Prospect Info: Brad Lambert, 30th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Harkens was supposed to be a first rounder in a very strong 2015 draft. Many of you HFb debaters wanted him drafted with the Jets 2nd 1 st round Jet pick @ 25 that year! ( we picked Rozlo)

Harkens fell to the Hets 47 th pick overall and many of you HFB debaters claimed we got. 3 1 st round talents.

Harkens shot the bed being slightly above average in his next 2 years in the WHL and below average in his first 2 AHL years. All of HFB debaters thought we had a bust pick at this point!

In his last year in his ELC ……. He broke out and dominated his third AHL season. ( everybody on HFB claimed we had a rising star again.

122 NHL games later with 22 points. (seems like we got so ordinary crackers)

Hang on ……. I’m going to flip a coin!


I’ve decided …… that Lambert is a great pick for the Jets! He is going to be awesome ! All the other 22 teams that chose b4 us (30 picks) are going to be steaming mad in 5 years time!

Go ahead and mark this post so that we can discuss this thread again in 2027! As there are many of the same posters on here from 2015 that loved or hated the Harkens pick!

Side note….. in 2015 a lot of you posters thought we should have drafted nick Merkly from Kelowna that ended up being drafted at 30 by Arizona.

41 NHL games 14 points for him!

 

[scelaton]

I hope they do better than average but I am expecting about average. I love the draft, I love hope, not trying to be a buzz kill just keeping it real with the odds. To be clear 1 in 5 means some players do work out and I am not dismissing the slot. Who was your favourite at #30?

Don't know if anyone else answered your earlier inquiry, but the odds of drafting an impact player at #30 are higher than 1 in 5. The graph below is "smoothed out", showing a probability of ~40%, but looking at yearly data there are actually wide confidence intervals. In Lambert's case, the floor to ceiling range is even higher, so there is no real point in trying to put a number to it.

The middle of the second round is where the curve starts to flatten toward your 20% probability range.

Here is an analysis using 100 games

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

 

[cbcwpg]

“One of the biggest problems for Lambert this season has been that his role consistently changes throughout a game. He may start the game in the top-six, but would often be relegated to bottom-six duty after the first period. With the expectation that he needed to make an immediate impact, he was often unable to get comfortable with linemates to create chemistry. While this is partly on Lambert for not taking advantage, it is also a recipe for disaster when you’re expecting a young player to take a leading role in a men’s league.” – Tony Ferrari, The Hockey News

Sportsnet’s Sean Reynolds said on his podcast “The Kenny & Renny Show”, that he asked his Finnish sources about what they thought went wrong with Lambert and the response was that he was in a bad situation last season. The choice he made about where to play was indeed a hindrance to his development. Mark Hillier, the director of amateur scouting for the Jets confirmed this in a post-draft interview.

Hillier ( Jets ) wouldn’t confirm this but suggested the WHL would be his preference.

 

[Ippenator]

Tell us you don’t understand advanced stats without actually telling us you don’t understand advanced stats. Your dismissal of them and in the way you do is quite arrogant and shows a lack of open mindedness.

There’s a big difference with understanding something with it’s use and weaknesses to just blindly taking it as somekind of religious gospel, without really understanding where the use is and where it definitely isn’t. Some people within hockey (mostly in North America, not so much in Europe) have become absolutely religious about the advanced stats and what they tell in the end. Your comment shows exactly that you yourself have no clue of what you are talking about - you are just believing in something.

 

[lomiller1]

Chesley is a 2 way Dman, not an offensive Dman. He scored at more than .5 ppg which is not bad ..... for a 2 way Dman.

That just means he has insufficient skill to be an offensive D-man. A skill deficiency in Junior tends to translate into becoming bottom pair players in the NHL if they make it at all.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I like to think the Lambert that we could get is the guy that was leading his team in scoring at the World juniors. Granted it was 2 games but he looked really good against his peers

 

[lomiller1]

Yes, it is a gamble and it could possibly pay off big. Not likely, but possible.

