Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019

[mw2noobbuster]

I love our slightly dysfunctional but lovely HFBlues family here. Great group of people that have increased my knowledge in the Blues and also in the game of hockey as well.

 

[DatDude44]

Edmundson? I’d be shocked if the pairs weren’t:
Ed-Petro
Dunn-Parayko
Bouwmeester-Schmaltz/Bortz

That’s a very good group of defenseman. The situation at forward is much more concerning to me. Depending on the moves that are made this offseason at the draft and in FA, I could see the Blues being right back in the top handful of “contenders.” Armstrong certainly has his work cut out for him though.

agreed.

It'd be very interesting if we land JT tho....maybe that means we move the wpg pick in a deal for hoffman......all of a sudden we're adding Fabbri, JT, Hoffman and thomas to our top9 in one offseason essentially

 

[execwrite1]

Edmundson? I’d be shocked if the pairs weren’t:
Ed-Petro
Dunn-Parayko
Bouwmeester-Schmaltz/Bortz

That’s a very good group of defenseman. The situation at forward is much more concerning to me. Depending on the moves that are made this offseason at the draft and in FA, I could see the Blues being right back in the top handful of “contenders.” Armstrong certainly has his work cut out for him though.

My only thought there was Parayko and Edmundson make a great second pair and Dunn is better off on the third pair for another year.

They need four more forwards to fill out the top three lines. If Fabbri is healthy, he and Tage Thompson are two of them.

Then you need two from Kyrou, Thomas, Klostin, Sanford, Foley, Stevens, Jaskin, Barbashev, etc. That seems doable.

 

[Brian39]

My only thought there was Parayko and Edmundson make a great second pair and Dunn is better off on the third pair for another year.

They need four more forwards to fill out the top three lines. If Fabbri is healthy, he and Tage Thompson are two of them.

Then you need two from Kyrou, Thomas, Klostin, Sanford, Foley, Stevens, Jaskin, Barbashev, etc. That seems doable.

I'm not willing to pencil in Thompson as a reliable top 9 guy next year. He had a lot of holes in his game and ideally would have spent this past year in the AHL. He was on the NHL roster more out of necessity than because he was actually ready IMO. I'm happy with him getting some call ups due to injuries and I'd love for him to earn a spot at camp, but right now he wouldn't be in my plan for a healthy top 9. I'd put him in your 2nd group of guys who should be battling for the last spot or two.

 

[ManyIdeas]

I have no issues with all 4 of ed, dunn, petro and parayko being the top 4 defensemen next year. If that means we have gunn/jbo on bottom pairing, then so be it. Don't force them into minutes just because they are paid more

 

[Stealth JD]

I'm not quite ready to throw Vince Dunn in as a top-4 defender just yet. He got beaten too easily a few times this year, particularly in the 2nd half. I'm fine with giving him a larger role in the power-play and with offensive-zone faceoffs ala Shattenkirk...but he's not ready by any stretch of the imagination to start handling top-4 DEFENSIVE minutes against the league's best players and lines. Maybe he takes a giant step towards that next season...but you're putting the kid in a bad spot expecting him to replace Bouwmeester or Gunnarsson's defensive minutes.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I have no issues with all 4 of ed, dunn, petro and parayko being the top 4 defensemen next year. If that means we have gunn/jbo on bottom pairing, then so be it. Don't force them into minutes just because they are paid more

I’d still like to balance out our pairs a little better. I’d like to see balanced pairs with an offensive guy and a big, crease-clearing shutdown guy. The offensive guys need to be Pietrangelo, Parayko, and Dunn. That leaves Edmundson, Bortuzzo, Gunnarsson, and Bouwmeester as the shutdown guys. I think we all agree that Eddy is the man, and I’d be happy with him on any pairing really. But those other 3 all have big question marks. I like Bortuzzo a lot, but is he without flaws? No.

I’d like to bring in a guy like John Moore, or, ideally, Ryan Murray to play alongside Petro long-term, and put an end to his partner carousel. That would, unfortunately, give us 5 LHD: Dunn, Eddy, JBow, Gunnar, Moore/Murray/whoever. If we want to do that and move Gunnar and/or J-Bo (hopefully both) at the draft for cheap, I think it would still be worth it. I hope that’s what happens, and we can cycle in Schmaltz and Bortuzzo for that 3RHD spot.

