Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019

[Dbrownss]

Lol. Never let facts get in the way of a good opinion, I always say

or we could see why he doesn't care about the analytics. In that context, there is nothing wrong with him dismissing them.



Also, skimming though that article again, its doesn't say Boumeester-Parayko is a lock and needs to happen...especially moving forward. Basically its where can we shoehorn Boumeester so he's not a complete drag on his partner. That doesn't mean it's the best defensive pairings.

 

[Spektre]

Perhaps one day the Blues will have as good of a defense core as Vegas. Surely that'll translate into success. Can't win without a great defense. Vegas basically has 6 Lidstroms.


Vegas is yet another example of a team being successful without a crazy good defense. They're the epitome on how to play hockey as a team. The entire team hustles to the puck and is always pressuring. It doesn't take anything close to a great defense to win at hockey as long as the entire team plays the same aggressive style. The talk by most that the Blues can't trade Parayko because there's nobody to replace him seems silly. There's always someone that would replace him.

My opinion is Army should shop Parayko and see what the possibilities are. If Nylander, Keller, or a Marner type player is the return it should be an extremely easy decision. I don't know what teams would be willing to part with but Parayko has to be a coveted asset being RHD. Adam Larsson returned Taylor Hall. It's time for fans to realize this NHL is about scoring more than defense. Defense is nice, and your team has to play a sound game, but to me the forwards are the biggest determining factor in success. Not only are they the scoring aspect, but if they both back check and fore-check aggressively it decides the game in most cases.

If Army trades Parayko this team could have a big turnaround this off-season. That doesn't have to be the only move to bolster the top 6. In a Parayko deal I'd target young RFA types that would not only help the top 6 but be cost effective as well. It just makes too much sense to not see what teams would offer.

 

[EastonBlues22]

or we could see why he doesn't care about the analytics. In that context, there is nothing wrong with him dismissing them.



Also, skimming though that article again, its doesn't say Boumeester-Parayko is a lock and needs to happen...especially moving forward. Basically its where can we shoehorn Boumeester so he's not a complete drag on his partner. That doesn't mean it's the best defensive pairings.

I don't have a subscription to The Athletic, but that article sounds like it is essentially a moot point moving forward based on comments I've read. It seems to be based on Bouwmeester's play last year, and we can reasonably expect that Bouwmeester's play won't be hobbled by injuries in the same way moving forward as it was the entirety of this past season.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't have a subscription to The Athletic, but that article sounds like it is essentially a moot point moving forward based on comments I've read. It seems to be based on Bouwmeester's play last year, and we can reasonably expect that Bouwmeester's play won't be hobbled by injuries in the same way moving forward as it was the entirety of this past season.

Possible but he will be recovering from major hip surgery, while already declining as it is.

I'm not even sure what the argument is at this point. I'm just saying that Yeo isn't going to force Dunn to the 3rd pairing to accommodate Bouwmeester. The evidence used to support the Bouwmeester-Parayko pairing more said that Parayko was the only one capable of carrying Bouwmeester, not that the pairing was golden.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I remember taking statistics in college. We had a whole block of discussion about how the same numbers and stats can be used in different "analytical" ways to basically make the complete polar opposite conclusions depending on which methodology or plotting is used. They can be great, but they can also be deceiving. Although not as fun to tout on a forum, the eye test is probably just about as telling as any graph. That is why sometimes when people use numbers to show how "superior" a player is in (name your category), but they can't muster more than 15 points a year, I prefer to use the eye test. It seems this team is full of players who show a lot of success on paper, but fail to win games. I'd settle for a guy with crappy analytics as long as he can put the puck in the net.

Stats are great for things like adding context, illustrating trends, and figuring out probabilities. They are capable of shedding light on blind spots, and useful for trying to figure out just how significant something actually is. They are invaluable assets for such things.

Anytime you see them being used to argue for the certainty of an absolute position, that should be a warning flag. We can rarely be certain that something is absolute, so any numbers "proving" something like that are probably doing no such thing.

