Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019

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simon IC

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I don't want any part of Jordan Eberle. ( I have probably set a record for the number of times I have posted that sentence on HF over the years , :D, but it seems we are back to discussing him yet again). As for Parayko, I never thought I would consider trading him, but now I have to admit I am thinking about it. We would have to find a replacement for him though, and we don't have an internal one. A guy like Chris Tanev would be perfect, but that would necessitate yet another trade. So, :dunno:
 

MortiestOfMortys

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Being aggressive is not as important as being smart.

Trading away all of these assets just to get to say you were aggressive makes no sense, and it’s exactly that kind of thinking that got us to this point in the first place. Years of Jarmo and Davidson sending young guys on their way before they could contribute.

Depth is crucial. Even Vegas has depth. Trying to ride a threadbare roster did nothing for us this season, so much so that most people didn’t even realize that we finally have a 70 point center that everyone was so apey about for so long. Noooww it’s a veteran top 6 winger that surely will carry us over the hump.

The reason that Vegas is where they are is because they were smart, and saw untapped potential in guys like Haula (who they also got Tuch for taking), Karlsson, Schmidt, etc, that teams were ok with giving away for free. Marchessault and Reilly, for free. Obviously, being an expansion team is different, teams *had* to give them someone. But that should be our goal: find the guys that are ready to break out in a different role. We did a great job of that with Schenn. Selling off valuable assets and just rolling with a roster full of filler parts is a horrible game plan, and it clearly doesn’t work.
 
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MortiestOfMortys

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They're not the only team though.

Boston has Kevan Miller in their top 4 right now and are a popular pick to go to the cup.

Washington has Michal Kempny in their top 4 and a declining Brooks Orpik as their #5.

Heck, Pittsburgh's defense outside of Letang isn't anything special either.

I do think that a lot of Blues fans are overly conservative when it comes to the defense. If we could sign an adequate veteran for the 2nd or 3rd pairing, losing Parayko would be tolerable.

Edmundson-Pietrangelo
Dunn-Bouwmeester
Gunnarsson-Schmaltz

Isn't the worst thing I've ever seen if it means our offense isn't anemic.


I actually see it as the opposite, I think Parayko has basically stagnated as a player. I don't really see him growing much more at all.

So does that mean their defenses are bad, or perhaps your definition of good defensemen is askew?

Pittsburgh has the Gonchar factor to account for. The fountain of youth for dmen is in Pittsburgh, although it might only last 2-3 seasons.
 

Dbrownss

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They're not the only team though.

Boston has Kevan Miller in their top 4 right now and are a popular pick to go to the cup.

Washington has Michal Kempny in their top 4 and a declining Brooks Orpik as their #5.

Heck, Pittsburgh's defense outside of Letang isn't anything special either.

I do think that a lot of Blues fans are overly conservative when it comes to the defense. If we could sign an adequate veteran for the 2nd or 3rd pairing, losing Parayko would be tolerable.

Edmundson-Pietrangelo
Dunn-Bouwmeester
Gunnarsson-Schmaltz

Isn't the worst thing I've ever seen if it means our offense isn't anemic.


I actually see it as the opposite, I think Parayko has basically stagnated as a player. I don't really see him growing much more at all.
I'm not really trying to argue Parayko is irreplaceable. I'd just rather see how the offseason shakes out first
 

Brian39

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Just to put things in perspective, Parayko is the highest scoring player drafted by the Blues since we took Vladdy and Schwartz in 2010. There are no acceptable internal replacements unless you expect Schmaltz to take a very big step forward next year. Parayko, even in this off year, was still comfortably in the top quarter of dmen in 5v5 scoring. Our depth on the right side of the defense is abysmal, getting rid of Parayko would be a very poor decision, imo.

