Value of: Brady Tkachuk to the highest bidder (before July 1st)

[canuckslover10]

Buffalo should be all over this.

 

[dgibb10]

This is false. Casey played significant stretches in several games completely away from Nemec, which is actually where most of this time came from. This was mostly in situations where they were trailing, so there are some score effects there. And yes, he was getting good zone starts. But those factors are not nearly enough to offset the massive gap in the numbers.

Don't just look at xG%. Look at the scoring chance counts, these are a high volume of events.

You keep talking about sheltering, like it's not something that happens to all rookie D.

Nemec is the one we should have been sheltering. He's been a gigantic liability since the middle of last season. I know you love the numbers - look at the chart I shared. His game has completely fallen apart since February.

No, but I said he could be a 80-90 point player with the PP1 deployments, which you disagreed with.

Even adjusting for oish%, he's very clearly capable of putting up 80+ points. You called him a 2nd liner and compared him to Sharangovich lol. Watch a game man.

I can show you the shift logs you are objectively wrong.

Game 1. 0 shifts away from Nemec

Game 2. 0 shifts away from Nemec

Game 3: 0 shifts away from Nemec (*Empty net scenario they sent him out)

Game 4: we have 1 approximately 20 second shift away from Nemec, our first of the season

Game 5: stayed out at the end of a PP, but otherwise 0 shifts away from Nemec

Game 6: Late in the game against Carolina, he finally gets a couple shifts at the end when trailing for a goal. 3 shifts without net empty, 1 with net empty

Game 7: Starting to get shifts away now (I imagine keefe was trying to isolate the issue at this point). 5 shifts away from Nemec.

Game 8: Seperate for this game, moved to siegs to be hidden alongside him, at this point it is clear Casey has lost the trust of Keefe, and keefe is just trying to get through until Luke and Pesce get healthy and can replace Casey.

After this he was sent down for Misyul.


"Even adjusting for oish%, he's very clearly capable of putting up 80+ points. "You called him a 2nd liner and compared him to Sharangovich lol. Watch a game man."

I compared his previous production, which was about as close to the names you were throwing out as it was to Yegors, as you tried to suggest he would be worth a top 4 pick something that had never been traded ever, and I told you that teams don't trade top 4 picks for guys who come off 50 point seasons

 

[dgibb10]

This is false. Casey played significant stretches in several games completely away from Nemec, which is actually where most of this time came from. This was mostly in situations where they were trailing, so there are some score effects there. And yes, he was getting good zone starts. But those factors are not nearly enough to offset the massive gap in the numbers.

Don't just look at xG%. Look at the scoring chance counts, these are a high volume of events.

You keep talking about sheltering, like it's not something that happens to all rookie D.

Nemec is the one we should have been sheltering. He's been a gigantic liability since the middle of last season. I know you love the numbers - look at the chart I shared. His game has completely fallen apart since February.

No, but I said he could be a 80-90 point player with the PP1 deployments, which you disagreed with.

Even adjusting for oish%, he's very clearly capable of putting up 80+ points. You called him a 2nd liner and compared him to Sharangovich lol. Watch a game man.

Spot the difference in rookie usage with me:

 

[dgibb10]

This is false. Casey played significant stretches in several games completely away from Nemec, which is actually where most of this time came from. This was mostly in situations where they were trailing, so there are some score effects there. And yes, he was getting good zone starts. But those factors are not nearly enough to offset the massive gap in the numbers.

Don't just look at xG%. Look at the scoring chance counts, these are a high volume of events.

You keep talking about sheltering, like it's not something that happens to all rookie D.

Nemec is the one we should have been sheltering. He's been a gigantic liability since the middle of last season. I know you love the numbers - look at the chart I shared. His game has completely fallen apart since February.

No, but I said he could be a 80-90 point player with the PP1 deployments, which you disagreed with.

Even adjusting for oish%, he's very clearly capable of putting up 80+ points. You called him a 2nd liner and compared him to Sharangovich lol. Watch a game man.

Also, a player having a good season the year after doesn't retroactively change his value.

If you remember one of my key comps for Necas was Sam Reinhart.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I can show you the shift logs you are objectively wrong.

Game 1. 0 shifts away from Nemec
View attachment 943099

Game 2. 0 shifts away from NemecView attachment 943100

Game 3: 0 shifts away from Nemec (*Empty net scenario they sent him out)View attachment 943103

Game 4: we have 1 approximately 20 second shift away from Nemec, our first of the season
View attachment 943101
Game 5: stayed out at the end of a PP, but otherwise 0 shifts away from Nemec
View attachment 943104

Game 6: Late in the game against Carolina, he finally gets a couple shifts at the end when trailing for a goal. 3 shifts without net empty, 1 with net empty
View attachment 943107

Game 7: Starting to get shifts away now (I imagine keefe was trying to isolate the issue at this point). 5 shifts away from Nemec.
View attachment 943118

Game 8: Seperate for this game, moved to siegs to be hidden alongside him, at this point it is clear Casey has lost the trust of Keefe, and keefe is just trying to get through until Luke and Pesce get healthy and can replace Casey.View attachment 943127

You're making my point. Games 6, 7, and 8, he started getting significant stretches without Nemec.

