Bratt & J. Hughes or B.Tkachuk & Stutzle?

[dgibb10]

Stutzle is better than Bratt, and I'm the biggest Bratt homer around.

He's more valuable because he's a center (and younger).

However over the last 2 years he's 0.2 goals and points/60 lower EV
0.5g/60 and 0.7 p/60 lower on the PP

Has a goal differential twice as bad on the PK (bratt a very impressive -2.57 vs stutzle 5.36, and the same edge in expected numbers). Neither have the PK quantity where I'd say they are massive difference makers but something to consider briefly.

And in terms of possession numbers Bratt is a level ahead.

I'll always take the center but Bratt has put together better results.

Edit: should mention Stutzle is better at drawing penalties. Some say it's because he dives but results are results

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He's more valuable because he's a center (and younger).

However over the last 2 years he's 0.2 goals and points/60 lower EV
0.5g/60 and 0.7 p/60 lower on the PP

Has a goal differential twice as bad on the PK (bratt a very impressive -2.57 vs stutzle 5.36, and the same edge in expected numbers). Neither have the PK quantity where I'd say they are massive difference makers but something to consider briefly.

And in terms of possession numbers Bratt is a level ahead.

I'll always take the center but Bratt has put together better results.

Yeah, but Stutzle was playing hurt last year. We've seen what he can do when healthy and he did that as a 20/21 year old.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah, but Stutzle was playing hurt last year. We've seen what he can do when healthy and he did that as a 20/21 year old.

Valid point.

My qualm is probably just on the fact that there's only the 1 year of that high level results.

If it was 2 or 3 very strong years (they're all strong but I assume you know what I mean by this), followed by an injured year, I'd be much more forgiving.

Bratt has done it 3 years straight (first is All situations, second EV)

I have to give credit to bratt for doing it all 3 years.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Nice, someone gets it, and points out the endless cherry picking, and ignore the rest.
34 combined hits for NJ

I’m done arguing with him. It’s almost as worst as arguing with my wife.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah, but Stutzle was playing hurt last year. We've seen what he can do when healthy and he did that as a 20/21 year old.

Overall I'd have it ranked

Jack

GAP

Nico
Stutzle

Smaller gap

Tkachuk
Bratt

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Valid point.

My qualm is probably just on the fact that there's only the 1 year of that high level results.

If it was 2 or 3 very strong years (they're all strong but I assume you know what I mean by this), followed by an injured year, I'd be much more forgiving.

Bratt has done it 3 years straight (first is All situations, second EV)
View attachment 900975
View attachment 900976

I have to give credit to bratt for doing it all 3 years.

Hard to hold his lack of track record against him considering he's only 22 (and has been playing on a dumpster fire of an organization for his entire career).

That's like the people who were skeptical of Jack because he had a slow start to his career.

Stutzle shot at 2.9% on the power play and still scored 70 points in 75 games, his wrist was clearly impacting his shot.

If you want to add to that sample, it's 210 points in his last 211 going back to early December of his sophomore season (coincidentally, that is right around the time he was converted to center). And he's done that while being his team's #1 offensive threat.

Bratt also has 210 points in that same time frame, but he did it in 7 more games while being surrounded by better offensive support and playing the easier position. Bratt is incredible, but he also benefits from playing pretty much exclusively with one of the top 1-2 center punches in the league.

I love love love Bratt but Stutzle could legitimately be a top 10 center in the league if he's healthy this year.

Hughes
Matthews
Crosby
Draisaitl
McDavid
Mackinnon
Barkov
Eichel

Those are the only 8 centers I'd for sure take ahead of him next year. I expect he'll be competing with guys like Aho, Hischier, Point, Bedard, Thompson, Pettersson, Miller, Larkin, Thomas, and Kopitar for the last 2 spots in the top 10. And honestly, he has the potential to leap frog at least a couple of the top 8 guys I listed if things go well.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Overall I'd have it ranked

Jack

GAP

Nico
Stutzle

Smaller gap

Tkachuk
Bratt

This is probably fair, though I don't see a huge gap between Jack and Timmy.

Jack > Stutzle >= Hischier >= Bratt ~ Tkachuk

 

[dgibb10]

Hard to hold his lack of track record against him considering he's only 22 (and has been playing on a dumpster fire of an organization for his entire career).

