Bratt & J. Hughes or B.Tkachuk & Stutzle?

[bert]

100% agree about raw differentials, but hard to access/find numbers that can accurately value possession.

teams that outpossess and outshoot their opponents consistently win, whether they hit or not.

I view physicality as a piece that contributes to the final puzzle of end results.

Others view end results, and then ADD value for physicality on top of that, which makes no sense to me.

If Brady Tkachuk's physicality is preventing opponents from doing things on the ice that they otherwise would, that is ALREADY reflected in his end results for possession/chance generation.

In other words, just how much worse is Brady Tkachuk than Jesper Bratt at the other aspects of hockey if, despite the massive physicality difference, they still end up with nearly identical results

Spoke by someone that has clearly never had to take or give a hit in their life. Why dont you go ask an NHL d man that has him breathing down their neck on the forcheck if his physicality makes a difference. You probably dont think injuries effect player performance either.

 

[Machinehead]

The problem with physicality is that it's not clearly defined, so the goalposts always move.

"They actually don't hit that much."
"Oh but that's because they have the puck, they definitely hit when they don't have it."

"This player doesn't hit at all."
"Ah yes, but he plays with an edge."

None of it means anything and there's different ways to measure it. It's also not inherently good like, say, scoring is. If you're going out of position to throw hits, you're hurting your team.

Tkachuk scores a lot from in tight and drives offensive possession. Those attributes definitely have a physical element to them, and are defeinitely good. That doesn't mean he automatically will succeed in the playoffs. He probably will, because he's a good player, but there's no reason to believe (as of right now) more so than better players.

"Physicality," or more accurately, the attributes that fall under that umbrella, are definitely worthwhile, but they kind of mean what people want them to mean when it's convenient.

 

[dgibb10]

Spoke by someone that has clearly never had to take or give a hit in their life. Why dont you go ask an NHL d man that has him breathing down their neck on the forcheck if his physicality makes a difference. You probably dont think injuries effect player performance either.

Again, as I have said many times, they do have an impact.

BUT THAT IMPACT IS ALREADY CONSIDERED BY HIS END RESULTS.

Any impact that tkachuk's physicality has in terms of creating scoring chances for his team when he's on the ice, and preventing chances against, is already accounted for when you look at his results in terms of those areas.

Unless you are trying to make the claim that big spooky tkachuk scares opponents into making mistakes while he's on the bench. Which is utter bullshit.

Any mistake a dman makes with tkachuk on the ice because they are worried about him is already accounted for, since it will prevent a scoring chance against, or create a scoring chance for. Both of which will help his on ice results.

 

[dgibb10]

The problem with physicality is that it's not clearly defined, so the goalposts always move.

"They actually don't hit that much."
"Oh but that's because they have the puck, they definitely hit when they don't have it."

"This player doesn't hit at all."
"Ah yes, but he plays with an edge."

None of it means anything and there's different ways to measure it. It's also not inherently good like, say, scoring is. If you're going out of position to throw hits, you're hurting your team.

Tkachuk scores a lot from in tight and drives offensive possession. Those attributes definitely have a physical element to them, and are defeinitely good. That doesn't mean he automatically will succeed in the playoffs. He probably will, because he's a good player, but there's no reason to believe (as of right now) more so than better players.

"Physicality," or more accurately, the attributes that fall under that umbrella, are definitely worthwhile, but they kind of mean what people want them to mean when it's convenient.

Yup.

Physicality is just that. A tool that can be used to produce results.

Just like bratt uses his elite skating to produce results.

Bratt going end to end using his speed to blow by a dman for a high level scoring chance is the same value as Tkachuk going and bullying someone to the net for a chance in the same spot (not actually because Bratt is a significantly better shooter but anyways).

Some players matchup differently against different styles. Bratt (and NJD) in fact tends to excel against the slow, lumbering, physical teams.

They struggle more against teams like Carolina, Colorado, and Edmonton etc with the ability to match and defend that speed

 

[Xirik]

I take the sens duo and it didn’t take long to get to that conclusion either

If it so easy then it should be "easy" for you to explain how you got to that conclusion.

