Prospect Info: Brad Lambert, 30th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[ps241]

We had no choice with He Who Shall Not Be Named because he was bound by the NHL-CHL agreement. WHL is a step back for Lambert. Name another player who was demoted to a lesser league after being drafted then gone on to excel in the NHL.

I believe high end offensive prospects need to dominate in a league before being promoted when they are Lambert’s age. Last two seasons he put up 15 then 10 points and that is not developing his scoring skills. Based on the raw scoring numbers and some bad luck he was possibly in the wrong league last season , and maybe even the year before.

I do not believe he is developed enough for the AHL yet and I am not sold he will dominate in juniors. Yes he is a great skater but his shooting and play making are not that good yet. The kid needs at least one season of practice getting allot of points. He might be like Scheif where he still needs two full seasons of juniors to “develop his offence”

He needs to succeed to get back his shattered confidence. He’s a 30th OA pick that is 18 he is not too good for the CHL yet at least IMO.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

I understand you and feel for you. I would say the same if I was getting my bread and butter through selling advanced stats to people that want to desperately believe in them. Thank God I
have other income sources than selling snake oil though.

Just fyi garret has been employed by the NHL in some capacity for his "snake oil" for the past several years iirc, kinda funny you dismiss that as an income source lol

 

[Jimmyjets]

I would agree moose probably is the better option but what are those developmental metrics that we would look for in rhe draft plus one year while playing on the moose

For developmental milestones I'm looking for him to put up over 1.75 PPG if he plays in the WHL or about 0.7 PPG in the AHL.

Once someone gets to near a PPG in the AHL then they are ready for a callup to the NHL IMO. There aren't very many D+1 players that are allowed to play in the AHL as most have to return to the CHL, continue their college career in the NCAA or stay in Europe for the next season. Europe isn't a good option for Lambert IMO. In fact with most prospects that have decided to stay in Europe the extra year I feel like it has slowed/hurt their development (Vesalainen, Heinola) With COVID there have been a few more D+1 players allowed in the AHL as their CHL team didn't operate.

For the Jets we can look at Cole Perfetti as a benchmark. He put up 111 points in 61 games in his draft year, then 26 points in 32 games in the AHL in his D+1 (0.8125 PPG). Then in his D+2 he was 15 points in 17 games and then got called up.

Jack Roslovic might be another developmental path that we could use as a benchmark as in his D+1 season he went to the NCAA but it didn't work out so he played in the AHL for his D+2 (48 points in 65 games or 0.74 PPG) then the following year in his D+3 he scored 35 points in 32 games and then got called up.

In my view the sooner he comes to North America the better. As he's already playing against men convincing him to play against kids in the CHL may be tough but he could go there and just blow the doors off making everyone look foolish for passing on him. Then go to the AHL the next year and play 30-40 games, start scoring at a PPG clip and then could be a mid to late season addition to the Jets for what may be the last run with the current core as then Scheif, Helle, etc are UFAs. Being able to make his NHL debut 2 years from now would be great IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm glad it doesn't give you a headache... but ltir is not that simple...
from murats article at the time of the trade:
"With Little’s contract off the books, Winnipeg can avoid going into long-term injured reserve (LTIR) next season. The Jets will be able to build cap space throughout the year by staying below the cap maximum. This might not sound like much but it’s huge in terms of Winnipeg’s flexibility.

Recall that cap space prorates: A little bit of space saved early in the season turns into a lot on deadline day. This is how the Jets could afford Stastny in 2018 and hayes in 2019"

also don't have to worry about being cap compliant with little's contract day 1 of the season, we had to waive frenchie 2 years ago because toninato got injured and we wouldn't have been able to be compliant with out that...

Sure, I know all of that. Call it a headache if you wish. It is mostly minor.
The biggest thing is the ability to accumulate cap space for the TD. Being in LTIR relieves me of the headache of Chevy being a TD buyer.

I prefer not having that dead contract to having it. I just don't see it as a big thing IF we are going to be a cap team anyway, which it appears we will be. It is a different story if we would otherwise be a couple of mil below the cap except that that contract puts us over. Which I said in the first place.