It should also be a warning flag if you see numbers being thrown around by someone who doesn't seem to understand them. Stats are a tool, and like with any tool, there is a vast difference between the results produced with it in the hands of someone skilled and in the hands of someone who has no idea what they are doing.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Possible but he will be recovering from major hip surgery, while already declining as it is.

I'm not even sure what the argument is at this point. I'm just saying that Yeo isn't going to force Dunn to the 3rd pairing to accommodate Bouwmeester. The evidence used to support the Bouwmeester-Parayko pairing more said that Parayko was the only one capable of carrying Bouwmeester, not that the pairing was golden.

October with be 7 months after a surgery with a 4-6 month recovery time. I think we can both agree that there's a vast difference between his likely physical ability then and his physical ability this past season when he was hobbled by a condition that needed major surgery, not to mention whatever aftereffects he had from the fractured ankle.

I'd put the chances of Bouwmeester starting the season on the third pairing at approximately zero, personally.

 

[Dbrownss]

October with be 7 months after a surgery with a 4-6 month recovery time. I think we can both agree that there's a vast difference between his likely physical ability then and his physical ability this past season when he was hobbled by a condition that needed major surgery, not to mention whatever aftereffects he had from the fractured ankle.

I'd put the chances of Bouwmeester starting the season on the third pairing at approximately zero, personally.

Gunnarsson wasn't exactly at full speed when he returned from his hip surgery. It took quite a while before he looked comfortable, I'd expect something similar with Boumeester. Wouldn't be surprised if its amplified by his age too. Boumeester wasnt exactly setting the league on fire prior to any injury as it was.

If I recall, it was reported that it may be possible that he's not even ready to start the season. So that's another possible knock against him.

I can see Schmaltz and Boumeester on the 3rd pairing next year.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Gunnarsson wasn't exactly at full speed when he returned from his hip surgery. It took quite a while before he looked comfortable, I'd expect something similar with Boumeester. Wouldn't be surprised if its amplified by his age too. Boumeester wasnt exactly setting the league on fire prior to any injury as it was.

If I recall, it was reported that it may be possible that he's not even ready to start the season. So that's another possible knock against him.

I can see Schmaltz and Boumeester on the 3rd pairing next year.

I’m completely okay with rolling this next year.

Edmundson-Pietrangelo
Dunn-Parayko
Bouwmeester-Schmaltz
Bortuzzo

When Bortuzzo plays, run JBo-Colt, Dunn-Bortz

 

[The Note in MI]

Gunnarsson wasn't exactly at full speed when he returned from his hip surgery. It took quite a while before he looked comfortable, I'd expect something similar with Boumeester. Wouldn't be surprised if its amplified by his age too. Boumeester wasnt exactly setting the league on fire prior to any injury as it was.

If I recall, it was reported that it may be possible that he's not even ready to start the season. So that's another possible knock against him.

I can see Schmaltz and Boumeester on the 3rd pairing next year.

I’m assuming he has a labral tear. He will fairly comfortably be ready come training camp barring complications. I wouldn’t expect significant difficulties in his recovery nor a dip in his play.

 

[Dbrownss]

I’m assuming he has a labral tear. He will fairly comfortably be ready come training camp barring complications. I wouldn’t expect significant difficulties in his recovery nor a dip in his play.

Even without a dip in his play, he needs to be in a reduced role.

Given where Dunn started at the beginning of the season and how he progressed. I think he's a top 4 dman moving forward

 

[TK 421]

I have a difficult time seeing even a fully healthy Bouwmeester back playing top 4 minutes for this team but I suppose it is possible.

Pietrangelo, Edmundson and Parayko should easily beat him out of any chance at top 3 minutes and I can't see a good reason to reduce Dunn's minutes when he's our most dynamic offensive player on defense. Bo's PK minutes should be roughly equal or less than Dunn's PP minutes so Bo would have to get paired with Parayko at ES to end up top 4. I could easily see him on the 3rd pairing next year with Bortuzzo and used to soak up PK mins to reduce Edmundson's PK workload.

 

[The Note in MI]

Growing tired of the Tavares discussion at this point. It's been going on for entirely too long and we still have two months to wait for the ending. Every team thinks they have a chance to sign him, particularly the Habs and Toronto fans. San Jose seems to come up a lot but that seems like a place I'd avoid as they are getting so old.

