Bedard rookie predictions

[Phil Kessels Hot Dog]

Only two players in NHL history have scored 100 points at 18 years old. It'd be cool if he does it, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[blundluntman]

Is this actually true?

McDavid scored higher ppg in both his Draft -1 and Draft -2 seasons. Bedard outscored McDavid in WJC, but McDavid dominated more/longer in his final junior playoffs (49 in 20gp vs 20 in 7gp).

To me it's a saw off at best.

Plus I think the way Bedard dominated vs McDavid is worth considering.

Bedard finds quiet ice and is a better shooter... will that translate in a much more disciplined league? Eventually yes, but recognizing those patterns to find that ice at NHL level may require some study.

On the flip side, so much of McDavid's game came out of generational skating... his game has matured a lot since then, but he burst on the scene so quickly in part because he didn't need to think his way past guys, he could just skate faster.

I think 55-75 points this year is a huge success, maybe 90 if he's healthy the whole season. After that, yeah... I think your top end of 135 is probably achievable, I just think it will take him a little more time to get there... so much of his game is cerebral and he's going to be defended in ways he hasn't experienced to date.

I would say he has if you include the wjc. If not, then you're right, it's a wash. I think Bedard's playoffs are stunted a bit because his team was significantly worse than the Erie Otters roster McDavid played with. He performed very well with what he had but it's hard to say whether he would've maintained that level since they were out in the first round.

It may be true that McDavid's skating helps him create offense in a more reliable fashion than Bedard's approach but I don't think Bedard's weapons will take too long to translate. Crosby isn't the skater McDavid is but his skills translated very quickly to the league. Bedard is somewhat similar to Crosby as far as physique goes so it may be the same for him. He has very good positioning, extremely high iq/anticipation.

I do have pretty high expectations so I think 90 is in play if he stays healthy but there are definitely reasonable questions that will have to be answered if he's going to do so. My thing is that generational players usually hit the ground running so if he's on the same level as a crosby or mcdavid, it's very possible. But we'll just have to see how things play out.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

60-70 pts sounds reasonable.

 

[Paxton Fettel]

106 points, of which 40 goals

 

[dustybreaks]

Undersized in height sure, but he's built like a pro. He's bigger and stronger then Crosby was in his rookie season.

Yeah thats false.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Crosby and Hawerchuck are the only 18 year olds in history to score 100+ points, and one played in the 80s. Highly doubt Bedard hits that.

From what I've seen he's an elite goal scorer but haven't quite seen the playmaking that makes McDavid and Crosby generational. He'll probably be more like Ovechkin in generational goal scoring but not playmaking.

35+40 for 75 points would be an excellent season imo.

 

[Video Nasty]

I think he'll be an outstanding player, eventually.

And yes, we hear about the next Great One almost every year.

In the last 20 years, there has been one.

Do you think he'll be better than McDavid, since he performed at a "higher level" in Junior?

Very, very, unlikely.

Your comment reads like someone who hasn't seen Bedard play, has watched some clips perhaps, and is looking at the whirlwind of hype for lesser players like Lafreniere (and past unremarkable #1s) and using that to justify being super cautious, so my apologies if you're actually well versed in Bedard.

Study his game for yourself, rather than relying on hype and expectations of other people. This isn't the old times where the average person needed to rely on the scouting reports from the 'professionals'.

It's one thing to get sucked up in the hype about the "Next One" when it was a newer idea and the average slob didn't have the kind of access we enjoy now. Now it's pointless to try and attach that kind of label to any player.

Crosby and McDavid have been the only players with more legitimate hype than Bedard since Lindros and as long as one isn't completely unreasonable, they met and surpassed expectations. Bedard is just below them, so expecting him to be better than either is fairly unrealistic. But he certainly has the tools to hit the ground running and put up a rookie season to remember.

Many of the greats have a somewhat slow start during the opening month (if one calls hovering around PPG slow). If he's healthy, we should know if he's successfully making the transition by the time the calendar flips to 2024 (roughly halfway through his rookie campaign). We should know by then if we have been too optimistic (myself) or too pessimistic (imo, many of the answers in this thread).

While my own expectations are 50 goals/105-110 points, anything 90 and above is a huge success. I'll be watching most of his games when possible, so if I see multiple instances of him creating offense throughout the game and it's not translating to points, it'll still be very encouraging.

 

[McShogun99]

Calder Trophy

33 goals
45 assists

 

[Pavels Dog]

98 goals, 258 assists

 

[HugginThePost]

Your comment reads like someone who hasn't seen Bedard play, has watched some clips perhaps, and is looking at the whirlwind of hype for lesser players like Lafreniere (and past unremarkable #1s) and using that to justify being super cautious, so my apologies if you're actually well versed in Bedard.

Study his game for yourself, rather than relying on hype and expectations of other people. This isn't the old times where the average person needed to rely on the scouting reports from the 'professionals'.

It's one thing to get sucked up in the hype about the "Next One" when it was a newer idea and the average slob didn't have the kind of access we enjoy now. Now it's pointless to try and attach that kind of label to any player.

Crosby and McDavid have been the only players with more legitimate hype than Bedard since Lindros and as long as one isn't completely unreasonable, they met and surpassed expectations. Bedard is just below them, so expecting him to be better than either is fairly unrealistic. But he certainly has the tools to hit the ground running and put up a rookie season to remember.

Many of the greats have a somewhat slow start during the opening month (if one calls hovering around PPG slow). If he's healthy, we should know if he's successfully making the transition by the time the calendar flips to 2024 (roughly halfway through his rookie campaign). We should know by then if we have been too optimistic (myself) or too pessimistic (imo, many of the answers in this thread).

