Despite the core four collectively producing more than they ever have, while taking up the lowest percentage of the cap that they ever have, and despite the team benefiting from the most internal graduates to the NHL since 2016-2017, we got worse in points, wins, regulation/OT wins, regulations wins, goal differential, and expected goal differential. Treliving failed his top priority last year to address the top-4 of our defense, with Muzzin lost to injury, Holl departing to UFA, and Brodie/Giordano facing potential declines. We shifted money from defense/goaltending to forward, when we should have done the opposite. And we didn't even get forwards that could help support our rookies and young influx. Treliving focused so heavily on "snot" and went to misguided and problematic targets that featured some of the worst defensive players in the league.
Our defensive results predictably dropped off, and we ended with the worst expected goals against in the Matthews era (and worst ranking in half a decade). Our goaltending also fell off, and mixed with the defense to produce the worst goals against of the Matthews era. We abandoned the PK, and our defensive results and goals against on the PK were also the worst of the Matthews era.
Offensively, we scored a bit more at 5v5 while generating less, and scored a bit less on the PP while generating more. More should have been expected with the shifting of cap to forward, the influx of cheap depth, and a career year for our collective core.
In the cheap, deep depth area, I think he's done okay. Benoit was a nice 6D find, even if he did kind of luck into it after waiving him. I like the Holmberg re-signing and the McMann re-signing. Jones gave us a stretch of good goaltending as a third stringer. Above that cheap mark, we've had some problems though, and this is not historically unusual for Treliving, so that gives me some worry for this offseason and beyond when longer-term decisions are being made.
Samsonov didn't turn out well, but I don't disagree with Treliving's choice to re-sign him after the year he had had. If anything, one could question his decision to stand pat on goaltending throughout the year and into the playoffs. Domi turned out alright for 1 year at 3m, though he did come as advertised in terms of his defense, consistency, and discipline, and a lot of consideration had to be given to sheltering him in the lineup. I like that we kept Matthews and Nylander, but if people were enraged about the previous contracts, I don't know how Treliving isn't torn to pieces for ones that are unquestionably worse. And if Treliving is going to flip flop and gut this core, not only is that a stupid decision, but it should have been Nylander before one of our two best players; especially if this was the cost to keep him.
Bertuzzi was bad. 5.5m for a 44 point pace in a top 6 role. He's the most expensive non-core forward we've had in the past 5 years, and he'd rank 13th in P/GP. Flubbed so many chances and prime shots. Zero defense and completely one-dimensional. Klingberg was horrible. Bad and broken down before he came. Massively overpaid. Bad while here despite massive sheltering. Injured, and never replaced. Reaves was horrible, and given a stupidly long contract for his age. Trading Lafferty was bad, especially within the context of replacing him with a worse, older, slower player. Kampf was overpaid, and signed despite not being given a lineup that he could be successful in.
We spent 6 draft picks and a prospect at the deadline, and didn't really get anybody that moved the needle. Instead, we essentially just cloned Benoit twice and had a limited, one-dimensional bottom pairing defenseman on every pairing; killing our transition ability from the back-end.
And for those that only care about outcomes in the playoffs, that was also worse than last year. There's some context to be had, just like every other year, but it's also not a great sign that our xGF% was the worst it's been in years, and our 5v5 xGF% and overall goal differential was the worst it's ever been. Even with Woll being spectacular and handing us two wins. And unlike past years, against a team that whimpered out in the next round.
Overall a really disappointing year, and it feels like an unnecessary waste of this core's prime. I am concerned about Treliving destroying this team, with the organization showing signs of returning to the short-sighted mistakes of the past. How ironic that in the mid-2000s, we needed the core to waive their trade protections to protect the future. Now, we need the core to hold strong on their clauses to protect the future of this team. I am also concerned about Treliving making long-term UFA signings. The damage was limited to one destroyed year last season, because most significant signings were 1 year deals (funny how the "mercenary" narrative hasn't come up in the last year all of a sudden, but I digress..). Treliving hasn't shown a great history of mid-tier UFA signings or proper handling of stars, and that is what we're looking at this offseason. They're also the things that can most easily derail a team.
Fingers crossed that year 2 is better. None of the 3 in management positions inspire much confidence, both from their actions as Leafs and their history. I'm cautiously optimistic about Berube, though it largely feels like they just made Keefe a scapegoat after re-signing him, to protect their own jobs. We do have some more promising prospects coming in this second wave, and continued growth of our graduates this past year. That's something to look forward to.