Value of: Auston Matthews

[OMG67]

A lot of trade proposals. Really, that’s sort of a waste. I doubt he goes anywhere.

BUT

What is Matthews real value in broad terms? Leave names and trades out of the equation.

If he were to go to Arizona and be willing to resign there at 15% of cap at the projected $90mil, he’d sign for $13.5mil. His value to the Coyotes would be far greater than to any other team. He’d be able to lend a lot of weight toward the building of a new rink and they could build a proper franchise around him. It wouldnt’ be about winning a Stanley Cu there, it would be about resurrecting a franchise And building a market. Arizona should and would give up almost anything Toronto would ask for provided Matthews agreed to a contract extension.

If Matthews were to go to LA, Chicago or NYR, his value wouldn’t be nearly as high but those are teams he’d probably want to sign an extension with. I think you’d look at a top 6 forward at a good age, a top prospect and two 1sts in return as the starting point. IF there were some form of bidding war, maybe you add a third 1st rounder? I think that is the fair value. BUT! The Arizona option would net the Leafs a bundle. To me, I’d be talking to Matthews and asking if he wants to go home and if he does, I’d be picking up that phone right quick.

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[lanceuppercut75]

Leafs can also trade him as a 1 year rental anywhere they feel like trading him and Matthews' opinion on where he wants to play doesn't matter. That's an option too.

 

[Heldig]

What is Matthews real value in broad terms? Leave names and trades out of the equation.

If he were to go to Arizona and be willing to resign there at 15% of cap at the projected $90mil, he’d sign for $13.5mil. His value to the Coyotes would be far greater than to any other team. He’d be able to lend a lot of weight toward the building of a new rink and they could build a proper franchise around him. It wouldnt’ be about winning a Stanley Cu there, it would be about resurrecting a franchise And building a market. Arizona should and would give up almost anything Toronto would ask for provided Matthews agreed to a contract extension.

I think your premise is spot on in terms of how valuable to the franchise Matthews could be.

But Arizona wont/cant afford to give up almost anything Toronto would ask for. They have just started stock piling young talent. Gutting the team now to add Matthews will do little to build the market. Like most markets, the best way to build it is to start being competitive.

 

[AndreRoy]

Leafs can also trade him as a 1 year rental anywhere they feel like trading him and Matthews' opinion on where he wants to play doesn't matter. That's an option too.

You are forgetting the demand side of the equation, and there’s not a lot of demand for a nearly $12M player who’s not even a PPG in the playoffs over his career and who only has one year left on his deal. The cost and subpar playoff performance eliminate contenders and the rental status eliminates rebuilding teams. The only way Matthews realistically gets traded is if the Leafs retain a lot and/or take a substantial cap dump in return, or if they pay another team (like Chicago) to do so for them.

 

[OMG67]

Leafs can also trade him as a 1 year rental anywhere they feel like trading him and Matthews' opinion on where he wants to play doesn't matter. That's an option too.

True but the return wouldnt’ be nearly as good. It is better to try to find a landing spot where he wants to play and try to work out a deal. If not deal,t hen your plan is Plan B. No issues provided it is a relatively similar deal to the EK deal in SJ.

 

[Mitch nylander]

Well if Eichel returned Peyton Krebs (former 1st, coming off a strong season in the W), Alex Tuch (a young 50 point forward), a 1st round pick, and a 2nd rounder after neck surgery and worries that he would not be the same player.

Even EK is a decent comparable, a high contract coming off a slightly worse season, he returned: 2 conditional 1sts, 2 conditional 2nds, Josh Norris (a recent first rounder who was doing okay at the college level), Rudolfs Balcers (an ahl guy coming off a great rookie ahl season), Chris Tierney (a 40 point center) and Dylan Demelo (a rough bottom pair dman).

I feel at minimum Matthews gets a similar return if not bigger. I'd imagine the ask would be somewhere around a top 6 center, a good nhl ready forward prospect, a high pick, and a d prospect with potential to be a rugged player.

 

[Prestigeworldwide]

Leafs can also trade him as a 1 year rental anywhere they feel like trading him and Matthews' opinion on where he wants to play doesn't matter. That's an option too.

