Prospect Info: Brad Lambert, 30th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[kylbaz]

The interfering father is more than rumour. Or, if it is imaginary then there is another problem leading to him changing teams.

The drop in production from D-1 to D is the biggest red flag and it is factual. When was the last time an impact player did that without good contextual explanation, like health?

This isn't a matter of a player slipping through the cracks on draft day, like Connor. It is a player whose rating was dropping like a stone because of his play.

Again, this is a 30 overall pick which has a very low chance of being an impact. If he can may it he can be a star. It's easily worth the gamble. Watch his highlights and tell me you don't see a highly skilled player. He was possibly going top 3 in the draft had he continued his progression. Red flag sure, but we wouldn't have been able to get him at 14 even if he didn't regress. The skill and talent are there you hope he can improve.

 

[Daximus]

31 teams stayed away from him in the Draft .
We took him as he is talented but has he got possibly some of Dads genetics and we will never get him in the correct path.
We are taking that gamble.

Close to 31 teams. A few didn't have any picks before 30.

 

[Daximus]

This was not a draft class strong at the top but, IMO, it was deep. Ehlers never had anything like Lambert's 'issues'. Big difference - Ehlers draft year, 63 gms, 49 G, 104 pts. Can't compare directly to D-1 because Ehlers played in Europe that year. Lambert played both years in Liiga, D-1 46 gms, 15 pts, draft year, 49 gms, 10 pts. That drop off in a year where we usually see a big increase is a huge red flag to me.

Ehlers was always a good passer. The problem appeared to be that he would hold on to the puck too long looking for the perfect pass or the perfect shot. Lambert may be doing the same thing but it sounds more like just trying to do it all himself. That can be coached out of him, if he is willing to be coached.

I don't like the gamble. I think the risk is just too high in a situation where we can't afford risk. The saying is that you should never bet money you can't afford to lose. Jets can't afford to lose 1st rd picks.

Tough comparable. Its a hell of a lot easier to score in the Q than it is to score in Liiga.

Again, this is a 30 overall pick which has a very low chance of being an impact. If he can may it he can be a star. It's easily worth the gamble. Watch his highlights and tell me you don't see a highly skilled player. He was possibly going top 3 in the draft had he continued his progression. Red flag sure, but we wouldn't have been able to get him at 14 even if he didn't regress. The skill and talent are there you hope he can improve.

I'm pretty certain that there is an NHL player in him. Even if he doesn't put it all together like many thought I think you still have a solid speedy energy bottom 6er who can produce at a mediocre clip. That's not the worst kind of player you can get at 30 oa.

 

[DRW204]

Reading through this, it seems to me that we've drafted the Finnish Evander Kane..

Evander Kane is a good player....

 

[Finnflash]

So rubber meet road.

All the people giving opinions. What would be a success next year for him if he plays in Seattle or Winnipeg (moose).

I think if he plays for Seattle and is amongst the top point getters in the Whl that would be a great sign.

If he plays for the Moose again if he is top two on the team I think it would a more than great sign.

If he is engaged in both ends of the ice and creates chances and has points that’s great.

Not sure about the analytics as I’m not up on them but If someone could share what good analytics would look like (as a good sign) for both whl and Ahl that would be helpful

 

[JetsFan815]

He’s much better than his stats line suggests. He takes all the tough defensive assignments. I believe he has more untapped offensive potential than he has been given opportunity to show as there are much higher offensively skilled defensemen on his team.

Sure but he is barely .5 PPG. Generally that's not the profile of a sure-fire top-4 d-men, most of those type of players are closer to .7-.8 PPG in their draft year and even then there is no guarantee. Either way I don't see him as any "safer" than Lambert so I don't understand the consternation about why we didn't draft him. If we want a "safe" choice... probably should be Howard.

 

[GNP]

I don't know too much about Lambert, as I don't follow his hockey career, at the level he plays at right now. By reading all the posts, there is "a lot" of conflicting opinions about him, some good, and some bad.

He may end up being the kind of player Burmistrov was ( great skater) or Petan was ( great scorer) but both never made it at the NHL level. Most great players in the NHL,have 2 distinct things in common, in that their great skaters, and great stickhandlers with the puck.

