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Prospect Info: Avs draft F Calum Ritchie (2023 #27 overall)

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I think people forget how much hype there was on both Jost and Newhook... especially Newhook. Newhook was for sure an elite skating #2C and was for sure not going the route of Jost.

Each player is different and with Ritchie... style of play is probably his most critical issue. The tools and frame are all there. We just have to see him engage consistently and be willing to live in the dirty areas. If he does that, he'll be fine and end up a very good NHL player. If he doesn't, he's the type that teams sour on after a few years and catches on somewhere else as a filler guy that you never really want to commit to.

On progression... the recent, most successful example of development going right for a guy is Wyatt Johnston. He was drafted in 2021, spent his +1 season in the OHL and utterly dominated the league (probably the best single season since McDavid). His +2 he was a rookie in a majority 3rd line role and had a really good impact... but not ready for a 2C role. His +3, he still kind of plays a 3C role. Dallas is a fairly heavy 4 line rotation team with 3 lines typically rolling in that 13-14 minute EV range, but Johnston's like is the most likely to get trimmed. So a quasi 2C role, but still easier matchups than the Seguin and Hintz lines. Next season, he likely takes over the 2C duties fully.

So that's basically his +4 on a very good/near perfect projection to getting to that high impact, able to take on the matchups and tilt the ice sort of role. For Ritchie to hit that, we are 3 years away. I think that is the real debate. Assume everything goes well, are you willing to wait 2 more full seasons before finally having the issue solved internally and 26-27 being that season where things really are ready to roll?
 
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henchman21 said:
I think people forget how much hype there was on both Jost and Newhook... especially Newhook. Newhook was for sure an elite skating #2C and was for sure not going the route of Jost.

Each player is different and with Ritchie... style of play is probably his most critical issue. The tools and frame are all there. We just have to see him engage consistently and be willing to live in the dirty areas. If he does that, he'll be fine and end up a very good NHL player. If he doesn't, he's the type that teams sour on after a few years and catches on somewhere else as a filler guy that you never really want to commit to.

On progression... the recent, most successful example of development going right for a guy is Wyatt Johnston. He was drafted in 2021, spent his +1 season in the OHL and utterly dominated the league (probably the best single season since McDavid). His +2 he was a rookie in a majority 3rd line role and had a really good impact... but not ready for a 2C role. His +3, he still kind of plays a 3C role. Dallas is a fairly heavy 4 line rotation team with 3 lines typically rolling in that 13-14 minute EV range, but Johnston's like is the most likely to get trimmed. So a quasi 2C role, but still easier matchups than the Seguin and Hintz lines. Next season, he likely takes over the 2C duties fully.

So that's basically his +4 on a very good/near perfect projection to getting to that high impact, able to take on the matchups and tilt the ice sort of role. For Ritchie to hit that, we are 3 years away. I think that is the real debate. Assume everything goes well, are you willing to wait 2 more full seasons before finally having the issue solved internally and 26-27 being that season where things really are ready to roll?
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Yup. Glad you are here to put things into realistic perspective. I think if we find a long termish 2C with a decent contract, its no brainer to include Ritchie +++ to get it done.
 
Just hope this kid has increased his value to the point him + 1st can get us a 3-5 year solution for 2C.
Mittle titties, JEE, or Zegras being the main targets.
 
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Chiarelli said:
Just hope this kid has increased his value to the point him + 1st can get us a 3-5 year solution for 2C.
Mittle titties, JEE, or Zegras being the main targets.
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Just piggybacking off JEE's progression here as another successful example of a center developing from a mid or later first round pick

+1 good, but not great year in Sweden
+2 started in NHL wasn't ready, back to Sweden with another good year, ended in NHL
+3 3rd/4th line role
+4 3rd line role
+5 Mostly 3rd line, some 2nd line role
+6 2nd line role
+7-on high 2nd line role with matching responsibilities

If it takes Ritchie til his +6 to get to a 2nd line role, that would be 5 years from now.
 
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The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.

Unless the Avs are getting a bonafide 2C under team control, I don’t see them trading Ritchie.

Assuming they pay Rantanen and Makar, having a potential 2C on an ELC would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

I understand no one thinks we will be able to contend in a few years, but I can guarantee you that’s not the approach management is going to take with freaking Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on the team.
 
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NateTheGreat said:
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.

Unless the Avs are getting a bonafide 2C under team control, I don’t see them trading Ritchie.

Assuming we pay Rantanen and Makar, having a potential 2C on an ELC would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

I understand no one thinks we will be able to contend in a few years, but I can guarantee you that’s not the approach management is going to take with freaking Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on the team.
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Yup. We can't trade him for nothing but if a decent deal comes along, we have to pounce. If we get the lehkonen equivalent at 2C, im happy, change that 2nd to a first.
 
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IMO if you can get Mitts or Zegras (or similar guy)... Ritchie can be in the deal and I'd be completely okay with it. Lindholm is on the edge... it would hurt, but odds are Lindholm solves this year and the next 2 or 3 (before being a bad contract). If that ends up the case, so be it. In a Henrique/Monahan deal... it is just a bad use of resources.
 
