.

1G, 2A, in 7 Games is not unusual and not especially impressive for a 22 year old winger being given generous PP time. In fact that would be a worse stat line than 21 year old Shinkaruk who has 2G 1A in 7 games.

Problem is Brown had 1 goal and 5 assists for 6 points in 7 games. This is especially impressive if not for the tiny sample size. You are trying really hard and failing miserably.

 

[Blitzago*]

Problem is Brown had 1 goal and 5 assists for 6 points in 7 games. This is especially impressive if not for the tiny sample size. You are trying really hard and failing miserably.

It happen's often.

 

[Advanced stats]

Problem is Brown had 1 goal and 5 assists for 6 points in 7 games. This is especially impressive if not for the tiny sample size. You are trying really hard and failing miserably.

None of the other Calgary homers are agreeing with him either lol.

 

[Nithoniniel]

They are all terrific prospects. In fact I eould take a kid like Pitlick, Morrison, Gusev, or Watson over Brown easily. Maybe Brown edges out a guy like Gaunce, maybe he doesn't.

Anyone pretending Brown is an A prospect is kidding themselves. And the Leafs pool is only thought highly of because of Matthews (#1OA), Marner (#4OA), Nylander (#7OA) and I guess Zaitsev if you want to count him as a prospect. You could have a facepunching plug as your #5 prospect and your pool would still be the best in the league.

Brown is a good peospect. However he is an ordinary prospect and nearly everyone has one of him, maybe not the same age but the same kind of projection.

It's kind of daring to put guys who have not yet reached NCAA as better prospects than a guy who performs at a high level in the AHL. You mention players having the same projection, but when that's the case and they are much further away at realizing that projection then they are not as good prospects. Same upside, lower chance of hitting it. You mention Nick Merkley, who is just coming off a season where he barely outproduced Brown while playing junior hockey. You mention Saarela, who is performing worse in a similar league than Andreas Johnson at #10 in our rankings, yet he is better than anything we have outside our top group? There's just not much of a case there. None in fact. I'm not saying Brown belongs in a top 50 prospect ranking, but it's entirely justified to say he'd be on most teams top 5. If you want to claim otherwise, you need to bring better arguments than that.

Secondly, of course our top ranking is based on having three of the best prospects, but there isn't much of a case to be made that the depth isn't good. You mention a facepunching plug as prospect, but that ignores that even after our top 10, we have a PPG two-way D-man coming out of junior. We have guys like Tobias Lindberg, Leivo and Dzierkals outside out top 20. Your facepunching prospect would have to beat out a 23-year old goalie who is already a great AHL tender to be even in the top 30. The high-class depth is there.

 

[Calgareee]

Problem is Brown had 1 goal and 5 assists for 6 points in 7 games. This is especially impressive if not for the tiny sample size. You are trying really hard and failing miserably.

I'm not necessarily agreeing with the argument being put forward but Im not sure you read his whole post. (I rarely do either) but he is essentially saying that if you reduced the on ice shooting percentage of the other players on the ice with Connor Brown's 5 assists to the leafs average over the season instead of an unsustainable ~20% then Brown ends up with ~1 goal and 2 assists.

That is not an unreasonable conclusion based on the statistics available and even if over a shot sample puts him at ~0.42 PPG which is still very respectable but essentially meaningless due to the sample size.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

You mention Saarela, who is performing worse in a similar league than Andreas Johnson at #10 in our rankings

Incidentally TSN had Andreas Johnson ahead of Connor Brown in their Leafs rankings so....

 

[Mr Hockey*]

Incidentally TSN had Andreas Johnson ahead of Connor Brown in their Leafs rankings so....

Brown is a fan favourite type prospect, he has been around a little while and he is an overachieving type of player. The Leafs fan base love him like a son!

 

[Halla]

They are all terrific prospects. In fact I eould take a kid like Pitlick, Morrison, Gusev, or Watson over Brown easily. Maybe Brown edges out a guy like Gaunce, maybe he doesn't.

Anyone pretending Brown is an A prospect is kidding themselves. And the Leafs pool is only thought highly of because of Matthews (#1OA), Marner (#4OA), Nylander (#7OA) and I guess Zaitsev if you want to count him as a prospect. You could have a facepunching plug as your #5 prospect and your pool would still be the best in the league.

Brown is a good peospect. However he is an ordinary prospect and nearly everyone has one of him, maybe not the same age but the same kind of projection.

every team in the league has a guy who was the rookie scoring leader in the AHL? who is that guy on the flames? poirier?

