You're a good poster and this is a good post. Don't like the direct comparisons to Brad though Brad is TINY hes not a large man the other guys mentioned are average-above average in size. More weight to carry around and more likely to slow down with age.
Pat Verbeek is the best comparison. Marchand is about 4 years younger than Verbeek was when he slowed down when he went to Dallas and became more of a defensive specialist instead of a talented 2 way guy. Brad should have 5-6 years left as a good 2 way forward and that will be followed with 2-3 years as a defensive shutdown specialist. Marchand is better than Verbeek too.
If he has no major injuries and maintains the desire to continue to play Marchand is a near virtual lock to have the skill set and skating to be able to remain in the NHL until/after his 40th birthday or come damn close. Beleskey or Krejci are the guys on the team who its hard to project being very good late 30s IMO.
verbeek never crossed my mind... good job... i wonder how many other historical examples there are
i know guys can remain superstar until 40 if they were superstars to begin with. so talent doesnt go away as long as desire and health remain
i know the big guys like guerin, shanahan, knuble, leclair, tocchet, roberts and that type of bigger body guy with good hands remains effective to 35- 36 traditionally and most of these guys still are scoring 30 goals at that age... which is why the backes deal doesnt scare me
i know guys who run people over as part of their everygame style... break down in their mid 20s usually. there hasnt been alot of guys that compare to lucic... lindros and neely jump quickly to mind. lucic has already outlasted them due to the rule changes... but signing lucic terrified me cause historically these older guys cant go around hitting everyone and without that physical intimidation i think lucic becomes a 3rd liner.
history is full of good little 2 way euros... but not many stay effective after 30. i think loui eriksson compares to a jere lehtiner or a esa tikkanen somewhat... pj axelsson can be a comparable...
the defensive game of these guys isnt enough to keep them in the nhl once they lose a step and their offense dissapears.
a truely elite offensive dynamo like zetterberg or federov or datsyuk can continue to score but this next level of talent loses its edge
mostly just true superstars... or bigger body guys... avoid the drop off after 30-31 or so. guys who play great defense hang on another couple years... guys with grit...
but very few defense grit guys are worth 6-7 mill... hence my mentioning callahan and dustin brown as two prime examples of guys that are killing their teams cap only 2-3 years after signing