Circulartheory
Registered User
Hate
Foligno
Dislike
Goligoski
Neutral/Fine
Zuccarello, Duhaime, Merrill, Fleury, Spurgeon
Like
Kaprizov, Boldy, Hartman, Gustavsson
Love
JEE, Gaudreau, Johansson, Brodin, Middleton
Management Bill Guerin
- Thread starter BuiumSaveUs
- Start date
Foligno
Dislike
Goligoski
Neutral/Fine
Zuccarello, Duhaime, Merrill, Fleury, Spurgeon
Like
Kaprizov, Boldy, Hartman, Gustavsson
Love
JEE, Gaudreau, Johansson, Brodin, Middleton
BagHead
Registered User
Sentiment seems to be driving people's opinions on Foligno right now. Players have been given far worse contracts than a medium term, medium AAV deal for a bottom-6er. Then again, maybe I'll grow to hate it.
Excluding ELCs:
Hate
None
Dislike
Goligoski, Foligno
Neutral/Fine
Spurgeon, Middleton, Zuccarello, Duhaime, Merrill, Fleury
Like
Kaprizov, Boldy, Gaudreau, Brodin, Gustavsson, Hartman, Addison, Dewar
Love
Eriksson Ek, Johansson
Reserving Judgement
Maroon
He’s doing a fine job! The measuring stick for me will be when/if he can keep Kaprizov.
I mean Fleury and Goligoski are done after this season so who cares at this point.
If you look at those who actually have term, Foligno deal is rough, but other than that the cap situation looks good. And even Foligno is overpaid by only like 1M or so (maybe by 2M after couple of years).
Next summer it seems like there's room to add one 6-7M contract, and the summer after that the cap penalties are done and there's ton of cap space.
BuiumSaveUs
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I still think the extensions he handed out before the season have drastically changed my outlook on him. I don’t have a whole lot of confidence that he can build a winner based solely on his asset management. Cap space and expiring contracts are assets. Teams that win cups typically have an expected cap hit of over 100m. Can’t be paying bottom 6 guys 4+ M because you like their swagger
Saga of the Elk
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Hard to believe he's been here four years already.
Also hard to say he's been doing a great job -- even if you grant that the buyouts were needed. More of the team's core parts were added under Fletcher (JEE and Kaprizov) and Fenton (Boldy, Hartman) than Guerin has done so far. Faber and Gus have been good gets, but he also lost Fiala and Dumba. There's obviously time for some of the picks to show up and have an impact, but does a Calder campaign from Wallstedt equate to a Stanley Cup run?
I don't mind adding vets like Maroon and Bogo, or emphasizing Foligno's intangible value. But it still looks like one step forward, one step sideways, one step back, over and over again.
Also hard to say he's been doing a great job -- even if you grant that the buyouts were needed. More of the team's core parts were added under Fletcher (JEE and Kaprizov) and Fenton (Boldy, Hartman) than Guerin has done so far. Faber and Gus have been good gets, but he also lost Fiala and Dumba. There's obviously time for some of the picks to show up and have an impact, but does a Calder campaign from Wallstedt equate to a Stanley Cup run?
I don't mind adding vets like Maroon and Bogo, or emphasizing Foligno's intangible value. But it still looks like one step forward, one step sideways, one step back, over and over again.
Those preseason extensions were still a terrible decision.
The order of it is what upsets me a bit. Hartman was the only one worth gambling on considering a good season would bump him way up, and of course he was the last one to get the offer.
I have less issue with the dollar amounts than some, your leadership group gets paid more, they do more stuff off the ice and with the media, most teams just give those responsibilities to their best players despite them not always having the actual needed leadership traits. I like the theory behind the move, but so far it hasn’t played out great.
Contract years are big motivators, we threw away 3 of those seasons this year for future stability. Makes you wonder if the front office knew about things like a Kap injury before the season and just decided to punt that away.