Moore/Murray-Petro
Eddy-Parayko
Dunn-Schmaltz/Bortz

That looks a lot better to me. I think it’s beyond time we cut ties with the dead weight on our roster, including Sobotka and Gunnar. Those guys are filler at best.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I would also potentially be interested in bringing Trevor Van Riemsdyk in from Carolina.

 

[Dbrownss]

I'm not quite ready to throw Vince Dunn in as a top-4 defender just yet. He got beaten too easily a few times this year, particularly in the 2nd half. I'm fine with giving him a larger role in the power-play and with offensive-zone faceoffs ala Shattenkirk...but he's not ready by any stretch of the imagination to start handling top-4 DEFENSIVE minutes against the league's best players and lines. Maybe he takes a giant step towards that next season...but you're putting the kid in a bad spot expecting him to replace Bouwmeester or Gunnarsson's defensive minutes.

I thought this of Ghostisbere till he was paired with Provorov. Not saying Dunn IS a top pairing dman but more times then not, he didn't make a mistake. Yes he was beaten but so was Parayko and Pietrangelo. Dunn has an very high IQ, and he will take what he learned and come back better next year. I remember everyone was ready to throw Edmundson in the trash after the Dallas series....Dunn is "smarter" then Eddy so no way would I reserve the bottom pairing for him next year. He's a top 4 guy moving forward

 

[BlueDream]

Edmundson? I’d be shocked if the pairs weren’t:
Ed-Petro
Dunn-Parayko
Bouwmeester-Schmaltz/Bortz

That’s a very good group of defenseman. The situation at forward is much more concerning to me. Depending on the moves that are made this offseason at the draft and in FA, I could see the Blues being right back in the top handful of “contenders.” Armstrong certainly has his work cut out for him though.

Agreed, I love that defense. Really solid and balanced pairings.

I think Dunn is absolutely ready for the #4 role. I think he'll hit 30 points, and his defensive game will get better (and already isn't bad). That's a sure fire top-4 guy right there. And we will have Jay Bo here for one more year. If we really need a more steady defensive partner for Parayko, Bouw can fill in here and there. Not a big deal.

Once Gunnarsson gets healthy, I'd move him early in the season for a 3rd or whatever draft pick you can get. He will likely just walk anyways and I think we will have adequate depth in the AHL with Walman, Reinke, Mikkola, Butler and probably another vet who can fill in in the NHL.

 

[Stealth JD]

Analytics have shown that Bouwmeester needs to be paired with Parayko. Until JBo is moved, Dunn is 3rd pairing by default.

 

[Brian39]

Analytics have shown that Bouwmeester needs to be paired with Parayko. Until JBo is moved, Dunn is 3rd pairing by default.

WOUld you mind elaborating on that or posting the stats you're talking about?

 

[Stealth JD]

WOUld you mind elaborating on that or posting the stats you're talking about?

Shit. I’m lazy and on my phone, so it won’t be quick, but I believe there as something on the Athletic (Evan Sporer maybe?) that had the glaring statistics. I’ll dig it up when I’m able.

Edit: found it
The Blues' Line: Where does Jay Bouwmeester best fit for St. Louis? The Blues' Line: Where does Jay Bouwmeester best fit for St.

 

[BlueDream]

Well I don't really care about analytics. One player is young and only getting better who can be a wizard with the puck.

One is a declining vet who has had trouble staying healthy in recent years and has no idea what to do with the puck on his stick.

I know which one I want on the 2nd pairing moving forward.

 

[David Dennison]

Bozak would be cheaper than both Steen and Bouw, and that 3 year deal would run out before both of theirs. Bozak is aging, but he still has plenty left in the tank, can contribute better offensively than internal options, and fits the team pretty well. On top of that, an internal replacement is being groomed, so he'd be a stopgap with the option of falling down a line should/when Thomas is ready to replace him.

Obviously, he's behind other options like Tavares, O'Reilly, Johnson, and others, but he's a decent backup option if on the right deal. FWIW I'd go up to 3 years $15 Million or 4 years $18

Its not so much about gas left in the tank as it his best days are behind him. And dont you think we can get the same offensive production (or even more) from our group of youngsters over the next 3 years? A lot of our cap is committed for the next two seasons, committing to Bozak makes it much more difficult to add a big contract thru then.