While my own expectations are 50 goals/105-110 points, anything 90 and above is a huge success. I'll be watching most of his games when possible, so if I see multiple instances of him creating offense throughout the game and it's not translating to points, it'll still be very encouraging.

I think you're way off on expected points, by a lot.

Having said that, I hope I'm wrong!! We need more players like that in the league.

Be nice for McDavid to have some competition.

Plus, I could actually enjoy watching him play because he's not a bloody Oiler!!

 

[Fantomas]

It's a young man's game. I think about 40 goals, ppg.

 

[Hierso]

68 point
28g
40a
8Pim
6+/-

 

[stator]

What if CHI decide to slide him?

 

[Ianturnedbull]

E ver
L asting
I ntelligence on
T he zone
E ntries

 

[VanillaCoke]

22 G
33 A

 

[LokiDog]

I’d love to see him come in and blow the doors off like Crosby or McDavid or even rookie Matthews, but we’ve been seeing rookies not have that immediate success recently. Bedard feels different, but I’m trying to temper my expectations. I think 60 points is a fair watermark for the hype. I’d love to see 80+.

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

Who gives a fudge

 

[Bombshell11]

Its an easy calculation really.

Bedard had a 17% shooting last year. Goalis avg around .900 in the WHL.
He avg 6.3 shots on goal per game.

Assuming he'll shoot around 250 shots in the NHL this year, NHL goalies avg .910 last year more or less, im just going off the cuff here.

Bedard should be expecting to score around 23-30 goals this year and maybe around 40 assists.

So expect a 55-75 pts Rookie year from Bedard

 

[authentic]

40ish goals and 90ish points. I just think there is no way he won't light it up, the entire play will run through him and he will get all the powerplay time. I could see 30/35-75/80 on the low end and as much as 50-100 would not shock me either but I certainly wouldn't expect it in his rookie year on the Chicago Blackhawks.

Its an easy calculation really.

Bedard had a 17% shooting last year. Goalis avg around .900 in the WHL.
He avg 6.3 shots on goal per game.

Assuming he'll shoot around 250 shots in the NHL this year, NHL goalies avg .910 last year more or less, im just going off the cuff here.

Bedard should be expecting to score around 23-30 goals this year and maybe around 40 assists.

So expect a 55-75 pts Rookie year from Bedard

Much lesser players have scored more goals than that as rookies in lower scoring seasons. This also assumes he doesn't improve from last season at all. He should be constantly improving from here on out.

 

[Bombshell11]

40ish goals and 90ish points. I just think there is no way he won't light it up, the entire play will run through him and he will get all the powerplay time. I could see 30-80 on the low end and as much as 50-10 would not shock me either but I certainly wouldn't expect it in his rookie year on the Chicago Blackhawks.



Much lesser rookies players have scored more goals than that as rookies in lower scoring seasons. This also assumes he doesn't improve from last season at all. He should be constantly improving from here on out.

i looked at franchise players who scored alot, the numbers i provided are fairly accurate. For him to score more goals he'll need to shoot alot more. Only Ovy was shooting like 400-500 shots a year. With a % around 10-12%.

Crosby, McDavid were both around 250 shots.

 

[Zerotonine]

Fantilli will have the better season and win the calder

 

[authentic]

i looked at franchise players who scored alot, the numbers i provided are fairly accurate. For him to score more goals he'll need to shoot alot more. Only Ovy was shooting like 400-500 shots a year. With a % around 10-12%.

Crosby, McDavid were both around 250 shots.

Crosby scored 39 goals as a rookie. Scoring is higher now than it was in 2005-06. Bedard at 17 is a better goal scorer/shooter than Crosby was. Matthews scored 40 goals as a rookie (although he was 19) in a season where scoring was way lower than today and he did it with just over 17 minutes ice time and 2 and a half minutes on the powerplay. I think given the fact he is arguably the best 17 year old goal scorer ever I think 30 goals or under would be a pretty low estimate.

 

[Asinine]

Changed my mind. This guy is generationally short.

I'll say 4 goals and 11 assists because he's 4 feet and 11 inches tall.

 

[Bombshell11]

Crosby scored 39 goals as a rookie. Scoring is higher now than it was in 2005-06. Bedard at 17 is a better goal scorer/shooter than Crosby was. Matthews scored 40 goals as a rookie (although he was 19) in a season where scoring was way lower than today and he did it with just over 17 minutes ice time and 2 and a half minutes on the powerplay. I think given the fact he is arguably the best 17 year old goal scorer ever I think 30 goals or under would be a pretty low estimate.

It has nothing to do with scoring, it has to do with amount of shots on net and goalies save %.

Bedard's shooting % was 17% in the WHL, He managed to shoot 6.3 shot per game... over a regular 82 games season that would equal to 516 shots a season.. that's better than most of Ovechkin's seasons. Even with 516 shots next season at .910 goalie sv% league wide that would equal to 47 goals.

Considering Centers shoot alot less than wingers on avg, 250 shots for Bedard is super realistic. He's going to score around 23 goals and since Chicago wont be leading too many games, opportunities for Empty netters are going to be minimal.

If they play him on the wing as a sniper and make him shoot like ovechkin than its a different story.

 

[Hockeyholic]

More NHL ready (Shot and especially getting open space) than Crosby and McDavid were at 18.

I'll say 45 goals and 27 assists.

Low on assists because not alot of other good scorers on the Hawks.