Management Bill Guerin

[BagHead]

Fletcher seems like a pretty sharp guy, but in his time in Minnesota and (especially) Philadelphia he hasn't really demonstrated that he knows what a winning hockey team looks like.

Fenton seems to have keen eye for the game and individual players, but zero interpersonal skills. It also didn't sound like he was too interested in dissenting opinions.

Guerin doesn't come off as very book smart but he seems to have ideas about what a "winning team" looks like, even if a lot of that has come across as intangible, cultural stuff. Regardless, you don't need to be the sharpest knife in the drawer if you can attract a bunch of sharper knives to work for you. Remains to be seen if that's the case with the current management group, but I guess time will tell.

So much this.

Im not the most intelligent person I still struggle with basic English (than and then for example is something that has never clicked) because of underlining issues that limit me but yes Im successful enough to have been able to retire last year on my 28th birthday because Ive made enough smart decisions in my life to do so So i myself am a perfect example of not being intelligent but being successful and being able to reap the benefits

Like I said in a previous post Kwesi will be a perfect example of all of this

I know you didn't ask for a lesson or anything, but think of it like this and you'll get it right 90% of the time:

"Then" is sequence based (time): If this happens, then that happens.
"Than" is quantity based (amounts): I have more intelligence than a monkey (most monkeys, anyway).

That's probably not perfect, but can be a rule of thumb. Anyway, just wanted to be helpful.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Being able to retire that early is awesome. As someone who has been getting more and more into investing/retirement (thanks Dave Ramsey), I applaud you and second your thoughts on BG.

Be careful with Dave Ramsey. That's all I'll say regarding that topic. If you would like to discuss further - PM me.

 

[Spurgeon]

Guerin’s tenure has undoubtedly been saved by the performances of Fiala and Kaprizov. Fiala helped make Gaudreau look competent and Kaprizov has elevated Hartman and Zucc’s game. There’s not a single noteworthy acquisition that he’s made. Practically anyone of us could have coasted with this roster and looked semi-competent.

Last offseason:

Buyout Parise, see if Suter is willing to waive NMC to protect same group of players. Otherwise, be content with either Soucy or Dumba going (assuming Soucy is still selected)

Sign Fiala to 4-year $6.5-6.75M contract to get to end of Parise’s dead cap. Should have been the #1 priority last season to get him locked down through the dead cap. Filing for arbitration was f***ing idiotic.

Sign exact same group of FAs except Goli and make same in-season acquisitions (I wouldn’t but doing so for the ease of analysis)

2022-2023 Season:

Zucc - Hartman - Kap
Boldy - Rossi - Fiala
GREEF
Jost - Gaudreau - Duhaime

Brodin - Dumba
Suter - Spurgeon
Kulikov - Addison
Merrill

Talbot
X

Cap Remaining: $850K

Sign very cheap backup or trade one of Jost or Kulikov. Team would also still have Middleton and Dewar as RFAs, although I think our defense would’ve been competent enough that Middleton might not have even been acquired. Regardless, that team would’ve been better last year and in the upcoming years. Trading Zucc the following season would have left enough cap to retain Dumba (as long as he doesn’t get a pay jump).

 

[thestonedkoala]

A lot hinges on this season. If Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs or they stumble hard, I don't see Guerin lasting much longer than another year or two.

 

[MuckOG]

A lot hinges on this season. If Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs or they stumble hard, I don't see Guerin lasting much longer than another year or two.

I disagree. I think Leopold looks as this as a rebuild "on the fly". Guerin hasn't been perfect, but I think he's doing a good job as positioning this team for the future after the dead cap space era.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

A lot hinges on this season. If Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs or they stumble hard, I don't see Guerin lasting much longer than another year or two.

Well, let's say (Heaven Forbid) that Kaprizov sustains an injury that limits him to 25 games, others miss time (as happens) and the team loses focus, tuning out Coach Evason and plummeting to out of the playoff picture. Dumba, Kulikov and Zuccarello are traded at the deadline and the Wild enter the Draft Lottery, where by a stroke of divine intervention they bounce up to the second overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft.

Is that the point when you fire Guerin? Too much instability is disaster for an NHL franchise and there hasn't been any clear misstep to me -- especially considering that ownership had to approve the buyouts. To me, given that timeline -- a difficult financial and personnel intervention that had to happen to give the team flexibility and viability going forward -- he has several years to go.

 

[Bazeek]

Yeah I don't think this season matters one way or the other for Guerin job security. He's probably safe through at least Kaprizov's current deal, barring something really dramatic.

 

[Parax]

A lot hinges on this season. If Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs or they stumble hard, I don't see Guerin lasting much longer than another year or two.

