Value of: Auston Matthews

[Hockeyholic]

If they buyout or trade Goodrow which is likely to happen, yeah. I know it's not gonna happen I just want to see the reactions to the idea of it though lol.

I don't think the Leafs would do it straight up. There would probably need to be a somewhat significant add on Rangers part. I'm assuming this is all on the assumption Matthews immediately signs an extension with NYR.

 

[seanlinden]

Matthews is t going UFA out of Toronto. Leafs will trade him I signed. Imagine the shit show in the media of 34 played a year without a contract? Never going to happen.

Yeah I'd agree with that. I think Dubas (if he's still in charge) needs to negotiate a trade and extension at the same time, knowing that absolutely 1 option must be selected prior to July 1.

 

[OMG67]

Matthews makes $2M more per year while providing nothing besides scoring. And no, no team is going to give you a sweetener, large or otherwise, to pay for your mistake in overpaying Matthews - bringing his contract down to fair value in order to make him tradeable is entirely on the Leafs.

As for the “very long” lineup of potential suitors for Matthews, who exactly does that include? Rebuilding teams are out as he has only one year left on his deal. And what contender has a spare $11.6M in cap space that they can spend on someone who isn’t worth nearly that much? The fact is without retention Matthews has negative value due to his vastly overinflated contract, and any trade of him is going to involve retention and/or a cap dump coming back*, either to Toronto or to a third party that Toronto would be paying to take that on for them.

* A third possibility is Matthews for two players who are both overpaid by a couple million each and whose combined cap hit balances out Matthews’; in this case rather than the cap dump being a separate entity in the trade it would be built into the return itself, but it would still involve wasted cap space coming back to Toronto in some form.

Erik Karlsson was traded making $10+ and injured. Leafs won’t have issues trading Matthews at nearly the same salary and 7 years younger.

 

[Coffees]

A lot of trade proposals. Really, that’s sort of a waste. I doubt he goes anywhere.

BUT

What is Matthews real value in broad terms? Leave names and trades out of the equation.

If he were to go to Arizona and be willing to resign there at 15% of cap at the projected $90mil, he’d sign for $13.5mil. His value to the Coyotes would be far greater than to any other team. He’d be able to lend a lot of weight toward the building of a new rink and they could build a proper franchise around him. It wouldnt’ be about winning a Stanley Cu there, it would be about resurrecting a franchise And building a market. Arizona should and would give up almost anything Toronto would ask for provided Matthews agreed to a contract extension.

If Matthews were to go to LA, Chicago or NYR, his value wouldn’t be nearly as high but those are teams he’d probably want to sign an extension with. I think you’d look at a top 6 forward at a good age, a top prospect and two 1sts in return as the starting point. IF there were some form of bidding war, maybe you add a third 1st rounder? I think that is the fair value. BUT! The Arizona option would net the Leafs a bundle. To me, I’d be talking to Matthews and asking if he wants to go home and if he does, I’d be picking up that phone right quick.

Toronto sends Auston Matthews to Vancouver for Elias Pettersson and 11th overall pick.

Canucks run a unstoppable American punch center duo Matthews and Miller

Toronto get a 6”2 center who is getting stronger and stronger and can play in all situations.


Both teams need a shake up

 

[Adele Dazeem]

He's not going anywhere unless he tells them he's out.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I don't think the Leafs would do it straight up. There would probably need to be a somewhat significant add on Rangers part. I'm assuming this is all on the assumption Matthews immediately signs an extension with NYR.

I would agree that an add would be necessary.

 

[mydnyte]

since Matthews just said he has every intention of RE-SIGNING why do we still have these posts?

 

[OMG67]

Yeah I'd agree with that. I think Dubas (if he's still in charge) needs to negotiate a trade and extension at the same time, knowing that absolutely 1 option must be selected prior to July 1.

The Matthews extension doesn’t require a negotiation. They will determine the projected salary cap at the mid point of his contract and he will get 14-15% of that. The contract length will be whatever Matthews wants it to be. The only thing left is how they structure the NMC.

If there is any delays on a verbal agreement with all that in place, then Matthews would be a pro and request a trade and give 1-3 teams where he’d resign. Leafs would work with this teams first and if not, they’d trade him as a rental.

 

[OMG67]

since Matthews just said he has every intention of RE-SIGNING why do we still have these posts?

Just because a player wants to sign doesn’t mean the team is willing to pay.

