Confirmed with Link: [AZ/OTT] Jakob Chychrun in exchange for a conditional first in ’23, a conditional second in ’24, & a 2nd in ‘26

[Nowotny]

Au contraire, Tucker has a great feel for hockey.

I disagree with Tucker on Ukraine but he is one of the few remaining independent journalists.He had a great interview with Theo Fleury and Don Cherry some time ago

 

[Jakey53]

Ottawa's pick currently sits 13th.

Can you guess where Boston, Edmonton, Toronto and Carolina will pick compared to Ottawa? Does an average of 27th sound right?

We paid 27th, 34th, and 45th overall to get the 11th overall last year.

That’s a late first, an extremely early 2nd and a mid-2nd. Or if you want to simplify, “a 1st and two 2nds”. We got an additional two 2nds from Ottawa.


Securing brokers for multi-year deals is more costly.

I understand, but there was more to it than their late first. I assume BA couldn't take money back is why the deals feel through. The way it looks and sounds, Ottawa was the only chance to make a deal with no money coming back. Remember LA? CBJ? Why do you think those deals feel thru? You sincerely can't be happy with this trade.

 

[hbk]

Look, I understand a pick in the teens is nice, but again, you are missing the point. It's the total package what pisses me off. I don't care about the seconds we got, that should have been the third piece we got. We missed the second piece all together.

The Ask was 2x1sts (25-32 range) and a 2nd.

The Return was 1x1st (10-15 range) and 2x2nds.

If you factor in what it cost to move up into a pick in the 10-15 range last year (1x1 (25-32 range) + 2x2nds that makes this trade equivalent to: 1x1st (25-32 range) and 4x2nds.

Is that rationalization. Absolutely! That's why I am disappointed in the return. I have to think about it to understand the organizations perspective.

My top 15 in the draft (off the top of my head):
1) Bedard
2) Fantilli
3) Michkov
4) Carlsson
5) Bensen
6) Smith
7) Yager
8) Dvorsky
9) Reindbacher
10) Sale
11) Barlow
12) Moore
13) Sandin-Pellikka
14) Ritchie
15) Danielson
16) Gauthier
17) Heidt
18) Wood
19) Leonard
20) Cristall

I really like the names in that 10-15 range. Barlow for example is likely a 50 goal scorer in the OHL this year.

 

[Nowotny]

I disagree with Tucker on Ukraine but he is one of the few remaining independent journalists.He had a great interview with Theo Fleury some time ago.

 

[PainForShane]

Look, I understand a pick in the teens is nice, but again, you are missing the point. It's the total package what pisses me off. I don't care about the seconds we got, that should have been the third piece we got. We missed the second piece all together.

No Jakey, YOU are missing the point. Bill's ask this entire time has been 2 1sts and a 2nd. We've all been assuming, correctly I think, Chych would be going to a playoff team so those firsts would be around 20 OA at the absolute highest. Now we have a pick that I think is going to be around 10OA, 10-15 at the worst, I think. In a very deep draft. Could the pick be worse? Sure. Ottawa could score 6 goals a game and end up winning the cup, then we're picking 32. Different topic tho (maybe I'll start a new thread).

***

If you remember the Geekie trade, we traded a 27th, 34th, and 45th just so we could pick Geekie at 11. That's basically 2 late firsts and a 2nd. If we'd traded with Boston and we got 2 firsts and a second -- which btw is what Bill was asking for the whole time -- that one top asset from the Sens is probably worth that much. And then we got 2 additional seconds.

Bitch all you want about seemingly becoming a poverty franchise again... but you're complaining about the package we got? Our package will likely higher than what everyone said was too high of an ask, Bill got his ask and then some.

Now the question is who can he turn that magic bean into, but that's a different discussion. But the package is more than he asked for, because of how high that first rounder is expected to be (assuming the Sens finish the season where they are now)

 

[RABBIT]

I’m not gonna be convinced we got enough for Chychrun because he’s an outstanding young player on a great contract, and a future captain.

That said, my opinion can change in a couple years depending on what those draft picks turn into. Right now, I think we got under value. Proven player for futures.

 

[hbk]

I’m not gonna be convinced we got enough for Chychrun because he’s an outstanding young player on a great contract, and a future captain.

That said, my opinion can change in a couple years depending on what those draft picks turn into. Right now, I think we got under value. Proven player for futures.

I think we had 2 things to look forward to this year. Draft lottery and the return for Chychrun.

One of those is off the list and its deflating I think because reality is setting in just how far this franchise has to go in the rebuild before we are remotely competitive again.

 

[Mosby]

Do I have these 4 scenarios correct? Missing anything?