That's like the people who were skeptical of Jack because he had a slow start to his career.

Stutzle shot at 2.9% on the power play and still scored 70 points in 75 games, his wrist was clearly impacting his shot.

If you want to add to that sample, it's 210 points in his last 211 going back to early December of his sophomore season (coincidentally, that is right around the time he was converted to center). And he's done that while being his team's #1 offensive threat.

Bratt also has 210 points in that same time frame, but he did it in 7 more games while being surrounded by better offensive support and playing the easier position. Bratt is incredible, but he also benefits from playing pretty much exclusively with one of the top 1-2 center punches in the league.

I love love love Bratt but Stutzle could legitimately be a top 10 center in the league if he's healthy this year.

Hughes
Matthews
Crosby
Draisaitl
McDavid
Mackinnon
Barkov
Eichel

Those are the only 8 centers I'd for sure take ahead of him next year. I expect he'll be competing with guys like Aho, Hischier, Point, Bedard, Thompson, Pettersson, Miller, Larkin, Thomas, and Kopitar for the last 2 spots in the top 10. And honestly, he has the potential to leap frog at least a couple of the top 8 guys I listed if things go well.

If he plays or improves on how he was in 22-23 he will 100% shoot up my rankings like a damn rocket.

I'm just going to, I guess be a bit patient in completely writing off a bad (by star standards) season for a guy who has only had the 1 truly high level season. I still have him in the mid teens for centers (there are quite a few guys that you could argue about in this range)

Important to consider with ottawa is that they have had by far the most PP opportunities in the league over the last 3 years, which can inflate the numbers for the PP1 guys to an extent.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Valid point.

My qualm is probably just on the fact that there's only the 1 year of that high level results.

If it was 2 or 3 very strong years (they're all strong but I assume you know what I mean by this), followed by an injured year, I'd be much more forgiving.

Bratt has done it 3 years straight (first is All situations, second EV)
View attachment 900975
View attachment 900976

I have to give credit to bratt for doing it all 3 years.

So you agree Stutzle played the year injured, and couldn’t shoot because of wrist and shoulder/neck injury. So his goal total shrunk in half, but set career highs in assists as he couldn’t shoot.

How can you have 2-3 strong years behind you at 20/21, but I assume you knew this, and then you compare it to the older Bratt lol.

 

[dgibb10]

This is probably fair, though I don't see a huge gap between Jack and Timmy.

Jack > Stutzle >= Hischier >= Bratt ~ Tkachuk

I could see you getting behind Stutzle over Nico based on what you've said and your arguments. Completely valid.

I like Nico's solid defense (although imo his defense is actually overrated lmao, and it's his offensive play driving that is very very underrated and has been his entire career).

I have Jack a tier above. I don't think stutzle will reach that high level PP weapon level, and imo doesn't have the 5v5 upside either.

Jack played most of this year with an injured shoulder and still put up 3.41 points/60, whereas stutzle peaked at 3.26

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If he plays or improves on how he was in 22-23 he will 100% shoot up my rankings like a damn rocket.

I'm just going to, I guess be a bit patient in completely writing off a bad (by star standards) season for a guy who has only had the 1 truly high level season. I still have him in the mid teens for centers (there are quite a few guys that you could argue about in this range)

Important to consider with ottawa is that they have had by far the most PP opportunities in the league over the last 3 years, which can inflate the numbers for the PP1 guys to an extent.

Yeah he has certainly benefitted from that PP time, and he was incredibly lethal PP weapon with a healthy wrist.

5v5 he needs to improve (so does the whole team), but his scoring efficiency didn't really drop off that much from last year - he only had 3 less 5v5 points in 3 less games this year despite his shooting percentage dropping from 14.6% to 8.9%.

Breakdown of his 20 point drop:
8 less PP points (9 less PP goals)
4 less EN points
3 less 5v5 points
2 less other ES points
3 less SH points

So it's pretty much just PP shooting and EN points that make up the majority of the difference between this year and last.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah he has certainly benefitted from that PP time, and he was incredibly lethal PP weapon with a healthy wrist.

5v5 he needs to improve (so does the whole team), but his scoring efficiency didn't really drop off that much from last year - he only had 3 less 5v5 points in 3 less games this year despite his shooting percentage dropping from 14.6% to 8.9%.