I'm not at all trying to suggest that Parayko is a bad player, redundant, or easily replaceable. He is none of those things. However, we're talking about trading him for one of two guys who are already back-to-back 60 point NHL players at 20 and 21 years old. Both of those players also check of numerous organizational needs (RH shot, RW, potential C ability, and speed) while Parayko plays a position that we are comparatively deeper in.

Again, we don't have an internal replacement for Parayko, but I honestly believe that our top 4 without Parayko (and no additional acquisition) is better than our top 6 at the moment. Petro, Ed, Dunn and someone else from the organization is a better top 4 D group than Schwartz, Schenn, Tarasenko, Steen and two other guys within the organization as a top 6 forward group (not to mention that the 3rd line would need help too). I think the upgrade to the forward group by getting a Marner or Nylander noticeably outweighs the downgrade to the D group by losing Parayko next season and it accomplishes that while getting 3-4 years younger, obtaining a higher potential ceiling and arguably adding a year or more of team control before UFA.

Beyond what we have internally, I trust that Army can target and acquire a RD to play 19-21 minutes a night without having to break the bank in AAV and/or commit 2+ years of term too many. I think a middle pairing D man to offset the loss of Parayko is an easier thing to acquire than the amount of help we need up front. Parayko logged about 22:30 a night last year, but I view his PP role diminishing moving forward. Petro and Dunn are ahead of him on the PP depth chart and Parayko's PP time reflected that as Dunn ate up some of his PP minutes in the 2nd half of the season. I also think that Bortz can be relied on a little more heavily than he was this year (under 15 minutes per game) and take a little pressure of whoever would replace Parayko. Parayko would need to be 'replaced' by committee with several guys picking up some slack and the end result almost certainly would bring our D down a notch. But we were 3rd in the league in shots allowed and we employ a goalie who seems to thrive in high shot games and struggle in low shot nights. We were 6th in goals against and 24th in goals for. We can afford to take step back in D in order to improve our woefully bad offense.

Again, Parayko shouldn't be getting shopped aggressively for just any upgrade at forward. We should only be including him in conversations for serious, serious talent up front that are under team control for at least as long as Parayko is. He's (at least) a #2 D man on the vast majority of NHL teams and should be valued as such. Due to that, I'll be surprised if he is moved. But if you have a chance to get a young, proven, high end forward that also addresses numerous organizational weaknesses, Parayko should be expendable for that.
 
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LetsGoBooze

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Again, Parayko shouldn't be getting shopped aggressively for just any upgrade at forward. We should only be including him in conversations for serious, serious talent up front that are under team control for at least as long as Parayko is. He's (at least) a #2 D man on the vast majority of NHL teams and should be valued as such. Due to that, i'll be surprised if he is moved. But if you have a chance to get a young, proven, high end forward that also addresses numerous organizational weaknesses, Parayko should be expendable for that.

Thank you for putting my thoughts into words... 100
 

MissouriMook

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... Parayko shouldn't be getting shopped aggressively for just any upgrade at forward. We should only be including him in conversations for serious, serious talent up front that are under team control for at least as long as Parayko is. He's (at least) a #2 D man on the vast majority of NHL teams and should be valued as such. Due to that, I'll be surprised if he is moved. But if you have a chance to get a young, proven, high end forward that also addresses numerous organizational weaknesses, Parayko should be expendable for that.
I agree. Another way to look at this is that Army should be uber-aggressive in approaching trade talks for premium players he is looking to acquire, and that other teams asking for Parayko in return should no longer be a deal killer if the target makes sense to improve the Top 6 forward group. I'd be reluctant to move him for someone that has no hope of playing C, but there are still a few young wingers out there that I would gamble on in a deal involving Parayko.
 

Mike Liut

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Trading Parayko would be a huge mistake. Our upcoming offense talent is much better than our defensive talent. Parayko would leave a huge hole on the top 4. Id rather take a huge run at Taveras and even if that doesn’t materialize, we can trade a smaller package than Parayko for a 2nd line center. Thomas and Kyrou are close and Fabbri will be returning, so our top 9 will already be MUCH better than this past year.
 
