HisNoodliness
Good things come to those who wait
Downgrade the Montreal players by about one degree in every single one of these. Choose three comps that you're really bullish on to remain unchanged. That's about right.
Bratt & J. Hughes or B.Tkachuk & Stutzle?
- Thread starter SeanMoneyHands
- Start date
HisNoodliness
Good things come to those who wait
Personally I voted Bratt and Hughes because I think Hughes has separation from the others and hockey is a strong-link game.
All I hear was excuses. They were more productive and had a bigger impact physically than the NJ duo.
There’s nothing wrong admitting they’re better. That doesn’t make Hughes or Bratt less desirable players.
Once again.
Bratt and Hughes were more productive on the PP (hughes especially was nearly TWICE as productive as tkachuk)
Bratt and Hughes were more productive even strength
Bratt and Hughes gave up less defensively
Ottawa got a ton more PPs than NJD (they also took a lot more penalties).
Now, I do give credit to stutzle for how many penalties he draws. And against most guys, that argument would hold weight. Unfortunately, hughes and bratt have a better penalty differential than tkachuk and stutzle.
Tkachuk and Stutzle draw more, but they also take about 8 times as many penalties as Jack and Bratt, putting large amounts of strain on ottawas 29th ranked PP last year
The confusion stems from the fact that it is a PROJECTION for MTL approximately 5 years from now, vs the current iterations of the other players.
I will say they are optimistic projections for Slaf and Demidov to become equivalent to Tkachuk and Marner.
By D+3 Stutzle was already quite a bit behind Jack in P/60.
And then you can't simply give stutzle credit for something he didn't do.
Jack played with a shoulder injury all year, and guess what he STILL did.
3.41 points/60. 0.15 higher than Stutzles career high.
Healthy jack is significantly ahead of healthy stutzle. Injured Jack is significantly ahead of injured stutzle
Jack became a 3.81 points/60 player in D+4
Stutzle dropped to 2.65
Stutzle was closer to in points/60 to Brett Leason (351st in the league), than he was to D+4 Jack
That and tim stutzle being nowhere close EV
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Explain to me how that works then. If Bratt and Hughes were so much more productive on the PP and more productive at even strength, how is it that they got outproduced overall? Math isn’t mathing.
Stutzle and Tkachuk also were way more involved physically and their puck win battles/hits are on another universe compared to Hughes and Bratt.
READ IT
Jack and Bratt better EV
Jack and Bratt better on PP
PP is easier to score on than at EV (common sense)
Tkachuk and Stutzle get a significantly amount of their time on the PP
Also FYI Jack (3.81) and bratt (3.08) still had better overall production than Stutzle and Tkachuk (both 3.26 p/60).
They had approximately the same EV ice time.
Stutzle and Tkachuk got an extra 160 minutes of PP time (again, Jack and Bratt had better penalty differentials).
It is why it is often important to seperate everything into 3 categories (PP, PK EV).
You are giving extra credit to Tkachuk and Stutzle because they play on a team that generates a lot of penalties both way, while NJD plays much more disciplined hockey.
Of course, you will not give any blame to Tkachuk or Stutzle for the goals that ottawa surrendered with them in the box.
Now, NJD may even have a lower penalty results both ways considering they shipped out high penalty (both ways) guys like McLeod, Miller, Wood, Bahl, and Smith over the last 2 years, for guys who have been lower penalty events, especially defensively going from Bahl/Smith/Marino/Miller to Pesce/Dillon/Hamilton
Tkachuk and Stutzle would be wise to play a more disciplined brand of hockey next year.
The PP/PK did not help ottawa this past year.
an 18% PP, and a PK that gives up goals at 25% means 1 penalty drawn is not as beneficial as the harm one penalty taken causes.
Now, if you're an elite special teams unit like Carolina, NYR, or Edmonton, you should be trying to create as much ruckus as possible. Since NHL refs often approximately even up penalties, the more penalties you take, the more you will likely draw.
vtdevils2k
"Lets Go Baby!"
Jack Hughes is greater than all 3....move on.
Like others said, add Nico and it's a good poll.
Like others said, add Nico and it's a good poll.
You’re the guy that said Bratt was comparable to Connor Brown
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My god, you’re going in length in trying to justify why the duo so are so invested in because of your homer bias was outproduced by two players you feel should be inferior but aren’t.
Maybe they should be more careful, but that usually comes from being more physically engaged and not being a parameter player. You’re ought to take more penalties.
At the end of the day, it’s pretty simple. Hughes is the better player of the 4 (when healthy) but Bratt doesn’t sniff Stutzle or Tkachuk when it comes to value that each player bring on the ice. That’s just the reality of it.
And I will say it again, I would be way more comfortable building a winning team with Stutzle and Tkachuk rather than Hughes and Bratt. It’s not really a debate for me.
Trying to explain basic statistics and common sense?
Your problem (and the problem with a lot of people's understanding of statistics) is the complete lack of valuation of taking penalties/penalty killing on anyone but the goalie.
Since you will NEVER take a look at PK metrics for players, how many penalties players take, and PK isn't contributing to box score numbers. You will have completely ignored a massive part of hockey. Killing penalties and staying out of the box.
You do the same with MTL. A big part of why MTL and Ottawa sucked was because they ranked bottom 10 in terms of PK goals against. In fact, all of the bottom 7 teams in the league last year ranked bottom 10 in PK goals against.
