Post-Game Talk: Best in the league. 7 in a row. Jets win 3-0

[Skidooboy]

I'd f***ing laugh my ass off if the Jets go on another 15-1 tear... just to hear what the "well, if you eliminate their 15-1 stretch of hockey, they aren't all that good" crowd would say lol

been looking at that...
I don't like the way people were breaking up the season to highlight the "bad streaks"
so..10 game segments...55 games
Here's how the season breaks..
9-1
8-2
4-6
6-4
6-4
5-???

the "big dip" really has less and less impact if you don't stare directly at it and cherry pick the stats...

Jets are at 38 wins in 55 games........
projection at this rate is 56.5 wins and 117 points
As we sit today...5 wins away from the best 1.0 season 14 shy the best Jets 2.0 season of 52
even at .500 hockey here on out the Jets will win 54.5 games!!!!!

of course we only beat teams that are bellow us in the standings..

Division? Central 14-5-0 Pacific 8-4-3 Metro 6-1-0 Atlantic 10-4-0
Western Conference 22-9-3 Eastern 16-5-0

25 teams played
12 we are "perfect" against, 6 we have a winning record against, 7 we have an even record with
teams we have losing records against? Kings 0-1-1, Ducks 0-1-1...

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I don't think he's doing that, i think he's just pointing out that some on here just keep waiting to say see i knew the Jets weren't that good if we lose a couple of games. Like saying that wasn't Carolina's best game by a mile, maybe that is their best game against this team. I know you didn't say that bye the way but another poster just did.

His only posts anymore are griping about an imaginary group of posters that think the Jets are bad... based on Garret's blog - which actually says the Jets are an elite defensive team... its too bad, he used to be fun

 

[Buffdog]

been looking at that...
I don't like the way people were breaking up the season to highlight the "bad streaks"
so..10 game segments...55 games
Here's how the season breaks..
9-1
8-2
4-6
6-4
6-4
5-???

the "big dip" really has less and less impact if you don't stare directly at it and cherry pick the stats...

Jets are at 38 wins in 55 games........
projection at this rate is 56.5 wins and 117 points
As we sit today...5 wins away from the best 1.0 season 14 shy the best Jets 2.0 season of 52
even at .500 hockey here on out the Jets will win 54.5 games!!!!!

of course we only beat teams that are bellow us in the standings..

Division? Central 14-5-0 Pacific 8-4-3 Metro 6-1-0 Atlantic 10-4-0
Western Conference 22-9-3 Eastern 16-5-0

25 teams played
12 we are "perfect" against, 6 we have a winning record against, 7 we have an even record with
teams we have losing records against? Kings 0-1-1, Ducks 0-1-1...

Well said

A 115 point season breaks down to 14 points every 10 games or so

In a perfect world, a team hitting that will have a 7-3 record across each and every 10 game sample size. Then we'd know for sure that the team's record reflects their ability

But no team does that (although the Caps seem to be pretty close this year). Injuries, schedules, etc will make some 10 game stretches better than others.

The idea of eliminating the stretches you don't think reflect the teams ability is EXACTLY how data analysis ISN'T done (not to mention choosing dofferent sample sizes to compare). You let the numbers shape your conclusion, not the other way around

 

[Gm0ney]

I know I have overstated my new “the journey is the destination” chant but that photo actually captures the main reason. Those great Jets 1.0 teams could never get it done in the playoffs. Their prime version was trapped in a division vs the Prime Oiler dynasty which robbed that group of probably one or two deep runs. The payoff was never there in the playoffs yet it was so sad when that building came down because the hockey memories are about so much more than a cup, or a long playoff run. IF/when great things happen in a playoff run that is a cherry on top but it’s not the actual dessert, the real body of the work is a collection of all the games over the years. The long winters listening to the games on the radio, watching on tv, attending live on those special nights or crappy nights, watching with buddies or family, chatting with groups of people about the team……the highs and the lows and everything in between.

Stats guys have pointed out that the 82 game regular season is more representative of a team's real level of play than a four 7 game series playoff tournament. Anything can happen in a series...upsets are common.

 

[Huffer]

Super happy for Comrie to get the win and shutout. I've been saying he's been playing well but just not getting the support so it's nice to see him get this one last night.