 

[NyQuil]

Again, as I have said many times, they do have an impact.

BUT THAT IMPACT IS ALREADY CONSIDERED BY HIS END RESULTS.

Any impact that tkachuk's physicality has in terms of creating scoring chances for his team when he's on the ice, and preventing chances against, is already accounted for when you look at his results in terms of those areas.

Unless you are trying to make the claim that big spooky tkachuk scares opponents into making mistakes while he's on the bench. Which is utter bullshit.

Any mistake a dman makes with tkachuk on the ice because they are worried about him is already accounted for, since it will prevent a scoring chance against, or create a scoring chance for. Both of which will help his on ice results.

The assumption here is that there is an immediate effect taking place on the same shift, and that there is no cumulative impact that physical play can have on subsequent shifts or later periods or games in a series.

 

[dgibb10]

The assumption here is that there is an immediate effect taking place on the same shift, and that there is no cumulative impact that physical play can have on subsequent shifts or later periods or games in a series.

Any impact occuring later in the game with Tkachuk on the ice would again still be accounted for in the same way.

Hits can wear down teams, sure. Just like trying to keep up with an elite skater, and an elite skating team like the devils and Bratt, can leave a dcore exhausted and unable to keep up late in the game.

If there was any evidence to show that these had any meaningful impact on winning, I would give it more weight.


And even if your claim holds up, all it really does is say Stutzle, Sanderson, Zub, Giroux, Pinto, etc, and all the other senators, are actually worse than the numbers say.

And imagine how much better Jack and Bratt's results will now be with the physicality of Dillon, a healthy Meier, and Cotter to back them up. Wow, this is excellent news for the NJD duo.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Having a discussion with the 2 NJ posters that are fully of hyperbole, and ya buts is hilarious.

Lmao I haven’t read the whole thread just went out there to say my peace. I see now that they are triggered when someone don’t pick their homer duo.

NJD duo:
-Made the playoffs and won a round
-Better PP weapons
-Better 5v5 weapons
-Better overall production
-Better rate production
-Better penalty differential
-Better possession metrics
-Better expected on ice goal results
-better actual on ice goal results

Ottawa duo:
#HITZ

NJD duo = 26 & 23 years old
Ottawa duo = 22 & 24 years old.

NJ team in general is more mature and have much bette depth everywhere. Switch players from one team to another and you’ll see way different result.

If it so easy then it should be "easy" for you to explain how you got to that conclusion.

Sure. I think both Stutzle and Tkachuk are a better duo if I wanted to build off a winning team. I believe their style of play is perfect for a long playoff runs and when given the chance, they will have better team results than the smallish Hughes and Bratt. On top of that, Hughes seems to be injured more often than not.

One last thing, I think together both Stutzle and Tkachuk have more growth left in their game than Hughes and Bratt.

 

[dgibb10]

Lmao I haven’t read the whole thread just went out there to say my peace. I see now that they are triggered when someone don’t pick their homer duo.

NJD duo = 26 & 23 years old
Ottawa duo = 22 & 24 years old.

NJ team in general is more mature and have much bette depth everywhere. Switch players from one team to another and you’ll see way different result.

Sure. I think both Stutzle and Tkachuk are a better duo if I wanted to build off a winning team. I believe their style of play is perfect for a long playoff runs and when given the chance, they will have better team results than the smallish Hughes and Bratt. On top of that, Hughes seems to be injured more often than not.

One last thing, I think together both Stutzle and Tkachuk have more growth left in their game than Hughes and Bratt.

Jack is 8 months older than Stutzle, bratt is 13 months older than Tkachuk.

If I ask ottawa fans if Luke Hughes, Nemec, Bahl , and Marino (NJDs top 4 minutes dmen last year) were better than Sanderson, Zub, Chychrun, and Chabot, I know exactly what answer I will get

NJDs dcore backing up the forwards being discussed was among the youngest in hockey lmao. In fact, Luke and Nemec played more minutes than any other player under the age of 21 last year.

Forward depth isn't relevant since none of the listed players are going out there with depth guys.

Your argument is "Jack isn't that good because he gets to play with Bratt and Bratt isn't that good because he gets to play with Jack".

