Value of: Auston Matthews

[OMG67]

What? Why would the % of the cap stay the same as the cap goes up and the salary stays the same?

I don’t understand what you don’t understand.

1> Agents determine what the average cap will be during the duration of the contract
2> They demand a percentage of that cap value
3> Once the contract is signed, the contract as a percentage of the cap is at its highest. As the contract progresses through is years and the cap goes up, the contract value as a percentage of the cap goes down

You cannot look at McDavid’s contract now (15.2%) and apply that to what Matthews would sign for. It is irrelevant. McDavid’s agent would have estimated the average value of the cap for the duration of the contract and placed the AAV percentage on That.

So, for Matthews, he will likely look at a 4-5 year contract. There will be a significant cap bump by the first year of his new contract and then incremental bumps after that. So, hypothetically speaking the cap value would be:
2024-25 - 88.5mil
2025-26 - 89.5mil
2026-27 - 90.5mil
2027-28 - 91.5mil
2028-29 - 92.5mil
AVERAGE: 90.5mil

If Matthews agent and the Lears agree to 15% of the average cap value for the duration of the contract, it would equal $13.575mil AAV. HOWEVER, if he signs the contract this fall (a year in advance of the contract start) and you were to apply it to next year’s cap value ($83.5mil), then it would be 16.3% of the cap. Int he last year of his contract, it would be 14.7%.

The Matthews contract will be very easy to negotiate assuming the same process they used last time (and McDavid) will apply. The Leafs agreed to a shorter term last time so they will do the same again this time. Then it is more a matter of No Movement clauses etc and when they kick in.

So, unless MAtthews agent is asking for MAX (20% - which would need to be applied to the current cap, not the projected average), and is realistic with respect to what that percentage should be, there shouldn’t be any issues with the contract.

 

[OMG67]

Trading Matthews and his mega caphit before July 1st in a league where salary commitments are tight against the cap and most teams are choked up is like doing complicated surgery on an airplane flying into a storm... with a gun to your head. Good luck getting good value!


John Tavares said he would re-sign as well. How did that work out?

Dubas gave a front-loaded, salary-bonus laden, NMC-in-final-year contract and couldn't buy even a single measly UFA year out of it. For his troubles he got the Leafs one (1) playoff series win.

Now it's Matthews turn to show his loyalty to the Leafs organization, I suppose. Let's all hold our breathes and see how it shakes out.
View attachment 709239

He will sign or be traded. Imagine as a Habs fan living through the Patrick Roy “I’m not playing here anymore” saga for an entire season instead of one week prior to the deal to Colorado. Take that scenario and the media circus surrounding it and double it in Toronto.

Anyone suggesting Matthews will want to play out his contract and go UFA at the end while doing it in Toronto is delusional. This will be resolved in principle prior to July 1. If Matthews is true to his word and wants to stay and the LEafs want to keep him, he will sign. If he doesn’t want to stay, he will tell the LEafs and they will tradE him. He knows keeping his wishes to go UFA a secreat hurts him because it results in the 50 questions per day about it every day next season. He won’t want it and neither will the team.

JT had a Plan A and that was to play in Toronto. He didn’t need to deal with constant media pressure to get there.

 

[34]

Look at that avatar. Oiler fans are living rent free over here!

Gotta love the defeat in his face with that handshake. You love to see it.

I am no oilers fan. I despise everything about that team.

 

[TS Quint]

I don’t understand what you don’t understand.

1> Agents determine what the average cap will be during the duration of the contract
2> They demand a percentage of that cap value
3> Once the contract is signed, the contract as a percentage of the cap is at its highest. As the contract progresses through is years and the cap goes up, the contract value as a percentage of the cap goes down

You cannot look at McDavid’s contract now (15.2%) and apply that to what Matthews would sign for. It is irrelevant. McDavid’s agent would have estimated the average value of the cap for the duration of the contract and placed the AAV percentage on That.

So, for Matthews, he will likely look at a 4-5 year contract. There will be a significant cap bump by the first year of his new contract and then incremental bumps after that. So, hypothetically speaking the cap value would be:
2024-25 - 88.5mil
2025-26 - 89.5mil
2026-27 - 90.5mil
2027-28 - 91.5mil
2028-29 - 92.5mil
AVERAGE: 90.5mil

If Matthews agent and the Lears agree to 15% of the average cap value for the duration of the contract, it would equal $13.575mil AAV. HOWEVER, if he signs the contract this fall (a year in advance of the contract start) and you were to apply it to next year’s cap value ($83.5mil), then it would be 16.3% of the cap. Int he last year of his contract, it would be 14.7%.

