I don't think anyone who was rumored to be available holds/held nearly the value a player like Nylander or Marner hold. Both those players have already accomplished as good or better production than Hoffman's career season, are under team control for twice as long as Hoffman, and are 7 and 8 years younger. Nylander has shown ability to play center and most people think he'll take over center duties full time next season. Marner has not shown that, but he also had a 69 point season compared to Nylander's 61. Either of those guys is a significantly higher value asset than the people we were rumored to be pursuing that cost a 1st and a prospect. I like our prospect pool a ton, but it's fairly likely that Marner is already better than any of them will ever be and Nylander is currently slightly lower than their ceilings at the moment. Mitch Marner is exactly a year older than Kyrou. At this time last year, he was coming off a 61 point rookie season in the NHL. When he was the same age as Thomas was this year, he put up 116 points in 57 games. Thomas put up 75 points in 49 games. Production is obviously not everything, but I don't know anyone who believes that Thomas had a better draft+1 season than Marner did. At Thomas' current development stage, Nylander was just shy of a point per game player in the AHL. At Kyrou's current age, he put up 45 points in the AHL in 38 games and had 13 points in 22 NHL games. They aren't simply more developed because they are older and further along. They were touted as better prospects prior to the draft, at the draft, and after the draft. They have outperformed our best prospects in their comparable development stages and each have two years of proven NHL production at a level that we're hoping one or two our prospects hit in 2 years.
We're not talking about unproven or average top 6 wingers. We're talking about guys who were elite prospects who have graduated to bonafide top 6 players with top line production. NHL.com has them listed as centers instead of RWs. Among guys listed as C, they where they were 22nd and 34th in scoring. They would be 11th and 17th in scoring among RWs. Obviously these numbers have wiggle room given the NHL's inability to accurately list positions around the league. But my point is that at 20 and 21 years old, they are already producing like top line players, not just top 6 guys. Obviously development/production isn't always linear, but there is zero indication that they won't perform at or above this level in the strong majority of the next 5 seasons. They're the type of top 6 players who would push our roster closer to having 2 top line caliber lines instead of simply an adequate 2nd line.
I strongly disagree that these types of guys are relatively easy to trade for. I legitimately can't think of a recent trade involving a guy under 23 with consecutive 60+ point seasons. The closest is Hall, who was 24 at the time of the trade and had numerous seasons on pace for 60+ but only actually hit 60 in 2 of his 6 seasons prior to the trade.
You misunderstand me. I said it's relatively easy to trade for top 6 wingers, and it is. That's not the same as saying all top 6 wingers are easy or cheap to acquire.
Nylander might be a "top line guy" by points, but he's clearly not by usage or ability to carry a line. He's certainly not playing at that level right now in the playoffs, either. Can he reasonably be expected to do more for the Blues next year than a guy like Simmonds or Hoffman, or the year after that (assuming we had them, or someone similar, for another year on top of that)? I don't see that argument. Nylander's performance as a top 6 center is purely theoretical as well. He hasn't done it, and based upon how he looks now, I don't think the Blues would be comfortable with him being their primary option to hold down that role next year.
Nylander's value far exceeds that of the relatively low hanging fruit largely because of his age, cost, and perceived upside. The Blues don't need any of those things to round out their top six scoring depth for next year, or the year after that. Beyond that, the Blues have internal options that can likely fill (to some reasonable degree) those roster holes for free.
The goal is to round out a flawed roster, not to find something young and fancy at the expense of creating more roster headaches. Hoffman (at 25ish goals and 50ish points), or someone like him, could reasonably be expected to help approximately as much as Nylander over that span at a fraction of the price tag, and without any of the resulting roster complications. Someone like Hoffman is almost always available at the deadline as well...sometimes a number of such players.
I don't think it's a stretch to say it's unlikely that Armstrong is going to be chasing a Nylander type of player this offseason. For my part, I don't think he should either, if the cost includes Parayko. It just doesn't make any sense to me, and I doubt that Armstrong's preferences skew toward youth/upside when addressing significant roster holes in the same way that the average fan's preferences around here do.