OT: Bears & NFL Talk 95
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Blackhawkswincup
RIP Fugu
I still can't understsnd how you can take a 5'10" 185lbs QB as the first overall pick. I understand he throws with great anticipation, but Bryce is still 5'10" 185lbs ... with an average arm and only above average mobility. Bryce could still work out, but he'd be a huge outlier. IMO, that's too much of a risk as the #1 overall pick.
Also, this might be the end of Mac Jones. He needs a fresh start and Bill isn't getting younger. I don't think Mac is this bad, but he's clearly lost all confidence.
Sarava
Registered User
The rough part for Panther fans is. If you remember when the trade happened - the word was they wanted CJ Stroud. Well they ended up taking Young, and Stroud is blossoming in to a star for Houston.
And I just read some of the Carolina message board. Talk about a depressed fanbase. As us Chicago fans know too well, the diamond in the rough of a really bad team is rooting on the draft pick and having hope for the future. They don't even have that with the Bears having their pick next year.
Cubs2024wildcard
Registered User
- Apr 29, 2015
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Kurtosis
GHG
Yeah, Bears would be 5-0 with him.
I have friends who work for David Tepper. His specialty is high yeids (junk bonds). It's a tight knit community. The dude is aggressive as hell. Hell, we all are. I bet Tepper wanted Bryce Young and told his Carolina mgmt. directly. I don't see Reich as a coach favoring smaller QBs.
Regardless, the Panthers are 0-5 and might be the worst team in the NFL. Here is the question: if Caleb Williams is the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence ... can the Bears pass him up with the 1st overall pick if let's say Justin throws for 3800 yards / 35 TDs / 15 INTs / 750 yards rushing ... and the Bears win 7 games?
That is an interesting but great dilemma for the Bears. Note: there are no guarantees when evaluating QBs. It's a crap shoot / extremely high standard deviation. However, when QBs are that highly rated coming out of college, (i.e. Lawrence), they usually do very well in the NFL. Williams is 6'1" 215lbs ... just big enough. Great arm and very good mobility. However, trading that #1 pick will net the Bears 3 first round picks ... maybe even a 4th ... perhaps a high 2nd and 3rd round pick instead. That could enable the Bears to draft Harrison and DL in the 1st round next year ... with more high end valuable picks in 2025 and 2026. Of course, Justin will be entering his 4th year in 2024 and Caleb would just be entering his rookie contract. That must also be taken into consideration.
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No Fun Shogun
34-38-61-10-13-15
The only thing that matters in regards to the draft ... the Panthers keep losing.
DisgruntledHawkFan
Blackhawk Down
That would be the greatest single season a Bears QB has ever had. You keep that guy.
Sarava
Registered User
If you come out of this season feeling you have a #1 you can win a Super bowl with, you roll with them (and that could apply to Bagent as well if the season evolves in an unexpected way). Because the Bears already have 2 1sts, and if you can get yet another haul for the #1 - you can fortify this team to no end. The weak lines can be turned in to strengths. And maybe grab Marvin Harrison Jr. to boot.
Easily. If you trade Fields after he puts up those numbers, not only are you pissing of the Bears fans, but you are pissing off the Bears players themselves. All for what....to reset the rookie contract? Not a good enough reason, imo. Bears players want to win, and you're not doing that with a rookie QB like Caleb Williams, at least not a couple of years. Not to mentioned you put Caleb Williams in a tough spot to win over a roster that would still be pissed that Field was traded. It's not impossible, but'll be tough.
If Fields put up those numbers, piteus, then you have to keep Fields. If you trade Fields and his continues to trend upward and Caleb Williams busts.....oh boy. That will not be pretty.
Bottom line: if Fields balls out, he stays. He craps out, then welcome to Chicago Caleb Williams. And no I don't buy that BS from his diva dad about Caleb staying at USC for his senior year.
I like Fields. I believe his upside is massive if he figures out how to throw with anticipation. However, that's a big IF. However, I know one former GM who thinks you can't pass on Caleb Williams ... who is the most like Patick Mahomes since he entered the NFL. I prefer to keep Justin if he develops to throw with anticipation. Note: he still threw for 600+ yards and 8 TDs still lacking that anticipation ... which is kind of amazing.
