Value of: Brady Tkachuk to the highest bidder (before July 1st)

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Thinking about a package the devils could reasonably offer while still making salaries work:

Simon Nemec
Lenni Hameenaho or Arseny Gritsyuk
Daniil Orlov
Ondrej Palat (3 x $6.0M)
Tomas Tatar (1 x $1.8M)
2026 1st
2025 2nd
2025 2nd

- Potential top pairing dman
- Choice of our best forward prospects, each with top 6 potential
- Promising Russian D prospect
- 3 solid draft picks

Palat and Tatar are dumps, but could earn some value in a future deadline trade with retention. A guy like Palat at 3-4M could probably fetch another 2nd, given his experience and history of elevating his game in the playoffs.

Would leave the devils with bare cupboards, but would also give them arguably the best top 6 in hockey:

Tkachuk - Hughes - Bratt
Noesen - Hischier - Meier

 

[Smitty426]

Thinking about a package the devils could reasonably offer while still making salaries work:

Simon Nemec
Lenni Hameenaho or Arseny Gritsyuk
Daniil Orlov
Ondrej Palat (3 x $6.0M)
Tomas Tatar (1 x $1.8M)
2026 1st
2025 2nd
2025 2nd

- Potential top pairing dman
- Choice of our best forward prospects, each with top 6 potential
- Promising Russian D prospect
- 3 solid draft picks

Palat and Tatar are dumps, but could earn some value in a future deadline trade with retention. A guy like Palat at 3-4M could probably fetch another 2nd, given his experience and history of elevating his game in the playoffs.

Would leave the devils with bare cupboards, but would also give them arguably the best top 6 in hockey:

Tkachuk - Hughes - Bratt
Noesen - Hischier - Meier

I think I'd give Mercer up before Nemec
I know it's crowded back there but once Dougie is gone I'd hate to go looking for D. And if they demand D I guess Casey along with the bits and pcs you've done here.

The forwards you mention replace Dawson and play lower in the lineup. Getting Palat to waive won't happen so you've got work to do. I like BT but it may be forcing things.

 

[DJB]

Do I want to trade Brady? Of course not, but none of us really expect him to stick it out with us after missing the playoffs for yet another season. The best time to move him would be before his NMC kicks in on July 1st and we get screwed with him picking his spot.

Fire away.

Can we not do this?

 

[The Management]

If you trade Tkachuck, I think you're going to immediately miss the elements he brings to the table. But there's no doubt he would return the Senators a fine haul, unless they were to bungle the deal. Maybe a top six forward and a top four / middle pairing defenseman? Replace some lost goalscoring and upgrade on D? Tough trade to make.

 

[miscs75]

Delete

 

[Gliff]

McTavish + 2025 1st (top 3 protected) + Prospect

I know the wish would be for an unprotected 1st but I doubt any GM would trade an unprotected 1st that is going to be a top 5 pick as of mid December.

 

[RedHawkDown]

JT Compher (salary) + Danielson + Lombardi + 2026 1st (unprotected). Dunno if that's close.

Ottawa would never trade Tkachuk to Detroit though.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think I'd give Mercer up before Nemec
I know it's crowded back there but once Dougie is gone I'd hate to go looking for D.

Even with Dougie gone, it will still be crowded back there. Mercer is a versatile piece, and probably doesn't fetch as much in a trade

And if they demand D I guess Casey along with the bits and pcs you've done here.

Why? Casey is very clearly better than Nemec.

 

[Smitty426]

Even with Dougie gone, it will still be crowded back there. Mercer is a versatile piece, and probably doesn't fetch as much in a trade

Why? Casey is very clearly better than Nemec.

Disagree on Nemec/Casey
Nemec got thrown in the deep end last year and didn't look outta place. Was also leaned on heavily. Casey was OK this yr but couldn't hold. Small sample but using what we have as games played, Casey is not the better player right now

 

[cbjthrowaway]

i'm not sure brady has quite the value that some of the other posts here seem to suggest, given that he's basically going to be a three-year rental for most teams. i assume he's going to hit UFA at the end of his deal and go join his brother in florida.

from the CBJ perspective, i'd happily pony up something like:

• two of sillinger, chinakhov or voronkov
• one late first rounder in 2025 (minnesota or the one we get for provorov)
• our first rounder in 2026 with top-3 protection

alternatively, if our pick ends up in the 10-15 range, something like:

• one of sillinger, chinakhov or voronkov
• our 2025 first rounder
• our 2026 first rounder with protection

again, would love him on columbus, but the long-term uncertainty means i wouldn't give up someone like KJ, marchenko, mateychuk or lindstrom, and fantilli would be off the table regardless.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Disagree on Nemec/Casey
Nemec got thrown in the deep end last year and didn't look outta place. Was also leaned on heavily. Casey was OK this yr but couldn't hold. Small sample but using what we have as games played, Casey is not the better player right now

Casey was excellent this year despite Nemec leaving out to dry to defend odd man rushes every game. And he's been waaay better in the AHL as well.