Not taking penalties, and having effective PK guys is important. Just as much as drawing penalties and having an effective PP. But only 1 of those aspects you will ever recognize
I don't blame them, Hab's fans had a whole decade or more of having smaller players up and down the lineup. Gomez, Gionta, etc, Who always got knocked off the puck easy. They want some Hulk smash in their lives even if if the course correction went way to far in the opposite direction.
Ottawa always has liked their big boys for a long time.
Penalty killing is perpertually underrated.
Doesn't go as a -
Won't effect box score stats for any players (just your goalies).
If team A gives up 100 PP goals and scores 100 PP goals, they are net 0.
If team B gives up 40 PP goals and scores 50 PP goals, they are net +10.
But all these fans would ever see or think about is how team A's stars have jacked up point totals.
Jack and Bratt have led elite level PP production when on the ice, much better than Stutzle and Tkachuk
Interestingly enough, Tkachuk has what I'd refer to as "fake" expected goals on the PP. He has consistently, for his entire career of about 6 years, vastly underperformed his PP expected goals by massive margins (because he's just shoving pucks into goalies pads). Overall he has 42 career PP goals on 79 career expected PP goals.
6 straight years of this means it's a pattern, not a coincidence
Oh don't worry, I understand basic facts well enough. Your sole argument on why Hughes and Bratt were better was that they have a better PIM diff. (which isn't even true if you take into account fight majors/misconducts & Coincidental minors which is a net neutral over a game). Let's dive into some of those stats you completely ignored because it didn't fit your narrative:
The Bratt & Hughes duo had a higher giveaway total over the course of the season despite having less overall TOI than the Tkachuk/Stutzle duo.
The Bratt & Hughes duo had a total of 34 hits through the season compared to the Stutzle/ Tkachuk duo who had almost 900% more hits total. They were not engaged physically in the game - at all.
The Bratt & Hughes duo had much easier deployment overall than the Stutzle/Tkachuk duo.
The Stutzle/Tkachuk duo had almost double the puck battle wins combined (in terms of %) than the Bratt/Hughes duo through the year.
The Stutzle/Tkachuk duo had 1 point (combined) total more than the Bratt/Hughes duo. They played the same exact same number of games combined.
It's not the first time you're being called out for pick-pocketing one very little statistic to try and prove a point while ignoring the rest. You've also been called out for trying to twist different sets of statistics to fit your narrative (hint hint deployments)
You can't point at penalty and say "That's the reason why the Ottawa combo sucks" without even bothering to look further into the stats. The PIM total includes fights and misconducts, which counts into the total PIM diff. Take out the 5 min fight majors, misconducts and Coincidental minors and all of a sudden the combined PIM differential turns into favorable stats for the Stutzle/Tkachuk duo compared to the Bratt/Hughes.
Bold of you to say that when Hughes can't even stay healthy for more than 20 games at a time.
None of coincidental minors or fighting majors affect penalty differential. They cancel out. This is again, you showing your lack of knowledge regarding statistics.
Tkachuk and Stutzle actually got more favourable deployment, try again.
Again, nowhere did I say the ottawa combo sucks. I in fact specifically said they both have very good penalty differentials. Just not as good as Hughes/Bratt over the last 2 years.
Once again, getting 160 more PP minutes was the only edge for Ottawa. They had worse scoring rates in all facets of the game.
Sure, they had more giveaways, less hits, and won less puck battles. All very minor pieces to the final puzzle.
The rest of the puzzle is why Hughes and Bratt finished with significantly better goal shares, and expected goal shares.
Try Hischier. He's still better than Stutzle, but at least now it's a debate if you want the Physicality or Tkachuk or the Defense of Nico (Hint, defense is what actually helps teams win hockey games)
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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That deployment is from 22-23
In 22-23 Jack and Bratt drew 31 penalties and took 6. (or +25)
Tkachuk and Stutzle drew 68 and took 55 (or +13)
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
You're going to claim it has to do from injuries, when it didn't.
Ottawa is a high volume penalty team both ways. They got an extra 70 PPs that year.
(once again, Jack and Bratt had a better penalty differential).
You are giving Tkachuk and Stutzle credit for an extra 70 power plays, while ignoring all the extra penalties they took.
Simple question, would you rather have a special teams unit that
Scores 100 PPG and gives up 100 PPG
or one that
Scores 50 PPG and gives up 40 PPG
One of these helps you win games. The other is padding stats.
Jack and Bratt have been SIGNIFICANTLY better PP weapons.
More opportunity does not equal better
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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Nice, someone gets it, and points out the endless cherry picking, and ignore the rest.
34 combined hits for NJ
Do stutzle and Tkachuk see the playoffs before or after they hit 1000 combined games?Nice, someone gets it, and points out the endless cherry picking, and ignore the rest.
34 combined hits for NJ
Once again, you speak about wanting "winning"
And yet, things that do not contribute to winning (simply existing on a PP that gets more opportunity), you seem to be in love with.
I want a player that will make my PP as efficient as possible. That's Jack and Bratt.
I want players that will help me get more PPs than my opponent. That's Jack and Bratt
I want players that will produce at a higher rate EV. That's Jack and Bratt
I want players who are better at preventing chances against. That's Jack and Bratt.
If you want someone to get bitchy and fight someone as his team gets smoked, Tkachuk's your guy
- Apr 27, 2005
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Stutzle is better than Bratt, and I'm the biggest Bratt homer around.
