Prospect Info: Brad Lambert, 30th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft

[Mooche]

Lots of talk about the "reality check" moment that sliding to pick #30 is going to give Brad here.

I agree whole heartedly. A lot of it is going to be up to him to take control and do what is best for his development to one day be an effective pro.

However, when it comes to his Dad's meddling, you have to think that this slide in the draft is going to be just as eye opening for him, as well.

This very well might be the moment where he realizes, despite what he's felt in the past is best for his son, that it is time to loosen up the grip and let some other people who have Brad's best interest take control on his career path.

There is many different ways to a skin a cat with the same ultimate goal in mind. In this case, Brad being a productive pro and helping the Jets win hockey games.

Sometimes we can only get our loved ones to a certain point without help. That's hard to accept for many, especially a strong personality like his Dad, but sometimes a catalyst such as watching firsthand your son sliding to pick #30, when he was a consensus top three pick for years prior, is all it takes.

All options need to be on the table for Brad going forward. WHL, Pro, etc.

 

[scelaton]

Its only a risk worth taking at #30, or any other number, if there was no better choice available. There were better choices available.

I'm impressed with your certainty, but you left out the IMO part.

Now that I've had a chance to look more closely, I see more that reminds me of early Ehlers than early Burmi. Fast as lightning, quick in transition, skates through defences and... holds on to the puck till he is out of good options. People forget how much flak Ehlers took in his first few years here for his his individualistic play, but now he is a star. That is what development is all about.

Drafting at #30 is always a calculated risk and no one can be certain of the outcome 3-5 years hence. What is known is that well under 50% become true impact players in the NHL and only a tiny percentage become stars.

I'll take my chances with Lambert as compared with any player not named Connor that the Jets 2.0 have drafted in the latter half of the first round or second round since their inception.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ah geez Mort, here I am trying to bask in the glow of ignorant hope and enthusiasm and you have to go and introduce a level of logic. Lol

I'm going to call this draft a win for now, follow their development and then throw them all down the well when they bust.

The Brown pick was... odd, but the phone chat with McGroarty put a smile on my face. I will take those days from my Jets team when they come.

Fair enough

But I don't think I was asking for much. There were 5 RHD that I wanted just 1 of with 2 picks in the top 30.

 

[DRW204]

I don’t really care who other teams pass on. Not saying he’s a sure thing to be a top pairing guy, but I do see a very solid top 4 minute munching defensive defenseman who has untapped offense in his skill set.

I just at The whole deflection that posters commonly use around here. I remember a poster bringing up the fact we were not Arizona or Buffalo should be celebrated, like seriously?

in the case of Lambert vs Chesley.... It's way to early making confounding conclusions on how either players will be years form now. They were just drafted and a whole stage of development and maturing to go through.
Given where they were drafted imo they have to have a year or two (or more) of development to start seeing where they project out.

There's certain traits that you can see from a prospect, and see perhaps a playstyle (pesce for Chesley was mentioned, or I went with AA for Lambert), but how there production falls is anyone's guess.

 

[tbcwpg]

I didn't say they projected to top pair. They may project to 2nd pair. But any 18 YO D who projects 2nd pair has 1st pair upside. We see 4th and 5th rd Dmen make it to the top pairing fairly often.

Being our 2nd 1st rounder couldn't possibly be more irrelevant. It is when you have extra high picks that you have the chance to gain ground. That is not the time to start playing fast and loose.

This draft was not shallow. It lacked top end star power. If anything, it was deep. Thinking a decision is easy is the template for making bad decisions. We need hits. We don't need to go down swinging. We have real needs. We can't afford to be gambling. If we had a solid roster and a solid prospect pool we could afford to gamble. We are nowhere near that kind of situation.

We got a bonus for a player who was not going to sign here - so you think it is a good idea to throw it away?

You said top pairing potential. I don't believe that to be the case just because a player has "2nd pairing upside". The upside is generally the ceiling. Chesley was compared to Ryan Lindgren of the Rangers in his scouting report. There's no top pair potential there.