Nemec was great in the first 40 or so game of last year, but then things quickly started to fall apart for him, and that continued into this season.

He keeps trying to be an aggressive offensive dman, but he's just not talented enough to play that game at the NHL level. And because he's a relatively mediocre skater, he's not been able to recover from his over aggressive play. There are reports that this is still a problem even in the AHL.

Casey has displayed significantly better smarts, positioning, skating, puck skills, and shooting ability. The only thing Nemec has on him is size.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Trading Brady might actually make the Sens a better team. Between the return and the change in the core/leadership.

He'll be their Kessel.. Clearly talented but won't reach his potential there.

 

[dgibb10]

Casey was excellent this year despite Nemec leaving out to dry to defend odd man rushes every game. And he's been waaay better in the AHL as well.

Nemec was great in the first 40 or so game of last year, but then things quickly started to fall apart for him, and that continued into this season.

View attachment 942988

He keeps trying to be an aggressive offensive dman, but he's just not talented enough to play that game at the NHL level. And because he's a relatively mediocre skater, he's not been able to recover from his over aggressive play. There are reports that this is still a problem even in the AHL.

Casey has displayed significantly better smarts, positioning, skating, puck skills, and shooting ability. The only thing Nemec has on him is size.

Neither of them played well at all this year, let's not sugar coat it or lie to ourselves.

Casey played about as sheltered of usage as is realistically possible for a dman and still struggled against mostly opposing depth for about 10 minutes a night. Casey was nice on a PP2 without luke (and I think he will be a longer term PPQB in his career), and outside of that wasn't good.

The skill is very clearly there, but he has not shown to be NHL caliber at this point.

Nemec did not look good either. However, he has a track record of 60 games of quality NHL hockey under his belt as a teenager.

 

[Golden_Jet]

JT Compher (salary) + Danielson + Lombardi + 2026 1st (unprotected). Dunno if that's close.

Ottawa would never trade Tkachuk to Detroit though.

No, Ottawa wouldn’t taking cap dumps back, if he was even available.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Neither of them played well at all this year, let's not sugar coat it or lie to ourselves.

Casey played about as sheltered of usage as is realistically possible for a dman and still struggled against mostly opposing depth for about 10 minutes a night. Casey was nice on a PP2 without luke (and I think he will be a longer term PPQB in his career), and outside of that wasn't good.

The skill is very clearly there, but he has not shown to be NHL caliber at this point.

Nemec did not look good either. However, he has a track record of 60 games of quality NHL hockey under his belt as a teenager.

Hard to evaluate on a quantitative basis when he was being dragged down by Nemec (who he was stapled to), which was very clearly the case by the eye test. He was making excellent plays to break pucks out and was passing lights out.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Farabee, Frost, Barkey, Risto, 1st, 2nd from Flyers

 

[dgibb10]

Hard to evaluate on a quantitative basis when he was being dragged down by Nemec (who he was stapled to), which was very clearly the case by the eye test. He was making excellent plays to break pucks out and was passing lights out.

So you let your bias take over and choose to blame Nemec for everything?

Casey played the easiest minutes possible, with almost exclusively ozone starts.

I don't harp on deployment in the middle tier where it's mostly splitting hairs, but I cannot think of a dman in the league getting assignments as easy as Casey was. And before you talk about on off, basically every shift that Nemec got away from Casey was generally a tougher deployment in a more defensive situation that Keefe didn't think Casey could handle. (hence why, despite playing on a pairing, Nemecs usage% against elite competion was about DOUBLE what Casey's was

His breakout passes were nice, but he was not good defensively. Got bailed out by a ridiculous like 0.980 SV% or something behind him tho.

With Nemec I have 60 games of quality play at the NHL level, with 9 games of struggle this year, which if you want to cop out and be biased you can blame on his injury, casey, or anything else.