Scenario 1 — Ottawa does not qualify for 2023 playoffs & does not win top-5 lottery pick in 2023 draft, OR Ottawa qualifies for 2023 playoffs BUT does not advance to Eastern Final

Arizona receives:
2023 1st (6 to 16th overall)
2024 2nd (Washington’s)
2026 2nd

Scenario 2 — Ottawa does not qualify for 2023 playoffs & wins a top-5 lottery pick in 2023 draft

Arizona receives:
2024 1st (unprotected)
2024 2nd (Washington’s)
2026 2nd

Scenario 3 — Ottawa qualifies for 2023 playoffs & advances to Eastern Final

Arizona receives:
2023 1st
2024 1st (top-10 protected)
2026 2nd

Scenario 4 — Ottawa qualifies for 2023 playoffs & advances to Eastern Final, BUT 2024 1st lands within top-10 picks

Arizona receives:
2023 1st
2025 1st (unprotected)
2026 2nd

 

[MIGs Dog]

because reality is setting in just how far this franchise has to go

Yep. No easy or quick fixes. Too early to slam BA. Need to let the master plan play out.

 

[AZviaNJ]

Anyone have one of those fancy strength of schedule/P%/remaining games thingy maggigies? How’s Ottawa liokin’

Nothing fancy but:
Ottawa has 22 games remaining (as of Mar 2)
13 against current playoff teams
10 against current EC playoff teams (5 home)

Kind of average schedule. The chances of Ottawa getting into the playoffs are probably the same as the pick getting into the top 10…..both doubtful.

 

[rt]

I understand, but there was more to it than their late first.

You say you understand but then you say “late” first. I’m not sure.

I assume BA couldn't take money back is why the deals feel through. The way it looks and sounds, Ottawa was the only chance to make a deal with no money coming back.

BA said he had deals for multiple 1sts that he didn’t think were as good as this one. He might mean Carolina. If so, I tend to agree with him. Carolina wouldn’t have needed to move money.

Remember LA? CBJ? Why do you think those deals feel thru?

LA fell through because of money. Yes. Columbus could not have been money. Columbus was likely because of the player refusing to confirm for them that he’d be happy there.

You sincerely can't be happy with this trade.

No, I’m not. Not yet. I’ll need to see who they pick in the 1st and how they use all they future draft capital.

Losing OEL for dumps and Garland for some unnamed pick was tough at first. Now we have Guenther.

A pick that could be anywhere from 8th to 18th isn’t appealing at this moment. But once there’s a name on it, we might all be thrilled. We just can’t know yet.

 

[Jakey53]

The Ask was 2x1sts (25-32 range) and a 2nd.

The Return was 1x1st (10-15 range) and 2x2nds.

If you factor in what it cost to move up into a pick in the 10-15 range last year (1x1 (25-32 range) + 2x2nds that makes this trade equivalent to: 1x1st (25-32 range) and 4x2nds.

Is that rationalization. Absolutely! That's why I am disappointed in the return. I have to think about it to understand the organizations perspective.

My top 15 in the draft (off the top of my head):
1) Bedard
2) Fantilli
3) Michkov
4) Carlsson
5) Bensen
6) Smith
7) Yager
8) Dvorsky
9) Reindbacher
10) Sale
11) Barlow
12) Moore
13) Sandin-Pellikka
14) Ritchie
15) Danielson
16) Gauthier
17) Heidt
18) Wood
19) Leonard
20) Cristall

I really like the names in that 10-15 range. Barlow for example is likely a 50 goal scorer in the OHL this year.

No, the ask was two firsts. You guys came up with that when Chych said he wanted to go to a team who will be in the playoffs. I always wanted a pick in the teens and I have said many times that a team like the Sabres, Ottawa, LA and CBJ make sense because they are close to being a playoff team for years to come. Anyway, I'm tired of venting, and I'm sure most are tired of me venting. Hell I should be use to it, being a Coyote fan and all.

 

[hbk]

Yep. No easy or quick fixes. Too early to slam BA. Need to let the master plan play out.

I think it's fair to judge him on the players he selects with the Ottawa 1st this year. His signoff on a return that optically doesn't match his ask because of where they believe this pick will land and who they will draft at that position bears watching and potentially judgement.

 

[rt]

No Jakey, YOU are missing the point. Bill's ask this entire time has been 2 1sts and a 2nd. We've all been assuming, correctly I think, Chych would be going to a playoff team so those firsts would be around 20 OA at the absolute highest. Now we have a pick that I think is going to be around 10OA, 10-15 at the worst, I think. In a very deep draft. Could the pick be worse? Sure. Ottawa could score 6 goals a game and end up winning the cup, then we're picking 32. Different topic tho (maybe I'll start a new thread).

***

If you remember the Geekie trade, we traded a 27th, 34th, and 45th just so we could pick Geekie at 11. That's basically 2 late firsts and a 2nd. If we'd traded with Boston and we got 2 firsts and a second -- which btw is what Bill was asking for the whole time -- that one top asset from the Sens is probably worth that much. And then we got 2 additional seconds.

Bitch all you want about seemingly becoming a poverty franchise again... but you're complaining about the package we got? Our package will likely higher than what everyone said was too high of an ask, Bill got his ask and then some.

Now the question is who can he turn that magic bean into, but that's a different discussion. But the package is more than he asked for, because of how high that first rounder is expected to be (assuming the Sens finish the season where they are now)

This is a better way of saying what I was getting at.