It was shallow in talent. We have needs in basically everything apart from left shot defenceman. Especially given that these players are at least 3 years away from playing in the NHL - situations change quickly. At one point drafting more rhd would've been silly under your criteria but then in one offseason the whole right side evaporated. Unless you're in maybe the top 5 picks and everything is equal but position, BPA is the far more effective solution. Fill your pipeline with positional picks in the late 2nd downward.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Your red flags on him are mostly rumors. I'll trust our front office's decision over internet rumors. This spot in the draft is a gamble no matter what and you're pretending like there were some sure fire picks over Lambert. Yeah right. This is a gamble no matter who is picked at this spot except this gamble can turn into one of the best players in the draft if things click.

The interfering father is more than rumour. Or, if it is imaginary then there is another problem leading to him changing teams.

The drop in production from D-1 to D is the biggest red flag and it is factual. When was the last time an impact player did that without good contextual explanation, like health?

This isn't a matter of a player slipping through the cracks on draft day, like Connor. It is a player whose rating was dropping like a stone because of his play.

 

[gojetsgo]

so is lambert guaranteed to not be a center?

 

[GeorgeJETson]

so is lambert guaranteed to not be a center?

There's no guarantees on anything. But while reading up on him, I think he would project more as a winger than a centre.

(McGroarty seems to project more as a centre from what I have heard/read, but again, no guarantees there either)

 

[Flair Hay]

so is lambert guaranteed to not be a center?

I think a two way third line W that uses his speed to win the neutral zone and contribute to the PK is a fair expectation to him.

Unfortunately it can take until a players mid to late twenties to adapt their game to NHL playoff standards

His future in the NHL will be tied to how quickly he develops a solid defensive game imo

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't really see any of those that you listed having a shot at a top pairing role. But I wouldn't have been opposed to any of then either.

I'm not much of a Lambert fan but I understand taking the risk there. I have been on this org for playing things too safe at times So im not going to get on them for taking a chance on a player who has the tools to be a star. Sure there are a number of red flags but sometimes you juat have to take the chance.

Did you see Pesce as top pair potential when he was taken in the 3rd rd? How about Slavin, taken in the 4th? That is just a quick look at 1 team. Many of the good teams have key Dmen who were never projected to become top pairing players.

I have also been down on them for being too cautious at times. It seems they are out of sync with risk, gambling when they should be safe and being cautious when they should be bold.

If this was a chance that just demanded being taken, then why was he still there at 30?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

we got out of the ltir headache and a 4th for a player that wasn't going to sign here that is very good value...

And then made an off the board pick with that 4th. It could have been put to better use.

It looks like we are still going to have to spend to the cap this season, barring some cap dumps incoming. So that LTIR wasn't really much of a headache.

 

[gojetsgo]

And then made an off the board pick with that 4th. It could have been put to better use.

It looks like we are still going to have to spend to the cap this season, barring some cap dumps incoming. So that LTIR wasn't really much of a headache.

yes it is a headache, it's only useful to teams if the players who go on ltir come back for playoffs...

 

[tbcwpg]

And then made an off the board pick with that 4th. It could have been put to better use.

It looks like we are still going to have to spend to the cap this season, barring some cap dumps incoming. So that LTIR wasn't really much of a headache.

I have to say it's interesting to read in one post that no one thought Slavin had top pairing potential in the 3rd as a justification for taking someone like Chesley with 30th and then read in another that the player the Jets picked in the 4th already has no value.

 

[MardyBum]

Pick a player that was available at 30 who'd you rather have taken, for the negative nancy's in here. Just 1. Your favourite. Then lets see in 3-4 years who is where. It's too easy to just say "oh take one of these 4 guys".

"Oh, don't take Rutger, take Lekkerimaki, or Kemell, or Ohgren, or Ostlund. If any of those players hit I'm right" Dax has it right with his list. I would've taken Kemell over Rutger, and wanted Lambert at 30.

 

[gojetsgo]

I have to say it's interesting to read in one post that no one thought Slavin had top pairing potential in the 3rd as a justification for taking someone like Chesley with 30th and then read in another that the player the Jets picked in the 4th already has no value.

everybody the jets didn't pick = reaches the best case scenario
everybody they did pick = reaches the worst case scenario

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

he's listed at 6'1 183 lb as an 18 year old. he'll probably put on a bit more muscle and fill out naturally as he ages. it seems like he's moreso in the mold of players like wood or anthanasiou, burners on the wing with some size & could put the puck in the net. Wood has a bit more bite/physicality to his game, AA was more puck-skills/stick-handling... i know AA's case he could never be a center b/c of his defensive game and at least early on would cheat for offense. on the wing his game translated a bit better paired with a C a bit more sound defensively, or a group of players that can get him the puck efficiently in transition.