Breakdown of his 20 point drop:
8 less PP points (9 less PP goals)
4 less EN points
3 less 5v5 points
2 less other ES points
3 less SH points

So it's pretty much just PP shooting and EN points that make up the majority of the difference between this year and last.

I use EV strength and PP seperated mostly so empty net points tend to be completelt ignored by me, as I view them as mostly flukey. (shorthanded points are also pretty flukey, and I don't like to give credit to guys getting PK points if they give it all back the other way.

NYI is a good example of that PK last year. Sure, they finished 3rd in the league in goals/60 on the kill (1.75), but also gave up 10.69 goals/60 on the kill, dead last in the league.

I like to use net differentials to try and evaluate PK performance (it's not easy, and a lot of PK stuff does unfortunately become somewhat narrative/reputation related)

Stutzle's EV production dropped, especially in primary points where he went from 1.95 to 1.41 per 60.

The PP aspect may have something to it, but again, his primary assists also cratered there (how much of this is due to the loss of high level PP weapon Alex Debrincat)

I like Stutzle, I have him in the same tier as Nico Hischier. I simply think he's a step down from Jack Hughes.

I also think pencilling him in as a guarantee to be better than the 1 truly high level season he's had isn't a sure thing.

If he plays up to his potential next year, as I've said he will shoot up my rankings, probably around the borderline of top 10 depending on how others play

(Mcdavid, Drai, Mack, Matthews, Hughes, Point, Barkov, Pettersson) will probably be locked into top 10 slots, with any of Larkin, Suzuki, Eichel, Aho, Miller, Crosby, Stutzle, Hischier, Larkin, Hintz, Bedard, Thomas, etc probably in a range heavily dependent on next years performance.

 

[dgibb10]

So you agree Stutzle played the year injured, and couldn’t shoot because of wrist and shoulder/neck injury. So his goal total shrunk in half, but set career highs in assists as he couldn’t shoot.

How can you have 2-3 strong years behind you at 20/21, but I assume you knew this, and then you compare it to the older Bratt lol.

Surely you would not be one to give no excuses for injuries.

If I pointed out that Timo Meier has produced very similar results to Brady Tkachuk outside of the 2 months he was playing with 2 injured knees and could barely skate, would you accept that?

Aren't you the one consistently belittling Jack because he wasn't healthy this past year (he still produced at a better rate than any year of stutzles career)?

Stutzle's current issue is he only has 1 year of high level of play to value him off. Simple as that.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Surely you would not be one to give no excuses for injuries.

If I pointed out that Timo Meier has produced very similar results to Brady Tkachuk outside of the 2 months he was playing with 2 injured knees and could barely skate, would you accept that?

Aren't you the one consistently belittling Jack because he wasn't healthy this past year (he still produced at a better rate than any year of stutzles career)?

Stutzle's current issue is he only has 1 year of high level of play to value him off. Simple as that.

lol you replied, but zero comments on what you replied to, something totally different.
Always with ignore, when you’re wrong, and some new goalposts to move.

No comment on the career high assist when couldn’t shoot.
And zero comments on this.

How can you have 2-3 strong years behind you at 20/21, but I assume you knew this, and then you compare it to the older Bratt lol.

I’m not seeing anything from Bratt until D+5, where he was approaching ppg, and broke it in D+7 by a point.

If you want to reply address what’s in the reply. Not with ya buts.

 

[Silky Johnson]

By D+3 Stutzle was already quite a bit behind Jack in P/60.

And then you can't simply give stutzle credit for something he didn't do.

Jack played with a shoulder injury all year, and guess what he STILL did.

3.41 points/60. 0.15 higher than Stutzles career high.

Healthy jack is significantly ahead of healthy stutzle. Injured Jack is significantly ahead of injured stutzle

Jack became a 3.81 points/60 player in D+4
Stutzle dropped to 2.65

Stutzle was closer to in points/60 to Brett Leason (351st in the league), than he was to D+4 Jack

That and tim stutzle being nowhere close EV

First, by D+3 Stutzle was ahead of Hughes in actual production.

And you accuse me of giving Stutzle credit for something he didn't do...

I'll take actual points over p/60 anyday always.

Jack Hughes last year was continuing taking his game to the next level, like he did in his D+4. He got injured and afterwards was just a ppg guy before shutting it down for surgery.