The Matthews contract will be very easy to negotiate assuming the same process they used last time (and McDavid) will apply. The Leafs agreed to a shorter term last time so they will do the same again this time. Then it is more a matter of No Movement clauses etc and when they kick in.

So, unless MAtthews agent is asking for MAX (20% - which would need to be applied to the current cap, not the projected average), and is realistic with respect to what that percentage should be, there shouldn’t be any issues with the contract.

You are starting from a point of nothing I have said and are just ranting non sense.

 

[DFC]

Matthews has a ton of value, but it's probably not as much as Leaf fans think. As great as it is that he scored 60, the playoffs and his contract will keep things a little bit in check. I don't see anybody trading the keys to the franchise for him without a contract in place, especially given how not dominant he becomes in the playoffs.

He needs to be on a team with a playoff-suited star, and then the money becomes tough.

 

[GCK]

No team would trade for Matthews as a 1 year rental because of the asset cost the Leafs would require not to just keep him. This pretty much means he has an NMC already, so the July 1st date is moot. I doubt there are 3 or 4 destinations Matthews wants to spend the next 5-8 years. I see Toronto, Rangers, LA and Anaheim as realistic options. If he decides he can accept 13.5M AAV or less he won’t be leaving Toronto. No way he chooses to play in a college rink for several years so he won’t be Coyote.

 

[OMG67]

You are starting from a point of nothing I have said and are just ranting non sense.

Originally you said McDavid is a paid at 16% of cap. I clarified how the percentage is calculated for the purposes of projecting the contract value for Matthews. It should be clear now.

Some people are pulling random numbers based on other players contracts. That’s not how this will go. Matthews won’t get 12.7 because MacKinnon makes $12.6. It will be based on AAV percentage of cap projection.

 

[mydnyte]

All depends if that new GM is looking to win a cup or just have a great regular season team.

sure... lets use everyone's fave Lou.
he went to the isles who were a great up and coming team with a great cap situation, and signed a bunch of playoff type guys (basically 3rd liners) to long term deals, and now they are a shell of what they should have been.
you surround stars with lesser pieces, you dont dump stars for the lesser pieces, then sign them to long term deals for more than they are worth.
I would have thought Horvat would be a great playoff guy, but, he's really a high end #2-3C tweener that had a career regular season (in a contract year, on a team that was a disaster)
His career best is still only a 70 point season, and how the isles are stuck with him for 7 more years at 8.5
Leafs fans are screaming to unload Tavares who is a fair bit more $$ at 11/per (for 2 more years) but as a leaf he's an 80 point player, and considered to be on the decline with that production
he will likely continue to average 75-80 points a season for the duration of his contract, which is better than more than 1/3 of the teams #1C in the league.

 

[TS Quint]

Originally you said McDavid is a paid at 16% of cap. I clarified how the percentage is calculated for the purposes of projecting the contract value for Matthews. It should be clear now.

Some people are pulling random numbers based on other players contracts. That’s not how this will go. Matthews won’t get 12.7 because MacKinnon makes $12.6. It will be based on AAV percentage of cap projection.

That is why I expressed his value as a % of the cap rather than just a $….

 

[WildWolfdog]

And yet, Matthew Tkachuk who had just 15 points in 27 playoff games when he was traded last offseason and one year left on his deal was easily moved.

I’m not suggesting the cap is not difficult, but there’s it’s hard to see a world where Toronto (in this hypothetical trade scenario) is retaining on Matthews without a large sweetener.

If Matthews were made available the lineup of serious suitors would be very long, you can be certain of that

Why are you responding to someone who is either fully trolling or doesn't live in reality.

Yeah, Toronto will need to retain on Matthews. Get the f*** outta here.

 

[aerovette99]

His value plummeted after the showing against Florida. Lazy and fairly invisible. 11 million to be a 50 - 60 goal scorer and then become invisible in the post season doesn't seem worth it.

 

[RiverbottomChuck]

The bruins should make a move for him.

 

[Guffman]

The bruins should make a move for him.

Bruins don’t have the salary cap to even consider this.

 

[Space umpire]

He will sign or be traded. Imagine as a Habs fan living through the Patrick Roy “I’m not playing here anymore” saga for an entire season instead of one week prior to the deal to Colorado. Take that scenario and the media circus surrounding it and double it in Toronto.