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Spektre

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Trading Parayko would be a huge mistake. Our upcoming offense talent is much better than our defensive talent. Parayko would leave a huge hole on the top 4. Id rather take a huge run at Taveras and even if that doesn’t materialize, we can trade a smaller package than Parayko for a 2nd line center. Thomas and Kyrou are close and Fabbri will be returning, so our top 9 will already be MUCH better than this past year.


I would like to hear who you have in mind the Blues can trade for that will be a legitimate 2C, and what you think it'll take to realistically land him.
 

carter333167

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I would like to hear who you have in mind the Blues can trade for that will be a legitimate 2C, and what you think it'll take to realistically land him.

Sign Stas.

If he is a 2C on the Jets, he certainly qualifies as a 2C on the Blues.
 

Spektre

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Sign Stas.

If he is a 2C on the Jets, he certainly qualifies as a 2C on the Blues.


That's not a trade and I'm guessing that ship has sailed. Say Army wants to resign Stastny. He's 32 looking for one last big type contract. Do you want to go 5 years at whatever he's going to cost, 6 million maybe per year? No thanks.
 
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EastonBlues22

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Parayko is a borderline #1 defenseman that is more than capable of anchoring a pairing...one of two such players on the team. We have no one behind him that's capable of filling those shoes, and I seriously question the assumption that Armstrong will be able to adequately replace him via some other means. Besides, if that guy is actually available out there somewhere for relatively cheap, then why isn't our hypothetical trade partner simply getting that guy instead of trading for Parayko?

We have a number of young wingers with top 6 potential, including RH ones and a center, coming up. On top of that, it's relatively easy to trade for top 6 wingers (rental or otherwise)...certainly far easier than trading for centers or well-rounded defensemen that can carry a pairing. Nylander has the edge on development, and perhaps ceiling as well, but there's still infinitely more potential in the organization there than what's behind Parayko.

I suppose it is always interesting to see which way the wind is blowing around here, but I seriously, seriously doubt that Armstrong would balk at parting with one of his top 4 prospects to get a good top 6 winger with some term simply to turn around and trade Parayko for a much less developed/proven top 6 solution. I mean, I can't imagine him even considering the idea.
 

Mike Liut

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I would like to hear who you have in mind the Blues can trade for that will be a legitimate 2C, and what you think it'll take to realistically land him.


Obviously i dont know who’s available, but id package Schmaltz + 2018 1st + Blais + Thompson in the right deal. Good players, but all are expendable for the right piece.

Note: this player would have to have at least 3 years of team control.
 

Spektre

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I don’t base my speculation on how the wind blows :laugh:

Circumstances change on a yearly basis. I was one of the few who thought the smart move was to trade Stastny. I’m not a soothsayer. I just try to see the organization objectively.

Schwartz, Schenn, Tarasenko are the only legitimate top 6 players. One could argue Steen is a top 6 but to me he’s better suited on the 3rd line.

I can’t fathom Army counting on Fabbri after 2 ACL surgeries.

I would love for Thomas and Kyrou to take the 2nd line by storm next year. Objectively, I don’t see it happening for a number of reasons.

All of us can 2nd guess some of Army’s moves but he’s not incompetent. I’m sure he sees the glaring holes in the top 6. We’ll find out soon enough what he decides is the best course for the franchise.
 

simon IC

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After watching the Bruins-Leafs tonight, I am not sold on Nylander or Marner for Parayko. are they both really good? Absolutely! Are they game changers that are worth trading Parayko for? Mmm ... I'm not sure. I would rather have Leon Draisaitl.
 

Brian39

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Parayko is a borderline #1 defenseman that is more than capable of anchoring a pairing...one of two such players on the team. We have no one behind him that's capable of filling those shoes, and I seriously question the assumption that Armstrong will be able to adequately replace him via some other means. Besides, if that guy is actually available out there somewhere for relatively cheap, then why isn't our hypothetical trade partner simply getting that guy instead of trading for Parayko?