Overall I thought the team played well. Really liked the pace at times and thought both teams were playing fast.

Can't say much about a PP that is staying absolutely scorching hot besides keep it going!

Don't want to get too ahead, but the ENP line has played very well lately. They've seemed much more in synch. I don't have a technical reason to point to however, just seems like they're generating more chances, and creating more in the offensive zone, and not just off the rush. And not sacrificing D.

Nice to see Kupari and Gus playing well too in their roles. I commented on Gus more than a few games ago when he wasn't getting any love, so nice to see he's getting some.

Nino and Names (but especially Nino) have been absolutely slam dunk acquisitions. Didn't cost 1st round picks to acquire and both have turned out to not strictly be rentals.

The D had a solid game as well. Stan gets heat for bad games, so might as well give him credit when he plays a solid and unnoticeable (in a good way) game.

 

[Jets 31]

His only posts anymore are griping about an imaginary group of posters that think the Jets are bad... based on Garret's blog - which actually says the Jets are an elite defensive team... its too bad, he used to be fun

I don't know i think everyone on here can be fun, even @sipowicz .

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

been looking at that...
I don't like the way people were breaking up the season to highlight the "bad streaks"
so..10 game segments...55 games
Here's how the season breaks..
9-1
8-2
4-6
6-4
6-4
5-???

the "big dip" really has less and less impact if you don't stare directly at it and cherry pick the stats...

Jets are at 38 wins in 55 games........
projection at this rate is 56.5 wins and 117 points
As we sit today...5 wins away from the best 1.0 season 14 shy the best Jets 2.0 season of 52
even at .500 hockey here on out the Jets will win 54.5 games!!!!!

of course we only beat teams that are bellow us in the standings..

Division? Central 14-5-0 Pacific 8-4-3 Metro 6-1-0 Atlantic 10-4-0
Western Conference 22-9-3 Eastern 16-5-0

25 teams played
12 we are "perfect" against, 6 we have a winning record against, 7 we have an even record with
teams we have losing records against? Kings 0-1-1, Ducks 0-1-1...

If you look at the advanced stats - 16 games is actually a pretty reasonable way to break up the season... when you ignore the four game losing streak where the team was gassed - its impressive

First 16 - Winning Streak (15-1) - bit of an easier sched
Second 16 - Road Trip (6-8-2) - garbage sched
Third 16 - December (9-5-2) - samberg returns
Fourth 16 - Winning streak (7-0) - Parker Ford era begins

Pretty tough call at TD (assuming Stan is untouchable)... lots of teams still in it and a real danger to mess with the chemistry here

 

[Buffdog]

Super happy for Comrie to get the win and shutout. I've been saying he's been playing well but just not getting the support so it's nice to see him get this one last night.

Overall I thought the team played well. Really liked the pace at times and thought both teams were playing fast.

Can't say much about a PP that is staying absolutely scorching hot besides keep it going!

Don't want to get too ahead, but the ENP line has played very well lately. They've seemed much more in synch. I don't have a technical reason to point to however, just seems like they're generating more chances, and creating more in the offensive zone, and not just off the rush. And not sacrificing D.

Nice to see Kupari and Gus playing well too in their roles. I commented on Gus more than a few games ago when he wasn't getting any love, so nice to see he's getting some.

Nino and Names (but especially Nino) have been absolutely slam dunk acquisitions. Didn't cost 1st round picks to acquire and both have turned out to not strictly be rentals.

The D had a solid game as well. Stan gets heat for bad games, so might as well give him credit when he plays a solid and unnoticeable (in a good way) game.

Re: ENP...

Names has looked really, really good the last stretch of games. Makes you wonder if there's a need to upgrade there, or if the cost to do so is worth the amount of upgrade you'd get

 

[Skidooboy]

I'm not your friend, fella, and, yes, seeking to create conflict and troll in a 7 game win streak is the behaviour of a socially maladjusted dick.

lol. all I can hear is this

 

[White Out 902]

I can't believe we're relitigating that awful stretch of hockey and pretending we all knew everything was going to be fine. We had an amazing start, and then, for the equivalent of 25% of the season, the Jets were playing bottom-five hockey at five-on-five. They legitimately looked like hot ass. I just think it's so weird that people can't admit the Jets were playing like shit, and luckily for all of us, they've found another gear and turned it around. But the gaslighting—pretending it was just hysteria and not a genuine reason for concern—is just that. Gas lighting.