I think that BG relates to older players more for the simple reason that they are closer to him in age and circumstance(wife/kids). Also, players with a physical edge, again, for the same reason.
I don't think he gets younger players and prospects. I mean, a guy like Faber is easy to like, delivering top 3 minutes on a minimum salary, but in general, i don't think he appreciates young players, or understands that they are the future of the team, not his veterans.
I don't think he gets younger players and prospects. I mean, a guy like Faber is easy to like, delivering top 3 minutes on a minimum salary, but in general, i don't think he appreciates young players, or understands that they are the future of the team, not his veterans.
Ya, but he didn't pick him, and suter was a better player than he ever was, so....
- Dec 10, 2012
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To me it seems like he's trying to build a team that could compete back when he played, and either doesn't realize/understand that the game has changed, or is just intent on proving that that brand of hockey is still superior
Appreciates or understands they’re the future?
Here’s some quotes on Boldy, Rossi, Addison, and Walker:
“Matt is a kid we really believe in,” Guerin said. “It’s early in his career but we just feel that Matt is going to be one of the cornerstones of the organization.”
“They’re in that stage of their life what they do now is really going to affect them not just the upcoming season but as it continues on,” Guerin said. “I think the guys are really determined to get better. They are important. They are extremely important, and we need that. We can’t go out and spend big dollars on free agents. For Marco and Calen to be ready and come in ready to have an impact is really important for us.”
On Walker:
“That he can play,” Guerin said. “I just really like this kid. I saw him (Wednesday) night after the (Red Wings) game. He brings energy. He’s full of energy. He’s excited to be in the game. It’s what a young kid should be like when he’s playing in his first few NHL games. He’s had great composure. His biggest asset is his speed. He’s definitely brought that. He can make some plays. That’s a really nice trait for a young player.
“Even if he’s the odd man out and spends more time in Iowa this year, so be it. He’s done well with his time this year, made a big impact and earned his call-up.”
On Rossi:
“He’s still very important,” Guerin said. “He’s still in the mix. We haven’t forgotten about him. But he’s got to go through the process. It’s not always easy. It doesn’t always go super smooth. You know, that’s OK. Sometimes, you travel down the tough road, it makes you a little stronger, makes you a little better.
——————
I understand the extensions to the veterans may skew the narrative around Guerin, which some may be warranted, but the quotes above (and there are many more like them fyi) don’t scream of a GM ignoring or discarding the importance of young players.
Heck, it could be a fair point that is was Guerin calling out Rossi that gave him some extra motivation to own this past summer.
Edit: And isn’t this the same GM who bought out two veterans (Parise and Suter)? I think I understand your larger point, but I’ll leave it to you to elaborate on, because as is, your post seems to be a bit off the mark.
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You seem to be paying attention to what BG says, rather than what he does.
This guys lie for a living, or at least, don't tell the truth. I don't have a problem with that... that's just the way it is, for all sorts of reasons. Thinking otherwise is naive.
What I have issue with is BG giving significant extensions to mediocre players for multiple years, with NMC's, that will take them into their mid/late 30's. And doing it well before he had to. That's just bad management, IMO. Once again, i will trot out the old Sam Pollock( one of the best GM's ever) maxim, "It's better to trade away a player one year too soon, that a year or two too late."
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Then elaborate for nothing more than the sake of my apparent ignorance. I’m genuinely interested in what you see that I don’t.
Again, I take no issue with potentially poor extensions (in both term and salary) to veterans, but how does this translate to your point of not caring about the prospects?
Did he not hand out a significant extension to Boldy? A kid, whilst also calling him a cornerstone?
Age on its own is not an issue, in fact you want to be older if you are trying to contend. Go through the average roster age of all the cup final teams over the last 3 decades and compare to the league average at the time. Cup winners skew older, playoff teams skew older.
Having said that, being old and being bad is where you get into trouble, but I personally think it’s too early to outright say the team is bad, our older players have actually been most of our best this season.
