Player Discussion Brad Marchand IV - CONFIRMED signed 8 years @ 6.125/yr

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Just when I thought the comparisons couldn't get any worse.

Terry O'Reilly? Seriously?

First, I hate comparing players from different eras. Guys from the 70's drank beer and smoked in between periods. Hmmmm...do you think maybe that contributed to them falling off after the age of 30?

Second, I'm going to say that Marchand and Taz are probably the two most dissimilar players you have come up with yet. O'Reilly was over 6 ft and 200 pounds, he routinely had 200+ PIM's per season, and he was one of the least skilled successful players in the NHL I have ever watched. He couldn't skate and he had OK hands. With 24 it was all about drive and effort.

Marchand on the other hand, has a great shot, is one of the better skaters in the league (balance and speed), and has very good hands. He rarely fights and has been (knock on wood) one of the more durable B's since he came into the league. I would have to look it up, but he's probably missed more games to suspensions than injury? You are going out of your way with these comparisons to paint a picture of a player that is nearing a steep decline in production based on his style of play. The only problem is...he doesn't play the style you are trying to say will contribute to his downfall. He's not O'Reilly or Lucic (another awful comparison), who are fighting and giving out 200+ hits a year (and receiving that many as well).

Just stop, because he's not the guy you are portraying him to be.

alex burrows at age 28... 35 goal scorer
at 29 and 30 still scoring 25 goals

at age 31 falls off the face of the earth and becomes a blackhole

you are great at telling me my comparables have no relevence at yet i dont see anyone giving me a list of comparables that are better and demonstrate the opposite

i have named many very prominant names that are the closest comparables we can find... and its not pretty. i take no joy pointing out reality. but this is something real teams spending real money must take into account

people can search my post history... i often comment on contracts when signed... i often predict buyouts... my success rate is at least 50%. im pretty good at predicting when contracts will turn into disasters. i dont let my personal bias about a player enter my thoughts.

i love marchand as a player today. i mention oreilly not as a comparable style player but because hes my favorite player ever. i mention lucic not because hes comparable style but because i love him but still predicted he will fall off his play bigtime

i invite you to pull this thread up in 4 years and rub it in my face and tell me im an idiot... ill be happy if im wrong... but ive been a fan for 43 years now... ate breathed lived hockey 4-5 hours everyday ( yes im that pathetic) and during that time i dont very many times ever get crud thrown back into my face 4 years later

im on record... signing marchand to 6 years will hurt a team for at least 3 of those years... im also on record backes production wont fall off during his contract. ill be here in 6 years if anyone wants to tell me to shutup then

 

[Roll 4 Lines]

I just want Brad signed in Boston ASAP.

The thought of him playing for another team makes me angry and sad.

He is a blast to watch on the ice. He and Bergy have such great chemistry. Also Brad is becoming a team leader ( I know it is hard for some of you to believe) and very vocal .

He has calmed down quite a bit with the antics but I hope he will always have a bit of that in him.

He was suspended in the middle of last season. He was suspended the year before that.

Going forward every suspension will increase in length.

It's concerning.

 

[jgatie]

I'm going to say zero percent.

We will never know, because nobody is going to admit it.

Yeah, I don't think this has anything to do with CJ. If he's underrated, it's because people still continue to see him as a "pest", and ignore all the other stuff he does as a player.

How can you ignore it though? Even the league wide coverage doesn't ignore it. Google "Marchand not just a pest" and there are dozens of articles from both local and national sources. It's almost to the point of being an overplayed story even the casual Bruins fan, never mind anyone on this board, should know about. I can buy it that some folks refuse to believe he's anything but a pest because of other reasons, but that is a willful ignoring of facts, not just an ignorance of facts.

 

[BruinDust]

alex burrows at age 28... 35 goal scorer
at 29 and 30 still scoring 25 goals

at age 31 falls off the face of the earth and becomes a blackhole

you are great at telling me my comparables have no relevence at yet i dont see anyone giving me a list of comparables that are better and demonstrate the opposite

i have named many very prominant names that are the closest comparables we can find... and its not pretty. i take no joy pointing out reality. but this is something real teams spending real money must take into account

people can search my post history... i often comment on contracts when signed... i often predict buyouts... my success rate is at least 50%. im pretty good at predicting when contracts will turn into disasters. i dont let my personal bias about a player enter my thoughts.

i love marchand as a player today. i mention oreilly not as a comparable style player but because hes my favorite player ever. i mention lucic not because hes comparable style but because i love him but still predicted he will fall off his play bigtime

i invite you to pull this thread up in 4 years and rub it in my face and tell me im an idiot... ill be happy if im wrong... but ive been a fan for 43 years now... ate breathed lived hockey 4-5 hours everyday ( yes im that pathetic) and during that time i dont very many times ever get crud thrown back into my face 4 years later

im on record... signing marchand to 6 years will hurt a team for at least 3 of those years... im also on record backes production wont fall off during his contract. ill be here in 6 years if anyone wants to tell me to shutup then

Which hasn't happened yet, and may not given how durable he's been.

