rt
Clean Hits on Substack
Jake has never shared an idea. His only form of communication is criticism. He’s got a 100% criticism to post rate. It’s truly 1:1.
Ottawa and Columbus were probably the two pocket deals BA had the entire time.
Kinda wild BA couldn't get one of Hamara/Donovan/Kleven/Lassi/Nordberg/Roger thrown in.
I think BA went to all the players and said this is what we are doing, keeping our young core. Remember at first Chych was the only untouchable player. Then BA waited a year and got rid of Garland/DVO. I think then that Chych said hey wait a minute, why are we trading away young talented friends that BA just told him were part of the core. Chych was probably thinking BA might get rid of Keller/schmaltz/Crouse too which made the rebuild take way longer, along with BA wasting the first year "evaluating players". This might have caused the meeting where BA says, hey if you want out, we will trade you.I dunno Jakey. Maybe he wanted to do the right thing and level with the players. He approached all of them and filled them in on exactly what his plans were to rebuild the roster.
If Chych had decided he was on board with it then none of the last 18 months happens.
Go back to rt’s post where Chych’s agent mentions nothing about other moves affecting his decision and that Chych had talked it over with his family before deciding.I think BA went to all the players and said this is what we are doing, keeping our young core. Remember at first Chych was the only untouchable player. Then BA waited a year and got rid of Garland/DVO. I think then that Chych said hey wait a minute, why are we trading away young talented friends that BA just told him were part of the core. Chych was probably thinking BA might get rid of Keller/schmaltz/Crouse too which made the rebuild take way longer, along with BA wasting the first year "evaluating players". This might have caused the meeting where BA says, hey if you want out, we will trade you.
I think Chych was on board at first, then BA started unloading young players and Chych felt mislead, and said, yes I want out.
It all depends on where Ottawa finishes. If Ottawa begins losing again and finishes in the 10-13 range obvious it gets better, but if they continue winning and makes the playoffs, it's a lot worse.My first impression on the trade was disappointment that we only got 1x1 & 2x2 and not 2x1 and 1x2. Then I started to wonder … how much more valuable is a 13-14 pick versus the expected 25 pick from a top contender. I think @rt was right on with stating BAs ask as two 25OA and one 50OA. So I went off looking for one of those draft valuation charts. After looking at several, I settled on the most recent and most realistic one IMO as the one from Sound of Hockey. Bigger numbers are better. In their chart 1OA gets a 1000. 32OA is down at 133, and they provide the value of every single position. So scoring 25, 25, 50 comes in at a total score of 325. That is what BA was asking for. The Ottawa deal as struck comes in at a notably better 440. That assumes 13-14 this year, 43OA for Washington 2nd next year, and 57OA from Ottawa in 2026. The LA offer using 24OA, 24OA, and 56OA comes in slightly behind Ottawa at 428. And we have heard that LA wanted us to take salary and/or Bjornfot for the 3rd asset and most are saying he is not a mid 2nd round value anymore. So I was being generous giving him a mid 2nd score.
After doing this exercise, it sure seems like BA exceeded his ask … No???
All that said, I am with @Kai Yo T that I wanted more for one of our best players. But it does seem like BA exceeded his ask and did not come up short.
Quality post my friend!My first impression on the trade was disappointment that we only got 1x1 & 2x2 and not 2x1 and 1x2. Then I started to wonder … how much more valuable is a 13-14 pick versus the expected 25 pick from a top contender. I think @rt was right on with stating BAs ask as two 25OA and one 50OA. So I went off looking for one of those draft valuation charts. After looking at several, I settled on the most recent and most realistic one IMO as the one from Sound of Hockey. Bigger numbers are better. In their chart 1OA gets a 1000. 32OA is down at 133, and they provide the value of every single position. So scoring 25, 25, 50 comes in at a total score of 325. That is what BA was asking for. The Ottawa deal as struck comes in at a notably better 440. That assumes 13-14 this year, 43OA for Washington 2nd next year, and 57OA from Ottawa in 2026. The LA offer using 24OA, 24OA, and 56OA comes in slightly behind Ottawa at 428. And we have heard that LA wanted us to take salary and/or Bjornfot for the 3rd asset and most are saying he is not a mid 2nd round value anymore. So I was being generous giving him a mid 2nd score.