The next level is developing his hockey IQ where he can become a good playmaker, or scorer, and I'm not sure that can be coached, as I think it's innate, and comes natural for some players. I hope Lambert works out for the Jets, and at pick # 30, it may be well worth the chance. We will see in the long run.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Big thing for him is to get to a team where his talents can be utilized. He was great at the World Juniors and if that had continued we wouldn't be talking about him because he would have been drafted much higher.

Whatever they decide for next season whether that is to to Seattle or play in the AHL, I think it will do him a world of good. My personal choice is to Seattle and play top minutes there and put up a ton of points playing against your peers. Head to the World Juniors and dominate it. Show everyone they made a big mistake.

My worry about him is the same thing happening to him that happened to Vesa. Deciding that what the Jets want him to do isn't "good" for him and to go back to Finland and play there for a year.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

So rubber meet road.

All the people giving opinions. What would be a success next year for him if he plays in Seattle or Winnipeg (moose).

I think if he plays for Seattle and is amongst the top point getters in the Whl that would be a great sign.

If he plays for the Moose again if he is top two on the team I think it would a more than great sign.

If he is engaged in both ends of the ice and creates chances and has points that’s great.

Not sure about the analytics as I’m not up on them but If someone could share what good analytics would look like (as a good sign) for both whl and Ahl that would be helpful

Petan was amongst the top point getters in the WHL. How did that work out? I wouldn't put Lambert in Seattle. He's played against men, putting him up against kids who for the most part will never see a pro career may do wonders for his self-confidence but I don't think it will make him a better player. There are plenty of weak opponents in junior hockey and that can develop bad habits in players with superior skating and puck handling skills. Does anyone do a QoC analysis at the junior level to see how much the "top prospects" benefit from weak teams and weak individuals?

I would put him on the Moose and live with the growing pains. This is where the team has the most say in his development. You want to be a draft and develop team, Jets? Every team can draft. Show that you can develop.

 

[John Agar]

Petan was amongst the top point getters in the WHL. How did that work out? I wouldn't put Lambert in Seattle. He's played against men, putting him up against kids who for the most part will never see a pro career may do wonders for his self-confidence but I don't think it will make him a better player. There are plenty of weak opponents in junior hockey and that can develop bad habits in players with superior skating and puck handling skills. Does anyone do a QoC analysis at the junior level to see how much the "top prospects" benefit from weak teams and weak individuals?

I would put him on the Moose and live with the growing pains. This is where the team has the most say in his development. You want to be a draft and develop team, Jets? Every team can draft. Show that you can develop.

Re: bolded...

I agree with this...

 

[Finnflash]

Petan was amongst the top point getters in the WHL. How did that work out? I wouldn't put Lambert in Seattle. He's played against men, putting him up against kids who for the most part will never see a pro career may do wonders for his self-confidence but I don't think it will make him a better player. There are plenty of weak opponents in junior hockey and that can develop bad habits in players with superior skating and puck handling skills. Does anyone do a QoC analysis at the junior level to see how much the "top prospects" benefit from weak teams and weak individuals?

I would put him on the Moose and live with the growing pains. This is where the team has the most say in his development. You want to be a draft and develop team, Jets? Every team can draft. Show that you can develop.

I would agree moose probably is the better option but what are those developmental metrics that we would look for in rhe draft plus one year while playing on the moose

 

[garret9]

His production has regressed during two last seasons in JYP and it went also perfectly on the same level in JYP as well as in Pelicans. I don’t care what all those useless advanced stats say, as the end result is the only thing that matters in hockey. Advanced stats are really useful only when estimating team success in the bigger picture. They tell practically nothing about individuals and their individual meaning for the team success.

I have watched Lambert play in most of his games for the last two seasons and the eye test tells me very clearly that the only thing that he is really good at is transition, which is pretty obvious with his skating and hands. But otherwise he has been a pretty much useless player in Liiga. More a burden to his linemates and his teams than being really helpful in anything else than transition. The thing you call the lack of luck, I call straightforwardly the lack of skill.

Useless to blame Pelicans or their coach for causing him to play worse in transition when he played there. It just perfectly falls on himself again. I saw him play there too and could tell, that he just lacked the fire and energy more than in the beginning of the season. He looked just tired generally after a long season and didn’t skate at the same pace as he did in the beginning of the season. Happens often to young players, so nothing strange in it this time either.

Also what seems to be neglected in this Pelicans discussion, is that Pelicans was generally a much better team last season than JYP, and they got even into the Liiga playoffs. They had better players in general than JYP, so an already tired Lambert just couldn’t take a role in the team that would allow him to use his strengths even as well as he did in JYP - and I can assure you, he wasn’t really good as a player in JYP either. In neither of his season’s there.