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henchman21 said:
Just piggybacking off JEE's progression here as another successful example of a center developing from a mid or later first round pick

+1 good, but not great year in Sweden
+2 started in NHL wasn't ready, back to Sweden with another good year, ended in NHL
+3 3rd/4th line role
+4 3rd line role
+5 Mostly 3rd line, some 2nd line role
+6 2nd line role
+7-on high 2nd line role with matching responsibilities

If it takes Ritchie til his +6 to get to a 2nd line role, that would be 5 years from now.
Click to expand...
So, you're saying we should keep Ritchie, because he's actually the first piece of our eventual rebuild?
 
henchman21 said:
I think people forget how much hype there was on both Jost and Newhook... especially Newhook. Newhook was for sure an elite skating #2C and was for sure not going the route of Jost.

Each player is different and with Ritchie... style of play is probably his most critical issue. The tools and frame are all there. We just have to see him engage consistently and be willing to live in the dirty areas. If he does that, he'll be fine and end up a very good NHL player. If he doesn't, he's the type that teams sour on after a few years and catches on somewhere else as a filler guy that you never really want to commit to.

On progression... the recent, most successful example of development going right for a guy is Wyatt Johnston. He was drafted in 2021, spent his +1 season in the OHL and utterly dominated the league (probably the best single season since McDavid). His +2 he was a rookie in a majority 3rd line role and had a really good impact... but not ready for a 2C role. His +3, he still kind of plays a 3C role. Dallas is a fairly heavy 4 line rotation team with 3 lines typically rolling in that 13-14 minute EV range, but Johnston's like is the most likely to get trimmed. So a quasi 2C role, but still easier matchups than the Seguin and Hintz lines. Next season, he likely takes over the 2C duties fully.

So that's basically his +4 on a very good/near perfect projection to getting to that high impact, able to take on the matchups and tilt the ice sort of role. For Ritchie to hit that, we are 3 years away. I think that is the real debate. Assume everything goes well, are you willing to wait 2 more full seasons before finally having the issue solved internally and 26-27 being that season where things really are ready to roll?
Click to expand...

The thing is it’s possible for us to find a 2C and have Ritchie develop into a 2C. The two aren’t mutually exclusive and we have other assets (Byram, 2024/25 first, Behrens, Gulyayev) that can also be used to help acquire a help now 2C. It somewhat boils down to where the Avs believe they have the most depth and who they project to be a better long term help for the team.

If the team thinks that with the up and coming prospects on LHD and the instability with Byram that it might be better to reallocate there, I think it might be a feasible alternative route to trading Ritchie.
 
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Balthazar said:
I wouldn't expect him in the NHL next season. It's pretty clear that Bednar wants to win all the regular season games at all cost, he isn't going to take his time and develop a young player.

We've literally just witnessed it with Newhook.
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Not sure this is entirely fair. He was given a chance in several roles (2C, 3C and W). He just didn't take advantage of the opportunity. Management may have seen deficiencies in his game that they didn't like long term and thus maximized his value in a trade. He was better than Jost but they didn't want to wait until his value was diminished ala Jost.
 
henchman21 said:
Yes! Make the trade to improve the team, full stop. With the position the Avs are in, get better today and worry about this year first and the next two years. If the trade ends up like ROR/Thompson in 5 years... that's even completely fine by me.
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Or Orlov/Hathaway
 
Perratrooper said:
The thing is it’s possible for us to find a 2C and have Ritchie develop into a 2C. The two aren’t mutually exclusive and we have other assets (Byram, 2024/25 first, Behrens, Gulyayev) that can also be used to help acquire a help now 2C. It somewhat boils down to where the Avs believe they have the most depth and who they project to be a better long term help for the team.

If the team thinks that with the up and coming prospects on LHD and the instability with Byram that it might be better to reallocate there, I think it might be a feasible alternative route to trading Ritchie.
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Good point - however Ritchie is quickly becoming our most valuable/desireable trade chip and he’s still not some blue chip prospect. Presumably the team giving us a 2C is also going to want to replace some of that lost center depth as well.
 
Chiarelli said:
Good point - however Ritchie is quickly becoming our most valuable/desireable trade chip and he’s still not some blue chip prospect. Presumably the team giving us a 2C is also going to want to replace some of that lost center depth as well.
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That's why we give them RyJo. Helps them out now, instead of making them wait 5 years for Ritchie to develop.
 
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henchman21 said:
Just piggybacking off JEE's progression here as another successful example of a center developing from a mid or later first round pick

+1 good, but not great year in Sweden
+2 started in NHL wasn't ready, back to Sweden with another good year, ended in NHL
+3 3rd/4th line role
+4 3rd line role
+5 Mostly 3rd line, some 2nd line role
+6 2nd line role
+7-on high 2nd line role with matching responsibilities

If it takes Ritchie til his +6 to get to a 2nd line role, that would be 5 years from now.
Click to expand...
This is pretty mind-blowing and shows why prospects are meh for us. Basically very unlikely he will make a difference to us during our Cup window.
 
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