 

[NyQuil]

If I ask ottawa fans if Luke Hughes, Nemec, Bahl , and Marino (NJDs top 4 minutes dmen last year) were better than Sanderson, Zub, Chychrun, and Chabot, I know exactly what answer I will get

Do you think Sanderson, Zub, Chychrun and Chabot are better than Hughes, Nemec, Bahl and Marino?

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Maybe if its

Tkachuk > Bratt

(The sign is smaller font)

Tkachuk > Bratt
Hughes > Stützle

Do you think Sanderson, Zub, Chychrun and Chabot are better than Hughes, Nemec, Bahl and Marino?

On paper yes, Chychrun was a bad fit though. And even then, Sens got absolutely destroyed by awful goaltending last year.

 

[Silky Johnson]

I think the Stützle<<Hughes takes may look bad in a couple years.

Up until last year they had very similar trajectories. Timmy played through a wrist injury that made him basically unable to shoot well. Hence his goal total dropping in half. I think there is a good chance he puts up 90-100 points this year with a good wrist.

Jack Hughes is wildly talented. But he is small. There haven't been many 175lbs star centers in NHL history. Injuries have already been a concern for him. I think it's likely that they stunt his career and ultimately take there toll on his effectiveness.

I'd say the most likely scenario is Hughes has a better peak and Stützle has the better career.

Brady of the four is the biggest wildcard. Guys his size peak later and he brings alot of size and physicality to the game. He is a throwback power forward who has a legit shot of having the best career of the bunch.

Brat is a good but undersized winger.

Advantage Stützle-Tkachuk

 

[dgibb10]

Do you think Sanderson, Zub, Chychrun and Chabot are better than Hughes, Nemec, Bahl and Marino?

100% last year.

Sanderson is an absolute stud.
Zub had an excellent year. How much of that was due to Sanderson's brilliance, who knows, but any amount I'm overrating him is an amount I'm underrating Sanderson.

Chychrun I think is a solid top 4 option.
Chabot is still a quality top 3 guy imo.

Marino very much struggled last year, especially compared to 22-23
Bahl sucks ass
Hughes and Nemec were good for their age, but not good enough.

and Smith and Siegs were atrocious last year.

Sanderson

GAP

Zub
Chabot
Hughes
Nemec

GAP

Marino
Chychrun

GAP

Bahl

Looking at 22-23 NJD vs 23-24 Ottawa

Hamilton

GAP

Sanderson
Marino

GAP

Zub
Severson
Chabot

GAP

Siegenthaler
Chychrun
Graves

 

[Silky Johnson]

Hughes the Norris Winner >> Timmy the Bitch
Brat = Tkachuck but not the better of the two


I have no bias whatsoever btw

Clearly.

 

[dgibb10]

I think the Stützle<<Hughes takes may look bad in a couple years.

Up until last year they had very similar trajectories. Timmy played through a wrist injury that made him basically unable to shoot well. Hence his goal total dropping in half. I think there is a good chance he puts up 90-100 points this year with a good wrist.

Jack Hughes is wildly talented. But he is small. There haven't been many 175lbs star centers in NHL history. Injuries have already been a concern for him. I think it's likely that they stunt his career and ultimately take there toll on his effectiveness.

I'd say the most likely scenario is Hughes has a better peak and Stützle has the better career.

Brady of the four is the biggest wildcard. Guys his size peak later and he brings alot of size and physicality to the game. He is a throwback power forward who has a legit shot of having the best career of the bunch.

Brat is a good but undersized winger.

Advantage Stützle-Tkachuk

Stutzle is not close to Jack. He's been about as close to Jack as Jack has been to Nathan Mackinnon over the last 3 years

0.82 points/60 and 0.5 goals/60

or in another way, Jack scores 50% more goals and 30% more points.

for context, Connor Mcdavid scores 30% more points than jack hughes, and auston matthews scores about 43% more goals than Hughes

 

[Xirik]

Lmao I haven’t read the whole thread just went out there to say my peace. I see now that they are triggered when someone don’t pick their homer duo.