 

[GCn07]

Love all the FInnish takes on Lambert from those that have seen him play, but let's not pretend that Liiga coaching and NHL development coaching are even comparable. This kid needs to come to NA ice and get away from 2nd tier professional hockey. I am not trying to offend any of the Finns, but those knocking the dub as a developmental avenue for him are out to lunch. He needs to play away from the ultra boring Liiga style of hockey that is just a poor knock off of 90's NA trap game hockey and get going with guys his own age where he can blossom. Then a couple years in the A after that where he will receive coaching and guidance that is exponentially better than anything he would have gotten in Finland, and certainly where his Dad will have zero ability to meddle. He can be coached up, all players can, he just needs proper coaching and guidance now and a year in the W to erase the ugly stylistic play of the Liiga from his hockey memory bank.

Naturally, all of the above predicates on the fact that he comes into all of this with the right attitude and head space, but I think that will determine his success or failure to become an NHL regular not some grousing that he doesn't have hockey IQ or that he is fundamentally flawed in his positioning. He will work on that and get better in NA, IF he comes committed to doing so.

 

[DeeQ]

I get that many finnish posters are down on him. He soured himself out of many Liiga teams, which we are fans of, so it's understandable. Like come on, it has nothing to do with him being half canadian

I think he made a mistake leaving Hifk. He should have just gone straight to NA or stay with Hifk.

I don't understand why his dad insisted on him playing in Finland. Well it didn't work out and I really hope Lambert listens to the Jets regarding his future.

 

[GCn07]

The coach of the Pelicans (Tommi Niemelä) won the U18 WJC gold for Finland in 2018.



Niemelä is in fact a very good coach. That person blaming the coach is trying to find sad excuses for the bad play of Lambert himself. Quite poor fanboyism. Lambert can’t blame anyone else than himself and his dad for his poor results in Liiga. Everything else is just cheap excuses.

The Liiga is poorly coached overall, and being a player doesn't make a guy a good coach. The games I've watched from the league have left me scratching my head at how poor the systems are.

I get that many finnish posters are down on him. He soured himself out of many Liiga teams, which we are fans of, so it's understandable. Like come on, it has nothing to do with him being half canadian

I think he made a mistake leaving Hifk. He should have just gone straight to NA or stay with Hifk.

I don't understand why his dad insisted on him playing in Finland. Well it didn't work out and I really hope Lambert listens to the Jets regarding his future.

Staying in Finland kinda ruined Vesalainen as well. These guys need to cut the cord if they want to be NHLers, there is nothing to gain for them playing over there. The leagues are just too different in style and in ability to develop young players.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

damn, well maybe the jets should have gave you a call, because clearly you seem to have all the information....

Am I not allowed to disagree with something the Jets have done?

You can disagree with me all you like, but I have given valid reasons for my position. There are also valid opinions on the other side.

I had high hopes for this draft. I am disappointed in the results, at least from the first rd.

 

[Ippenator]

Just fyi garret has been employed by the NHL in some capacity for his "snake oil" for the past several years iirc, kinda funny you dismiss that as an income source lol

I know what garret is about and I have had some quite heavy debates with him before. The extent that some people believe that advanced stats are useful, is just way too much. But it’s a sales business as much as anything, so of course they have a market that they want to convince. People wanting to sell something usually do that. NHL teams wanting desperately to find some kind of advantage over their competition, are as vulnerable to sales pitches as any other parties involved in competitive businesses.

For sure there is some need for advanced stats in moderation and with understanding that they only give some support with the real end results. But to base things in hockey on advanced stats and make clear individual conclusions about players and their meaning for their teams, is just pure foolishness. People who really believe in that have been unfortunately a bit brainwashed by some stats guys who are pretty good at their marketing thing.

 

[gojetsgo]

Am I not allowed to disagree with something the Jets have done?

You can disagree with me all you like, but I have given valid reasons for my position. There are also valid opinions on the other side.

I had high hopes for this draft. I am disappointed in the results, at least from the first rd.

"Every pick needs to be made as well as you can, with the information that you have."
you are claiming the jets made a bad pick off the information you have, as if the jets don't have far more information on the player then you will ever have

 

[ps241]

For developmental milestones I'm looking for him to put up over 1.75 PPG if he plays in the WHL or about 0.7 PPG in the AHL.