 

[Stealth JD]

If Tyler Bozak is the Blues’ answer to anything I may become physically ill.

 

[Ranksu]

How you guys have handle that we Blues are Bubble team? Not contender, not playoff team, just Bubble.

 

[The Note]

How you guys have handle that we Blues are Bubble team? Not contender, not playoff team, just Bubble.

Yes, with the team as it stands today it’s a bubble team. But there’s a reasonable expectation the team will be improved in the offseason. Let’s see where they stand after free agency. The team won’t look this way in October.

 

[Thallis]

Its not so much about gas left in the tank as it his best days are behind him. And dont you think we can get the same offensive production (or even more) from our group of youngsters over the next 3 years? A lot of our cap is committed for the next two seasons, committing to Bozak makes it much more difficult to add a big contract thru then.

Longterm, yes. Short term, no. I don't think the youth we saw this season at forward will be better than Bozak is even in 3 years. The question is Thomas and Kyrou, and I'm not willing to bet 2 years of our core's prime on a pair of rookies contributing in a meaningful way. We need a piece to fill the slot today. The clock is ticking to surround Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Pietranglo with enough talent to compete for a cup again. We have more than enough space for a center, between Stastny being gone and the cap likely going up. It's why Tavares is even an option. It's likely we're going to be active in the offseason to unload some of our contracts, too. I don't think we're close enough to the cap to worry about short term contracts right now.

 

[Robb_K]

Longterm, yes. Short term, no. I don't think the youth we saw this season at forward will be better than Bozak is even in 3 years. The question is Thomas and Kyrou, and I'm not willing to bet 2 years of our core's prime on a pair of rookies contributing in a meaningful way. We need a piece to fill the slot today. The clock is ticking to surround Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Pietranglo with enough talent to compete for a cup again. We have more than enough space for a center, between Stastny being gone and the cap likely going up. It's why Tavares is even an option. It's likely we're going to be active in the offseason to unload some of our contracts, too. I don't think we're close enough to the cap to worry about short term contracts right now.

Correct! With Stastny leaving, The Blues need to add 2 Top 6 centres. Bozek can be added and The Blues can still fit in another Top 6 forward (RW), and still play Thomas at centre on Line 3, given that The Cap is going up so much, and Stastny's salary is off the books. Ideally, Sobotka's salary will also be gone, and Gunnarsson will be traded early in the coming season, after showing that he is completely healthy again.

 

[BlueOil]

I think Dunn is absolutely ready for the #4 role. I think he'll hit 30 points, and his defensive game will get better (and already isn't bad). That's a sure fire top-4 guy right there. And we will have Jay Bo here for one more year. If we really need a more steady defensive partner for Parayko, Bouw can fill in here and there. Not a big deal.

offensively, dunn is ready to be a top four. not so much defensively though. i would expect him to improve next year, but i'd say he spends time bouncing between #2 and #3 pairings until he can handle harder minutes defensively.

 

[BlueOil]

How you guys have handle that we Blues are Bubble team? Not contender, not playoff team, just Bubble.

it's good we finally sorted out our identity

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Well I don't really care about analytics. One player is young and only getting better who can be a wizard with the puck.

One is a declining vet who has had trouble staying healthy in recent years and has no idea what to do with the puck on his stick.

I know which one I want on the 2nd pairing moving forward.

Lol. Never let facts get in the way of a good opinion, I always say

 

[BlueDream]

Lol. Never let facts get in the way of a good opinion, I always say

Sure, if you view analytics as facts. They're really not, though. Because they are flawed just like any other opinion.

 

[TruBlu]

I remember taking statistics in college. We had a whole block of discussion about how the same numbers and stats can be used in different "analytical" ways to basically make the complete polar opposite conclusions depending on which methodology or plotting is used. They can be great, but they can also be deceiving. Although not as fun to tout on a forum, the eye test is probably just about as telling as any graph. That is why sometimes when people use numbers to show how "superior" a player is in (name your category), but they can't muster more than 15 points a year, I prefer to use the eye test. It seems this team is full of players who show a lot of success on paper, but fail to win games. I'd settle for a guy with crappy analytics as long as he can put the puck in the net.