In his D+4 Stutzle hurt his wrist, played through but wasn't able to shoot and as a result stagnated in his production and development. I contend he has too prove out that he can be a 90 to 100+ point guy like Hughes has shown, but he development path has shown that it is not an unreasonable contention.

Jack Hughes is also a smurf. He played Center in a very physical league where he is going to give up 25+ lbs to those he is playing against. In evaluating hid likely durability, that has to be held against him.

They are both fantastic players who entered the league at 18 and had similar impact in their first 3 years.

Jack had proven more over more time but Stützle has a body frame and size that is more conducive to a long career.

They are closer then Tkachuk and Brat in value in my opinion. That will change next year if say, Stützle doesn't take the next step I think he will or if Hughes gets caved in and missed significant time.

 

[Golden_Jet]

First, by D+3 Stutzle was ahead of Hughes in actual production.

And you accuse me of giving Stutzle credit for something he didn't do...

I'll take actual points over p/60 anyday always.

Exactly, most would.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

First, by D+3 Stutzle was ahead of Hughes in actual production.

And you accuse me of giving Stutzle credit for something he didn't do...

I'll take actual points over p/60 anyday always.

Jack Hughes last year was continuing taking his game to the next level, like he did in his D+4. He got injured and afterwards was just a ppg guy before shutting it down for surgery.

In his D+4 Stutzle hurt his wrist, played through but wasn't able to shoot and as a result stagnated in his production and development. I contend he has too prove out that he can be a 90 to 100+ point guy like Hughes has shown, but he development path has shown that it is not an unreasonable contention.

Jack Hughes is also a smurf. He played Center in a very physical league where he is going to give up 25+ lbs to those he is playing against. In evaluating he likely durability, that has to be held against him.

They are both fantastic players who entered the league at 18 and had similar impact in their first 3 years.

Jack had proven more over more time but Stützle has a body frame and size that is more conducive to a long career.

They are closer then Tkachuk and Brat in value in my opinion. That will change next year if say, Stützle doesn't take the next step I think he will or if Hughes gets caved in and missed significant time.

“Just a PPG guy” lol

He put up 1.19ppg, higher than Stutzle’s big breakout year, on a bum shoulder. Now you all want to whine about how hurt Stutzle was putting up a sub-ppg season. Comical.

 

[dgibb10]

First, by D+3 Stutzle was ahead of Hughes in actual production.

And you accuse me of giving Stutzle credit for something he didn't do...

I'll take actual points over p/60 anyday always.

Jack Hughes last year was continuing taking his game to the next level, like he did in his D+4. He got injured and afterwards was just a ppg guy before shutting it down for surgery.

In his D+4 Stutzle hurt his wrist, played through but wasn't able to shoot and as a result stagnated in his production and development. I contend he has too prove out that he can be a 90 to 100+ point guy like Hughes has shown, but he development path has shown that it is not an unreasonable contention.

Jack Hughes is also a smurf. He played Center in a very physical league where he is going to give up 25+ lbs to those he is playing against. In evaluating he likely durability, that has to be held against him.

They are both fantastic players who entered the league at 18 and had similar impact in their first 3 years.

Jack had proven more over more time but Stützle has a body frame and size that is more conducive to a long career.

They are closer then Tkachuk and Brat in value in my opinion. That will change next year if say, Stützle doesn't take the next step I think he will or if Hughes gets caved in and missed significant time.

Stutzle got 4 minutes a night on the PP in his D+3.
Jack got 3 minutes a night on the PP in his D+3.

Jack produced at a much higher rate on the PP

Jack produced at a much higher rate EV strength

You are giving Stutzle credit for the fact that he got an extra minute per game on the power play and an extra minute per game even strength lmao.

More ice time does not make a player better.

 

[Wierzbowski426]

First, by D+3 Stutzle was ahead of Hughes in actual production.

And you accuse me of giving Stutzle credit for something he didn't do...

I'll take actual points over p/60 anyday always.

Jack Hughes last year was continuing taking his game to the next level, like he did in his D+4. He got injured and afterwards was just a ppg guy before shutting it down for surgery.

In his D+4 Stutzle hurt his wrist, played through but wasn't able to shoot and as a result stagnated in his production and development. I contend he has too prove out that he can be a 90 to 100+ point guy like Hughes has shown, but he development path has shown that it is not an unreasonable contention.