You say he was being hidden with Siegenthaler, but those two excelled together, with a 91% xG%. These weren't on broken shifts like you claimed.

"Even adjusting for oish%, he's very clearly capable of putting up 80+ points. "You called him a 2nd liner and compared him to Sharangovich lol. Watch a game man."

I compared his previous production, which was about as close to the names you were throwing out as it was to Yegors, as you tried to suggest he would be worth a top 4 pick something that had never been traded ever, and I told you that teams don't trade top 4 picks for guys who come off 50 point seasons

You said he was a "good play driver on a 2nd line", who "dragged down the best offensive players on his team". Do you want me to quote you? That's the kind of things you miss when you don't watch the games.

 

[dgibb10]

You're making my point. Games 6, 7, and 8, he started getting significant stretches without Nemec.

You say he was being hidden with Siegenthaler, but those two excelled together, with a 91% xG%. These weren't on broken shifts like you claimed.

You said he was a "good play driver on a 2nd line", who "dragged down the best offensive players on his team". Do you want me to quote you? That's the kind of things you miss when you don't watch the games.

And then after seeing him in that, he was decided that he should be sent down for Danill Misyul.

Yes, in exclusively ozone shifts against exclusively scrubs in 1 game, where any time there was a hard assignment they'd keep casey planted firmly on the bench, he got some offense

Unfortunately you can't afford to roster a dman to play 5 minutes a night

 

[dgibb10]

You're making my point. Games 6, 7, and 8, he started getting significant stretches without Nemec.

You say he was being hidden with Siegenthaler, but those two excelled together, with a 91% xG%. These weren't on broken shifts like you claimed.

You said he was a "good play driver on a 2nd line", who "dragged down the best offensive players on his team". Do you want me to quote you? That's the kind of things you miss when you don't watch the games.

Is he now elevating stars this year?

Because most of his EV production has come as a play driver on a 2nd line (riding unsustainable shooting luck)

And in his minutes with Svechnikov, they are sub 50% xGoals share.
In his minutes with Aho, they are sub 50% xGoals share.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And then after seeing him in that, he was decided that he should be sent down for Danill Misyul.

Yes, in exclusively ozone shifts against exclusively scrubs in 1 game, where any time there was a hard assignment they'd keep casey planted firmly on the bench, he got some offense

Unfortunately you can't afford to roster a dman to play 5 minutes a night

If you're argument was just going to amount to an appeal to authority we both could have saved a lot of time. That's like saying Brendan Smith was better than Luke in 2023 playoffs because Hughes was scratched for Smith.

 

[dgibb10]

If you're argument was just going to amount to an appeal to authority we both could have saved a lot of time. That's like saying Brendan Smith was better than Luke in 2023 playoffs because Hughes was scratched for Smith.

He required incredibly sheltered minutes that made everyone else's life harder to do well against washington.

To cover for that Siegs and Dillon had to make up 23 minutes of EV ce time so Casey could play 7 minutes against exclusively scrubs in the offensive zone

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Is he now elevating stars this year?

Because most of his EV production has come as a play driver on a 2nd line (riding unsustainable shooting luck)

And in his minutes with Svechnikov, they are sub 50% xGoals share.
In his minutes with Aho, they are sub 50% xGoals share.

Jesus dude watch a game. He's gonna blow past 80 points this year and you're calling him a 2nd line player.

 

[dgibb10]

Jesus dude watch a game. He's gonna blow past 80 points this year and you're calling him a 2nd line player.

Yes, he is riding an incredible shooting%.

His EV chance generation is DOWN, and he has the worst expected goals share of any player on his team.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He required incredibly sheltered minutes that made everyone else's life harder to do well against washington.

To cover for that Siegs and Dillon had to make up 23 minutes of EV ce time so Casey could play 7 minutes against exclusively scrubs in the offensive zoneView attachment 943185

You don't know he required anything. That's a decision a coach made

A coach also decided to scratch Luke Hughes for Brendan Smith, I guess that's Luke's fault too?

 

[dgibb10]

You don't know he required anything. That's a decision a coach made

A coach also decided to scratch Luke Hughes for Brendan Smith, I guess that's Luke's fault too?

It was the only time he was successful so it is very clear he required it.

You can lie to yourself about Casey if it makes you feel better.