I’m not saying the Leafs won’t resign. I think they are 90% likely to resign. However, if they bring in a new GM and they sound the market and there is a package that makes the Leafs better, they should at least look at it provided it is a place he’d want to play.

 

[TS Quint]

100%. LEafs can take on salary short term if it was an issue of money in and money out. The number of teams willing to sell cap space helps as well. I may not be a 34 fan but I respect his abilities and skill set. He is a top 5 player in the NHL without question. I just don’t feel he should be on a cup contender. He should be on a team where expectations are lower and he is able to compile regular season goals and individual trophies. He isn’t a playoff guy and many teams ar e looking to sell regular season tickets and aren’t as concerned about the playoffs.

Then he should stay in Toronto. No one blames him for the team not succeeding. They blame Babcock, Kadri, Andersen, even Marner but Matthews still gets called the best player in the game by Leafs fans.

 

[TS Quint]

Matthews is t going UFA out of Toronto. Leafs will trade him I signed. Imagine the shit show in the media of 34 played a year without a contract? Never going to happen.

No chance the Leafs close Their window a year early. They keep Matthews and try to win even if he says he’s going to leave.

 

[666]

since Matthews just said he has every intention of RE-SIGNING why do we still have these posts?

Because JT said the same thing (I think).

 

[therocket9]

Matthews is nor being traded if he does not sign an extension he will play next year for the leafs then leave as ufa some way Tavares did with the Isles...then leafs will use that cap space to sign another player if no one is available they will do a 2 year mini rebuild and go after 29 year old Connor McDavid as a ufa 2 years later.

 

[TS Quint]

The Matthews extension doesn’t require a negotiation. They will determine the projected salary cap at the mid point of his contract and he will get 14-15% of that. The contract length will be whatever Matthews wants it to be. The only thing left is how they structure the NMC.

If there is any delays on a verbal agreement with all that in place, then Matthews would be a pro and request a trade and give 1-3 teams where he’d resign. Leafs would work with this teams first and if not, they’d trade him as a rental.

I think Matthews believe what many Leafs fans believe. He thinks he is a smidge less valuable than McDavid. McDavid has a 16.7% contract. I think Matthews won’t go lower than 16%.

 

[mydnyte]

Just because a player wants to sign doesn’t mean the team is willing to pay.

I’m not saying the Leafs won’t resign. I think they are 90% likely to resign. However, if they bring in a new GM and they sound the market and there is a package that makes the Leafs better, they should at least look at it provided it is a place he’d want to play.

okay, imagine you are an incoming GM ...would you want a season remove Hart winner, and one of the best players in the world on your team, or sell him off for lesser players?

 

[Sypher04]

The difference between Matthews and Tkachuk is Tkachuk does things to help the team even when he isnt scoring.

If you don’t think Matthews does too then I honestly don’t know what to say to that. The idea that Matthews provides nothing if he’s not scoring is not based in reality.

 

[Haatley]

If you don’t think Matthews does too then I honestly don’t know what to say to that. The idea that Matthews provides nothing if he’s not scoring is not based in reality

What did he provide this round? When did he get his hands dirty? How did he perform at 5 on 5 in close or tied games? You really think his contributions compare to what Tkachuk brings? Give me a break. Matthews is butter soft. Disappears when the game is on the line. Doesn't stick up for team mates. Doesn't throw his 6'4 body around.

 

[Guffman]

No chance the Leafs close Their window a year early. They keep Matthews and try to win even if he says he’s going to leave.

Matthews is nor being traded if he does not sign an extension he will play next year for the leafs then leave as ufa some way Tavares did with the Isles...then leafs will use that cap space to sign another player if no one is available they will do a 2 year mini rebuild and go after 29 year old Connor McDavid as a ufa 2 years later.

Guys, there is a concept called “asset management”.

I don’t know how much tinkering is left to be tried. This team fell 11 wins short of the Stanley Cup despite injecting a batch of veteran rentals. You don’t just say, “well, let’s try one more time with the current corp“ without extensions and risk losing Matthews and Nylander for nothing.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Toronto sends Auston Matthews to Vancouver for Elias Pettersson and 11th overall pick.

Canucks run a unstoppable American punch center duo Matthews and Miller

Toronto get a 6”2 center who is getting stronger and stronger and can play in all situations.


Both teams need a shake up

If Matthews isn't coming with an extension, Allvin starts laughing so hard that he's crying and then says "Fk you" and hangs up. Then calls back to say "wait you didn't mean the LD teenager Elias Pettersson did you?"