Better do it by July 1st then. After that day Matthews has all the say.

 

[OMG67]

I think your premise is spot on in terms of how valuable to the franchise Matthews could be.

But Arizona wont/cant afford to give up almost anything Toronto would ask for. They have just started stock piling young talent. Gutting the team now to add Matthews will do little to build the market. Like most markets, the best way to build it is to start being competitive.

Agreed but like I said, Matthews puts Arizona on solid ground more than the prospects do. A Hayton+Crouse deal is probably possible under the circumstances. No way Leafs get two players like that in a deal with any other team. If they were on LA, they’d get one of them for sure but not both.

This is the angle that I think may be there. I question Matthews wanting to play in Arizona now. To me, he wants to stay in Toronto with another 4-5 year deal and then go to Arizona when they are on solid ground and winning.

Well if Eichel returned Peyton Krebs (former 1st, coming off a strong season in the W), Alex Tuch (a young 50 point forward), a 1st round pick, and a 2nd rounder after neck surgery and worries that he would not be the same player.

I feel at minimum Matthews gets a similar return if not bigger. I'd imagine the ask would be somewhere around a top 6 center, a good nhl ready forward prospect, a high pick, and a d prospect with potential to be a rugged player.

I think that is accurate. I think two prospects may be tough. It will depend on the draft pick situation. I’m thinking the one prospect plus two 1sts instead of two prospects and one 1st but that’s still apples to apples in my mind.

The key is him wanting to sign wherever he goes. Richelieu was willing to extend which made a big difference.

 

[Sypher04]

You are forgetting the demand side of the equation, and there’s not a lot of demand for a nearly $12M player who’s not even a PPG in the playoffs over his career and who only has one year left on his deal. The cost and subpar playoff performance eliminate contenders and the rental status eliminates rebuilding teams. The only way Matthews realistically gets traded is if the Leafs retain a lot and/or take a substantial cap dump in return, or if they pay another team (like Chicago) to do so for them.

And yet, Matthew Tkachuk who had just 15 points in 27 playoff games when he was traded last offseason and one year left on his deal was easily moved.

I’m not suggesting the cap is not difficult, but there’s it’s hard to see a world where Toronto (in this hypothetical trade scenario) is retaining on Matthews without a large sweetener.

If Matthews were made available the lineup of serious suitors would be very long, you can be certain of that

 

[OMG67]

Better do it by July 1st then. After that day Matthews has all the say.

I think it would need to be a draft day move. May as well snag a 1st int his draft as opposed to waiting for next draft.

 

[OMG67]

And yet, Matthew Tkachuk who had just 15 points in 27 playoff games when he was traded last offseason and one year left on his deal was easily moved.

I’m not suggesting the cap is not difficult, but there’s it’s hard to see a world where Toronto (in this hypothetical trade scenario) is retaining on Matthews without a large sweetener.

If Matthews were made available the lineup of serious suitors would be very long, you can be certain of that

100%. LEafs can take on salary short term if it was an issue of money in and money out. The number of teams willing to sell cap space helps as well. I may not be a 34 fan but I respect his abilities and skill set. He is a top 5 player in the NHL without question. I just don’t feel he should be on a cup contender. He should be on a team where expectations are lower and he is able to compile regular season goals and individual trophies. He isn’t a playoff guy and many teams ar e looking to sell regular season tickets and aren’t as concerned about the playoffs.

 

[Legion34]

Well if Eichel returned Peyton Krebs (former 1st, coming off a strong season in the W), Alex Tuch (a young 50 point forward), a 1st round pick, and a 2nd rounder after neck surgery and worries that he would not be the same player.

Even EK is a decent comparable, a high contract coming off a slightly worse season, he returned: 2 conditional 1sts, 2 conditional 2nds, Josh Norris (a recent first rounder who was doing okay at the college level), Rudolfs Balcers (an ahl guy coming off a great rookie ahl season), Chris Tierney (a 40 point center) and Dylan Demelo (a rough bottom pair dman).

I feel at minimum Matthews gets a similar return if not bigger. I'd imagine the ask would be somewhere around a top 6 center, a good nhl ready forward prospect, a high pick, and a d prospect with potential to be a rugged player.