We have a number of young wingers with top 6 potential, including RH ones and a center, coming up. On top of that, it's relatively easy to trade for top 6 wingers (rental or otherwise)...certainly far easier than trading for centers or well-rounded defensemen that can carry a pairing. Nylander has the edge on development, and perhaps ceiling as well, but there's still infinitely more potential in the organization there than what's behind Parayko.

I suppose it is always interesting to see which way the wind is blowing around here, but I seriously, seriously doubt that Armstrong would balk at parting with one of his top 4 prospects to get a good top 6 winger with some term simply to turn around and trade Parayko for a much less developed/proven top 6 solution. I mean, I can't imagine him even considering the idea.

I don't think anyone who was rumored to be available holds/held nearly the value a player like Nylander or Marner hold. Both those players have already accomplished as good or better production than Hoffman's career season, are under team control for twice as long as Hoffman, and are 7 and 8 years younger. Nylander has shown ability to play center and most people think he'll take over center duties full time next season. Marner has not shown that, but he also had a 69 point season compared to Nylander's 61. Either of those guys is a significantly higher value asset than the people we were rumored to be pursuing that cost a 1st and a prospect. I like our prospect pool a ton, but it's fairly likely that Marner is already better than any of them will ever be and Nylander is currently slightly lower than their ceilings at the moment. Mitch Marner is exactly a year older than Kyrou. At this time last year, he was coming off a 61 point rookie season in the NHL. When he was the same age as Thomas was this year, he put up 116 points in 57 games. Thomas put up 75 points in 49 games. Production is obviously not everything, but I don't know anyone who believes that Thomas had a better draft+1 season than Marner did. At Thomas' current development stage, Nylander was just shy of a point per game player in the AHL. At Kyrou's current age, he put up 45 points in the AHL in 38 games and had 13 points in 22 NHL games. They aren't simply more developed because they are older and further along. They were touted as better prospects prior to the draft, at the draft, and after the draft. They have outperformed our best prospects in their comparable development stages and each have two years of proven NHL production at a level that we're hoping one or two our prospects hit in 2 years.

We're not talking about unproven or average top 6 wingers. We're talking about guys who were elite prospects who have graduated to bonafide top 6 players with top line production. NHL.com has them listed as centers instead of RWs. Among guys listed as C, they where they were 22nd and 34th in scoring. They would be 11th and 17th in scoring among RWs. Obviously these numbers have wiggle room given the NHL's inability to accurately list positions around the league. But my point is that at 20 and 21 years old, they are already producing like top line players, not just top 6 guys. Obviously development/production isn't always linear, but there is zero indication that they won't perform at or above this level in the strong majority of the next 5 seasons. They're the type of top 6 players who would push our roster closer to having 2 top line caliber lines instead of simply an adequate 2nd line.

I strongly disagree that these types of guys are relatively easy to trade for. I legitimately can't think of a recent trade involving a guy under 23 with consecutive 60+ point seasons. The closest is Hall, who was 24 at the time of the trade and had numerous seasons on pace for 60+ but only actually hit 60 in 2 of his 6 seasons prior to the trade.
 

Brian39

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After watching the Bruins-Leafs tonight, I am not sold on Nylander or Marner for Parayko. are they both really good? Absolutely! Are they game changers that are worth trading Parayko for? Mmm ... I'm not sure. I would rather have Leon Draisaitl.