The thing for me is simply that I don't see the Jets in a position where they can afford to gamble.

It's a gamble either way. It's a choice between a gamble that could pay off big and a gamble that could pay off small.

 

[Pongs21]

I would have been disappointed with Lambert at 14, but absolutely ecstatic with him at 30. The game now is so strongly based around speed, and Lambert has that in spades. With the lack of top end elite talent in this draft, Lambert, if he hits his potential, is one of those elite talent guys. Bring him over for camp and then make the decision between WHL and AHL. Hoping he's willing to go where the Jet's want him and trusting the teams vision for his development and not arguing and making his own decision. Going with what the Jets want will answer character and arrogance rumors that seem to be attached to him.
We got our RHD in Salomonsson with our next pick. Going with one of the RHD available at that time for me would have been a reach and drafting based on team needs and not going with BPA. Lambert at 30 wasn't a reach. Having 2 1st rounders allows you to take a swing which I'm really happy the Jets did. I recall some of the biggest nay-sayers in here confidently saying that a 3rd round pick on Stanley would have been a waste and that he'd never see a minute in the NHL. Also, if the RHD available at that time were projected to be top pairing D men, they would have gone in the top 10/15, not available at 30.. I'll stick with our scouts opinion here on this one.

 

[RustyCat]

“One of the biggest problems for Lambert this season has been that his role consistently changes throughout a game. He may start the game in the top-six, but would often be relegated to bottom-six duty after the first period. With the expectation that he needed to make an immediate impact, he was often unable to get comfortable with linemates to create chemistry. While this is partly on Lambert for not taking advantage, it is also a recipe for disaster when you’re expecting a young player to take a leading role in a men’s league.” – Tony Ferrari, The Hockey News

Sportsnet’s Sean Reynolds said on his podcast “The Kenny & Renny Show”, that he asked his Finnish sources about what they thought went wrong with Lambert and the response was that he was in a bad situation last season. The choice he made about where to play was indeed a hindrance to his development. Mark Hillier, the director of amateur scouting for the Jets confirmed this in a post-draft interview.

Hillier ( Jets ) wouldn’t confirm this but suggested the WHL would be his preference.

I am curious on which route the organization will choose to do. It isn't about putting up a million points in the WHL, it is about working on the areas that the Jets development staff identify. Lambert has said he is open to going to where ever the club feels is best for his development so that is a great attitude to have.

That said, the AHL might be the right option as well if it becomes an issue of the law of diminishing returns while playing in the juniors.

The organization seems to know what they are doing with prospects so I am trusting that.

 

[Ippenator]

I like to think the Lambert that we could get is the guy that was leading his team in scoring at the World juniors. Granted it was 2 games but he looked really good against his peers

It was against weakish Germany and very weak Austria. I wouldn’t make too many conclusions about that. He would have scored a ton of points in the Finnish A-junior league last season, just with his magnificent skating and good hands. Austria is around that level as an opponent, and Germany in that tournament wasn’t a lot better.

I’m in fact quite sure that Lambert will score a lot of points at the WJC in August. His strengths make him shine against less physical and not so organized and well defending opponents. But what will it tell in the end if he scores a ton of points at the WJC? Just that his skillset works against juniors. Unfortunately he won’t be playing against juniors much in either the NHL or the AHL.

 

[lomiller1]

Don't know if anyone else answered your earlier inquiry, but the odds of drafting an impact player at #30 are higher than 1 in 5. The graph below is "smoothed out", showing a probability of ~40%, but looking at yearly data there are actually wide confidence intervals. In Lambert's case, the floor to ceiling range is even higher, so there is no real point in trying to put a number to it.

The middle of the second round is where the curve starts to flatten toward your 20% probability range.