 

[macmaroon]

Ha, maybe I saw you there. It was stupid leaving the convention center.

If you saw me, I was sitting in my Saturn listening to country music in the lower level waiting for the lineup to dissipate...

 

[Moloch]

I'm not your friend, fella, and, yes, seeking to create conflict and troll in a 7 game win streak is the behaviour of a socially maladjusted dick.

Im not going to lie here, "seeking to create conflict" is a reach because up until you brought animosity in here out of nowhere, there weren't any rifts. All that guy said is it'd be funny if we went on another run and the naysayers were proven wrong.

Additionally, you can argue that there aren't any naysayers to begin with but that is limited to your own sphere of influence.. If you hop on twitter (which I try to avoid) they are everywhere.

 

[gojetsgo]

I guess it was just a coincidence that the jets had a dip in play during what was essentially a 14 game road trip playing every other day, people were just gas lighting when they said they were fatigued and just needed rest, I guess they didn't turn it around and started playing much better when they got that rest...

 

[CorgisPer60]

Yeah, a 10-point deficit with two games in hand is virtually insurmountable. The Jets would have to go on a hell of a losing skid to lose their effective stranglehold on first in the division. Yes, I know they've done that before - going from first in the West to barely making it into the playoffs was a hell of an epic collapse. This team feels different though.

 

[Flair Hay]

I can't believe we're relitigating that awful stretch of hockey and pretending we all knew everything was going to be fine. We had an amazing start, and then, for the equivalent of 25% of the season, the Jets were playing bottom-five hockey at five-on-five. They legitimately looked like hot ass. I just think it's so weird that people can't admit the Jets were playing like shit, and luckily for all of us, they've found another gear and turned it around. But the gaslighting—pretending it was just hysteria and not a genuine reason for concern—is just that. Gas lighting.

I don't think it was gaslighting, there was definitely a solid contingent of folks who thought the main cause was the schedule and we would be able to turn it around once that was done.

So far, credit to them they look like they were right. That's the way i remember the discourse.

 

[Gm0ney]

If you look at the advanced stats - 16 games is actually a pretty reasonable way to break up the season... when you ignore the four game losing streak where the team was gassed - its impressive

First 16 - Winning Streak (15-1) - bit of an easier sched
Second 16 - Road Trip (6-8-2) - garbage sched
Third 16 - December (9-5-2) - samberg returns
Fourth 16 - Winning streak (7-0) - Parker Ford era begins

Pretty tough call at TD (assuming Stan is untouchable)... lots of teams still in it and a real danger to mess with the chemistry here

been looking at that...
I don't like the way people were breaking up the season to highlight the "bad streaks"
so..10 game segments...55 games
Here's how the season breaks..
9-1
8-2
4-6
6-4
6-4
5-???

the "big dip" really has less and less impact if you don't stare directly at it and cherry pick the stats...

Jets are at 38 wins in 55 games........
projection at this rate is 56.5 wins and 117 points
As we sit today...5 wins away from the best 1.0 season 14 shy the best Jets 2.0 season of 52
even at .500 hockey here on out the Jets will win 54.5 games!!!!!

of course we only beat teams that are bellow us in the standings..

Division? Central 14-5-0 Pacific 8-4-3 Metro 6-1-0 Atlantic 10-4-0
Western Conference 22-9-3 Eastern 16-5-0

25 teams played
12 we are "perfect" against, 6 we have a winning record against, 7 we have an even record with
teams we have losing records against? Kings 0-1-1, Ducks 0-1-1...

Binning is a bit arbitrary by nature. 10 games, 16 games, 1st half/2nd half, all well and good. 10 is a nice round decimal number. Very Metric. (BTW: the Jets' December 6-4 is really 6-2-2, so in points% terms it's .700 and January was 6-3-1/.650 - 6-4 makes it look like they were just .600 in both bins, but they were better).

16 game bins make sense because that isolates the crazy hot streak to start the season - and why would we want to do that? Because we're cherry picking, of course! Wait, no - it's because we recognize that hot streak as an unusual event - so separating that from what happened after might give us a better picture of what's more realistic for the team.