You can be right (or wrong) about Lambert, but you are straight up 100% wrong about your baseless assumptions on advanced stats here.

Petan was amongst the top point getters in the WHL. How did that work out? I wouldn't put Lambert in Seattle. He's played against men, putting him up against kids who for the most part will never see a pro career may do wonders for his self-confidence but I don't think it will make him a better player. There are plenty of weak opponents in junior hockey and that can develop bad habits in players with superior skating and puck handling skills. Does anyone do a QoC analysis at the junior level to see how much the "top prospects" benefit from weak teams and weak individuals?

I would put him on the Moose and live with the growing pains. This is where the team has the most say in his development. You want to be a draft and develop team, Jets? Every team can draft. Show that you can develop.

Over his career he's been a + Corsi player and even xGoal player. Ironically a lot better performance then quite a few Jets.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

I'd prefer he play for the Moose next year. I would be glad to take in a few Moose games to see him play.

Regardless of where he plays, AHL or WHL, I think it's important he experiences the smaller ice surface.

 

[lomiller1]

I don't like the gamble. I don't like that we passed on some promising RHD that we need very badly to take him.

But he is ours now and I will be cheering for him. Hope his troubles were ALL dad caused. Though I am cheering for him, I remain skeptical of the pick until he justifies it.

At least he is a RHS who can skate.

I see those "promising RHD" as a much bigger gamble. The chances of any of them being a top pair D-man is almost zero. If they turn into a middle pair D-man that would be a good result, but it's hardly guaranteed. Would you rather have a 20% chance of a 3/4 D-man or a a 20% chance of a 70 point Center.

 

[lomiller1]

Now that I've had a chance to look more closely, I see more that reminds me of early Ehlers than early Burmi. Fast as lightning, quick in transition, skates through defences and... holds on to the puck till he is out of good options. People forget how much flak Ehlers took in his first few years here for his his individualistic play, but now he is a star. That is what development is all about.

In Ehlers case is mostly wasn't true, just people parroting elements of PM excuses for playing scrubs over an obviously superior young player.

 

[lomiller1]

Did you see Pesce as top pair potential when he was taken in the 3rd rd? How about Slavin, taken in the 4th?

By that logic taking a RHD early isn't necessary because any D-man taken anywhere in the draft could become a top pair D. It's not about what's theoretically possible, it's about reasonable expectation and it's not reasonable to expect any of the players available at 30 to be top pair defenders.

 

[ps241]

Evander Kane is a good player....

Kane is a physical specimen and he has a much better shot. Skating wise Lambert might be even better than Kane. Kane had great work ethic though. He might have been a head case, and an ass with his teammates, but he was blue collar hard working player.

Petan was amongst the top point getters in the WHL. How did that work out? I wouldn't put Lambert in Seattle. He's played against men, putting him up against kids who for the most part will never see a pro career may do wonders for his self-confidence but I don't think it will make him a better player. There are plenty of weak opponents in junior hockey and that can develop bad habits in players with superior skating and puck handling skills. Does anyone do a QoC analysis at the junior level to see how much the "top prospects" benefit from weak teams and weak individuals?

I would put him on the Moose and live with the growing pains. This is where the team has the most say in his development. You want to be a draft and develop team, Jets? Every team can draft. Show that you can develop.

I don’t think Brad will necessarily dominate in the CHL and I think he needs one or two season against players his age. Scheifele needed two full seasons in Barrie after his draft, Morrissey needed two full seasons in juniors and they were both higher draft picks than Lambert. Brad shit the bed against men last season so let’s mix it up. 95% of all 18 year olds go back to junior after they are drafted. There is zero % chance Lambert is too good for the WHL yet. Let him prove he can dominate at that level then they can promote him.

This kid is a long shot. He is coming off a terrible season and needs to change things up IMO.

 

[kylbaz]

Tough comparable. Its a hell of a lot easier to score in the Q than it is to score in Liiga.



I'm pretty certain that there is an NHL player in him. Even if he doesn't put it all together like many thought I think you still have a solid speedy energy bottom 6er who can produce at a mediocre clip. That's not the worst kind of player you can get at 30 oa.