Having said that, being old and being bad is where you get into trouble, but I personally think it’s too early to outright say the team is bad, our older players have actually been most of our best this season.
- Dec 10, 2012
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The problem is that there hasn't been an above average focus on getting better young players because Guerin is too enamored with the old and declining guys we have.
He made the Zucker trade, which I didn't have any issue with, but Addison clearly wasn't the type of player he liked, and they didn't seem to try all that hard to coach him. But whatever, the value was fine, and we still have Lambos.
He made the Fiala trade, and yeah Faber is good and you hope he can improve, but he traded a 25 year old bona fide first line play driver to get it done. So far the return on that hasn't matched what we gave up.
He traded Kunin for a 2nd.
Besides that? No big moves to acquire any additional draft capital or prospects, we have had several players that could/probably should have been traded in that vein, and he chose to either hang on and let them walk, or extend them. Primarily looking at guys like Zuccarello, Foligno and Dumba. All of those guys could have been traded for futures if he was focused on getting better through youth.
And I will grant it's not a long list, but to be blunt, that's in no small part due to the guys Guerin brings in being low value players. We're looking at guys like Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Marcus Johansson (twice), Ryan Reaves, Pat Maroon, Marc-Andre Fleury, Alex Goligoski, Jon Merrill.
We all know how atrocious the pre-season contracts to Foligno and Zuccarello are, but it probably can't be stressed enough that the overall money and term he gave out to those two is terrible.
And while none of these deals are necessarily harmful on their own, the total sum of everything so far is that we have a prospect pool filled with middle of the lineup players, no true standout top forwards or defensemen. He's made 26 picks in 4 drafts, which is LESS than the number of picks you get by default, so he's not making up for the lack of quality with quantity either. We're just getting none of it, because Guerin is just as focused, if not more, on making sure the roster is filled with guys like Foligno, Maroon, Gaudreau, Zuccarello, Middleton, Merrill...guys that don't move the needle at all either now or in the future.
So we're not trying to win now, obviously, we're also not heavily focused on the future in the way teams like Anaheim (33 picks in the last four drafts), Arizona (36 picks), Chicago (38 picks), Detroit (40 picks) and Buffalo (35 picks) have. Most of these teams knew when their down years were and focused on both quality and quantity of prospects acquired. Meanwhile the Wild have been trying to put together a budget roster to be as competitive as possible during their down years, and like I said, they're not making up for the lack of quality with anymore quantity either. Shooting straight down the middle is only ever going to breed more mediocrity.
He made the Zucker trade, which I didn't have any issue with, but Addison clearly wasn't the type of player he liked, and they didn't seem to try all that hard to coach him. But whatever, the value was fine, and we still have Lambos.
He made the Fiala trade, and yeah Faber is good and you hope he can improve, but he traded a 25 year old bona fide first line play driver to get it done. So far the return on that hasn't matched what we gave up.
He traded Kunin for a 2nd.
Besides that? No big moves to acquire any additional draft capital or prospects, we have had several players that could/probably should have been traded in that vein, and he chose to either hang on and let them walk, or extend them. Primarily looking at guys like Zuccarello, Foligno and Dumba. All of those guys could have been traded for futures if he was focused on getting better through youth.
And I will grant it's not a long list, but to be blunt, that's in no small part due to the guys Guerin brings in being low value players. We're looking at guys like Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Marcus Johansson (twice), Ryan Reaves, Pat Maroon, Marc-Andre Fleury, Alex Goligoski, Jon Merrill.
We all know how atrocious the pre-season contracts to Foligno and Zuccarello are, but it probably can't be stressed enough that the overall money and term he gave out to those two is terrible.
And while none of these deals are necessarily harmful on their own, the total sum of everything so far is that we have a prospect pool filled with middle of the lineup players, no true standout top forwards or defensemen. He's made 26 picks in 4 drafts, which is LESS than the number of picks you get by default, so he's not making up for the lack of quality with quantity either. We're just getting none of it, because Guerin is just as focused, if not more, on making sure the roster is filled with guys like Foligno, Maroon, Gaudreau, Zuccarello, Middleton, Merrill...guys that don't move the needle at all either now or in the future.
