Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[ToneDog]

Honestly, look at the teams you just referenced. Chicago, Columbus, San Jose, Ottawa, Anaheim, Seattle, Islanders, Nashville, Buffalo...all either dreadful or pretty mediocre teams (and, yes, I know that Toronto has already lost to some of those teams, but that makes it even more likely that they will not lose again to them). The Boston and Florida games are in Toronto, so I think the Leafs will win those ones. Probably for sure one loss to the Rangers. Maybe a loss to Carolina, but that team is playing pretty poorly these days and the Leafs always seem to have their number. It's a great schedule for the Leafs. It will allow them to make up a lot of ground on Boston and separate from Florida.

I can see losses to NYR, LA, Carolina, Ottawa, Dubas. Then you have the losses you can't see until they mail it in. That is why I can't see them going 15-3-2.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Honestly, look at the teams you just referenced. Chicago, Columbus, San Jose, Ottawa, Anaheim, Seattle, Islanders, Nashville, Buffalo...all either dreadful or pretty mediocre teams (and, yes, I know that Toronto has already lost to some of those teams, but that makes it even more likely that they will not lose again to them). The Boston and Florida games are in Toronto, so I think the Leafs will win those ones. Probably for sure one loss to the Rangers. Maybe a loss to Carolina, but that team is playing pretty poorly these days and the Leafs always seem to have their number. It's a great schedule for the Leafs. It will allow them to make up a lot of ground on Boston and separate from Florida.

Except that it doesn't really work that way though.

If you've been watching this team play, I don't see how you could possibly think that this team is about to go on a run. Our opponents are all NHL teams, and playing pond hockey against them will fail miserably in the long run.

 

[Evilhomer]

Except that it doesn't really work that way though.

If you've been watching this team play, I don't see how you could possibly think that this team is about to go on a run. Our opponents are all NHL teams, and playing pond hockey against them will fail miserably in the long run.

They're on a run right now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

They're on a run right now.

Which is unsustainable because of the way they're playing - pond hockey.

 

[Apex Predator]

What could he possibly do though now that Marner's NMC has kicked in? I don't think trading Nylander is the answer, pressuring Marner to waive is what I'd try to do but I don't think he's going there, with all that talent the 2nd most logical option is to keep doing what Dubas was doing - build around the core, sell futures to win now, can do that for another year or two when we'll be out of tradeable futures and then we're really cooked.

A deal with Calgary seems likely, a lot of noise there and giving up a 1st and whatever else for a couple of Dmen seems likely, the team will still be worse than the one that got crushed by Florida, by next summer people will be calling for Tre's head is the most likely scenario. JMHO.

I can see everyone calling for Tre’s head after this season. Maybe at that point all leaf fans will be united together again!

 

[Evilhomer]

Which is unsustainable because of the way they're playing - pond hockey.

I can't disagree with you on that point. I do think it has been a bit better in the last few games, but playing these mediocre teams is doing them no favours because it is too easy for them to fall back on their skill. The reality, however, is that this style of play works in the regular season, which is why I think they can win so many of these games almost regardless of how they play.

 

[GoonieFace]

What could he possibly do though now that Marner's NMC has kicked in? I don't think trading Nylander is the answer, pressuring Marner to waive is what I'd try to do but I don't think he's going there, with all that talent the 2nd most logical option is to keep doing what Dubas was doing - build around the core, sell futures to win now, can do that for another year or two when we'll be out of tradeable futures and then we're really cooked.

A deal with Calgary seems likely, a lot of noise there and giving up a 1st and whatever else for a couple of Dmen seems likely, the team will still be worse than the one that got crushed by Florida, by next summer people will be calling for Tre's head is the most likely scenario. JMHO.

IMO, I would try and trade Marner for a top Dman, but easier said than done. And I don’t get the feeling they are even willing to make a bold move. Just keep shuffling the deck chairs and maybe it will eventually work?