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Here is an analysis using 100 games

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

200 NHL games played isn't an impact player. 30% here includes a lot of journeymen and bottom pair/4th line players who are available every year for league minimum salary in free agency. Your chance to get a player who actually makes a difference is much smaller.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I see those "promising RHD" as a much bigger gamble. The chances of any of them being a top pair D-man is almost zero. If they turn into a middle pair D-man that would be a good result, but it's hardly guaranteed. Would you rather have a 20% chance of a 3/4 D-man or a a 20% chance of a 70 point Center.

I get your point. But those % don't match my guesses. The RHD in question might be 10% chance of being top pair, or less, maybe it is only 5%. But I think they have a little better than avg chance of making it as 2nd pair D. But realistically, probably not much better. So lets stick with 20% at 2nd pair and 25% at 200 NHL games.

But Lambert might be a <5% chance at becoming a 70 pt C. His resume says he has a less than avg chance of becoming an NHL player, IMO. 10% chance of becoming a 50pt RW and that might be generous. But his demonstrated skills might give him a >20% chance of playing 200 NHL games.

True that regardless of how we go, it will be a gamble. I see Lambert as a bigger gamble. Though when I try to express it as numbers, like I just did, the difference in the gambles looks smaller than my gut reaction thinks it is. And of course those numbers are backed only by the avg for players taken at 30 and my gut adjustments.

I can see Lambert being as frustrating as Burmi was - and Burmi got 348 NHL games. Even Petan got 154 games .... and he may not be quite done yet.

In Ehlers case is mostly wasn't true, just people parroting elements of PM excuses for playing scrubs over an obviously superior young player.

Ehlers did skate circles around opposing nets a little too often, but yes, that was not most of the time.

 

[lomiller1]

There’s a big difference with understanding something with it’s use and weaknesses to just blindly taking it as somekind of religious gospel, without really understanding where the use is and where it definitely isn’t. Some people within hockey (mostly in North America, not so much in Europe) have become absolutely religious about the advanced stats and what they tell in the end. Your comment shows exactly that you yourself have no clue of what you are talking about - you are just believing in something.

Using advanced stats comes down to whether you accept things with some evidence or whether you reject them and make your conclusions with no evidence at all. Only the latter strikes me as "someking of a religious gospel"

 

[JetsFan815]

Chesley is a 2 way Dman, not an offensive Dman. He scored at more than .5 ppg which is not bad ..... for a 2 way Dman.

I preferred Luneau myself. Also a 2 way Dman, he is a little bigger, lead his team in scoring among Dmen and scored at a little higher pace, .68 ppg. But I can't judge their relative D play with the info I have.

He has 29 pts in 59 games that puts him at .492 PPG. It doesn't matter if you are an offensive dman or not... data has shown that most guys who go on to make it top-4 d-men tend to score in the minors. Even Stanley had 17 pts in his draft year in only 5 more games than this guy. I do not look at those stats and think "that's a sure fire top-4 pick".

FWIW
Lambert was 14th among F in scoring on his team. 9 Dmen on that team outscored him.

One guy is playing against men in a men's league where icetime is limited for younger players. The other is playing against people closer to his age and skillset on a team whose entire purpose is to give the players enough ice to develop them... completely incomparable situation. The guy who went 1st overall only had 10 points in the Liiga and was 13th among forwards on his team for points.

 

[ps241]

I should have known somebody would have examples. Well, I'm still not sold on him going to junior. I might feel better if he was going to a strong OHL team. Seeing the WHL powerhouse Edmonton team get sand kicked in their face at the Memorial Cup doesn't speak well of the league's overall quality.

It’s an interesting debate.

My challenge is I don’t think Brad is that good “yet”. He has some great tools, and some major challenges, but he hasn’t put it together. Playing against men and failing to the point his draft stock tanked makes it clear to me he was in over his head.

If he plays in the CHL he’s not playing against kids either, he would be playing against his age peer group.

The main thing is I don’t see any down side in playing in Seattle. The worst that could happen is he’s too good (highly unlikely IMO).