 

[Xspyrit]

I find it funny that people make fun of Tkachuk’s hypothetical playoff performances while others cite hypothetical point production from a hypothetically healthy Jack Hughes.

Even strength points in Sens favour, PP points in NJ’s favour.
Replace with Nico, Sens ahead.
Even now it’s 60/40 split with Jack

When I see this poster, I can't forget about this post in the Montreal potential thread :

Toronto: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly: Matthews>Slaf, Marner=Demidov, Nylander>Suzuki, Reilly=Caufield
Boston: Pasta, McAvoy, Marchand, Swayman: Pasta>Slaf, McAvoy>Demidov, Marchand<Suzuki, Swayman>Caufield
Buffalo: Dahlin, Tage, Tuch, Cozens: Dahlin>Slaf, Tage<Demidov, Tuch<Suzuki, Cozens>Caufield
Florida: do I even have to?
Detroit: Seider=Slaf, Demidov>Raymond, Larkin=Suzuki, Debrincat>Caufield
Ottawa: Tkachuk=Slaf, Demidov>Sanderson, Stutzle=Suzuki, Caufield>Batherson
MTL: obviously will be better than they are currently
Tampa: Point>Slaf, Kucherov>Demidov, Hedman=Suzuki, Guentzel>Caufield

So I am not putting a lot of credibility on what he says to be honest

 

[dgibb10]

When I see this poster, I can't forget about this post in the Montreal potential thread :

Toronto: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly: Matthews>Slaf, Marner=Demidov, Nylander>Suzuki, Reilly=Caufield
Boston: Pasta, McAvoy, Marchand, Swayman: Pasta>Slaf, McAvoy>Demidov, Marchand<Suzuki, Swayman>Caufield
Buffalo: Dahlin, Tage, Tuch, Cozens: Dahlin>Slaf, Tage<Demidov, Tuch<Suzuki, Cozens>Caufield
Florida: do I even have to?
Detroit: Seider=Slaf, Demidov>Raymond, Larkin=Suzuki, Debrincat>Caufield
Ottawa: Tkachuk=Slaf, Demidov>Sanderson, Stutzle=Suzuki, Caufield>Batherson
MTL: obviously will be better than they are currently
Tampa: Point>Slaf, Kucherov>Demidov, Hedman=Suzuki, Guentzel>Caufield

So I am not putting a lot of credibility on what he says to be honest

Which of these points do you disagree with?

 

[Silky Johnson]

Stutzle is not close to Jack. He's been about as close to Jack as Jack has been to Nathan Mackinnon over the last 3 years

0.82 points/60 and 0.5 goals/60
View attachment 900826

I said until last year they had similar trajectories. Last year Tim played through a bad wrist injury which limited his ability to shoot, which explains his drop in points. Tim needs to put up near 100 this year to keep pace but considering his previous trajectory it doesn't seem like a stretch.

Both players have had very good starts to their careers playing in their first year of eligibility.

Tim Stützle

D+1 0.55 ppg
D+2 0.73 ppg
D+3 1.18 ppg

Jack Hughes

D+1 0.34 ppg
D+2 0.55 ppg
D+3 1.14 ppg

 

[Baksfamous112]

Jack is 8 months older than Stutzle, bratt is 13 months older than Tkachuk.

If I ask ottawa fans if Luke Hughes, Nemec, Bahl , and Marino (NJDs top 4 minutes dmen last year) were better than Sanderson, Zub, Chychrun, and Chabot, I know exactly what answer I will get

NJDs dcore backing up the forwards being discussed was among the youngest in hockey lmao. In fact, Luke and Nemec played more minutes than any other player under the age of 21 last year.

Forward depth isn't relevant since none of the listed players are going out there with depth guys.

Your argument is "Jack isn't that good because he gets to play with Bratt and Bratt isn't that good because he gets to play with Jack".

Yet the year that NJ made the playoff the Stutzle-Tkachuk duo outscored the Hughes-Bratt duo by 1 points with the exact same amount of games played. They were simply the better players all-around.

One last thing - That 8 & 13 months age gap is pretty substantial when you talk about 22-25 years old players.

View attachment 900832

Yet you’re probably the biggest homer I know on these boards.