With Casey I have 9 games of struggle in the easiest role possible. Now, you can blame it on Nemec, or playing on the left side if you want. But the problem is there is no baseline of quality NHL play to fall back on

He's lighting up the AHL especially as a PPQB, which bodes great for him as a prospect, but he was not a good NHL player this year. And it is okay to not be ready at 20.

Maybe he could have figured it out better with more time and opportunity by just pushing him through and letting him develop against NHL comp, but a team in the looking to compete simply could not afford to let him try and figure it out while being a detriment to the teams chances of winning. Maybe an MTL or Anaheim or Chi or SJS etc can afford to do that, but not NJD.


Am I worried about either of them long term, NOPE, but playing the "which of the dmen should we blame for them sucking together over 9 games and which should we give absolutely 0 fault to" game that ultimately comes down to the guy you previously had a bias for is stupid.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So you let your bias take over and choose to blame Nemec for everything?

It's not bias, its just watching the game. Nemec was extraordinarily terrible in his first 5 games, and still pretty poor for the most part after that.

Casey played the easiest minutes possible, with almost exclusively ozone starts.

I don't harp on deployment in the middle tier where it's mostly splitting hairs, but I cannot think of a dman in the league getting assignments as easy as Casey was. And before you talk about on off, basically every shift that Nemec got away from Casey was generally a tougher deployment in a more defensive situation that Keefe didn't think Casey could handle. (hence why, despite playing on a pairing, Nemecs usage% against elite competion was about DOUBLE what Casey's was

His breakout passes were nice, but he was not good defensively. Got bailed out by a ridiculous like 0.980 SV% or something behind him tho.

You're relying on underlying analytics over a 9 game sample where he played almost exclusively with Nemec, who was making terrible pinches up ice constantly. Casey had 2 bad periods in 9 games.

With Nemec I have 60 games of quality play at the NHL level, with 9 games of struggle this year, which if you want to cop out and be biased you can blame on his injury, casey, or anything else.

No you don't, you have 40. He was very not good in the last 20 games of last season.

With Casey I have 9 games of struggle in the easiest role possible.

Being constantly left out to dry by your D partner to defend 2 on 1s is hardly "the easiest role possible".

Now, you can blame it on Nemec, or playing on the left side if you want. But the problem is there is no baseline of quality NHL play to fall back on

He's lighting up the AHL especially as a PPQB, which bodes great for him as a prospect, but he was not a good NHL player this year. And it is okay to not be ready at 20.

Maybe he could have figured it out better with more time and opportunity by just pushing him through and letting him develop against NHL comp, but a team in the looking to compete simply could not afford to let him try and figure it out while being a detriment to the teams chances of winning. Maybe an MTL or Anaheim or Chi or SJS etc can afford to do that, but not NJD.

A detriment? He scored some huge goals and was a +2. I know you like to harp on underlying numbers, but over a 9 game sample, it's pretty meaningless, especially when the sample is almost exclusively with the same D partner who was struggling mightily.

Am I worried about either of them long term, NOPE, but playing the "which of the dmen should we blame for them sucking together over 9 games and which should we give absolutely 0 fault to" game that ultimately comes down to the guy you previously had a bias for is stupid.

Casey was far from perfect, he had a really bad first period in the game vs Ottawa. There were a few times where he didn't make the right play on the exit, leading to extended defensive shifts. But Nemec was routinely giving up 2 on 1s for Casey to defend, while missing assignments around the net consistently.

I'm confident they'll both be very solid NHL contributors, but Nemec's trajectory starting from the middle of last year is extremely alarming, while Casey's trajectory has been up and to the right.

 

[dgibb10]

It's not bias, its just watching the game. Nemec was extraordinarily terrible in his first 5 games, and still pretty poor for the most part after that.

You're relying on underlying analytics over a 9 game sample where he played almost exclusively with Nemec, who was making terrible pinches up ice constantly. Casey had 2 bad periods in 9 games.

No you don't, you have 40. He was very not good in the last 20 games of last season.

Being constantly left out to dry by your D partner to defend 2 on 1s is hardly "the easiest role possible".


A detriment? He scored some huge goals and was a +2. I know you like to harp on underlying numbers, but over a 9 game sample, it's pretty meaningless, especially when the sample is almost exclusively with the same D partner who was struggling mightily.

Casey was far from perfect, he had a really bad first period in the game vs Ottawa. There were a few times where he didn't make the right play on the exit, leading to extended defensive shifts. But Nemec was routinely giving up 2 on 1s for Casey to defend, while missing assignments around the net consistently.