So we're not trying to win now, obviously, we're also not heavily focused on the future in the way teams like Anaheim (33 picks in the last four drafts), Arizona (36 picks), Chicago (38 picks), Detroit (40 picks) and Buffalo (35 picks) have. Most of these teams knew when their down years were and focused on both quality and quantity of prospects acquired. Meanwhile the Wild have been trying to put together a budget roster to be as competitive as possible during their down years, and like I said, they're not making up for the lack of quality with anymore quantity either. Shooting straight down the middle is only ever going to breed more mediocrity.
- Dec 10, 2012
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The nature of the league, and sports in general, is that the more good you are, the more bad you will be, and the more bad you are, the more good you will be. That's not always the case, but think about some of the best teams of the last couple decades.
Not everyone can be the Lightning where you're more good than bad for 20 years, and even they had a few bad years where they got Stamkos and Hedman 1oa, and somehow found Kucherov in the 2nd round. Not everyone can be the Knights where you're gifted a Cup contender through the expansion draft so you can use your capital to make those final moves. Generally, if you want to be really good, you have to be really bad. And as the Wild have proven for over 20 years, if you want to try to do both, you're going to be neither.
- Pittsburgh was really bad for a while, they got guys like Crosby, Malkin and Letang, then they were good for a while, they won 3 Cups in a matter of 10 years.
- Chicago was really bad for a while, they got Kane, Toews and Keith, they won 3 Cups in 6 years, then they were bad for a while and landed Bedard, so it's only a matter of time before good years come again.
- Detroit was really good for a while, they won a couple Cups, then they were really bad for a while, now they have a good prospect pool and look like they're going to be good again.
- The Avalanche had some meaningful bad years between 2008 and 2018 where they made the playoffs just three times and lost in the first round all three times, but they also picked up Duchene (who netted them Byram and Girard in the end), Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar during that time, which set them up for a decade of success and one Cup (so far).
Not everyone can be the Lightning where you're more good than bad for 20 years, and even they had a few bad years where they got Stamkos and Hedman 1oa, and somehow found Kucherov in the 2nd round. Not everyone can be the Knights where you're gifted a Cup contender through the expansion draft so you can use your capital to make those final moves. Generally, if you want to be really good, you have to be really bad. And as the Wild have proven for over 20 years, if you want to try to do both, you're going to be neither.
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Just some fun speculation here. I rewatched the Brackett post draft video. “Sometimes need trumps a little more than skill value”.
Anyone think that maybe, just maybe, BG made the Stramel pick, trumping Brackett, due to positional pressure? It’d be nice to have Perreault AND our 2nd rd picks right about now.
Anyone think that maybe, just maybe, BG made the Stramel pick, trumping Brackett, due to positional pressure? It’d be nice to have Perreault AND our 2nd rd picks right about now.
Go through the stats of just about any player, and you'll find that their peak is from 22-26.
Toews and Kane were 21, 24, and 26 yo when they won their Cups
Malkin, Letang, and Crosby 21, 28, 29
Bergeron and Marchand 24 and 26.
Kopitar and Doughty 22-26 for their Cups.
Trottier and Bossy 23-26, Potvin 26-30.
Gretzky, Coffey, Messier between 22-28 with EDM(Messier won with NYR when older)
There are always exceptions, but the vast majority of players prime's are in their early to mid 20's.
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Just some fun speculation here. I rewatched the Brackett post draft video. “Sometimes need trumps a little more than skill value”.
Anyone think that maybe, just maybe, BG made the Stramel pick, trumping Brackett, due to positional pressure? It’d be nice to have Perreault AND our 2nd rd picks right about now.
Then people would be whining we don’t have any center prospects. Lose-lose situation and far too early to tell who will be better. For YEARS, people complained about taking Eriksson Ek over Boeser.
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