I find it funny that people make fun of Tkachuk’s hypothetical playoff performances while others cite hypothetical point production from a hypothetically healthy Jack Hughes.

it only apply if it further his own narrative

 

[dgibb10]

Yet the year that NJ made the playoff the Stutzle-Tkachuk duo outscored the Hughes-Bratt duo by 1 points with the exact same amount of games played. They were simply the better players all-around.

One last thing - That 8 & 13 months age gap is pretty substantial when you talk about 22-25 years old players.


Yet you’re probably the biggest homer I know on these boards.


it only apply if it further his own narrative

The Ottawa duo got a combined 160 more minutes on the power play lmao, because ottawa got 80 more power plays than NJD that year.

They scored at a lower rate at even strength, they scored at a (significantly) lower rate on the PP.

I'd recommend reading up on the Simpson's Paradox:

Simpson's Paradox

Also, better players all around?? Stutzle and Tkachuk are worse defensively than Jack and Bratt

 

[ZDH]

Devils combo but Bratt ain't helping.

 

[bert]

Again, as I have said many times, they do have an impact.

BUT THAT IMPACT IS ALREADY CONSIDERED BY HIS END RESULTS.

Any impact that tkachuk's physicality has in terms of creating scoring chances for his team when he's on the ice, and preventing chances against, is already accounted for when you look at his results in terms of those areas.

Unless you are trying to make the claim that big spooky tkachuk scares opponents into making mistakes while he's on the bench. Which is utter bullshit.

Any mistake a dman makes with tkachuk on the ice because they are worried about him is already accounted for, since it will prevent a scoring chance against, or create a scoring chance for. Both of which will help his on ice results.

Hockey isnt baseball as soon as you figure that out you might have a better grasp on discussing it.

 

[bert]

I said until last year they had similar trajectories. Last year Tim played through a bad wrist injury which limited his ability to shoot, which explains his drop in points. Tim needs to put up near 100 this year to keep pace but considering his previous trajectory it doesn't seem like a stretch.

Both players have had very good starts to their careers playing in their first year of eligibility.

Tim Stützle

D+1 0.55 ppg
D+2 0.73 ppg
D+3 1.18 ppg

Jack Hughes

D+1 0.34 ppg
D+2 0.55 ppg
D+3 1.14 ppg

No where to be found. Shocker. This guy things hockey is a math equation (which it clearly is not) but then when it doesnt work out in his favor he's a ghost.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Any impact occuring later in the game with Tkachuk on the ice would again still be accounted for in the same way.

Hits can wear down teams, sure. Just like trying to keep up with an elite skater, and an elite skating team like the devils and Bratt, can leave a dcore exhausted and unable to keep up late in the game.

If there was any evidence to show that these had any meaningful impact on winning, I would give it more weight.


And even if your claim holds up, all it really does is say Stutzle, Sanderson, Zub, Giroux, Pinto, etc, and all the other senators, are actually worse than the numbers say.

Tim is faster on NHL edge
Stutzle 95th percentile
Bratt 88th percentile

When I see this poster, I can't forget about this post in the Montreal potential thread :

Toronto: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly: Matthews>Slaf, Marner=Demidov, Nylander>Suzuki, Reilly=Caufield
Boston: Pasta, McAvoy, Marchand, Swayman: Pasta>Slaf, McAvoy>Demidov, Marchand<Suzuki, Swayman>Caufield
Buffalo: Dahlin, Tage, Tuch, Cozens: Dahlin>Slaf, Tage<Demidov, Tuch<Suzuki, Cozens>Caufield
Florida: do I even have to?
Detroit: Seider=Slaf, Demidov>Raymond, Larkin=Suzuki, Debrincat>Caufield
Ottawa: Tkachuk=Slaf, Demidov>Sanderson, Stutzle=Suzuki, Caufield>Batherson
MTL: obviously will be better than they are currently
Tampa: Point>Slaf, Kucherov>Demidov, Hedman=Suzuki, Guentzel>Caufield

So I am not putting a lot of credibility on what he says to be honest

WOW, that is Uber bad,
how did I miss that