Poirier 71 pts in 115 AHL games, 1 pt in 8 NHL games
Brown 90 pts in 110 AHL games, 6 pts in 7 NHL games

not a chance does every team have 5 better prospects than this guy.
brown probably is a 50-75 ish prospect, which would put him #2 or #3 on most teams (minus the leafs who have three top 10 guys already)

 

[Halla]

Nearly every team has a Connor Brown-tier prospect:

Ducks - Nick Sorensen (#9)
Coyotes - Nick Merkley (#9)
Bruins - Austin Czarnik (No Poll)
Devils - Joseph Blandisi (#6)
Sharks - Kevin Labanc (#5)
Avalanche - Cam Morrison (#8)
Hurricanes - Aleksi Saarela (#8)
Flames - Andrew Mangiapane (#9)
Canucks - Brendan Gaunce (#6)
Sens - Jonathan Dahlen (#5)
Jets - Nic Petan (#5)
Oilers - Drake Cagiulla (#2)
Canadiens - N/A
Blues - Ty Rattie (#7)
Sabres - N/A
Kings - Spencer Watson (no poll)
Red Wings - N/A
Stars - Roope Hintz (#10)
Lightning - Nikita Gusev (#9)
PRedators - Rem Pitlick (no poll)

etc. These teams would not eagerly trade these players 1:1 for Connor Brown or not at all depending on system need. Well the Blues might with Rattie hitting waiver eligibility this year. Ratie, who hasnt even cracked 50pts in THREE AHL seasons.

nah brown is better than most of these guys.

Connor Brown is not a top 5 prospect on any team just because he had some inflated on-ice SH% in his tiny NHL sample size and happens to play in an organization that is in the centre of the hockey world with an NHL squad with dozens of roster spot openings.

You are comparing Morrison who was appg in the USHL to Brown?
Spencer watson who was one of the last picks of the draft? Petan is the only one who probably has more value

 

[Man Bear Pig]

They are all terrific prospects. In fact I eould take a kid like Pitlick, Morrison, Gusev, or Watson over Brown easily. Maybe Brown edges out a guy like Gaunce, maybe he doesn't.

Anyone pretending Brown is an A prospect is kidding themselves. And the Leafs pool is only thought highly of because of Matthews (#1OA), Marner (#4OA), Nylander (#7OA) and I guess Zaitsev if you want to count him as a prospect. You could have a facepunching plug as your #5 prospect and your pool would still be the best in the league.

Brown is a good peospect. However he is an ordinary prospect and nearly everyone has one of him, maybe not the same age but the same kind of projection.

Nearly every team has a Connor Brown just sitting around eh? Sure, whatever helps you sleep at night.

 

[BlueBaron]

I'm not necessarily agreeing with the argument being put forward but Im not sure you read his whole post. (I rarely do either) but he is essentially saying that if you reduced the on ice shooting percentage of the other players on the ice with Connor Brown's 5 assists to the leafs average over the season instead of an unsustainable ~20% then Brown ends up with ~1 goal and 2 assists.

That is not an unreasonable conclusion based on the statistics available and even if over a shot sample puts him at ~0.42 PPG which is still very respectable but essentially meaningless due to the sample size.

Fact is that small sample means nothing either way and just illustrates how weak the guys case is. Stating "Every team has a Brown" is a joke. Lead OHL in scoring then was top rookie in the A. Every Team has a guy like that?

The fact is his low draft position makes people look down on him but he has produced at every level like a top tier player. If he was not a Leaf we would never hear the end of how awesome he is and what a brilliant pick he was. Instead people talk about him like he is a longshot to make the NHL. Few prospects have less to prove regardless of where they were drafted.

 

[Calgareee]

Fact is that small sample means nothing either way and just illustrates how weak the guys case is. Stating "Every team has a Brown" is a joke. Lead OHL in scoring then was top rookie in the A. Every Team has a guy like that?

The fact is his low draft position makes people look down on him but he has produced at every level like a top tier player. If he was not a Leaf we would never hear the end of how awesome he is and what a brilliant pick he was. Instead people talk about him like he is a longshot to make the NHL. Few prospects have less to prove regardless of where they were drafted.

I don't know a Brown well enough to make that call one way or the other but would agree he doesn't have anything else to prove at the A level and the next season is going to be a big one for him. There's definitely spots for him to fight for in camp.

Calgary has a couple winger spots, one likely will go to Shinkaruk (similar situation to Brown, big season for him) and the second one is a toss up. Next year there will be a couple D spots to fight for and I personally think that Kylington has the highest ceiling out of any of the prospects mentioned. Don't think any of our D prospects will be traded until after the start of next season at the earliest.

 

[Atomos2]

His on-ice SH℅ was inflated. As in, 15.25 ℅ of the shots his TEAM took found the back of the net when he was on the ice. 6.77℅ of the shots they took when he was off the ice found the back of the net. Do the math, no player not even Patrick Kane nor Connor McDavid can make their team that likely to score goals over a sample size bigger than his ~100 minutes. And as you admit he himself shot in a normal range for forwards, which means he actually dragged down his on-ice SH℅. His team excluding him while he was on the ice scored 8 times on 40 shots. That is a SH℅ of 20℅ for the teammates he was on the ice with. His teammates shoot a normal percentage (Leafs SH℅ was 7.6℅) and his five assists quickly become two.

1G, 2A, in 7 Games is not unusual and not especially impressive for a 22 year old winger being given generous PP time. In fact that would be a worse stat line than 21 year old Shinkaruk who has 2G 1A in 7 games.

Pretty weak argument to use in this small sample size. Of course on ice shooting pct is gonna be large if you end up being productive over a short sample size of like 7 games and are getting a decreased amount of minutes. You trying to make sense of such an insignificantly small amount of data is amusing though.

And its 1G and 5A in 7 games bud.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

At the end of this season this thread needs to be revisited...
Connor brown will be one of Toronto's best success story, local kid drafted really late who overcomes the odds to become a NHL regular or even get an A on his jersey.