Jack Hughes is also a smurf. He played Center in a very physical league where he is going to give up 25+ lbs to those he is playing against. In evaluating he likely durability, that has to be held against him.

They are both fantastic players who entered the league at 18 and had similar impact in their first 3 years.

Jack had proven more over more time but Stützle has a body frame and size that is more conducive to a long career.

They are closer then Tkachuk and Brat in value in my opinion. That will change next year if say, Stützle doesn't take the next step I think he will or if Hughes gets caved in and missed significant time.

Wikipedia has them at a 1 inch height difference and 15 pound difference weight wise. Size difference is being blown out of proportion imo.

 

[dgibb10]

lol you replied, but zero comments on what you replied to, something totally different.
Always with ignore, when you’re wrong, and some new goalposts to move.

No comment on the career high assist when couldn’t shoot.
And zero comments on this.

How can you have 2-3 strong years behind you at 20/21, but I assume you knew this, and then you compare it to the older Bratt lol.

I’m not seeing anything from Bratt until D+5, where he was approaching ppg, and broke it in D+7 by a point.

If you want to reply address what’s in the reply. Not with ya buts.

His career high assists was sparked by an interesting uptick in secondary assists.

His primary assist numbers dropped significantly this past year.

Again, your claim has now went to stutzle being younger, which I have on multiple occassions acknowledged, along with positional value, as why I have him ahead of Bratt.

Bratt was above 2 points/60 at even strength when he was 20 btw. These are their EV scoring rates from ages 20-21. Now, of course Bratt was not getting 4 minutes a night on the PP, he was getting about 2 minutes a night on PP2.

Bratt was producing from a young age, then the opportunity came. You seem to struggle to differentiate between opportunity and actual value.

You give players credit for being given opportunities, rather than what they actually do with the opportunities they have

 

[Xirik]

Wikipedia has them at a 1 inch height difference and 15 pound difference weight wise. Size difference is being blown out of proportion imo.

Don't you know it goes 5'9 - 5'10 - 5'11------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6'0


Huge gap in between them

 

[Golden_Jet]

Stutzle got 4 minutes a night on the PP in his D+3.
Jack got 3 minutes a night on the PP in his D+3.

Jack produced at a much higher rate on the PP
View attachment 901014
Jack produced at a much higher rate EV strength
View attachment 901013

You are giving Stutzle credit for the fact that he got an extra minute per game on the power play and an extra minute per game even strength lmao.

More ice time does not make a player better.

Obviously D+3 season favours Tim by a lot, being able to play,
90 points to 57.
slightly higher ppg for Tim
Jack a -16 in 49 games
Tim a -3 in 78 games.

Do you have anything to add beside pace and per/60 numbers lol

 

[Golden_Jet]

His career high assists was sparked by an interesting uptick in secondary assists.

His primary assist numbers dropped significantly this past year.

Again, your claim has now went to stutzle being younger, which I have on multiple occassions acknowledged, along with positional value, as why I have him ahead of Bratt.

Bratt was above 2 points/60 at even strength when he was 20 btw. These are their EV scoring rates from ages 20-21. Now, of course Bratt was not getting 4 minutes a night on the PP, he was getting about 2 minutes a night on PP2.

Bratt was producing from a young age, then the opportunity came. You seem to struggle to differentiate between opportunity and actual value.

You give players credit for being given opportunities, rather than what they actually do with the opportunities they have
View attachment 901017

Keep dodging this, I see

How can you have 2-3 strong years behind you at 20/21, but I assume you knew this, and then you compare it to the older Bratt lol.

 

[dgibb10]

Keep dodging this, I see

How can you have 2-3 strong years behind you at 20/21, but I assume you knew this, and then you compare it to the older Bratt lol.

A) I literally used Bratt's numbers from that same age as a comparison
B) I have consistently acknowledged that Stutzle's age makes him more valuable than bratt. He has not been better (again, positional value is not considered in this), but likely will be.
C) I compare their recent results because we are talking about the players TODAY.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Wikipedia has them at a 1 inch height difference and 15 pound difference weight wise. Size difference is being blown out of proportion imo.

Lmao referencing wiki hockey stats.
I checked 3 hockey sites all one inch difference and 22 lbs heavier and a faster skater.