Prospect Info: Brad Lambert, 30th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[mondo3]

It would be interesting to know how the Jets rank players for the draft. Do they have Lambert as a high risk high reward option ranked above a low risk medium reward player like Chesney and sort them on that basis

 

[Flair Hay]

isn't the whl lower scoring than the qmjhl

Yeah, but by how much. The guy would have to be in that neighbourhood to be looked at as the kind of ridiculous steal some of us fans are hoping he is.

I like the upside swing at that point in the draft. But I'm trying to be realistic. Ehlers was a junior superstar. Hopefully Lambert can be that as well. But even a point a game player this coming season would be signaling nothing special at the NHL level

 

[Flair Hay]

If Lambert was playing in the WHL this season he would've gone top 10, in my view.

You may be right. That's part of the reason he slipped. But that doesnt negate the concerns that come with what happened when he did play in Finland.

Not trying to shit on the kid, it may be coming off that way? Electric skating and puck handling.

A year or two in the WHL as a key player on a great team is exactly what he needs.

If he starts to flourish in that environment, that's reason to get excited. But if he isnt putting up 100 points/ 1.5 pts/game or more next season we are very likely talking 3rd liner as a ceiling (or worse)

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

Lambert struggles finding shooting lanes and doesn't deceive his intentions, making it easy for defenders to block his shot attempts. He simply lacks the offensive qualities both in terms of scoring and playmaking despite having an elite skillset.

This just feels like a made up criticism. Lambert doesn't struggle with not being deceptive with his shots or passes. Watch any of his videos and you can see plenty of examples him making a move or out-waiting the defender to get a clear lane to shoot or make a cross-ice pass.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm impressed with your certainty, but you left out the IMO part.

Now that I've had a chance to look more closely, I see more that reminds me more of early Ehlers than early Burmi. Fast as lightning, quick in transition, skates through defences and... holds on to the puck till he is out of good options. People forget how much flak Ehlers took in his first few years here for his his individualistic play, but now he is a star. That is what development is all about.

Drafting at #30 is always a calculated risk and no one can be certain of the outcome 3-5 years hence. What is known is that well under 50% become true impact players in the NHL and only a tiny percentage become stars.

I'll take my chances with Lambert as compared with any player not named Connor that the Jets 2.0 have drafted in the latter half of the first round or second round since their inception.

This was not a draft class strong at the top but, IMO, it was deep. Ehlers never had anything like Lambert's 'issues'. Big difference - Ehlers draft year, 63 gms, 49 G, 104 pts. Can't compare directly to D-1 because Ehlers played in Europe that year. Lambert played both years in Liiga, D-1 46 gms, 15 pts, draft year, 49 gms, 10 pts. That drop off in a year where we usually see a big increase is a huge red flag to me.

Ehlers was always a good passer. The problem appeared to be that he would hold on to the puck too long looking for the perfect pass or the perfect shot. Lambert may be doing the same thing but it sounds more like just trying to do it all himself. That can be coached out of him, if he is willing to be coached.

I don't like the gamble. I think the risk is just too high in a situation where we can't afford risk. The saying is that you should never bet money you can't afford to lose. Jets can't afford to lose 1st rd picks.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just at The whole deflection that posters commonly use around here. I remember a poster bringing up the fact we were not Arizona or Buffalo should be celebrated, like seriously?

in the case of Lambert vs Chesley.... It's way to early making confounding conclusions on how either players will be years form now. They were just drafted and a whole stage of development and maturing to go through.
Given where they were drafted imo they have to have a year or two (or more) of development to start seeing where they project out.

There's certain traits that you can see from a prospect, and see perhaps a playstyle (pesce for Chesley was mentioned, or I went with AA for Lambert), but how there production falls is anyone's guess.

Of course no one knows for certain, but we can see probabilities. Otherwise don't scout at all. Don't draft. Just randomly distribute the players and see what happens 5 years later.

I don't like the pick and I'm not going to until he turns into a premium player. But draft position ceases to have much meaning once the draft is over. I am rooting for him to overcome his weaknesses and be a huge success. But, if he doesn't, I will still be whining about this pick years from now.

 

[Rengorlex]

This just feels like a made up criticism. Lambert doesn't struggle with not being deceptive with his shots or passes. Watch any of his videos and you can see plenty of examples him making a move or out-waiting the defender to get a clear lane to shoot or make a cross-ice pass.