Did you predict Shane Doan having close to a 30 goal season at almost 40.

How about Jagr still going strong in his mid-40s.

Yet we've seen guys go from coveted Top 6 forwards in their mid 20s to out of the league by 30 or 31.

Best off just stop with using player comparables to predict future performance. No two players are alike, too many variables to make a relevant argument.

 

[BruinDust]

We will never know, because nobody is going to admit it.



How can you ignore it though? Even the league wide coverage doesn't ignore it. Google "Marchand not just a pest" and there are dozens of articles from both local and national sources. It's almost to the point of being an overplayed story even the casual Bruins fan, never mind anyone on this board, should know about. I can buy it that some folks refuse to believe he's anything but a pest because of other reasons, but that is a willful ignoring of facts, not just an ignorance of facts.

Sorry bud but no one dislikes Marchand because he proves the Claude-haters wrong.

If they under-rate him they under-rate him, it's pretty subjective, but Claude-bashing has nothing to do with it. Your grasping at straws.

 

[DKH]

I wonder how much of this is due to Julien hate? Marchand flies in the face of so much Claude criticism: He's not a plugger; yet he was willing to start as a 4th liner and earn his way up. He was given a chance as a youngin' to prove himself, he did, and was rewarded. He's a two way beast while also being top 10 in scoring. He's a PIA with questionable off and on-ice antics, yet Claude obviously loves him.

Everything Claude haters hate about Claude is laid to waste with mentioning one name: Brad Marchand.

Claude loves every guy from that 2011 Cup team

Marchand has matured on and off the ice to me

Next 6 years he should average 30 goals a year 60 points

They get him at 6 years that's great - and under $7 M ditto

Give him 6/40 and the nmc for last 3 years so he can build his house in Newton and not worry he could be gone in year 4, 5, or 6. Trade off

 

[BMC]

?- how many seasons has Brad Marchand scored more than 60 points

A- 0

It could get real ugly is they pay him $7+M and he's scoring 25ish goals and God help him if he slew foots again

I'd suck it up and go 6/42 but I would try really hard to get away from 7 or 8 years

If he'd take 5 yrs I would even make the entire thing a NMC

I can see why this is complex - he's negotiationing off a year that is so far out of his norm

This is my concern. I wish there was more than one year left before he becomes UFA, then the Bruins could wait to see if this past season was the beginning of a trend or just a career high. Honestly I think it was a career high. He hasn't ever even hinted at being able to put up 30-35 goals on a regular basis. IIRC he's never scored more than 25 in a single season.

 

[Ladyfan]

This board underrates Brad Marchand.

BIG time.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Which hasn't happened yet, and may not given how durable he's been.

Did you predict Shane Doan having close to a 30 goal season at almost 40.

How about Jagr still going strong in his mid-40s.

Yet we've seen guys go from coveted Top 6 forwards in their mid 20s to out of the league by 30 or 31.

Best off just stop with using player comparables to predict future performance. No two players are alike, too many variables to make a relevant argument.

yes I predicted both doan and jagrs success.. ive made several posts in this argument where I point out big guys with good hands have success while into their late 30s... like doan

and superstars like jarg are able to keep going for as long as their love for the game continues

so yes I predict backes who is a bit like doan... only better defensively will keep going...

and when jagr wasn't giving a damn... like his last days in pittsburg... his time in Washington... and some of his time in ny... it wasn't clear that he would want to stick around... in fact he went home for awhile...

but never once have I ever ever said that big guys with good hands are a danger to sign... or that hall of fame talents are a danger to sign

thanks for letting me say this for the 4th or 5th time in this tread. I'm mostly saying that guys that are undersized and make their room by being agitators don't do well after 31-32 roughly

that guys like Eriksson who are very good 2 way non physical euros don't do well after 30-31 years roughly

that bulls in a china shop like lucic have traditionally broken down long before they ever get to 30 {maybe lucic will be the exception to my rules?}

so yes... in face your post seems to suggest you haven't been reading anything ive been saying, but thanks for letting me say it again