After doing this exercise, it sure seems like BA exceeded his ask … No???
All that said, I am with @Kai Yo T that I wanted more for one of our best players. But it does seem like BA exceeded his ask and did not come up short.
Exactly. We need to see where this pick lands AND see what BA is able to secure pick-wise with the extra budget.It all depends on where Ottawa finishes. If Ottawa begins losing again and finishes in the 10-13 range obvious it gets better, but if they continue winning and makes the playoffs, it's a lot worse.
I wasn’t fooled, the value always comes out in the end, that’s why I don’t obsess.Sure, but you can't fool other GMs, they know the player and the market value. There were a few article written about Chych's value being less than BA was asking, I always thought that as well, and it took forever to trade him. BA was kidding himself, he didn't fool anybody else other than the fan base on this forum.
Are you just now realizing these guys are full of shit?I criticize Bill and the budget. Bill talks tough but at the end of the day he really is a salesman, I just don't buy it all. I still think he is doing well but don't tell us for well over a year that are you are gonna get a dollar for Chychrun, then get 3 quarters, and claim the ask was met. And claim to weaponize cap space while slashing on ice budget. Just stop talking.
So what in the end is the difference?I am sure a similar offer was available over the last 18 months. I think BA finally figured out he couldn't get any more for Chych and took market value which was set long ago.
The other thing no one seems to consider is that by not getting players, the tank is on full steam ahead. I think we can read a big “we want Bedard” into the Chych move.So BA talked about buying players with picks.
Geekie is a player we “bought”.
Cost was a big piece of Dvorak return, our 2nd rounder, and the pick we acquired for Adin Hill.
That’s the only way Chicago can justify the returns they received for Kane and DebrincatThe other thing no one seems to consider is that by not getting players, the tank is on full steam ahead. I think we can read a big “we want Besard” into the Chych move.
While that’s the rub in this whole thing, I think you may be taking the fact that BA was a scout and believes in scouting as the answer, too lightly.I don't buy this at all. BA would have loved to get a good prospect but nobody would give one as part of the deal. A prospect even after one year of development is further along than another 2nd round pick, and one year older, even id they are not part of "BAs magical scouting and development staff" that is apparently all word just because. Now we are relying on the Senators tanking but only down to the 6th-8th pick for this trade to be better than expected.
Yep and our friend Cobra427 of all people should be thinking that’s a matter of when, not if.Fsir statement. That’s why it’s easier to get draft picks instead of prospects. Look at how Canuck fans feel now though about the main asset they gave up for OEL. At the time they were claiming steal. I think Sens fans were crapping their pants last night when Chychrun laid on the i e fora few minutes after a hit. If Chychrun gets hurt they will be screaming.
Time will tell if it’s a fleecing, as you well know.I really think the ask for Chych was fine, but because of the cap situation for most teams, and BA in a situation where he could not take money back created the problem. That became apparent when the LA deal fell through. BA had no leverage. Ottawa had cap space and had BA bent over. The alarming part is why couldn't BA take money back at the most important time of the rebuild. Of course BA is trying to spin it like that was the plan. Listen to what Ottawa's GM is saying about acquiring Chych. That was an absolute fleecing.
I dunno TL, if he never approaches him, maybe Chych never even considers going elsewhere?I dunno Jakey. Maybe he wanted to do the right thing and level with the players. He approached all of them and filled them in on exactly what his plans were to rebuild the roster.
If Chych had decided he was on board with it then none of the last 18 months happens.
At this point one player doesn’t do much for us, so not sure we’d be over the moon… as you say.Ottawa didn't lose one roster player or one prospect. Ottawa is over the moon, like we would be if the shoe was on the other foot.
Good input.I don’t thin BA could even hope of making that type of contract proposal. I think Ba and management got concerned when guys like Nurse and Seth Jones started getting those types of deals. Toss in Chychrun’s injury history and i think we were trying to be proactive.