 

[ToneDog]

IMO, I would try and trade Marner for a top Dman, but easier said than done. And I don’t get the feeling they are even willing to make a bold move. Just keep shuffling the deck chairs and maybe it will eventually work?

Who is going to give up a top dman for an $10.893m winger who will be looking for $12+m in 9 months?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I can't disagree with you on that point. I do think it has been a bit better in the last few games, but playing these mediocre teams is doing them no favours because it is too easy for them to fall back on their skill. The reality, however, is that this style of play works in the regular season, which is why I think they can win so many of these games almost regardless of how they play.

They've been so much better defensively the last few seasons, this style of play is something new, or at least playing like this on a regular basis is something new.

One thing I like to keep my eye on is goals differential, I've found that to be a a good indicator of which teams are overachieving/underachieving. We're +2 which is really bad, we've been lucky to win as much as we have been and even at that we're only 11th overall.

You were wrong when you said with great confidence that we'd beat Boston, you were wrong when you said with great confidence that we'd Buffalo and it's highly likely that you're wrong again when you say we're probably going to go on a tear now and take over 1st place in January.

IMO, I would try and trade Marner for a top Dman, but easier said than done. And I don’t get the feeling they are even willing to make a bold move. Just keep shuffling the deck chairs and maybe it will eventually work?

I think they're too concerned about their image to ask Marner to waive. Toronto the good, LOL.

 

[GoonieFace]

Who is going to give up a top dman for an $10.893m winger who will be looking for $12+m in 9 months?

Good question, but from what I’ve read he is an elite player and penalty killer, so the line should be long….

 

[Dekes For Days]

According to my list?

Yes, according to your list that uses exclusively a select few trades involving picks to evaluate a GM, trading Knies would make Dubas a better GM than trading a 2nd round pick.
It wouldn't even show up on your list, which just goes to show how much of the bigger picture you're missing.

The Leafs prospect pool is not in a good state. 3 Dubas drafted players, play in the top 9? Knies and Robertson (handful of games so far), is the other one you are referring to Minten?

Some people seem to think that if you don't have any A++++ prospects in your pool, it's bad, but that's untrue, and a wildly unrealistic expectation of a perennial playoff team. The fact is, we're in a pretty good spot. We had two prospects graduate this year to fill top-9 roles on the NHL team while on their ELCs, we had another make the team on their ELC in a top 9 role as a teenager before being sent back, and we've had two more spend time in depth roles in Holmberg and McMann. I'm not sure how anybody could complain about the internal prospect value we're getting this year. And then we got Cowan dominating the OHL, and Grebyonkin winning KHL rookie of the year, and Niemela excelling in the AHL, and a bunch of forward prospects producing well in the AHL, multiple goalies dominating in their leagues, etc.

People are so focused on the picks that went out, and Dubas gets no credit for keeping all of the top prospects, getting picks back, and getting value out of the picks he had, even though we're literally benefitting from it now.

You are arguing that there is more internal help today (2023) than 7 years ago?

No, I'm talking about help from our pre-Dubas prospect pool after Dubas took over. We drafted poorly outside of our lottery picks for years in the early-mid 2010s, and then we drained pretty much the entire prospect pool we did have into the NHL at the same time in 2016-2017. And then Lou traded picks for a starting goalie. And then we were instantly a playoff team. Which then led to Lou not selling off our previous generation's depth for picks, and spending picks on rentals, and then he topped it off by drafting poorly.

So by the time Dubas took over, our prospect pool was drained and unreplenished, most of the prospects we had put into the NHL were coming off their ELCs and getting more expensive, and the previous generation's depth had become UFAs and left. And then mix in a pandemic, and when we needed cheap ELC depth the most, it wasn't there.

Dubas navigated through that really well with his own drafting, undrafted free agents, and a smart eye in free agency, and despite the spending of picks that teams in our position do, we came out of it with our prospect pool in a much better state, and providing immediate top-9 ELC value to his successor. And yet he still gets blamed for doing something that any GM would have and has done in his position.