 

[BruinDust]

yes I predicted both doan and jagrs success.. ive made several posts in this argument where I point out big guys with good hands have success while into their late 30s... like doan

and superstars like jarg are able to keep going for as long as their love for the game continues

so yes I predict backes who is a bit like doan... only better defensively will keep going...

and when jagr wasn't giving a damn... like his last days in pittsburg... his time in Washington... and some of his time in ny... it wasn't clear that he would want to stick around... in fact he went home for awhile...

but never once have I ever ever said that big guys with good hands are a danger to sign... or that hall of fame talents are a danger to sign

thanks for letting me say this for the 4th or 5th time in this tread. I'm mostly saying that guys that are undersized and make their room by being agitators don't do well after 31-32 roughly

that guys like Eriksson who are very good 2 way non physical euros don't do well after 30-31 years roughly

that bulls in a china shop like lucic have traditionally broken down long before they ever get to 30 {maybe lucic will be the exception to my rules?}

so yes... in face your post seems to suggest you haven't been reading anything ive been saying, but thanks for letting me say it again

I've been reading your posts and let me say again you need to stop with predicting future outcomes based on previous similar players.

If you predicted Doan scoring nearly 30 goals pushing 40 years old or Jagr still playing at a reasonably high-level at 44 do you have next weeks lottery numbers I could borrow?

 

[GloryDaze4877]

alex burrows at age 28... 35 goal scorer
at 29 and 30 still scoring 25 goals

at age 31 falls off the face of the earth and becomes a blackhole

you are great at telling me my comparables have no relevence at yet i dont see anyone giving me a list of comparables that are better and demonstrate the opposite

i have named many very prominant names that are the closest comparables we can find... and its not pretty. i take no joy pointing out reality. but this is something real teams spending real money must take into account

people can search my post history... i often comment on contracts when signed... i often predict buyouts... my success rate is at least 50%. im pretty good at predicting when contracts will turn into disasters. i dont let my personal bias about a player enter my thoughts.

i love marchand as a player today. i mention oreilly not as a comparable style player but because hes my favorite player ever. i mention lucic not because hes comparable style but because i love him but still predicted he will fall off his play bigtime

i invite you to pull this thread up in 4 years and rub it in my face and tell me im an idiot... ill be happy if im wrong... but ive been a fan for 43 years now... ate breathed lived hockey 4-5 hours everyday ( yes im that pathetic) and during that time i dont very many times ever get crud thrown back into my face 4 years later

im on record... signing marchand to 6 years will hurt a team for at least 3 of those years... im also on record backes production wont fall off during his contract. ill be here in 6 years if anyone wants to tell me to shutup then

I try to stay away from "comparables". I know some people feel more comfortable if they can categorize something, but what's the point?

I could care less about your "track record" and coming back 5 years from now to tell you that you were wrong. What I am telling you, right now, is that the category you are trying to put Marchand in, is incorrect. He's not a "heavy" and he's not a pure agitator in the class of the guys you are comparing him to.

I completely disagree that he will break down and be a burden to the team in three years. I would be ecstatic if he agreed to a 6 year/$6m per contract, and think he will continue to be productive throughout the life of a deal like that. I will go a step further and say that Marchand is far less likely to be a burden than a guy like Backes (whom I like).

 

[GloryDaze4877]

yes I predicted both doan and jagrs success.. ive made several posts in this argument where I point out big guys with good hands have success while into their late 30s... like doan

and superstars like jarg are able to keep going for as long as their love for the game continues

so yes I predict backes who is a bit like doan... only better defensively will keep going...

and when jagr wasn't giving a damn... like his last days in pittsburg... his time in Washington... and some of his time in ny... it wasn't clear that he would want to stick around... in fact he went home for awhile...

but never once have I ever ever said that big guys with good hands are a danger to sign... or that hall of fame talents are a danger to sign

thanks for letting me say this for the 4th or 5th time in this tread. I'm mostly saying that guys that are undersized and make their room by being agitators don't do well after 31-32 roughly

that guys like Eriksson who are very good 2 way non physical euros don't do well after 30-31 years roughly

that bulls in a china shop like lucic have traditionally broken down long before they ever get to 30 {maybe lucic will be the exception to my rules?}

so yes... in face your post seems to suggest you haven't been reading anything ive been saying, but thanks for letting me say it again

Your posts are typically novellas, so you may have to excuse some people if they miss some of what you are saying.