I don't see a single possible feasible way he's fired in the next 4-5 years without something Fenton level catastrophic coming out. How bonkers would it be to give Fletcher as long as he did with all the obviously terrible moves he made then fire Guerin because the buyouts that Leipold certainly approved cost them 1 good forward as a cap casualty while he also built the best prospect pool this team has ever had while also coming off their best regular season in history.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

I don't see Guerin buying out Suter/Parise if he felt like he was on a time clock to succeed. If anything, he created his own 2-3 years of potential struggle by blowing it up. No reason for him to do that if he didn't feel safe to manage the fallout.

ETA: imo

 

[TaLoN]

A lot hinges on this season. If Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs or they stumble hard, I don't see Guerin lasting much longer than another year or two.

I don't see it. The owners know the cap situation is real. Yes, it's self inflicted but it was a now or later type situation they felt like and decided on now. That is commitment to giving him time to navigate as well though IMO.

 

[Wabit]

I don't see it. The owners know the cap situation is real. Yes, it's self inflicted but it was a now or later type situation they felt like and decided on now. That is commitment to giving him time to navigate as well though IMO.

The GM also sold the owners on the buyouts being a positive and make for a better team. Missing the Playoffs is not a better team. The reality will set in after next season when a league min player is a bigger cap hit (and more real money) than it would have been to just keep Parise and/or Suter.

As long as Evason is the head coach GMBG is safe and secure in his job. Evason getting fired is the signal that Guerin's seat is getting warm. A new HC will buy Guerin an extra year or two. So basically, as long as Kaprizov is here he's safe.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I don't see it. The owners know the cap situation is real. Yes, it's self inflicted but it was a now or later type situation they felt like and decided on now. That is commitment to giving him time to navigate as well though IMO.

The owners, but what about the casual fans? The only things a casual fan will understand is that the Wild had to trade Fiala, who was becoming a star in Minnesota...or already is. It's more than likely that Evason will be the fall guy if Minnesota falls flat on their face this year.

The biggest reason I think Guerin may end up getting on the hot seat is his ability to deliver. I don't think Leipold would have bought out both Parise and Suter if Guerin told him he couldn't get to the playoffs due to cap crunches. Either Leipold is one dumb owner or Guerin sold him a boat in the middle of the Arizona desert and is promising a flood. If Guerin fails to deliver, Leipold may think otherwise as fans may tune out the team and express their frustration that Guerin gave up one of the best wingers in Minnesota due to his inability to navigate the cap.

If there has been consistent since Leipold took the team it's that he expects results and playoffs. He got frustrated with Fletcher's one and done and I don't think he'll stand for that as long as he saw the damage Fletcher did in the end.

 

[TaLoN]

Missing the Playoffs is not a better team.

Makes for a better team can mean a lot of things, I think it's clear BG was looking for a better team in the locker room first and foremost.

The owners, but what about the casual fans?

Casual fans don't fire GMs, otherwise Risebrough would never have lasted near as long as he did here.

He got frustrated with Fletcher's one and done and I don't think he'll stand for that as long as he saw the damage Fletcher did in the end.

Fletcher's time got stale. He had an approach that got the team so far, the next GM was supposed to build upon what was there, but then everything shifted so severely, it's clear we're building in a drastically different direction instead.

The upheaval in the time between Fletcher's dismissal and now takes the Fletcher time out of the equation at this point, and now this is just about what is going on now and moving forward. Not on where the team was when Fletcher left.

 

[Parax]

The owners, but what about the casual fans? The only things a casual fan will understand is that the Wild had to trade Fiala, who was becoming a star in Minnesota...or already is. It's more than likely that Evason will be the fall guy if Minnesota falls flat on their face this year.

The biggest reason I think Guerin may end up getting on the hot seat is his ability to deliver. I don't think Leipold would have bought out both Parise and Suter if Guerin told him he couldn't get to the playoffs due to cap crunches. Either Leipold is one dumb owner or Guerin sold him a boat in the middle of the Arizona desert and is promising a flood. If Guerin fails to deliver, Leipold may think otherwise as fans may tune out the team and express their frustration that Guerin gave up one of the best wingers in Minnesota due to his inability to navigate the cap.

If there has been consistent since Leipold took the team it's that he expects results and playoffs. He got frustrated with Fletcher's one and done and I don't think he'll stand for that as long as he saw the damage Fletcher did in the end.

What do casual fans have to do with anything? I was unaware fans get to vote out a GM.

You are also missing the possibility that Geurin sold him on the idea that team was rotten at it's core, so that core needed to be cut out before things could get better, even if it wouldn't mean things get immediately better. I don't really buy that a billionaire businessman absorbed deeply into his team wouldn't understand the potentially negative consequences of those buyouts.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I mean, I know it's fictional, but some of you REALLY need to watch Ted Lasso.

 

[Wabit]

Makes for a better team can mean a lot of things, I think it's clear BG was looking for a better team in the locker room first and foremost.