The fact that the slump came directly on the heels of the streak is a good example of regression. Then take the two bins together and you get a mean: 15-1-0 + 7-8-1 = 22-9-1 = .703 which is closer to reality than the .937 the Jets were rocking in their first 16 games, OR the .469 in their second 16. Right now they're .718, so pretty close.

 

[surixon]

Re: ENP...

Names has looked really, really good the last stretch of games. Makes you wonder if there's a need to upgrade there, or if the cost to do so is worth the amount of upgrade you'd get

I'd like to see them score some more at 5 on 5. They are generating a lot of looks but need to start capitalizing a bit more.

 

[Thechozen1]

I'm not your friend, fella, and, yes, seeking to create conflict and troll in a 7 game win streak is the behaviour of a socially maladjusted dick.

To be fair, I think you just misinterpreted the point he was making but whatever!

 

[buggs]

If you saw me, I was sitting in my Saturn listening to country music in the lower level waiting for the lineup to dissipate...

There can't be that many Saturn's left around Winnipeg these days.

 

[Buffdog]

I can't believe we're relitigating that awful stretch of hockey and pretending we all knew everything was going to be fine. We had an amazing start, and then, for the equivalent of 25% of the season, the Jets were playing bottom-five hockey at five-on-five. They legitimately looked like hot ass. I just think it's so weird that people can't admit the Jets were playing like shit, and luckily for all of us, they've found another gear and turned it around. But the gaslighting—pretending it was just hysteria and not a genuine reason for concern—is just that. Gas lighting.

It wasn't luck that they started playing better (or "turned it around")

Their "schedule from hell" ended

We all tried telling you that that would happen, but you wouldn't listen. We were right, you were wrong. End of story

 

[Skidooboy]

I can't believe we're relitigating that awful stretch of hockey and pretending we all knew everything was going to be fine. We had an amazing start, and then, for the equivalent of 25% of the season, the Jets were playing bottom-five hockey at five-on-five. They legitimately looked like hot ass. I just think it's so weird that people can't admit the Jets were playing like shit, and luckily for all of us, they've found another gear and turned it around. But the gaslighting—pretending it was just hysteria and not a genuine reason for concern—is just that. Gas lighting.

I wasn't concerned, despite the worry and weird groupings of the fancy stats crowd....

it was a single 4 game losing streak. That's really all it was... something pretty much every team out there faces over a season.
Jets were Due some losses, the sched was a JOKE, one of the worst I've ever seen. and we still were looking at a top 5 spot in the standings and home Ice in the playoffs.

so I had a slight hiccup...but I wasn't that worried.

my rule is ..
A loss is fine
2 is ok
3 is worrying
4 is upsetting
5 is panic.
6 is really panic
7+ the season is probably done.

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't think it was gaslighting, there was definitely a solid contingent of folks who thought the main cause was the schedule and we would be able to turn it around once that was done.

So far, credit to them they look like they were right. That's the way i remember the discourse.

There were a few folks who thought the sky was falling...Yes, the schedule was rough, but it was a precipitous drop in play and results compared to the heady days of 15-1.

This was after the loss to the Ducks on December 18:


I can understand why there was concern. Concern was definitely warranted.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Can't think of a more pessimistic neurotic NHL fan group then the Jets one. Guess it comes from living in Winnipeg

Every where I look people are discounting this team way too much. Just enjoy it for now and we can bitch IF they can't bounced in the playoffs

 

[Gm0ney]

Can't think of a more pessimistic neurotic NHL fan group then the Jets one. Guess it comes from living in Winnipeg

Every where I look people are discounting this team way too much. Just enjoy it for now and we can bitch IF they can't bounced in the playoffs

Lol, what happened? We just beat the 5th place Canes, two days after beating the 2nd place Capitals - and we're in 1st? And people are dredging up bad feeling about the slump? Who started this crap? Oh...wait, I think I know...

 

[macmaroon]

There can't be that many Saturn's left around Winnipeg these days.

No, there are not. Funny thing was that I drive a 2002 Silver Blue Saturn SL1 and someone down the street from where I live had the exact same car, colour, model, and all! Except mine is still on the road, 380,000 kms later...