 

[OMG67]

I think Matthews believe what many Leafs fans believe. He thinks he is a smidge less valuable than McDavid. McDavid has a 16.7% contract. I think Matthews won’t go lower than 16%.

14-15% of the “projected” cap of “$90mil” not of the current cap of $82.5mil.

 

[TS Quint]

Guys, there is a concept called “asset management”.

I don’t know how much tinkering is left to be tried. This team fell 11 wins short of the Stanley Cup despite injecting a batch of veteran rentals. You don’t just say, “well, let’s try one more time with the current corp“ without extensions and risk losing Matthews and Nylander for nothing.

This happens every year. I’m fact teams don’t just keep their own guys on expiring contracts they actually pay assets to get players on expiring contracts. You see there is this thing called the Stanley Cup that teams are trying to win.

 

[OMG67]

Let’s be clear. The Leafs cannot go into next season with Matthews not extended. It would be a media circus. Imagine the same question being asked 37 times every day, “Are you close to a contract?” Nightmare.

Total shit show in the media. Neither the Leafs nor Matthews would want to participate in that. If Matthews does want to leave, he knows it is through a trade now. He does not want to live through a full year of constant questions, media speculation, fan uproar etc. And why would the Leafs want to go through that?

His resigning is one of the easiest contracts ever. Players of that calibre aren’t tough to sign. Percentage of the cal and number of years. The end. His side isn’t going to dick around playing games trying to jockey for position of playing out his contract. His side would request a trade and give 1-3 teams on a list and request it.

This is the only logical outcome other than of course that he signs.

 

[TS Quint]

14-15% of the “projected” cap of “$90mil” not of the current cap of $82.5mil.

The % doesn’t change. He will want 16%, that’s how contracts are discussed. Not dollars.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

A lot of trade proposals. Really, that’s sort of a waste. I doubt he goes anywhere.

BUT

What is Matthews real value in broad terms? Leave names and trades out of the equation.

If he were to go to Arizona and be willing to resign there at 15% of cap at the projected $90mil, he’d sign for $13.5mil. His value to the Coyotes would be far greater than to any other team. He’d be able to lend a lot of weight toward the building of a new rink and they could build a proper franchise around him. It wouldnt’ be about winning a Stanley Cu there, it would be about resurrecting a franchise And building a market. Arizona should and would give up almost anything Toronto would ask for provided Matthews agreed to a contract extension.

If Matthews were to go to LA, Chicago or NYR, his value wouldn’t be nearly as high but those are teams he’d probably want to sign an extension with. I think you’d look at a top 6 forward at a good age, a top prospect and two 1sts in return as the starting point. IF there were some form of bidding war, maybe you add a third 1st rounder? I think that is the fair value. BUT! The Arizona option would net the Leafs a bundle. To me, I’d be talking to Matthews and asking if he wants to go home and if he does, I’d be picking up that phone right quick.

I wonder what the leafs would want from NYR for him. Lets say he doesnt agree to an extension before his NMC kicks in, the Leafs lose some leverage so the price wont be as high as some think imo. I think theyd move him to NYR for Chytil and Kandre Miller. Rangers make that move if hes willing to be extended 8 years.

Let’s be clear. The Leafs cannot go into next season with Matthews not extended. It would be a media circus. Imagine the same question being asked 37 times every day, “Are you close to a contract?” Nightmare.

Total shit show in the media. Neither the Leafs nor Matthews would want to participate in that. If Matthews does want to leave, he knows it is through a trade now. He does not want to live through a full year of constant questions, media speculation, fan uproar etc. And why would the Leafs want to go through that?

His resigning is one of the easiest contracts ever. Players of that calibre aren’t tough to sign. Percentage of the cal and number of years. The end. His side isn’t going to dick around playing games trying to jockey for position of playing out his contract. His side would request a trade and give 1-3 teams on a list and request it.

This is the only logical outcome other than of course that he signs.

32 thoughts today speculated he might wanna max aav for 4 years so he can sign one last mega deal 4 years down the road

 

[OMG67]

The % doesn’t change. He will want 16%, that’s how contracts are discussed. Not dollars.

McDavid didn’t get 16% of the future cap. He got 16% of the current cap. As the cap goes up, the percentage comes down.

How it works in these situations is the agents project where the cap will be in the middle year of the contract or the average cap value for the duration of the contract. Then they demand the percentage of that number.

In this case, I am projecting a cap average during Matthews next contract of $90mil. So he will get the normal 14-15% of THAT number. 16% of this cap is meaningless if the average cap is projected to go up a lot.