Something like. Hague, brisson, 1, conditional 1 would be low but may work. If there is no extension in place

 

[Mitch nylander]

Something like. Hague, brisson, 1, conditional 1 would be low but may work. If there is no extension in place

Vegas is a tough one, cause I don't think this would make that much sense from a toronto perspective cause we'd likely look for a better prospect than Brisson, and Hague while a good dman, we'd likely want a forward to replace the Matthews hole.

I think this offer is too low from our perspective, and we can certainly get more value elsewhere.

Either way, we'd likely look for a team to overpay for him. Since let's be real, team's don't often move Hart trophy winning centers.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

As a 1 year rental... 1st + A tier prospect + another prospect or pick.


Signed to an extension, who knows really. You almost never see players traded of his skill level still in their primes. It would be a substantial package.

 

[EverTheCynic]

Wouldn't claim him off waivers at whatever absurd AAV his next contract is

 

[seanlinden]

As a 1 year rental... 1st + A tier prospect + another prospect or pick.


Signed to an extension, who knows really. You almost never see players traded of his skill level still in their primes. It would be a substantial package.

Not only that... but he's still only 25 years old.

The reality is, if the Leafs put Matthews on the block, there will probably be a list of upwards of 20 teams making calls... simply because it will probably be the only chance to get a player of his ilk.

From a Leaf standpoint, given that they'd be trying to turn around and continue being contenders, they have to be somewhat specific on the package. It needs to include somebody who is around Matthews age, or younger, that can comfortably slot in as a top 6 C on a contender.

The package also needs to include something to satisfy some of the other areas of the roster -- whether that's a big defenceman, a goalie... certainly can be up for debate.

If you're looking at Arizona, I'd imagine it's a package of Barrett Hayton, Lawson Crouse , Conor Geekie and a pick or two.

Before everyone jumps in and says "they'll just wait for him to become UFA"... it's not that simple. The Coyotes need a rink, and they kind of need the deal done this summer. Getting Auston Matthews, likely gets them their rink.

There is also the risk / reality, that if AZ doesn't step up to the plate on a trade, that the Leafs could go and trade him to LA, or some other reasonably desirable destination, and that team turns around and gives him something to the tune of $14 x 8.

 

[AndreRoy]

And yet, Matthew Tkachuk who had just 15 points in 27 playoff games when he was traded last offseason and one year left on his deal was easily moved.

I’m not suggesting the cap is not difficult, but there’s it’s hard to see a world where Toronto (in this hypothetical trade scenario) is retaining on Matthews without a large sweetener.

If Matthews were made available the lineup of serious suitors would be very long, you can be certain of that

Matthews makes $2M more per year while providing nothing besides scoring. And no, no team is going to give you a sweetener, large or otherwise, to pay for your mistake in overpaying Matthews - bringing his contract down to fair value in order to make him tradeable is entirely on the Leafs.

As for the “very long” lineup of potential suitors for Matthews, who exactly does that include? Rebuilding teams are out as he has only one year left on his deal. And what contender has a spare $11.6M in cap space that they can spend on someone who isn’t worth nearly that much? The fact is without retention Matthews has negative value due to his vastly overinflated contract, and any trade of him is going to involve retention and/or a cap dump coming back*, either to Toronto or to a third party that Toronto would be paying to take that on for them.

* A third possibility is Matthews for two players who are both overpaid by a couple million each and whose combined cap hit balances out Matthews’; in this case rather than the cap dump being a separate entity in the trade it would be built into the return itself, but it would still involve wasted cap space coming back to Toronto in some form.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

He comes with a 12m$ price tag. Ouch.

 

[Legion34]

He just openly said he wants an extension and it’s important to get it done before the season starts.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I know this is so unlikely to happen, basically zero chance, but if he would waive his NMC, Zibanejad for Matthews.

 

[Nowotny]

Not only that... but he's still only 25 years old.

The reality is, if the Leafs put Matthews on the block, there will probably be a list of upwards of 20 teams making calls... simply because it will probably be the only chance to get a player of his ilk.