 

[Joe Hallenback]

It was against weakish Germany and very weak Austria. I wouldn’t make too many conclusions about that. He would’be scored a ton of points in the Finnish A-junior league last season, just with his magnificent skating and good hands. Austria is around that level as an opponent, and Germany in that tournament wasn’t a lot better.

I in fact am quite sure that Lambert will score a lot of points in the WJC in August. His strengths make him shine against less physical and not so organized and well defending opponents. But what will it tell in the end if he scores a ton of points at the WJC? Just that his skillset works against juniors. Unfortunately he won’t be playing against juniors much in either the NHL or the AHL.

Best players play there best against weaker opponents as peers. Canada racked up points as well. When you utilize what you have the correct way that is what will happen. Kemell had 0 points those 2 games. Is he terrible then?

Everything I am reading about this guy and everything that I have heard is he was poorly used where he was and it would do him a lot of good to get away from that situation

 

[Ippenator]

Using advanced stats comes down to whether you accept things with some evidence or whether you reject them and make your conclusions with no evidence at all. Only the latter strikes me as "someking of a religious gospel"

I completely agree. This is what it should exactly he about. Unfortunately way too rarely it is for people who are enthusiastic about advanced stats and using them. But using the advanced stats by themselves to make a case goes almost always wrong. You need to see the games and understand the complexity that there is with player types, playing styles (individual and team), opponents, and even situations and factors outside the rink (health issues and personal tragedies). You can only get a bit of confirmation on something that you have seen reoccurring often enough by watching games, by looking at the advanced stats.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

By that logic taking a RHD early isn't necessary because any D-man taken anywhere in the draft could become a top pair D. It's not about what's theoretically possible, it's about reasonable expectation and it's not reasonable to expect any of the players available at 30 to be top pair defenders.

Considering the success rate of players taken at 30, you could say it is not reasonable to expect them to make the NHL at all.

IMO, those players have at least a little better than avg chance of making the NHL. Within that window, I think they have a good chance of becoming 3/4 defenders. And within that window they have a small but reasonable chance of becoming 1st pair D.

Language like reasonable and good chance is a little vague. Sorry, I can't put real numbers to it.

Imagine you drafted 20 players with the overall packages that Chesley and Luneau have. Do you think it would be reasonable to expect just 1 of the 20 to become a 1st pair D? If so (and I can't believe it would not be reasonable) then there would reasonably be a 5% chance. Would 4 make 2nd pair? 20% chance. Would 6 play 200 NHL games? 30% chance.

Made up numbers, but "reasonable", IMO. But just my opinion.

 

[lomiller1]

I get your point. But those % don't match my guesses. The RHD in question might be 10% chance of being top pair, or less, maybe it is only 5%. But I think they have a little better than avg chance of making it as 2nd pair D. But realistically, probably not much better. So lets stick with 20% at 2nd pair and 25% at 200 NHL games.

Your guesses are unreasonable. None of the D-men you are looking at have anywhere close to a 10% chance of turning into top pair nor do they have an average chance of becoming second pair. Based on where they are in the draft it's more like < 1% chance of becoming top pair, ~20% chance of becoming middle pair 25% chance of becoming bottom pair or lower and 50% chance of never playing more then a handful of NHL games.

Lambert has a similarly low chance to become an NHL player, but his skill level is vastly higher then the guys you'd like to draft. Unlike the guys you want he has the raw skills to become a star player in the NHL and not just a guy you can pick up for $2 million in free agency.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We had no choice with He Who Shall Not Be Named because he was bound by the NHL-CHL agreement. WHL is a step back for Lambert. Name another player who was demoted to a lesser league after being drafted then gone on to excel in the NHL.

Good debate here. Points on both sides. But I take 241's point that Lambert played against men and failed. Give him 1 year in the dub and then send him to the Moose.