I'm confident they'll both be very solid NHL contributors, but Nemec's trajectory starting from the middle of last year is extremely alarming, while Casey's trajectory has been up and to the right.

Casey played exclusively ozone deployments against exclusively the other teams depth for 10 minutes a night. When it was a tough matchup, they'd send Nemec out, and not casey.

I watched all of the games. They both sucked.

Nemec was making bad mistakes yes.
Casey looked simply overmatched by the quality and size of even depth NHLers.

"He was a +2"

Lmao his goalies had a 0.980 SV% behind him no shit. It is virtually impossible to be a - when your goalies are saving everything and bailing you out. I thought better of you than to credit dman for getting great goaltending luck behind them.

Getting good luck does not make you effective.

Nemec being a 20 minute a night quality NHL dman at 19 vs Casey being an NCAA player. No shit Casey has a better trend from last year to this year.

You are discrediting Nemec because he was so much better at 19. Nemec has had a tough start to the season yeah.

But I have no reason to believe he will have peaked at 19.

And it would be a good outcome for Seamus Casey if his career level of play ends up at what Simon Nemec did at 19 years old in the NHL.

At least EV. And maybe I underrate Casey's value as a PPQB because NJD does not need a PPQB and so it doesn't matter as much to me.

10 games+20 games last year = 40 games?

His play did take a dip under Travis Green yes to being mediocre (although the whole team had a pretty significant dip under Green's terrorism). Still much better than Casey was this year, but 100% a dip from his absolutely STELLAR play under rufd

But to ignore that excellent play under ruff would be foolish. 19 year old who had a 55.6% xGoals share in real, meaningful minutes.

I would be surprised if Casey ever reaches that level of 5v5 excellence that Nemec showed as a teenager

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Thinking about a package the devils could reasonably offer while still making salaries work:

Simon Nemec
Lenni Hameenaho or Arseny Gritsyuk
Daniil Orlov
Ondrej Palat (3 x $6.0M)
Tomas Tatar (1 x $1.8M)
2026 1st
2025 2nd
2025 2nd

- Potential top pairing dman
- Choice of our best forward prospects, each with top 6 potential
- Promising Russian D prospect
- 3 solid draft picks

Palat and Tatar are dumps, but could earn some value in a future deadline trade with retention. A guy like Palat at 3-4M could probably fetch another 2nd, given his experience and history of elevating his game in the playoffs.

Would leave the devils with bare cupboards, but would also give them arguably the best top 6 in hockey:

Tkachuk - Hughes - Bratt
Noesen - Hischier - Meier

If we're taking Palat and Tatar, Mercer is coming back.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Thinking about a package the devils could reasonably offer while still making salaries work:

Simon Nemec
Lenni Hameenaho or Arseny Gritsyuk
Daniil Orlov
Ondrej Palat (3 x $6.0M)
Tomas Tatar (1 x $1.8M)
2026 1st
2025 2nd
2025 2nd

- Potential top pairing dman
- Choice of our best forward prospects, each with top 6 potential
- Promising Russian D prospect
- 3 solid draft picks

Palat and Tatar are dumps, but could earn some value in a future deadline trade with retention. A guy like Palat at 3-4M could probably fetch another 2nd, given his experience and history of elevating his game in the playoffs.

Would leave the devils with bare cupboards, but would also give them arguably the best top 6 in hockey:

Tkachuk - Hughes - Bratt
Noesen - Hischier - Meier

You’ll have to pawn off those cap dumps on some other sucker, lol

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Casey played exclusively ozone deployments against exclusively the other teams depth for 10 minutes a night. When it was a tough matchup, they'd send Nemec out, and not casey

And he was paired almost exclusively with Nemec.

When he could get away from Nemec, his numbers skyrocketed.

	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	SF	SA	SF%	xGF	xGA	xG%	SCF	SCA	SCF%	HDCF	HDCA	HDCF%
w/o Nemec	19.2	22	15	59.46%	12	8	60.00%	1.15	0.36	76.16%	13	7	65.00%	6	1	85.71%
w/ Nemec	60.4	44	88	33.33%	20	38	34.48%	1.64	4.22	27.99%	23	38	37.70%	7	18	28.00%

He had nearly as many HDCF in 19 mins without Nemec as he did in 60 with Nemec. Nemec was an absolute boat anchor.