 

[ACC1224]

Good question, but from what I’ve read he is an elite player and penalty killer, so the line should be long….

You think there is a long line of teams looking to trade top defensemen?
Any examples?

 

[GoonieFace]

You think there is a long line of teams looking to trade top defensemen?
Any examples?

There should be for a super elite player like Mitchy….

 

[ACC1224]

There should be for a super elite player like Mitchy….

Putting the failure to understand he has a NMC aside, any examples of players that 'should be' available?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Putting the failure to understand he has a NMC aside, any examples of players that 'should be' available?

Well if teams view Marner the way you do - super crazy elite - wouldn't just about everyone be available?

 

[Lemontree]

Yes, according to your list that uses exclusively a select few trades involving picks to evaluate a GM, trading Knies would make Dubas a better GM than trading a 2nd round pick.
It wouldn't even show up on your list, which just goes to show how much of the bigger picture you're missing.

Some people seem to think that if you don't have any A++++ prospects in your pool, it's bad, but that's untrue, and a wildly unrealistic expectation of a perennial playoff team. The fact is, we're in a pretty good spot. We had two prospects graduate this year to fill top-9 roles on the NHL team while on their ELCs, we had another make the team on their ELC in a top 9 role as a teenager before being sent back, and we've had two more spend time in depth roles in Holmberg and McMann. I'm not sure how anybody could complain about the internal prospect value we're getting this year. And then we got Cowan dominating the OHL, and Grebyonkin winning KHL rookie of the year, and Niemela excelling in the AHL, and a bunch of forward prospects producing well in the AHL, multiple goalies dominating in their leagues, etc.

People are so focused on the picks that went out, and Dubas gets no credit for keeping all of the top prospects, getting picks back, and getting value out of the picks he had, even though we're literally benefitting from it now.

No, I'm talking about help from our pre-Dubas prospect pool after Dubas took over. We drafted poorly outside of our lottery picks for years in the early-mid 2010s, and then we drained pretty much the entire prospect pool we did have into the NHL at the same time in 2016-2017. And then Lou traded picks for a starting goalie. And then we were instantly a playoff team. Which then led to Lou not selling off our previous generation's depth for picks, and spending picks on rentals, and then he topped it off by drafting poorly.

So by the time Dubas took over, our prospect pool was drained and unreplenished, most of the prospects we had put into the NHL were coming off their ELCs and getting more expensive, and the previous generation's depth had become UFAs and left. And then mix in a pandemic, and when we needed cheap ELC depth the most, it wasn't there.

Dubas navigated through that really well with his own drafting, undrafted free agents, and a smart eye in free agency, and despite the spending of picks that teams in our position do, we came out of it with our prospect pool in a much better state, and providing immediate top-9 ELC value to his successor. And yet he still gets blamed for doing something that any GM would have and has done in his position.

They all were just graduating to the NHL...Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Levo, Soshnikov, Gauthier, Dermott, Johnsson all played games in 2017 when Dubas was announced as the GM. Prospect pool might have been weak because they graduated 9 players.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They all were just graduating to the NHL...Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Brown, Levo, Soshnikov, Gauthier, Dermott, Johnsson all played games in 2017 when Dubas was announced as the GM. Prospect pool might have been weak because they graduated 9 players.

Dubas took over in 2018, not 2017. They weren't graduating. Most of those were long graduated for years, and many done their ELCs. Soshnikov wasn't even here anymore. He'd been traded. We dumped our prospect pool into the NHL in 2015 and 2016 and didn't replenish it until Dubas. That's going to create issues in 2018 and beyond. Even more when there's a pandemic stagnating the cap and you need cheap ELC depth the most. Dubas maneuvered really well through that situation, kept us consistently competitive and went for it while replenishing the pool and providing significant ELC value to his successor, and somehow still gets blamed. Mind-boggling.