You tell me why his production is awful then.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

You tell me why his production is awful then.

This has already been posted several times I believe, but once more won't hurt.
The scouching report is worth a watch.


There may still be issues with Lambert but this video addresses a few of them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You said top pairing potential. I don't believe that to be the case just because a player has "2nd pairing upside". The upside is generally the ceiling. Chesley was compared to Ryan Lindgren of the Rangers in his scouting report. There's no top pair potential there.

It was shallow in talent. We have needs in basically everything apart from left shot defenceman. Especially given that these players are at least 3 years away from playing in the NHL - situations change quickly. At one point drafting more rhd would've been silly under your criteria but then in one offseason the whole right side evaporated. Unless you're in maybe the top 5 picks and everything is equal but position, BPA is the far more effective solution. Fill your pipeline with positional picks in the late 2nd downward.

I disagree. Of course the potential is there. I don't think these players ceilings are 2nd pair. That is their most probable projection but it is way too early to say that there is zero chance of more.

I also disagree it was shallow in talent, but I'm no expert on ranking draft classes. We will see in about 5 years.

I can agree that we have needs almost everywhere but RD is the hardest position to fill, at least among skaters.

That right side evaporating was entirely predictable except for Buff retiring. In hindsight, even that maybe should have been anticipated because of 20 years of wear and tear on a 260-275 lb body but I don't think anyone saw it coming quite when it did. But if that had not happened the way it did he would almost certainly have been gone after 2 more years. So some planning for rebuilding the right side should have been done.

Right now, the only real RD prospect we have is Gawanke, and he already requires waivers. That might not be an issue if we had a good right side, but we don't. If Pionk bounces back, it is only a little weak. If not, it is really bad.

The last RD we drafted in the 1st rd was Trouba, 11 drafts ago. Since then not only have we not taken 1 in the 1st rd, we have taken only 1 in the 2nd rd, Simon Lundmark in '19. We also took just 1 in the 3rd rd, Kovacevic in '17. So it still goes back to Trouba since we drafted a successful RD.

I believe that position has to be a component when choosing BPA, along with all of the other characteristics of a player. But even if we ignore that entirely, I don't believe that a high risk, boom or bust player with possible character issues was the BPA in this case.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

yes it is a headache, it's only useful to teams if the players who go on ltir come back for playoffs...

That still doesn't make it a headache. It is a nothing. Player goes on LTIR and his salary doesn't count against the cap.

If a team is otherwise not spending to the cap, then it is a bit of a headache because you can't LTIR his salary. That doesn't look like it will apply to the Jets this year.

It does simplify things a bit, not having to consider that potential cap hit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have to say it's interesting to read in one post that no one thought Slavin had top pairing potential in the 3rd as a justification for taking someone like Chesley with 30th and then read in another that the player the Jets picked in the 4th already has no value.

Do you think Brown has shown the potential that Slavin had shown in his draft year? Both came out of the USHL. Slavin's ppg were double Brown's.

The problem is not that Brown was picked in the 4th. It is that he was not expected to go that high. Were you not surprised by the pick? It seems pretty much everyone else was, by the comments.

 

[Brock]

I'm not the world's biggest Lambert fan, however I can tell you that I'm the only one on my staff that feels that way. Universally loved by every other McKeen's scout/writer.

You won't find a better breakdown of Lambert than this one, however it's only for McKeen's subscribers. TONS of video.

Subscribe

 

[gojetsgo]

That still doesn't make it a headache. It is a nothing. Player goes on LTIR and his salary doesn't count against the cap.

If a team is otherwise not spending to the cap, then it is a bit of a headache because you can't LTIR his salary. That doesn't look like it will apply to the Jets this year.

It does simplify things a bit, not having to consider that potential cap hit.

I'm glad it doesn't give you a headache... but ltir is not that simple...
from murats article at the time of the trade:
"With Little’s contract off the books, Winnipeg can avoid going into long-term injured reserve (LTIR) next season. The Jets will be able to build cap space throughout the year by staying below the cap maximum. This might not sound like much but it’s huge in terms of Winnipeg’s flexibility.

Recall that cap space prorates: A little bit of space saved early in the season turns into a lot on deadline day. This is how the Jets could afford Stastny in 2018 and hayes in 2019"

also don't have to worry about being cap compliant with little's contract day 1 of the season, we had to waive frenchie 2 years ago because toninato got injured and we wouldn't have been able to be compliant with out that...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pick a player that was available at 30 who'd you rather have taken, for the negative nancy's in here. Just 1. Your favourite. Then lets see in 3-4 years who is where. It's too easy to just say "oh take one of these 4 guys".