I agree as well. His skill set seems too good to not turn into something.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Kane is a physical specimen and he has a much better shot. Skating wise Lambert might be even better than Kane. Kane had great work ethic though. He might have been a head case, and an ass with his teammates, but he was blue collar hard working player.




I don’t think Brad will necessarily dominate in the CHL and I think he needs one or two season against players his age. Scheifele needed two full seasons in Barrie after his draft, Morrissey needed two full seasons in juniors and they were both higher draft picks than Lambert. Brad shit the bed against men last season so let’s mix it up. 95% of all 18 year olds go back to junior after they are drafted. There is zero % chance Lambert is too good for the WHL yet. Let him prove he can dominate at that level then they can promote him.

This kid is a long shot. He is coming off a terrible season and needs to change things up IMO.

We had no choice with He Who Shall Not Be Named because he was bound by the NHL-CHL agreement. WHL is a step back for Lambert. Name another player who was demoted to a lesser league after being drafted then gone on to excel in the NHL.

 

[Daximus]

We had no choice with He Who Shall Not Be Named because he was bound by the NHL-CHL agreement. WHL is a step back for Lambert. Name another player who was demoted to a lesser league after being drafted then gone on to excel in the NHL.

Kucherov had some time in the KHL before going to the Q and then the A for half a season before making the show. Burakovsky went from Allsvensken to the OHL. It's rare but its not unheard of.

 

[jimsabo21]

I wanted Nazar at 14. Unfortunately, he was gone at 13. Given that, I am not too unhappy with McGroarty, but I would have taken Ohgren if it was left to me.

At 30 Chesley seems to come up pretty often here and was the next one on my list taken, but I like Luneau better myself. I would have taken the pair at 30 & 55 if possible.

Lambert, I simply would not have drafted. I don't mean I would not take him, no matter what. Just that I had no interest in him. I assume someone, somewhere, would have taken him long before he appeared on my radar screen.

I had interest in Lambert and am ecstatic the Jets selected him. We can all 'fan' in our own way.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

The Scouching guy who is pretty plugged in said there is not one Finnish scout he talked to that likes Lambert as a prospect. Idk that seems pretty telling to me.

Idk I don't like taking guys who fall flat in their draft years but what do I know. A swing for the fences, I hope it doesn't come up short.

He also had Lambert in his top tier with only Wright and Cooley.

Especially with it being our 2nd pick and late, I like that we took a big swing.

I also don't really care what people in Finland have to say about him. We've got a thread right now whining about too many Americans on the team - how do you think Finnish people like having a guy named Lambert on their national team? I doubt he would have been even considered if he wasn't hands down the best player they had.

Definitely some flaws in his game, and maybe they'll never be worked out, like poor shot selection sometimes and a tendency to circle around looking for a play that he can't quite find. Reminds me a lot of Ehlers that way, though.

 

[Ippenator]

He also had Lambert in his top tier with only Wright and Cooley.

Especially with it being our 2nd pick and late, I like that we took a big swing.

I also don't really care what people in Finland have to say about him. We've got a thread right now whining about too many Americans on the team - how do you think Finnish people like having a guy named Lambert on their national team? I doubt he would have been even considered if he wasn't hands down the best player they had.

Definitely some flaws in his game, and maybe they'll never be worked out, like poor shot selection sometimes and a tendency to circle around looking for a play that he can't quite find. Reminds me a lot of Ehlers that way, though.

I don’t think the approach by the Finnish posters here has anything to do with Lambert being half Canadian. We have Barkov (Russian origin) who every Finn adores, and we have half of our soccer national team having genetic inheritence from other countries, and the team is very popular in Finland right now.

Did it occur to you that we Finns tend to watch a lot of Liiga and we have just been seeing there how Lambert has been playing piss poor and regressing for the past two seasons? Would be in fact strange to be enthusiastic and praising a player playing such bad hockey as he has been playing.

 

[Ippenator]

You can be right (or wrong) about Lambert, but you are straight up 100% wrong about your baseless assumptions on advanced stats here.

I understand you and feel for you. I would say the same if I was getting my bread and butter through selling advanced stats to people that want to desperately believe in them. Thank God I
have other income sources than selling snake oil though.

 

[Jukurit]

Some relevant stats for Lambert's drop in production (from first season to second season in Liiga):
On-ice shooting percenage dropped from 10% to 5%
Individual shooting percentage dropped from 9% to 4.4%

I don't think Lambert "regressed" this past season and his drop in production can explained by bad luck.