1 place says 6'1, 175 - the other says 6'0, 183. You cherry pick the highest numbers. Guess more like 6'.5" and 180. That is not big at all. Even if he has grown slightly and is 6'1, 183 that is Kyle Connor size, not big.

 

[Mooche]

Pick a player that was available at 30 who'd you rather have taken, for the negative nancy's in here. Just 1. Your favourite. Then lets see in 3-4 years who is where. It's too easy to just say "oh take one of these 4 guys".

"Oh, don't take Rutger, take Lekkerimaki, or Kemell, or Ohgren, or Ostlund. If any of those players hit I'm right" Dax has it right with his list. I would've taken Kemell over Rutger, and wanted Lambert at 30.

Good post.

Some people are expecting to get a top-5 talent or something with one of the last picks in the first round. Show me drafts where the guy at pick #30 didn't have some underlying issues or concerns. These kids aren't finished products to begin with.

Hell, look at the Draft capital the Coyotes gave up to slide to just outside the top ten to pick Geekie. A kid who has major concerns (not here to debate if it can or cannot be fixed) about his skating.

 

[jetsforever]

Probably the next Kucherov

 

[Flair Hay]

I'm impressed with your certainty, but you left out the IMO part.

Now that I've had a chance to look more closely, I see more that reminds me more of early Ehlers than early Burmi. Fast as lightning, quick in transition, skates through defences and... holds on to the puck till he is out of good options. People forget how much flak Ehlers took in his first few years here for his his individualistic play, but now he is a star. That is what development is all about.

Drafting at #30 is always a calculated risk and no one can be certain of the outcome 3-5 years hence. What is known is that well under 50% become true impact players in the NHL and only a tiny percentage become stars.

I'll take my chances with Lambert as compared with any player not named Connor that the Jets 2.0 haven'tdrafted in the latter half of the first round or second round since their inception.

His skating does seem like it is not far off from Ehlers at all. But... Ehlers was a top 10 pick with arguably a top 5 statistical profile in his class.

If he can put up some monster stats in the Dub then we can start to get excited.

To match Ehlers he would have to be pushing two pts/game this coming season (!)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well if Chesley works out, a bunch of other teams will be kicking themselves too. Not just us. But if teams really though he had top pairing potential, he would have been gone far far earlier.

Granted - if we are going to appeal to authority in one direction, we have to accept it in the other too.

But he does have top pair potential. IMO, that is undeniable. But it becomes a matter of how probable is it that he reaches that level. It might be a long shot. OTOH, it is pretty highly likely that he becomes a 2nd pair Dman and personally, I would be happy to accept that. We need top 4 RHD. That need will only get larger over the next few years.

Chesley and Luneau are boom or bang. Lambert is either top 6 or bust.

 

[gojetsgo]

His skating does seem like it is not far off from Ehlers at all. But... Ehlers was a top 10 pick with arguably a top 5 statistical profile in his class.

If he can put up some monster stats in the Dub then we can start to get excited.

To match Ehlers he would have to be pushing two pts/game this coming season (!)

isn't the whl lower scoring than the qmjhl

 

[tbcwpg]

His skating does seem like it is not far off from Ehlers at all. But... Ehlers was a top 10 pick with arguably a top 5 statistical profile in his class.

If he can put up some monster stats in the Dub then we can start to get excited.

To match Ehlers he would have to be pushing two pts/game this coming season (!)

If Lambert was playing in the WHL this season he would've gone top 10, in my view.

 

[Romang67]

Kids usually take a big step forward from D-1 to D. Lambert did the opposite. What more do you need?

So did Aatu Räty. I don't think the Islanders' board was swarmed like this, but I could be wrong.

 

[Ippenator]

So did Aatu Räty. I don't think the Islanders' board was swarmed like this, but I could be wrong.

Räty had covid and other health problems completely ruining his season before his draft. Lambert had no such health problems. I don’t think their situation is very comparable because of that. And anyway Räty was only a 2nd round pick after all. I don’t think players out of the 1st round cause very much of discussions generally.

 

[ps241]

Guys what is the mathematical probabily of an NHL player drafted at #30 OA making it to 200 NHL games? I thought it was about 20%, am I wrong on that?