 

[Lemontree]

Dubas took over in 2018, not 2017. They weren't graduating. Most of those were long graduated for years, and many done their ELCs. Soshnikov wasn't even here anymore. He'd been traded. We dumped our prospect pool into the NHL in 2015 and 2016 and didn't replenish it until Dubas. That's going to create issues in 2018 and beyond. Even more when there's a pandemic stagnating the cap and you need cheap ELC depth the most. Dubas maneuvered really well through that situation, kept us consistently competitive and went for it while replenishing the pool and providing significant ELC value to his successor, and somehow still gets blamed. Mind-boggling.

First accurate thing you have posted in this entire thread. Matthews and Marner were absolutely still on their ELCs when Dubas took over, I don't feel like looking up the rest. All the players I listed where on cheap contracts and used in the 2017 season to fill spots internally.

 

[Dekes For Days]

First accurate thing you have posted in this entire thread. Matthews and Marner were absolutely still on their ELCs when Dubas took over, I don't feel like looking up the rest. All the players I listed where on cheap contracts and used in the 2017 season to fill spots internally.

Everything I've posted has been accurate. Again, Dubas took over in 2018, not 2017. Matthews and Marner had 1 year left on their ELC. Dermott had 2. Soshnikov was traded. Everybody else you listed was done their ELCs. They were not part of our prospect pool when Dubas took over; ready to come in and provide ELC value in 2019 and beyond when we needed it.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Except that it doesn't really work that way though.

If you've been watching this team play, I don't see how you could possibly think that this team is about to go on a run. Our opponents are all NHL teams, and playing pond hockey against them will fail miserably in the long run.

They have 9 of a possible 10 points in their last 5 games they are on a run.

 

[Lemontree]

Everything I've posted has been accurate. Again, Dubas took over in 2018, not 2017. Matthews and Marner had 1 year left on their ELC. Dermott had 2. Soshnikov was traded. Everybody else you listed was done their ELCs. They were not part of our prospect pool when Dubas took over; ready to come in and provide ELC value in 2019 and beyond when we needed it.

I'm starting to get in line with your thinking. Dubas took over at really poor time, not his fault. What was he expected to do with a young core of: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Reilly all in place and years from UFA status. Dubas was dealt a bad hand by not having a couple of 4th line players available on ELCs......what a tough position for a new GM to step into.

 

[Gary Nylund]

They have 9 of a possible 10 points in their last 5 games they are on a run.

So you agree that 15-3-2 in the next 20 games (including today) is a reasonable prediction?

I admire your optimism but 9 points out of 10 is in no way indicative of the way the team has played. JMHO.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

So you agree that 15-3-2 in the next 20 games (including today) is a reasonable prediction?

I admire your optimism but 9 points out of 10 is in no way indicative of the way the team has played. JMHO.

I'd have to look at the next 20 games, see who is on the schedule but this team absolutely has the talent to go 14-6 or 15- in next 20.

I know the next 4 are Pittsburgh, Florida, Seattle and Boston.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'd have to look at the next 20 games, see who is on the schedule but this team absolutely has the talent to go 14-6 or 15- in next 20.

I know the next 4 are Pittsburgh, Florida, Seattle and Boston.

This teal has always had talent. All we know for sure, is how they've played to this point and it ain't a pretty picture. Play like crap, and win doesn't bode well for the future.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This teal has always had talent. All we know for sure, is how they've played to this point and it ain't a pretty picture. Play like crap, and win doesn't bode well for the future.

Said it before and will say it again goaltending is a BIG issue for this team.

If You want proof of what I'm talking about and have been talking about all season go watch the first 2 goals against.

A real goaltender doesn't let either of those in.

Samsonov does consistently and that's my issue with him and always has been.

Woll's starting to let in softies too, although not quite as bad yet.