 

[hbk]

No, the ask was two firsts. You guys came up with that when Chych said he wanted to go to a team who will be in the playoffs. I always wanted a pick in the teens and I have said many times that a team like the Sabres, Ottawa, LA and CBJ make sense because they are close to being a playoff team for years to come. Anyway, I'm tired of venting, and I'm sure most are tired of me venting. Hell I should be use to it, being a Coyote fan and all.

check the game notes. Go back through the 88 threads and rt especially was very clear on expectations. Your expectations differed. That's fine. That's your opinion which you are entitled to have.

 

[Jakey53]

No Jakey, YOU are missing the point. Bill's ask this entire time has been 2 1sts and a 2nd. We've all been assuming, correctly I think, Chych would be going to a playoff team so those firsts would be around 20 OA at the absolute highest. Now we have a pick that I think is going to be around 10OA, 10-15 at the worst, I think. In a very deep draft. Could the pick be worse? Sure. Ottawa could score 6 goals a game and end up winning the cup, then we're picking 32. Different topic tho (maybe I'll start a new thread).

***

If you remember the Geekie trade, we traded a 27th, 34th, and 45th just so we could pick Geekie at 11. That's basically 2 late firsts and a 2nd. If we'd traded with Boston and we got 2 firsts and a second -- which btw is what Bill was asking for the whole time -- that one top asset from the Sens is probably worth that much. And then we got 2 additional seconds.

Bitch all you want about seemingly becoming a poverty franchise again... but you're complaining about the package we got? Our package will likely higher than what everyone said was too high of an ask, Bill got his ask and then some.

Now the question is who can he turn that magic bean into, but that's a different discussion. But the package is more than he asked for, because of how high that first rounder is expected to be (assuming the Sens finish the season where they are now)

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[rt]

Keep telling yourself that.

That’s not how we talk. .

 

[PainForShane]

I’m not gonna be convinced we got enough for Chychrun because he’s an outstanding young player on a great contract, and a future captain.

That said, my opinion can change in a couple years depending on what those draft picks turn into. Right now, I think we got under value. Proven player for futures.

For what it's worth I agree with you, I would've never traded Chychrun, he's too good. But, a year or two ago a lot of us wanted him gone because injuries. Not me, but many ppl did.

Anyway that does not change the fact (and yes, it is a fact) that Bill got more than his ask of draft capital was reasonably expected to be. And yet... who knows how this trade will turn out, we'll see in 10 years depending who we draft

 

[Mosby]

No wonder this deal took so long to come together. It took 30 minutes at my desk with a pen and paper to wrap my head around all the conditions.

 

[rt]

Do I have these 4 scenarios correct? Missing anything?

Scenario 1 — Ottawa does not qualify for 2023 playoffs & does not win top-5 lottery pick in 2023 draft

Arizona receives:
2023 1st (6th overall or later)
2024 2nd (Washington’s)
2026 2nd

Scenario 2 — Ottawa does not qualify for 2023 playoffs & wins a top-5 lottery pick in 2023 draft

Arizona receives:
2024 1st (unprotected)
2024 2nd (Washington’s)
2026 2nd

Scenario 3 — Ottawa qualifies for 2023 playoffs & advances to Eastern Final

Arizona receives:
2023 1st
2024 1st (top-10 protected)
2026 2nd

Scenario 4 — Ottawa qualifies for 2023 playoffs & advances to Eastern Final, BUT 2024 1st lands within top-10 picks

Arizona receives:
2023 1st
2025 1st (unprotected)
2026 2nd

Yes. But one more clarification would be on the first pick in the first scenario, it’s pick 6-16th. Not later than 16th.

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

I wanted to sleep on this before I commented because my initial reaction was disappointment. I've generally maintained that feeling but, if the pick this year ends up high enough to be great without hitting top 5, or we end up with 2 1sts because Ottawa got the the ECF I'll be happy with it. A middling 1st and 2 2nds is pretty bleh though. It's not far from the ask, but far enough I'm disappointed.

 

[PainForShane]

Keep telling yourself that.

It's basic arithmetic Jakey. Transitive property if you want the actual name for it

 

[GhostofYotesFan47]

Yes. But one more clarification would be on the first pick in the first scenario, it’s pick 6-16th. Not later than 16th.

Wait, where did you get that? I haven't seen that yet. That changes things.

Nvm, I'm dumb.

 

[Prestigeworldwide]

Nothing fancy but:
Ottawa has 22 games remaining (as of Mar 2)
13 against current playoff teams
10 against current EC playoff teams (5 home)

Kind of average schedule. The chances of Ottawa getting into the playoffs are probably the same as the pick getting into the top 10…..both doubtful.

Good point
Tankathon has Ottawa with the 5th hardest schedule remaining.

NHL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NHL teams based on the points per game of the opponents left on their schedule.

www.tankathon.com

 

[PainForShane]

Wait, where did you get that? I haven't seen that yet. That changes things.

If you miss the playoffs you pick in the top half of the first round (because the playoff teams pick in the bottom half)