I really don't like that Draisaitl contract and I'm still a bit nervous about Draisaitl away from McDavid. Only 16 of his 55 even strength points came without McDavid on the ice this year. I realize that he didn't always have quality linemates when he wasn't with McDavid, but I'm worried he's a 60-65 point guy without McDavid. That's not good enough for $8.5 mil if you're giving up a very good asset to get him. I'd need Edmonton to retain a decent chink of salary and I don't see that happening. One of the big positives about targeting Nylander/Marner is that they haven't extended yet and you can (presumably) get them on a market value deal instead of an overpayment like Draisaitl. Nylander doesn't have arbitration rights this year and Marner has another year left on his ELC so you can see how he works in your system before landing on a number. Nylander's playoffs have been a bit underwhelming, but Marner is a point per game player in his young playoff career. I thought they both looked good tonight.

What didn't you like?
 

simon IC

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I really don't like that Draisaitl contract and I'm still a bit nervous about Draisaitl away from McDavid. Only 16 of his 55 even strength points came without McDavid on the ice this year. I realize that he didn't always have quality linemates when he wasn't with McDavid, but I'm worried he's a 60-65 point guy without McDavid. That's not good enough for $8.5 mil if you're giving up a very good asset to get him. I'd need Edmonton to retain a decent chink of salary and I don't see that happening. One of the big positives about targeting Nylander/Marner is that they haven't extended yet and you can (presumably) get them on a market value deal instead of an overpayment like Draisaitl. Nylander doesn't have arbitration rights this year and Marner has another year left on his ELC so you can see how he works in your system before landing on a number. Nylander's playoffs have been a bit underwhelming, but Marner is a point per game player in his young playoff career. I thought they both looked good tonight.

What didn't you like?
I didn't dislike anything. Perhaps it's because I live in the Greater Toronto Area. The media here had me expecting a young Gretzky-Kurri. They were both good, especially Marner. I just wasn't "blown away". I am just not convinced either is worth Parayko.
 

simon IC

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Believe it or not, a player that has impressed me even less than Nylander or Marner in this playoff, is Auston Matthews. Yes, he's talented, but wow, do I find him overrated! He also has this "punk" attitude that I find extremely annoying. I have watched every game of the Leafs Bruins series, and again, where I live there is always a TV somewhere with the Leafs playing. I don't pay as much attention as others (during the regular season), in TO, but can safely say I get more exposure to the Leafs than many others here. I just think the Toronto "big three" is overrated. I think this may have a lot to to do with the Toronto media, and it has filtered down to HF.
 
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EastonBlues22

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I don't think anyone who was rumored to be available holds/held nearly the value a player like Nylander or Marner hold. Both those players have already accomplished as good or better production than Hoffman's career season, are under team control for twice as long as Hoffman, and are 7 and 8 years younger. Nylander has shown ability to play center and most people think he'll take over center duties full time next season. Marner has not shown that, but he also had a 69 point season compared to Nylander's 61. Either of those guys is a significantly higher value asset than the people we were rumored to be pursuing that cost a 1st and a prospect. I like our prospect pool a ton, but it's fairly likely that Marner is already better than any of them will ever be and Nylander is currently slightly lower than their ceilings at the moment. Mitch Marner is exactly a year older than Kyrou. At this time last year, he was coming off a 61 point rookie season in the NHL. When he was the same age as Thomas was this year, he put up 116 points in 57 games. Thomas put up 75 points in 49 games. Production is obviously not everything, but I don't know anyone who believes that Thomas had a better draft+1 season than Marner did. At Thomas' current development stage, Nylander was just shy of a point per game player in the AHL. At Kyrou's current age, he put up 45 points in the AHL in 38 games and had 13 points in 22 NHL games. They aren't simply more developed because they are older and further along. They were touted as better prospects prior to the draft, at the draft, and after the draft. They have outperformed our best prospects in their comparable development stages and each have two years of proven NHL production at a level that we're hoping one or two our prospects hit in 2 years.