Anyone suggesting Matthews will want to play out his contract and go UFA at the end while doing it in Toronto is delusional. This will be resolved in principle prior to July 1. If Matthews is true to his word and wants to stay and the LEafs want to keep him, he will sign. If he doesn’t want to stay, he will tell the LEafs and they will tradE him. He knows keeping his wishes to go UFA a secreat hurts him because it results in the 50 questions per day about it every day next season. He won’t want it and neither will the team.

JT had a Plan A and that was to play in Toronto. He didn’t need to deal with constant media pressure to get there.

JT told NYI mgmt he wanted to stay to avoid being traded at the TDL.
Then he left for Toronto.
AM can speak to the media or not. It is his choice. He can answer questions about game x with the understanding that he walks away from the podium if asked a contract question.

That said I think he stay in Toronto. I doubt he has that great a value to many other teams.

Some brought up what Eichel got in trade. It’s better to project a guy will succeed who hasn’t had the opportunity than to think a guy who hasn’t produced in the playoffs will suddenly start doing so.

 

[AndreRoy]

I would love to know if anyone has gotten any indication, directly or indirectly, from Auston or anyone in his orbit that he has even the slightest intention of ever playing for Arizona? If so, I'd also love for them to share that insight.

Or is it just 100% speculation based on the fact that he's from there and it's warmer than Toronto?

The funny thing is what little evidence I’ve seen people bring up points to him wanting to play in a big market where he can live the celebrity lifestyle. I actually like Phoenix a lot but it’s probably not high on the list of the average twenty-something multimillionaire athlete.

 

[wintersej]

I don’t understand what you don’t understand.

1> Agents determine what the average cap will be during the duration of the contract
2> They demand a percentage of that cap value
3> Once the contract is signed, the contract as a percentage of the cap is at its highest. As the contract progresses through is years and the cap goes up, the contract value as a percentage of the cap goes down

You cannot look at McDavid’s contract now (15.2%) and apply that to what Matthews would sign for. It is irrelevant. McDavid’s agent would have estimated the average value of the cap for the duration of the contract and placed the AAV percentage on That.

So, for Matthews, he will likely look at a 4-5 year contract. There will be a significant cap bump by the first year of his new contract and then incremental bumps after that. So, hypothetically speaking the cap value would be:
2024-25 - 88.5mil
2025-26 - 89.5mil
2026-27 - 90.5mil
2027-28 - 91.5mil
2028-29 - 92.5mil
AVERAGE: 90.5mil

If Matthews agent and the Lears agree to 15% of the average cap value for the duration of the contract, it would equal $13.575mil AAV. HOWEVER, if he signs the contract this fall (a year in advance of the contract start) and you were to apply it to next year’s cap value ($83.5mil), then it would be 16.3% of the cap. Int he last year of his contract, it would be 14.7%.

The Matthews contract will be very easy to negotiate assuming the same process they used last time (and McDavid) will apply. The Leafs agreed to a shorter term last time so they will do the same again this time. Then it is more a matter of No Movement clauses etc and when they kick in.

So, unless MAtthews agent is asking for MAX (20% - which would need to be applied to the current cap, not the projected average), and is realistic with respect to what that percentage should be, there shouldn’t be any issues with the contract.

The estimate is that we would be at a 92m cap or so today if it wasn’t for COVID. Your math assuming 1m bumps is waaaay too conservative.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

If they do deal him, it's almost certainly going to be a loss. Only way it isn't is if they get a great - amazing return and he has a lackluster year and leaves.

 

[OMG67]

The estimate is that we would be at a 92m cap or so today if it wasn’t for COVID. Your math assuming 1m bumps is waaaay too conservative.

It’s for informational purposes to demonstrate how the contract would be negotiated. Clearly the Agent and the Team would have their own projections that would likley be more accurate than mine.

I am also suggesting a 15% share of cap. It may very well be based on 14 or 13% of the average cap. I don’t know what the actual standard is because both Matthews and McDavid signed prior to Covid and MacKinnon signed well before we knew when the cap would be going up or what it would end up at as a result of the TV rights sale.

Again, it is more what “determines” the valuation of the AAV, not so much what the actual numbers would be. I was more trying to accentuate th point that they dont’ look so much at the highest AAV ($12.6mil for MacKinnon) and use that as the bar. It is far more sophisticated but standard calculation at the same time. It’s not like either side doesn’t know what’s what. There should not be any serious disagreements on the value when it comes to the elite players. It’s not like one side is at $6mil and the other is at $8mil. It would be that one side is at 13% and the other is at 14% and whether their projected cap numbers align. That makes it much closer than say the Nylander contract would be. That contract will be far more difficult to pin down a value than Matthews.