From a Leaf standpoint, given that they'd be trying to turn around and continue being contenders, they have to be somewhat specific on the package. It needs to include somebody who is around Matthews age, or younger, that can comfortably slot in as a top 6 C on a contender.

The package also needs to include something to satisfy some of the other areas of the roster -- whether that's a big defenceman, a goalie... certainly can be up for debate.

If you're looking at Arizona, I'd imagine it's a package of Barrett Hayton, Lawson Crouse , Conor Geekie and a pick or two.

Before everyone jumps in and says "they'll just wait for him to become UFA"... it's not that simple. The Coyotes need a rink, and they kind of need the deal done this summer. Getting Auston Matthews, likely gets them their rink.

There is also the risk / reality, that if AZ doesn't step up to the plate on a trade, that the Leafs could go and trade him to LA, or some other reasonably desirable destination, and that team turns around and gives him something to the tune of $14 x 8.

Hayton,Crouse,Geekie and pick or two for 1 year of Matthews?Why don't we just throw in 300 days of sunshine per year and some Saguaro Cactus for a good measure?Did you notice that Arizona is a rebuilding franchise that is in the stage of accumulating young players not trading them away?Even if proposition for new arena passes (and we all hope it will) Coyotes will still be playing in 4800 seats arena for 3 years.Even signing Matthews to mega deal ($13.5 mil. for 8 years) makes no sense because it would destroy salary structure for years to come.Coyotes drafted lots of young players and will continue to do so.Chances are some of them will end up being good players and will need to be resigned to long term contracts when their rookie contracts expire.
So guys....try not to look at us the way NFL teams are looking at CFL teams and wish us good luck so those propositions pass and we can keep our team

 

[Hockeyholic]

Worst case scenario for the Leafs is Matthews indicates he wants to be back. July 1st hits (Leafs can't sign him before July 1st) and then he changes his mind. At that point he could not be traded without his permission.

I know this is so unlikely to happen, basically zero chance, but if he would waive his NMC, Zibanejad for Matthews.

Can NYR fit Matthews under salary cap without Toronto retaining on Matthews?

 

[Haatley]

And yet, Matthew Tkachuk who had just 15 points in 27 playoff games when he was traded last offseason and one year left on his deal was easily moved.

I’m not suggesting the cap is not difficult, but there’s it’s hard to see a world where Toronto (in this hypothetical trade scenario) is retaining on Matthews without a large sweetener.

If Matthews were made available the lineup of serious suitors would be very long, you can be certain of that

The difference between Matthews and Tkachuk is Tkachuk does things to help the team even when he isnt scoring.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Worst case scenario for the Leafs is Matthews indicates he wants to be back. July 1st hits (Leafs can't sign him before July 1st) and then he changes his mind. At that point he could not be traded without his permission.


Can NYR fit Matthews under salary cap without Toronto retaining on Matthews?

If they buyout or trade Goodrow which is likely to happen, yeah. I know it's not gonna happen I just want to see the reactions to the idea of it though lol.

 

[OMG67]

Not only that... but he's still only 25 years old.

The reality is, if the Leafs put Matthews on the block, there will probably be a list of upwards of 20 teams making calls... simply because it will probably be the only chance to get a player of his ilk.

From a Leaf standpoint, given that they'd be trying to turn around and continue being contenders, they have to be somewhat specific on the package. It needs to include somebody who is around Matthews age, or younger, that can comfortably slot in as a top 6 C on a contender.

The package also needs to include something to satisfy some of the other areas of the roster -- whether that's a big defenceman, a goalie... certainly can be up for debate.

If you're looking at Arizona, I'd imagine it's a package of Barrett Hayton, Lawson Crouse , Conor Geekie and a pick or two.

Before everyone jumps in and says "they'll just wait for him to become UFA"... it's not that simple. The Coyotes need a rink, and they kind of need the deal done this summer. Getting Auston Matthews, likely gets them their rink.

There is also the risk / reality, that if AZ doesn't step up to the plate on a trade, that the Leafs could go and trade him to LA, or some other reasonably desirable destination, and that team turns around and gives him something to the tune of $14 x 8.

Matthews is t going UFA out of Toronto. Leafs will trade him I signed. Imagine the shit show in the media of 34 played a year without a contract? Never going to happen.