But these are all extremely small samples, which is why you should start trying to evaluate the game more with your eyes than with spreadsheets. This is how you missed so badly on your Necas evaluation.

 

[dgibb10]

And he was paired almost exclusively with Nemec.

When he could get away from Nemec, his numbers skyrocketed.

	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	SF	SA	SF%	xGF	xGA	xG%	SCF	SCA	SCF%	HDCF	HDCA	HDCF%
w/o Nemec	19.2	22	15	59.46%	12	8	60.00%	1.15	0.36	76.16%	13	7	65.00%	6	1	85.71%
w/ Nemec	60.4	44	88	33.33%	20	38	34.48%	1.64	4.22	27.99%	23	38	37.70%	7	18	28.00%

He had nearly as many HDCF in 19 mins without Nemec as he did in 60 with Nemec. Nemec was an absolute boat anchor.

But these are all extremely small samples, which is why you should start trying to evaluate the game more with your eyes than with spreadsheets. This is how you missed so badly on your Necas evaluation.

I went through their shift logs.

Most of this "time" away from nemec comes either after a power play (where casey is able to go against 4 guys and tired PKers for longer), or in a tiny portion between changes. Eg, 1 second overlap with siegenthaler and 4 seconds of overlap with hamilton in the entire game vs WSH the first time leading to 0.17 xGoals on ice.

And just to leave an example of how blatant the sheltering was for Casey. NJD played washington twice, and this final game is where Casey picked up his great "away from nemec numbers" in his final game

Casey saw the ice at the same time as Ovechkin for 19 seconds over the course of 2 games.

You can go watch those 7 minutes of ice time and tell me if you are genuinely impressed. Hey, he picked up 0.5 on ice xGoals in that final game with some of the most blatant sheltering I have ever seen though, and then was sent down and replaced by Danill Misyul because no, it is not feasible to hide a guy away for the entire game to only be sent out in ozone shift against the opposing teams scrubs and on the power play.

And when they played together, if it was their turn and there was a tough matchup coming or a dzone start, they'd send Nemec over the boards and a different LD instead of Casey.

Ahh yes, Necas suddenly becoming a guy who shoots at double his expectation was definitely something you predicted.

 

[AirGut]

Trading Brady might actually make the Sens a better team. Between the return and the change in the core/leadership.

He'll be their Kessel.. Clearly talented but won't reach his potential there.

Bingo. This is why I think Ottawa treating Brady like an immortal asset is bananas talk. The owner having a fit over there is as pathetic as Buffalo fumbling around with Eichel.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I went through their shift logs.

Most of this "time" away from nemec comes either after a power play (where casey is able to go against 4 guys and tired PKers for longer), or in a tiny portion between changes. Eg, 1 second overlap with siegenthaler and 4 seconds of overlap with hamilton in the entire game vs WSH the first time leading to 0.17 xGoals on ice.

This is false. Casey played significant stretches in several games completely away from Nemec, which is actually where most of this time came from. This was mostly in situations where they were trailing, so there are some score effects there. And yes, he was getting good zone starts. But those factors are not nearly enough to offset the massive gap in the numbers.

And just to leave an example of how blatant the sheltering was for Casey. NJD played washington twice, and this final game is where Casey picked up his great "away from nemec numbers" in his final game

Casey saw the ice at the same time as Ovechkin for 19 seconds over the course of 2 games.

You can go watch those 7 minutes of ice time and tell me if you are genuinely impressed. Hey, he picked up 0.5 on ice xGoals in that final game with some of the most blatant sheltering I have ever seen though, and then was sent down and replaced by Danill Misyul because no, it is not feasible to hide a guy away for the entire game to only be sent out in ozone shift against the opposing teams scrubs and on the power play.

Don't just look at xG%. Look at the scoring chance counts, these are a high volume of events.

And when they played together, if it was their turn and there was a tough matchup coming or a dzone start, they'd send Nemec over the boards and a different LD instead of Casey.

You keep talking about sheltering, like it's not something that happens to all rookie D.

Nemec is the one we should have been sheltering. He's been a gigantic liability since the middle of last season. I know you love the numbers - look at the chart I shared. His game has completely fallen apart since February.

Ahh yes, Necas suddenly becoming a guy who shoots at double his expectation was definitely something you predicted.

No, but I said he could be a 80-90 point player with the PP1 deployments, which you disagreed with.

Even adjusting for oish%, he's very clearly capable of putting up 80+ points. You called him a 2nd liner and compared him to Sharangovich lol. Watch a game man.