I think we get it, but you can say 100 times you think Marchand is not worth a long term contract, that doesn't mean you are correct.

 

[Roll 4 Lines]

I'm reading posts such as:

What's the hold up?
Sign him asap.
If he takes anything less than the Krejci extension (6 years, 7.25 per) I'd be shocked. Matter of fact I'd give him that deal in a heartbeat.
He's comparable to Pat Verbeek.
He could end up being the highest paid LW not named Ovechkin.
He's so important to the team, a clutch player.
Give him the nmc if you have to.
Has a great shot, one of the better skaters in the league, and one of the most durable B's.
He's worn an A in the past.

Then I read that this board under rates him big time.

I'm so confused!

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Your posts are typically novellas, so you may have to excuse some people if they miss some of what you are saying.

I think we get it, but you can say 100 times you think Marchand is not worth a long term contract, that doesn't mean you are correct.

and I sure as hell hope I'm not correct... I absolutely hate when my favorite players career drops off.

other people here are saying marchand is underrated... I'm not sure I see that myself. I think most of the posts ive seen are giving him credit to be a 37 goal scorer. I'm not sure dkh was being serious but he posted marchand might score 30 for the next 6 years I think... sometimes I'm not sure dkh is always 100% serious when he says stuff like that but I love reading his posts and hes my favorite poster.

I think ive been clear that marchand is one of my very favorite players of all time. I love his chemistry with Bergeron. I consider Bergeron/marchand to be one of the top 5 duos in the nhl. I don't think I underrate marchand.

ive seen it suggested that I don't understand the type of player marchand is. maybe I'm not expressing myself well. what I mean when I catagorize marchand is that I believe he needs to agitate to be successful. I think he needs to drive the other team batty. I think he needs to draw penalties. I think he needs to make guys chase him around trying to kill him.

I think marchand is more of an opportunist then a pure skill guy. I don't think marchands skill level is superior enough that he can skate against guys who are maintaining their formation... and get by them. I don't think hes big enough to overpower them. I don't think hes fast enough to blow by them. I don't think hes skilled enough to dazzle them.

he did score 37 this year... and should have scored 40... but this was one season. alexander burrow scored 33 one season. did it at the same age. there were a lot of posters on this forum who called burrow one of the best values in the nhl. they said burrows was an untouchable. they said burrows was a core part of vancouvers cup contending team and had to be signed long term

when Callahan was leaving ny... they were saying the same thing... they were telling us Callahan was as good as Bergeron... we all remember those posts.

la fans told us dustin brown was a god... and worth the money when his contract was signed.

when these guys are 28-29 its always the same... they are having career years and their fan base calls them gods and defends their signing... screams that these guys are irreplaceable...

that's where I'm trying to make the comparison... that's why I'm trying to throw up as many comparables as I can. because history does repeat itself. and try as I might, I cant find any good examples where I'm wrong about this.

I'm told to stay away from comparables... but if I could find any comparables that are good, id use them too.

a poster here told me verbeek compares to marchand... but does he? verbeek was a 80-90 point guy... a 4 time 40 goal scorer... a 200-250 penalty min guy. I doubt many people would say marchand had that type of talent.

talent does age well... the talent to excel does age well. but opportunity guys who get by on hard work and hustle don't age well. size ages well, but speed doesn't age well

at age 30-31 almost everyone slows down. guys who get by on speed suffer more than guys who get buy on size.

someone like gordie howe could play forever because he got by on power and skill and great hands

I said before... injuries are a modifier... a players love for the game is a modifier. guys need to want it bad to keep going because its harder to recover from nagging injuries as the age gets higher.

but in general... the guys who make it to 35 as good players are either guys that are sure fire hall of fame talents... or guys who are much bigger than average... and occasionally guys who have sniper hands can make it too.

theres not a lot of other guys after the age of 35 that continue to succeed... and a huge number that fall off long before they reach 35

anyhow... I have repeated myself quite a few times now. I wish I could have been more conceise. I am not happy with my position. I don't want to be the guy predicting doom for one of my favorite players. I'm not going to comment further in this thread. I wish marchand nothing but the best. if he signs here... as a fan ill be happy but as a cap guy I will be deeply concerned.

go bruins go

 

[BMC]

I'm reading posts such as:

What's the hold up?
Sign him asap.
If he takes anything less than the Krejci extension (6 years, 7.25 per) I'd be shocked. Matter of fact I'd give him that deal in a heartbeat.
He's comparable to Pat Verbeek.
He could end up being the highest paid LW not named Ovechkin.
He's so important to the team, a clutch player.
Give him the nmc if you have to.
Has a great shot, one of the better skaters in the league, and one of the most durable B's.
He's worn an A in the past.