Once someone gets to near a PPG in the AHL then they are ready for a callup to the NHL IMO. There aren't very many D+1 players that are allowed to play in the AHL as most have to return to the CHL, continue their college career in the NCAA or stay in Europe for the next season. Europe isn't a good option for Lambert IMO. In fact with most prospects that have decided to stay in Europe the extra year I feel like it has slowed/hurt their development (Vesalainen, Heinola) With COVID there have been a few more D+1 players allowed in the AHL as their CHL team didn't operate.

For the Jets we can look at Cole Perfetti as a benchmark. He put up 111 points in 61 games in his draft year, then 26 points in 32 games in the AHL in his D+1 (0.8125 PPG). Then in his D+2 he was 15 points in 17 games and then got called up.

Jack Roslovic might be another developmental path that we could use as a benchmark as in his D+1 season he went to the NCAA but it didn't work out so he played in the AHL for his D+2 (48 points in 65 games or 0.74 PPG) then the following year in his D+3 he scored 35 points in 32 games and then got called up.

In my view the sooner he comes to North America the better. As he's already playing against men convincing him to play against kids in the CHL may be tough but he could go there and just blow the doors off making everyone look foolish for passing on him. Then go to the AHL the next year and play 30-40 games, start scoring at a PPG clip and then could be a mid to late season addition to the Jets for what may be the last run with the current core as then Scheif, Helle, etc are UFAs. Being able to make his NHL debut 2 years from now would be great IMO.

Good bench marks.

Hopefully Brad turns over a new leaf and works with TNSE on the direction for his development path.

 

[Ippenator]

The Liiga is poorly coached overall, and being a player doesn't make a guy a good coach. The games I've watched from the league have left me scratching my head at how poor the systems are.


Staying in Finland kinda ruined Vesalainen as well. These guys need to cut the cord if they want to be NHLers, there is nothing to gain for them playing over there. The leagues are just too different in style and in ability to develop young players.

Having different systems compared to North America doesn’t mean that they can’t work as well or even better than North American systems. Not understanding something doesn’t mean that it is somehow worse than what you are familiar with.

A good proof is that Finland has been winning gold medals in the last years in all, the U18 WJC (Niemelä was exactly winning one of them as the head coach), U20 WJC and adult olympics as well as adult world championships. And practically every single time Finland had a weaker roster than for example the North American teams. What does it tell then about the North American coaching that Finland managed to beat them so many times wih even weaker rosters?

It’s pure arrogance from you to claim that Liiga is poorly coached overall, when you obviously don’t even know much about coaching there or let alone even watch regularly games there.

 

[GCn07]

I just at The whole deflection that posters commonly use around here. I remember a poster bringing up the fact we were not Arizona or Buffalo should be celebrated, like seriously?

in the case of Lambert vs Chesley.... It's way to early making confounding conclusions on how either players will be years form now. They were just drafted and a whole stage of development and maturing to go through.
Given where they were drafted imo they have to have a year or two (or more) of development to start seeing where they project out.

There's certain traits that you can see from a prospect, and see perhaps a playstyle (pesce for Chesley was mentioned, or I went with AA for Lambert), but how there production falls is anyone's guess.

For sure. Lambert could end up playing zero NHL games and being a bust but really so could Chesley. It will be up to these kids, not the pundits, to write their own script now.

Good post.

Some people are expecting to get a top-5 talent or something with one of the last picks in the first round. Show me drafts where the guy at pick #30 didn't have some underlying issues or concerns. These kids aren't finished products to begin with.

Hell, look at the Draft capital the Coyotes gave up to slide to just outside the top ten to pick Geekie. A kid who has major concerns (not here to debate if it can or cannot be fixed) about his skating.

For sure. Every single guy has knocks in his game or questions about character or skillset outside the top 10.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Chesley has incredibly mediocre stats... esp considering he is one a team where literally everyone is scoring and putting up the points. Him being only the 3rd highest scoring d-man on that team and it not even being particularly close is not an encouraging sign. Not sure why anyone is crying about him of all prospects.

Chesley is a 2 way Dman, not an offensive Dman. He scored at more than .5 ppg which is not bad ..... for a 2 way Dman.