 

[Ippenator]

Best players play there best against weaker opponents as peers. Canada racked up points as well. When you utilize what you have the correct way that is what will happen. Kemell had 0 points those 2 games. Is he terrible then?

Everything I am reading about this guy and everything that I have heard is he was poorly used where he was and it would do him a lot of good to get away from that situation

So four times poorly used? He was in that many Liiga teams during a bit over two years of a time span. And he couldn’t get his game to work in any of them - at all. Could it be after all that there is seriously something wrong with him?

And Kemell had a pretty serious shoulder injury after a couple of months during the season. He missed loads of games after that and was very weak for a long time after coming back from the injury. The U20 WJC was exactly around that time. He was leading Liiga in goals and points before his injury and when he came back from the injury he went for over ten games without any points. Only around the U18 WJC tournament in spring, Kemell started to get a bit of his game back. But even then he wasn’t even close to the player that he was before his injury.

 

[ps241]

Yeah I think folks are selling Kane a bit short on the player he is. If Lambert can string off 7 straight 20 goal+ years, and basically score at a 20+ goal pace every year since his rookie year along with like 100+ hits a year that'd be a great addition to our team.

Just to clarify if Lambert ever turned into Kane I would be beyond thrilled. Kane had his shortcomings but I really liked his game. Lambert doesn’t have Kane’s shot or his power so I don’t see Brad going that route.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

So four times poorly used? He was in that many Liiga teams during a bit over two years of a time span. And he couldn’t get his game to work in any of them - at all. Could it be after all that there is seriously something wrong with him?

And Kemell had a pretty serious shoulder injury after a couple of months during the season. He missed loads of games after that and was very weak for a long time after coming back from the injury. The U20 WJC was exactly around that time. He was leading Liiga in goals and points before his injury and when he came back from the injury he went for over ten games without any points. Only around around U18 WJC tournament Kemell started to get a bit of his game back. But even then he wasn’t even close to the player that he was before his injury.

He shouldn't have been playing pro hockey. He should have been in Juniors the entire time. In fact I think his camp made a huge mistake staying in Finland. If he came over to the WHL, I bet he is a top 10 pick

 

[tbcwpg]

So four times poorly used? He was in that many Liiga teams during a bit over two years of a time span. And he couldn’t get his game to work in any of them - at all. Could it be after all that there is seriously something wrong with him?

And Kemell had a pretty serious shoulder injury after a couple of months during the season. He missed loads of games after that and was very weak for a long time after coming back from the injury. The WJC was exactly around that time. He was leading Liiga in goals and points before his injury and when he came back from the injury he went for over ten games without any points. Only around around U18 tournament Kemell started to get a bit of his game back. But even them he wasn’t even close to the player that he was before his injury.

The Jets would've picked Kemell over Lambert at 30 if both were there, I'm sure.

I'm curious as to why you've returned to the Jets board after being mostly absent since the Laine trade to continously argue how much this guy sucks. What is it about Lambert that makes you so vociferous about how poor of a prospect he is?

What's wrong with Lambert? A mix of his own choices and the usage of the player. I'd like to see him in a different environment before judging whether something is seriously wrong about him.

 

[MardyBum]

Just to clarify if Lambert ever turned into Kane I would be beyond thrilled. Kane had his shortcomings but I really liked his game. Lambert doesn’t have Kane’s shot or his power so I don’t see Brad going that route.

No one could snipe the glass behind the net quite like Kane streaking down the wing in a Jets jersey lol.

The Jets would've picked Kemell over Lambert at 30 if both were there, I'm sure.

I'm curious as to why you've returned to the Jets board after being mostly absent since the Laine trade to continously argue how much this guy sucks. What is it about Lambert that makes you so vociferous about how poor of a prospect he is?

What's wrong with Lambert? A mix of his own choices and the usage of the player. I'd like to see him in a different environment before judging whether something is seriously wrong about him.

If only there was a thread in the prospects forum for non Jets fans to complain about Lambert. Someone should probably make one.