I feel like we have as good a chance as any, and it makes the wait even more difficult when we have such a pivotal offseason upcoming.

 

[MU_Beerman]

Unfortunately there is no ozuna sitting there to be plucked after "stanton" spurns st louis

 

[Thallis]

Growing tired of the Tavares discussion at this point. It's been going on for entirely too long and we still have two months to wait for the ending. Every team thinks they have a chance to sign him, particularly the Habs and Toronto fans. San Jose seems to come up a lot but that seems like a place I'd avoid as they are getting so old.

I feel like we have as good a chance as any, and it makes the wait even more difficult when we have such a pivotal offseason upcoming.

Toronto fans think they're going to sign every big name free agent. Honestly I don't see the actual team making a play for Tavares. They'd have to completely reshape their roster just to make it work, and I think management is happy with their current trajectory. I don't know why anyone with options would choose Montreal over anywhere else either. That organization is a dumpster fire, and you'd have to deal with the Montreal taxes and cost of living, so your retirement dollars aren't going as far in other places. Depending on what Army is willing to spend, I'd agree we have some of the best odds at him if he doesn't just pull a Stamkos.

 

[Dbrownss]

Growing tired of the Tavares discussion at this point. It's been going on for entirely too long and we still have two months to wait for the ending. Every team thinks they have a chance to sign him, particularly the Habs and Toronto fans. San Jose seems to come up a lot but that seems like a place I'd avoid as they are getting so old.

I feel like we have as good a chance as any, and it makes the wait even more difficult when we have such a pivotal offseason upcoming.

I just enjoy trolling Montreal fans at this point

 

[Stealth JD]

Honestly, why would any star player would want to sign in Ottawa, Montreal or Toronto if given the choice of anywhere else? Players are under the microscope 24/7/365 by the press and by the fans. Tavares wouldn't be able to take a crap in Montreal without somebody wanting to photograph and write about it or offer him a huge endorsement deal to say he wiped his ass with their brand of toilet paper.

 

[Ranksu]

I’m completely okay with rolling this next year.

Edmundson-Pietrangelo
Dunn-Parayko
Bouwmeester-Schmaltz
Bortuzzo

When Bortuzzo plays, run JBo-Colt, Dunn-Bortz

You are going to be shocked after training camp who is the guy who will step up and mix up our top6.

I kind of dig how nicely he'll be dark horse and comes behind from all.

 

[Stealth JD]

You are going to be shocked after training camp who is the guy who will step up and mix up our top6.

I kind of dig how nicely he'll be dark horse and comes behind from all.

So, who exactly is Mikkola going to beat out? Gunnarsson & Bouwmeester are almost assuredly going to be taking at least one of the LHD roles. Eddy and Dunn have the other top-6 duties on the left side. Parayko & Pietrangelo aren't going anwhere. Bortuzzo & Schmaltz are still in the equation, as may be the other-half of the aforementioned Bouwmarsson tandem. Walman and Rienke will both start in the AHL, but at the very least will have an advantage over Mikkola simply by having experience on the smaller North American rink which Mikkola will almost certainly need to become accustomed to in San Antonio before even dreaming of playing under the bringt lights of the NHL.
I think the absolute earliest that Niko, presuming that's to whom you were referencing, could debut in the NHL would be the trade-deadline next year after some bodies are moved and he's had 50 games to adjust to North American hockey.

 

[Ranksu]

So, who exactly is Mikkola going to beat out? Gunnarsson & Bouwmeester are almost assuredly going to be taking at least one of the LHD roles. Eddy and Dunn have the other top-6 duties on the left side. Parayko & Pietrangelo aren't going anwhere. Bortuzzo & Schmaltz are still in the equation, as may be the other-half of the aforementioned Bouwmarsson tandem. Walman and Rienke will both start in the AHL, but at the very least will have an advantage over Mikkola simply by having experience on the smaller North American rink which Mikkola will almost certainly need to become accustomed to in San Antonio before even dreaming of playing under the bringt lights of the NHL.
I think the absolute earliest that Niko, presuming that's to whom you were referencing, could debut in the NHL would be the trade-deadline next year after some bodies are moved and he's had 50 games to adjust to North American hockey.