Then I read that this board under rates him big time.

I'm so confused!

Our work here is done then

 

[Roll 4 Lines]

Our work here is done then

Bravo, Beems!

I'm confused, but at least I'm amused!

 

[Seidenbergy]

He hasn't ever even hinted at being able to put up 30-35 goals on a regular basis. IIRC he's never scored more than 25 in a single season.

He had 28 in 2011-2012.

 

[Seidenbergy]

I think marchand is more of an opportunist then a pure skill guy. I don't think marchands skill level is superior enough that he can skate against guys who are maintaining their formation... and get by them. I don't think hes big enough to overpower them. I don't think hes fast enough to blow by them. I don't think hes skilled enough to dazzle them.

The fact that he scores so many shorties and gets pretty much no power play time blows this argument out of the water IMO.

 

[DKH]

I'm reading posts such as:

What's the hold up?
Sign him asap.
If he takes anything less than the Krejci extension (6 years, 7.25 per) I'd be shocked. Matter of fact I'd give him that deal in a heartbeat.
He's comparable to Pat Verbeek.
He could end up being the highest paid LW not named Ovechkin.
He's so important to the team, a clutch player.
Give him the nmc if you have to.
Has a great shot, one of the better skaters in the league, and one of the most durable B's.
He's worn an A in the past.

Then I read that this board under rates him big time.

I'm so confused!

Yes it's crazy. The same people who wanted him gone for his fake dive against Detroit now want to give him a blank check

I just hope whatever he gets his metrics don't imitate Johnny Boychuks

 

[GloryDaze4877]

The fact that he scores so many shorties and gets pretty much no power play time blows this argument out of the water IMO.

This is where I am as well. I don't think it's accurate at all to say that Marchand is not a "skill guy". I don't want to speak for Mike, but I think this is what he was pointing to when he said this board "underrates" Marchand?

 

[ReggieMoto]

I don't think it's accurate at all to say that Marchand is not a "skill guy".

It's not. He is absolutely a skill guy. I think this point is what is so difficult to square with the point about him being a pest, which he absolutely has been. Most pests aren't as skilled as he is; most skill players aren't the pest that he is.

Shaw's play reminds me of Marchand.

 

[tburns21]

This is my concern. I wish there was more than one year left before he becomes UFA, then the Bruins could wait to see if this past season was the beginning of a trend or just a career high. Honestly I think it was a career high. He hasn't ever even hinted at being able to put up 30-35 goals on a regular basis. IIRC he's never scored more than 25 in a single season.

now sure he's avg is around 25-28 goals.... which is good this day in age.... try putting the guy on the 1st unit PP and see how many goals he can put up. say he does 25 Es, then 4 SH and 6PP he's now at 35 again.... pretty solid for 6.5-7M i'd say.

 

[Jorah Marshmont]

He had 28 in 2011-2012.

And 18 in 45 GP in 12-13 (33 goal pace)

 

[alg363636]

Obviously none of us know what he is going to score in the future. However, when you compare his season last year to his previous seasons, none of the metrics point it being a fluke season.

His overall shooting percentage is 15.0. Last season he posted a 14.8 - which is completely in his norm. In fact, if we're looking at "fluke season" we would be looking at 2012-2013 when he posted a 19.8 shooting percentage and posted 18 goals in 45 games however that still adjusts to 35 goals which is less than he scored last season.

Two things changed last season for Brad - shot attempts and TOI. Before last season, he had never put more than 180 shots on goal in a season - or 2.34 shots per game. He also averages 16:26 TOI per game for his career. Last year he put 250 shots on goal and averaged 18:36 TOI per game.

Basically, everything points to Brad's increase in goals being given more time on ice and putting more shots on goal. This isn't a Nick Foligno situation. Maybe he'll never his over 30 goals again, who knows - I don't. But advanced stats favor that this wasn't a complete fluke.

 

[DKH]

BIG time.

Did you ALWAyS feel that way

No Bruins Town Hall. The backlash on hot dogs was so bad they scratched it