A better locker room is fine and dandy. A great locker room that misses the Playoffs isn't fine and dandy. Missing the Playoffs directly hurts the owner's pocketbook.

Making the Playoffs and getting that extra revenue from those home games is a big deal moneywise. It's at least $2m just for the fans walking through the gates per game. Even a 6 game, 1st round exit, is worth at least $10m to the organization. 3 x 21k fan sellouts and an average of $160 spent per fan is $10m.

 

[Minnewildsota]

A better locker room is fine and dandy. A great locker room that misses the Playoffs isn't fine and dandy. Missing the Playoffs directly hurts the owner's pocketbook.

Making the Playoffs and getting that extra revenue from those home games is a big deal moneywise. It's at least $2m just for the fans walking through the gates per game. Even a 6 game, 1st round exit, is worth at least $10m to the organization. 3 x 21k fan sellouts and an average of $160 spent per fan is $10m.

Depends, it is short term pain for long term success?

If you don't have the whole room buy into a concept, I don't see that room succeeding very far. If you preach "Team before self" and you have a handful of players that put self before team, the team won't work as a coherent unit and will create rifts in the locker room. Probably much like we saw towards the end of the Suter and Parise era.

 

[TaLoN]

A better locker room is fine and dandy. A great locker room that misses the Playoffs isn't fine and dandy. Missing the Playoffs directly hurts the owner's pocketbook.

Making the Playoffs and getting that extra revenue from those home games is a big deal moneywise. It's at least $2m just for the fans walking through the gates per game. Even a 6 game, 1st round exit, is worth at least $10m to the organization. 3 x 21k fan sellouts and an average of $160 spent per fan is $10m.

Yes, missing the playoffs hurts the pocketbook, but if that was the only concern, there's no way BG could've convinced CL that the buyout was the right way to go. Playoffs was not the only concern here, that much is obvious. We were a playoff team before hand, getting some use out of those cap hits.

Sucking up the cap hit and then not having the players on the ice for it, there's no way CL could be so blind to think that missing the playoffs was going to be a strong possibility as a result.

BG had to have convinced him it was "better in the long run."

 

[thestonedkoala]

Sucking up the cap hit and then not having the players on the ice for it, there's no way CL could be so blind to think that missing the playoffs was going to be a strong possibility as a result.

I mean he hired Fletcher because Fletcher convinced him that a rookie coach (Richards) and a team devoid of talent (Koivu and a bunch of cast offs) could make it back to the playoffs immediately, which is why they avoided a rebuild after he was hired.

As mentioned, there is a possibility that Guerin convinced CL that the reason why Minnesota hasn't moved past the 1st round was due to Parise and Suter and that he could get the team to compete with young, cost effective players. CL gave him some leeway, but is expecting results.

 

[TaLoN]

I mean he hired Fletcher because Fletcher convinced him that a rookie coach (Richards) and a team devoid of talent (Koivu and a bunch of cast offs) could make it back to the playoffs immediately, which is why they avoided a rebuild after he was hired.

Fletcher was fired because he had built the team to a consistent playoff team, but they had plateaued. Nothing to do with anything you said above.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Fletcher was fired because he had built the team to a consistent playoff team, but they had plateaued. Nothing to do with anything you said above.

But Fletcher was hired to take the team to the playoffs immediately. It wasn't until 12-13 with two massive free agent signings did Fletcher actually make the playoffs. Nothing from Leipold has proven otherwise on if he is going to patiently wait for a rebuild.

 

[Parax]

But Fletcher was hired to take the team to the playoffs immediately. It wasn't until 12-13 with two massive free agent signings did Fletcher actually make the playoffs. Nothing from Leipold has proven otherwise on if he is going to patiently wait for a rebuild.

Well I can think of something suggesting he may wait for a rebuild or at least a pivot and retool. Like hiring a GM adamant about building through the draft and not mortgaging the future for a short term boost. And approving the buyout of the two biggest contracts in franchise history knowing the short term strain on the cap.

 

[Webster]

Guerin isn't going anywhere.
I remember Leipold said how thrilled he was when he got Guerin's signature, and how hard he worked to get it done.

Me thinks they've figured out a plan together for the next 5-6 years...

 

[TaLoN]

Draft went well...
Free Agency went about as expected...
Not much room to maneuver, so it's not like his job was on the line... or even remotely close to it this offseason.

The only thing we can judge him on this offseason so far is Flower vs Talbot. (Fiala was already gone prior to the offseason IMO and the return was "ok")

 

[fredrikstad]

A lot hinges on this season. If Minnesota doesn't make the playoffs or they stumble hard, I don't see Guerin lasting much longer than another year or two.

Do you think that Wild Bill, could end up as Buffalo Bill, a couple of years from now?
*wink wink*