We're not talking about unproven or average top 6 wingers. We're talking about guys who were elite prospects who have graduated to bonafide top 6 players with top line production. NHL.com has them listed as centers instead of RWs. Among guys listed as C, they where they were 22nd and 34th in scoring. They would be 11th and 17th in scoring among RWs. Obviously these numbers have wiggle room given the NHL's inability to accurately list positions around the league. But my point is that at 20 and 21 years old, they are already producing like top line players, not just top 6 guys. Obviously development/production isn't always linear, but there is zero indication that they won't perform at or above this level in the strong majority of the next 5 seasons. They're the type of top 6 players who would push our roster closer to having 2 top line caliber lines instead of simply an adequate 2nd line.

I strongly disagree that these types of guys are relatively easy to trade for. I legitimately can't think of a recent trade involving a guy under 23 with consecutive 60+ point seasons. The closest is Hall, who was 24 at the time of the trade and had numerous seasons on pace for 60+ but only actually hit 60 in 2 of his 6 seasons prior to the trade.
You misunderstand me. I said it's relatively easy to trade for top 6 wingers, and it is. That's not the same as saying all top 6 wingers are easy or cheap to acquire.

Nylander might be a "top line guy" by points, but he's clearly not by usage or ability to carry a line. He's certainly not playing at that level right now in the playoffs, either. Can he reasonably be expected to do more for the Blues next year than a guy like Simmonds or Hoffman, or the year after that (assuming we had them, or someone similar, for another year on top of that)? I don't see that argument. Nylander's performance as a top 6 center is purely theoretical as well. He hasn't done it, and based upon how he looks now, I don't think the Blues would be comfortable with him being their primary option to hold down that role next year.

Nylander's value far exceeds that of the relatively low hanging fruit largely because of his age, cost, and perceived upside. The Blues don't need any of those things to round out their top six scoring depth for next year, or the year after that. Beyond that, the Blues have internal options that can likely fill (to some reasonable degree) those roster holes for free.

The goal is to round out a flawed roster, not to find something young and fancy at the expense of creating more roster headaches. Hoffman (at 25ish goals and 50ish points), or someone like him, could reasonably be expected to help approximately as much as Nylander over that span at a fraction of the price tag, and without any of the resulting roster complications. Someone like Hoffman is almost always available at the deadline as well...sometimes a number of such players.

I don't think it's a stretch to say it's unlikely that Armstrong is going to be chasing a Nylander type of player this offseason. For my part, I don't think he should either, if the cost includes Parayko. It just doesn't make any sense to me, and I doubt that Armstrong's preferences skew toward youth/upside when addressing significant roster holes in the same way that the average fan's preferences around here do.
 
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simon IC

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Believe it or not, a player that has impressed me even less than Nylander or Marner in this playoff, is Auston Matthews. Yes, he's talented, but wow, do I find him overrated! He also has this "punk" attitude that I find extremely annoying. I have watched every game of the Leafs Bruins series, and again, where I live there is always a TV somewhere with the Leafs playing. I don't pay as much attention as others in TO, but can safely say I get more exposure to the Leafs than many others here. I just think the Toronto "big three" is overrated. I think this may have a lot to to do with the Toronto media, and it has filtered down to HF.
 

Bluesfan54

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The draft lottery is coming up. IF the Blues get lucky and fall into the top ten--say #8--that should be enough to get a pretty darn good winger in a trade, right? Tiny chance sure, but there's not much probability of some of these other ideas working out either. That has the beauty of fixing a major problem AND keeping all our good young players. One can dream.
 

542365

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The draft lottery is coming up. IF the Blues get lucky and fall into the top ten--say #8--that should be enough to get a pretty darn good winger in a trade, right? Tiny chance sure, but there's not much probability of some of these other ideas working out either. That has the beauty of fixing a major problem AND keeping all our good young players. One can dream.
As far as I'm aware numbers 4-13 are not possible. They only lottery the top 3 picks, so we'll either get one of those or we'll be giving our pick to Philly. If we're lucky enough to get a top 3 pick, I would imagine we would just make the pick as a top 3 pick is likely going to be an impact player during his ELC years, which is insanely valuable. Definitely would open up the possibility of moving the Jets pick for a roster player though.
 
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