However, not picking Williams is not as easy as you think. It's a great dilemma for the Bears to have. Williams is a far better prospect than Young.
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Sarava
Registered User
Imagine if the Cardinals are sitting at #2. Do they offer the #2 (Harrison), the Texans 1st and maybe a 3rd first from next year? Or is that too rich? If they do it...that gives you Harrison Jr., 2 more firsts this year, plus 2 1sts and 2 2nds next year.
Or...Arizona might play chicken with the Bears, knowing they do not want to move down further than #2 and miss out on Harrison Jr. Then you decide if you take Harrison Jr. at #1 or not?
No longer listen to anybody who tries to compare a prospect to a proven pro. I do not care if Caleb Williams "who is the most like Patrick Mahomes", he's not Mahomes and likely won't ever reached that level. So that point is irrelevent, to me.
Can Caleb Williams helps the Bears win in 2024? No. Can he help the Bears win in 2025? Probably not. You know who can help the Bears win in 2024 and 2025 and beyond? That is the only thing that matters to me.
If Fields proves to be theguy, then it is easy to pass on Caleb. Caleb Williams is not some generational talent, just another good QB prospect.
Drake Maye is also a good prospect though not in Williams' level. IF what GMs and scouts are correct about Williams, this guy is most like Mahomes since he came out. What did the Bears get for Young who is not nearly the prospect? To go down to 9, the Bears received #9 pick overall, late 2nd, first in 2024, 2nd in 2025, and most importantly, a cost friendly DJ Moore signed for 3 years.
For Caleb Williams, the Bears could be looking at 4 first round picks ... and the 2024 first rounder should be around the Top 10. IF the Bears trade down to #2, another team would definitely look to trade up for Drake Maye.
Let's pray Justin figures it out and the Panthers suck big time. Teams might be willing to sell the farm If so, this rebuild will be far quicker and sustainable.
Poles hasn't been perfect with his execution, but his trade with the Panthers might set up The Bears for a decade ... especially if Fields truly develops what we think he can be. If not, I hope we get a shot at Williams or Maye.
It's not our job to evaluate Caleb Williams. It's Ryan Poles. The only thing I can tell you is that Caleb Williams might be the highest rated QB prospect since Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. They all did / doing well.
You don't know if Williams can help the Bears win in 2024. I don't either. I have no problem keeping Fields if he figures it out. His upside is massive. That said, it's never easy to pass on Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, or Trevor Lawerence. That's my point. It won't be an easy decision ... but a great problem to have if Fields turns out to have a good season (trending that way) ... but not a great one.
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
Fields has thrown for over 300 yards once in his 33 starts. I think that you know who a guy is after 33 starts.
coolhand
Registered User
You know who a guy is after just two seasons in the NFL? Because that's all 33 starts is. I don't think that is true, and QBs are taking longer and longer to develop in the NFL nowadays.
ChiHawks10
Registered User
And a full season of which he had basically zero weapons of any note.
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
Who are guys that were like below average passers over 2 seasons of starts and then just randomly figured it out?
Alex Smith who became like a game manager type in KC?
Drew Brees.. maybe? But he was already putting up good numbers in SD towards the end.
Im having a hard time coming up with players who just randomly went from below average passer to being really good.
Even like Tannehill threw 3900 yards in year 2.
Clownish
Registered User
- Jan 1, 2014
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With a quarterback who can make plays with his legs, it basically wipes 75% of all QB's who played far enough back to be able to view their career arc. Randall Cunningham fits your request and really that's about the only style of QB that is a valid comparison. Jake Plummer also evolved once he went to Denver. Drew Bledsoe? Not even near the same type of QB, so asking if he can become a statue who only relies on hitting route trees and not running at all is an entirely different style that no one would want from Fields anyway. Numbers won't show it, but Vick evolved into a more traditional QB when he was no longer the fastest guy on the field and defenses evolved to cover such a wildly different type of QB.
Point is, you're asking for historical data to compare what was expected of traditional pocket passers (high completion percent) and applying it to someone who in the best case you wouldn't want to be a pocket passer anyway as it would devalue what he offers. He can win a game going 10-25 if he also has a lot of quality rushing attempts and is gashing defenses with a few runs to keep the defense honest. He's never going to be 27-32 350, 3 TD's, 1 INT.
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