I preferred Luneau myself. Also a 2 way Dman, he is a little bigger, lead his team in scoring among Dmen and scored at a little higher pace, .68 ppg. But I can't judge their relative D play with the info I have.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yea I agree the pick has value.

No matter who we are debating about though there is an 80% chance they are not going to turn into a useful NHL player. I am not justifying any option just saying whoever anyone of us likes in this slot is very far from a sure thing. I don’t think TNSE feels like they are throwing away the pick even though there is hair on it.

Obviously TNSE would be happy with the pick. They are the ones who made the choice.

If you average all of the choices made at that level, you are going to get a low probability of a successful pick. We all hope our team is going to do better than avg.

 

[GCn07]

Having different systems compared to North America doesn’t mean that they can’t work as well or even better than North American systems. not understanding something doesn’t mean that it is somehow worse than what you are familiar with.

A good proof is that Finland has been winning gold medals in the last years in all, the U18 WJC (Niemelä was exactly winning one of them as the head coach), U20 WJC and adult olympics as well as adult world championships. And practically every single time Finland had a weaker roster than for example the North American teams. What does it tell then about the North American coaching that Finland managed to beat them so many times wih even weaker rosters?

It’s pure arrogance from you to claim that Liiga is poorly coached overall, when you obviously don’t even know much about coaching there or let alone even watch regularly games there.

Nothing arrogant at all about it....and yes I have watched games from there, and I could give a fig about WJ hockey. It's a tournament that is more about how quickly the players can find chemistry and who has a hot goalie than it is about coaching. Gimme a break trying to use a one week tourney as proof of system and coaching, that might wash with those unfamiliar with hockey but won't fly with those that do.
As for the coaching there, I stand by my opinion. It is not a league that develops players for the NHL at all. Very poor developmental decision by those that opt for it....and the proof is in the pudding.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Chesley has incredibly mediocre stats... esp considering he is one a team where literally everyone is scoring and putting up the points. Him being only the 3rd highest scoring d-man on that team and it not even being particularly close is not an encouraging sign. Not sure why anyone is crying about him of all prospects.

FWIW
Lambert was 14th among F in scoring on his team. 9 Dmen on that team outscored him.

 

[ps241]

Obviously TNSE would be happy with the pick. They are the ones who made the choice.

If you average all of the choices made at that level, you are going to get a low probability of a successful pick. We all hope our team is going to do better than avg.

I hope they do better than average but I am expecting about average. I love the draft, I love hope, not trying to be a buzz kill just keeping it real with the odds. To be clear 1 in 5 means some players do work out and I am not dismissing the slot. Who was your favourite at #30?

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Kucherov had some time in the KHL before going to the Q and then the A for half a season before making the show. Burakovsky went from Allsvensken to the OHL. It's rare but its not unheard of.

I should have known somebody would have examples. Well, I'm still not sold on him going to junior. I might feel better if he was going to a strong OHL team. Seeing the WHL powerhouse Edmonton team get sand kicked in their face at the Memorial Cup doesn't speak well of the league's overall quality.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Again, this is a 30 overall pick which has a very low chance of being an impact. If he can may it he can be a star. It's easily worth the gamble. Watch his highlights and tell me you don't see a highly skilled player. He was possibly going top 3 in the draft had he continued his progression. Red flag sure, but we wouldn't have been able to get him at 14 even if he didn't regress. The skill and talent are there you hope he can improve.

Yes, it is a gamble and it could possibly pay off big. Not likely, but possible.

The thing for me is simply that I don't see the Jets in a position where they can afford to gamble.

Tough comparable. Its a hell of a lot easier to score in the Q than it is to score in Liiga.

Sure, it is easier to score in the Q - but that is a helluva big difference.

 

[DRW204]

Kane is a physical specimen and he has a much better shot. Skating wise Lambert might be even better than Kane. Kane had great work ethic though. He might have been a head case, and an ass with his teammates, but he was blue collar hard working player.




I don’t think Brad will necessarily dominate in the CHL and I think he needs one or two season against players his age. Scheifele needed two full seasons in Barrie after his draft, Morrissey needed two full seasons in juniors and they were both higher draft picks than Lambert. Brad shit the bed against men last season so let’s mix it up. 95% of all 18 year olds go back to junior after they are drafted. There is zero % chance Lambert is too good for the WHL yet. Let him prove he can dominate at that level then they can promote him.