"Oh, don't take Rutger, take Lekkerimaki, or Kemell, or Ohgren, or Ostlund. If any of those players hit I'm right" Dax has it right with his list. I would've taken Kemell over Rutger, and wanted Lambert at 30.

I wanted Nazar at 14. Unfortunately, he was gone at 13. Given that, I am not too unhappy with McGroarty, but I would have taken Ohgren if it was left to me.

At 30 Chesley seems to come up pretty often here and was the next one on my list taken, but I like Luneau better myself. I would have taken the pair at 30 & 55 if possible.

Lambert, I simply would not have drafted. I don't mean I would not take him, no matter what. Just that I had no interest in him. I assume someone, somewhere, would have taken him long before he appeared on my radar screen.

 

[MardyBum]

So did Aatu Räty. I don't think the Islanders' board was swarmed like this, but I could be wrong.

And they're certainly laughing now at his progress.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So did Aatu Räty. I don't think the Islanders' board was swarmed like this, but I could be wrong.

True - but Raty was taken 52, not 30. Still, there is a similarity. Did Raty also have Lambert's rumoured other issues?

If Lambert rebounds as well as Raty appears to be doing and they both keep it up at the NHL level I will eat my crow with a side of hat.

Guys what is the mathematical probabily of an NHL player drafted at #30 OA making it to 200 NHL games? I thought it was about 20%, am I wrong on that?

I don't think you are far off, if any. That doesn't mean you should further lower that success rate by gambling on players with serious issues. Every pick needs to be made as well as you can, with the information that you have.

 

[gojetsgo]

True - but Raty was taken 52, not 30. Still, there is a similarity. Did Raty also have Lambert's rumoured other issues?

If Lambert rebounds as well as Raty appears to be doing and they both keep it up at the NHL level I will eat my crow with a side of hat.



I don't think you are far off, if any. That doesn't mean you should further lower that success rate by gambling on players with serious issues. Every pick needs to be made as well as you can, with the information that you have.

damn, well maybe the jets should have gave you a call, because clearly you seem to have all the information....

 

[JetsFan815]

Chesley has incredibly mediocre stats... esp considering he is one a team where literally everyone is scoring and putting up the points. Him being only the 3rd highest scoring d-man on that team and it not even being particularly close is not an encouraging sign. Not sure why anyone is crying about him of all prospects.

 

[ps241]

I don't think you are far off, if any. That doesn't mean you should further lower that success rate by gambling on players with serious issues. Every pick needs to be made as well as you can, with the information that you have.

Yea I agree the pick has value.

No matter who we are debating about though there is an 80% chance they are not going to turn into a useful NHL player. I am not justifying any option just saying whoever anyone of us likes in this slot is very far from a sure thing. I don’t think TNSE feels like they are throwing away the pick even though there is hair on it.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Yea I agree the pick has value.

No matter who we are debating about though there is an 80% chance they are not going to turn into a useful NHL player. I am not justifying any option just saying whoever anyone of us likes in this slot is very far from a sure thing. I don’t think TNSE feels like they are throwing away the pick even though there is hair on it.

Entertainment value alone will be worth the price . Could be most fun to watch since Connor/Ehlers.

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

Reading through this, it seems to me that we've drafted the Finnish Evander Kane..

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Reading through this, it seems to me that we've drafted the Finnish Evander Kane..

 

[Mooche]

Reading through this, it seems to me that we've drafted the Finnish Evander Kane..

Er, let's slow down on that comparison.

After all, no sightings of him at Club Regent losing at the Blackjack tables just yet.

 

[Ippenator]

Er, let's slow down on that comparison.

After all, no sightings of him at Club Regent losing at the Blackjack tables just yet.

If that ever happens, I think his father will be making the bets…

 

[Thechozen1]

Chesley has incredibly mediocre stats... esp considering he is one a team where literally everyone is scoring and putting up the points. Him being only the 3rd highest scoring d-man on that team and it not even being particularly close is not an encouraging sign. Not sure why anyone is crying about him of all prospects.

He’s much better than his stats line suggests. He takes all the tough defensive assignments. I believe he has more untapped offensive potential than he has been given opportunity to show as there are much higher offensively skilled defensemen on his team.