At that point, you're providing about as much EV as Kurtis Macdermid does in the lineup.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes, he is riding an incredible shooting%.

His EV chance generation is DOWN, and he has the worst expected goals share of any player on his team.

12.99% oish% is high, but far from "incredible". 20.59 ish% should come down as well, but probably only resulting in 5-7 less goals.

Even with average puck luck would still have 30+ points, well above a ppg. Not bad for a 2nd liner.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It was the only time he was successful so it is very clear he required it.

You can lie to yourself about Casey if it makes you feel better.

At that point, you're providing about as much EV as Kurtis Macdermid does in the lineup.

The data actually suggests he just required getting away from Nemec, considering how he was already getting sheltered alongside Nemec beforehand (as you've consistently pointed out). You're just unable to see this because of your bias.

You can lie to yourself about Casey if it makes you feel better.

 

[dgibb10]

12.99% oish% is high, but far from "incredible". 20.59 ish% should come down as well, but probably only resulting in 5-7 less goals.

Even with average puck luck would still have 30+ points, well above a ppg. Not bad for a 2nd liner.

"Only 7 less goals".

That would be half his goals, and put him on pace for 21 on the season.


His total OISH% is currently 16.5% (hockey reference), or 15.8% (evolving hockey). Previously

I think this may have something to do with a difference between the new NHL ruling about how own goals count as shots.

22% on the PP

13% EV

His chance generation numbers haven't improved (in fact his EV ones have dropped).

The data actually suggests he just required getting away from Nemec, considering how he was already getting sheltered alongside Nemec beforehand (as you've consistently pointed out). You're just unable to see this because of your bias.

You can lie to yourself about Casey if it makes you feel better.

This was an even more ridiculous level of sheltering.

This was actively ensuring that he only saw the ice in basically perfect conditions.

And I have NEVER claimed Nemec was good this year.


If you need to be babysat by Siegs in babyfood minutes to be helpful for 6 minutes a game, you aren't an NHL caliber player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

"Only 7 less goals".

That would be half his goals, and put him on pace for 21 on the season.


His total OISH% is currently 16.5% (hockey reference), or 15.8% (evolving hockey). Previously

I think this may have something to do with a difference between the new NHL ruling about how own goals count as shots.

22% on the PP

13% EV

5-7 less goals would give him 35-37 points.

15.8% in all situations isn't outrageously high for a guy PP1 deployments. That should probably be closer to 12% for a high level offensive player. Reduce his point totals proportionally and he's still at 30+ points

This was an even more ridiculous level of sheltering.

This was actively ensuring that he only saw the ice in basically perfect conditions.

And I have NEVER claimed Nemec was good this year.


If you need to be babysat by Siegs in babyfood minutes to be helpful for 6 minutes a game, you aren't an NHL caliber player.

It sounds like he just needed to get away from Nemec. The data supports this. The eye test supports this. You're appealing to authority instead of looking at it objectively.

 

[dgibb10]

5-7 less goals would give him 35-37 points.

15.8% in all situations isn't outrageously high for a guy PP1 deployments. That should probably be closer to 12% for a high level offensive player. Reduce his point totals proportionally and he's still at 30+ points

His career on ice numbers are

15% PP

9.2% overall.

He can be a PPG guy when given PP1 deployments on an already top tier power play and still fall into the exact range of Debrincat (2nd time) and Fiala that I quoted him in.

 

[goonybird]

Casey is going to be an effective NHL player, he just needs to get fit, used to the schedule, put on some muscle, and spend a year and a bit in the minors doing it.

 

[dgibb10]

Casey is going to be an effective NHL player, he just needs to get fit, used to the schedule, put on some muscle, and spend a year and a bit in the minors doing it.

100% he will be

However it just makes us look bad and lose credibility to claim that he was good in his time in the NHL this year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

His career on ice numbers are

15% PP

9.2% overall.

His career average is 10.5% in all situations, with much of his career being on PP2 (proportionally less PP time), as well as several seasons in lower sh% seasons.

12% is pretty reasonable for a guy with his skillset.

He can be a PPG guy when given PP1 deployments on an already top tier power play and still fall into the exact range of Debrincat (2nd time) and Fiala that I quoted him in.

How many 2nd line players are 80+ point guys with Drury, Kotkaniemi, and Robinson as his linemates.

Also, you claimed that Necas was nowhere near Debrincat. Oof.

 

[goonybird]

100% he will be

However it just makes us look bad and lose credibility to claim that he was good in his time in the NHL this year.

I do think the Nemec pairing was unfair to both of them

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

Buffalo should be all over this.

From one shithole to another? idk how that would work

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

If this was a year and a half ago I could totally see a Tkachuk for Lafreniere one for one swap.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

Alexis Lafreniere
Kandre Miller
1st

It’s realistically the best offer out there for the sens