This kid is a long shot. He is coming off a terrible season and needs to change things up IMO.

Yeah I think folks are selling Kane a bit short on the player he is. If Lambert can string off 7 straight 20 goal+ years, and basically score at a 20+ goal pace every year since his rookie year along with like 100+ hits a year that'd be a great addition to our team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Evander Kane is a good player....

True - and if Lambert had Kane's shot we wouldn't have got him at 30.

Damn, I hope I am wrong about this pick!
If he is anywhere remotely close to a Nik Ehlers I will have to eat my words.

 

[Duke749]

I know what garret is about and I have had some quite heavy debates with him before. The extent that some people believe that advanced stats are useful, is just way too much. But it’s a sales business as much as anything, so of course they have a market that they want to convince. People wanting to sell something usually do that. NHL teams wanting desperately to find some kind of advantage over their competition, are as vulnerable to sales pitches as any other parties involved in competitive businesses.

For sure there is some need for advanced stats in moderation and with understanding that they only give some support with the real end results. But to base things in hockey on advanced stats and make clear individual conclusions about players and their meaning for their teams, is just pure foolisness. People who really believe in that have been unfortunately a bit brainwashed by some stats guys who are pretty good at their marketing thing.

Tell us you don’t understand advanced stats without actually telling us you don’t understand advanced stats. Your dismissal of them and in the way you do is quite arrogant and shows a lack of open mindedness.

 

[jonu]

Nothing arrogant at all about it....and yes I have watched games from there, and I could give a fig about WJ hockey. It's a tournament that is more about how quickly the players can find chemistry and who has a hot goalie than it is about coaching. Gimme a break trying to use a one week tourney as proof of system and coaching, that might wash with those unfamiliar with hockey but won't fly with those that do.
As for the coaching there, I stand by my opinion. It is not a league that develops players for the NHL at all. Very poor developmental decision by those that opt for it....and the proof is in the pudding.

Your posts reek of ignorance.

Just recently Barkov, Aho, Laine, Rantanen, Hintz, Heiskanen, Lundell and others have developed well in Liiga. Sure, it's not a developmental league because everyone is aiming to win and make profit, but if you are good enough you will be rewarded with playing time like Kemell and Slafkovsky were this season.

Lambert was rushed to Liiga by his father pulling the ropes behind the scenes using the hype around him to get him "better competition" and it set Brad's development on the wrong track because he was not physically ready to play in Liiga. He is physically really raw, lacks strength and this forces him to be a perimeter player where he drives himself into a corner but can't leave it or make plays. His offensive numbers have nothing to do with the trap because he has no problem entering the zone with speed, the D-men just force him to stay on the perimeter because he doesn't have enough lower body strength to push against the defense to drive towards the goal.

If Liiga was such dogshit for player development then all the NHL GMs wouldn't want their prospects to stay an extra year or two in Finland after the draft.

Brad just needs a few years to grow some muscle now that he learned that you have to actually eat to build muscle, then he is ready to step into a top6 - top9 role in the Jets.

For the sake of the Jets and Finnish fans let's hope he pans out because if he does he will be a electrifying player.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Harkens was supposed to be a first rounder in a very strong 2015 draft. Many of you HFb debaters wanted him drafted with the Jets 2nd 1 st round Jet pick @ 25 that year! ( we picked Rozlo)

Harkens fell to the Hets 47 th pick overall and many of you HFB debaters claimed we got. 3 1 st round talents.

Harkens shot the bed being slightly above average in his next 2 years in the WHL and below average in his first 2 AHL years. All of HFB debaters thought we had a bust pick at this point!

In his last year in his ELC ……. He broke out and dominated his third AHL season. ( everybody on HFB claimed we had a rising star again.

122 NHL games later with 22 points. (seems like we got so ordinary crackers)

Hang on ……. I’m going to flip a coin!


I’ve decided …… that Lambert is a great pick for the Jets! He is going to be awesome ! All the other 22 teams that chose b4 us (30 picks) are going to be steaming mad in 5 years time!

Go ahead and mark this post so that we can discuss this thread again in 2027! As there are many of the same posters on here from 2015 that loved or hated the Harkens pick!