You've your point, I agree.

I just see he's mature defenseman who'll light up in right away in NHL level. How physical, aggressive and how good he's at front of own net. Edmundson nasty edge is soft kitten like Allen has been compare to how tough Mikkola play. Mikkola might need time to adjust smaller rink, but I bet he'll mesh right away smaller rink and his gamestyle is going to be better in smaller rink the bigger European rink. How fast and add there long reach and his big frame + nasty edge. Perfect modern time big and mobile stay-at-home D.

Yes yes this is just hype, but how significant Jbo and Gunnar are injured and not talking about how much these will effect their game in future. (game speed etc.) I don't see it impossible to Mikkola crack on NHL starting lineup at October. Nothing to take away from Walman or Reinke, but Mikkola is easily better then both of them. In generally Mikkola is safer dmen how he plays compare to Walman and Reinke.

 

[simon IC]

You've your point, I agree.

I just see he's mature defenseman who'll light up in right away in NHL level. How physical, aggressive and how good he's at front of own net. Edmundson nasty edge is soft kitten like Allen has been compare to how tough Mikkola play. Mikkola might need time to adjust smaller rink, but I bet he'll mesh right away smaller rink and his gamestyle is going to be better in smaller rink the bigger European rink. How fast and add there long reach and his big frame + nasty edge. Perfect modern time big and mobile stay-at-home D.

Yes yes this is just hype, but how significant Jbo and Gunnar are injured and not talking about how much these will effect their game in future. (game speed etc.) I don't see it impossible to Mikkola crack on NHL starting lineup at October. Nothing to take away from Walman or Reinke, but Mikkola is easily better then both of them. In generally Mikkola is safer dmen how he plays compare to Walman and Reinke.

I actually agree with you, in that I would rather see Mikkola on the roster before Walman or Reinke. I think Walman has regressed, and needs more AHL time. Reinke, well I am still scratching my head about that signing. I see least four D ahead of him, including Mikkola. I agree with Stealth, however, that he needs some AHL time to adjust to the NA ice and style of play. I am really excited about Niko too! I hope he can get a call up late next season.

 

[The Note in MI]

Until Mikkola can show me that he can make a tape to tape pass or a stretch pass without whiffing every 5th one, I don’t want him on the NHL team. He has nice skating for his size, he is a great net front defender, but he is far from NHL ready. He needs a year or two in the AHL before I think he can step in. Injuries may hasten that but it will be ahead of his development curve.

 

[Ranksu]

Its good to re-visit here. Book it.

 

[BlueDream]

I still think San Jose is our the toughest competition for him. That's the team I'm worried about. They're not that old, once guys like Thornton, Martin and Ward leave they actually have a fine core that's still in their prime. They also might make it to the WCF again this year so that'll be appealing to Tavares, and also their location is a lot more appealing than Missouri.

Toronto has the forwards already. They need defense. They'd be more wise to wait for Doughty if they're planning on signing a big named FA.

Vegas and Montreal will be in the running and could make strong pitches as well.

So those are the 3 we are probably mainly competing with. But SJ is at the top IMO.

 

[HighNote]

I still think San Jose is our the toughest competition for him. That's the team I'm worried about. They're not that old, once guys like Thornton, Martin and Ward leave they actually have a fine core that's still in their prime. They also might make it to the WCF again this year so that'll be appealing to Tavares, and also their location is a lot more appealing than Missouri.

Toronto has the forwards already. They need defense. They'd be more wise to wait for Doughty if they're planning on signing a big named FA.

Vegas and Montreal will be in the running and could make strong pitches as well.

So those are the 3 we are probably mainly competing with. But SJ is at the top IMO.

I agree with everything except Montreal.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

An Islanders fan in a main board thread said that Tavares and Couture don’t really like each other, going back to Juniors. Wonder if that’s factual and if it’d have any bit of an impact.