Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman -V - all still silent

[wintersej]

The "credentials" argument is never going to be resolved here. There are 2 different philosophies about paying players:

1)Pay players for what they've done thus far in their careers- The rationale for this is you are paying a player for their actual demonstrated (and possible sustained) level of performance. The downside/risk is that you are paying a player for performance already gone and not necessarily for what they are going to do while under that new contract.

2) Pay players for what you think they are going to do under that new contract- The rationale is that you don't want to pay a player for what they've done in the past, but rather what they'll be. Locking a young player long term while "overpaying" in the first couple years is that you trust this player is going to outperform their contract and you won't have to worry about the UFA years when the price would be even higher. The risk is the player doesn't turn out to be what you think he is.

Teams in the past have typically gone for #1. This means you usually "win" on most of your contracts on young players and RFAs, but lose on older players and UFAs, because they are either no longer worth the $ as soon as they sign that contract and almost never going forward.

Many teams are now moving towards #2. See the recent contracts of Dylan Guenther and Seth Jarvis. Teams are betting on guys they've identified as cornerstone pieces and locking them up. It means they might be overpaying for the 1st couple years but will potentially have bargains as they get to what would have been the 3rd contract.

There's lots of issues I have with the people arguing for the #1 type philosophy but there's one main issue I have with it in regards to Swayman, and it's this:
The huge majority of people now saying Swayman hasn't proven anything and doesn't "deserve" to be paid like a top 5 goalie are the same people who all during the season were talking about Swayman being a top 5 goalie and an untouchable player on the team. They were all for trading a vezina winning Ullmark in order to clear the way for Sway. There was almost no talk of "Well maybe we shouldn't... maybe Sway can't handle a 60 game load.

I'd just like to imagine this scenario- All goalies in the NHL are miraculously made UFAs. Name all of the goalies you'd take ahead of Swayman to be your goalie for the next 8 years.

So I think you are missing huge pieces in this analysis.

The volatility of the goaltender position vs other positions. Half of the top six paid goalies this year had average to below average seasons relative to average starting goalies. lts like if some years Pasta scored 60 goals and some years he scored 20. If forwards were that swingy I doubt Seth Jarvis would be getting such an early commitment. That volatility has been baked into goalie contracts. A few have broken through to 8, 9, 10 million dollar deals after proving over multiple seasons they were more consistent than the pack, but even those guys like Vasi, Bob, Sorokin, etc have had pretty mediocre to even bad seasons with those big AAVs. It’s just a totally different ball game in net projecting guys.

I mean shit, a year ago people would have called you crazy for suggesting 8x8 for Swayman. Shit, before the playoffs no one was calling Swayman a top 5 netminder. Making a big bet based on recency bias is how Nurse got a 9.5m deal.

All that is why all the comps for Swayman are in the sixes. That volatility has been built into the price for goalies of Swayman’s resume. Even at 6.5 AAV, he would be the sixth highest paid goalie in the league, it’s not like that is squeezing him. Should Swayman sign for 8 years at that number? Nope, just like Saros, Helly, Demko, etc didn’t. They all took medium term deals to cash in again later.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

Goalies can be like MLB relief pitchers year to year. Just look at the stats from Bobrovsky's career.
This has been a big part of my Bob is not a 1st ballot HOF'er, IMHO. He's had as many really bad, lower 3rd years, as Top 3 years. Screams head case. Even this cup run, his performance had consistency issues.

 

[NDiesel]

Sorokin signed a bridge deal for his 3rd career contract.

All I'm saying is if you look at the stats and game played numbers when he signed that 8 year deal, it's the closest I could find to being comparable to Sway

 

[UncleRico]

So I think you are missing huge pieces in this analysis.

The volatility of the goaltender position vs other positions. Half of the top six paid goalies this year had average to below average seasons relative to average starting goalies. lts like if some years Pasta scored 60 goals and some years he scored 20. If forwards were that swingy I doubt Seth Jarvis would be getting such an early commitment. That volatility has been baked into goalie contracts. A few have broken through to 8, 9, 10 million dollar deals after proving over multiple seasons they were more consistent than the pack, but even those guys like Vasi, Bob, Sorokin, etc have had pretty mediocre to even bad seasons with those big AAVs. It’s just a totally different ball game in net projecting guys.

I mean shit, a year ago people would have called you crazy for suggesting 8x8 for Swayman. Shit, before the playoffs no one was calling Swayman a top 5 netminder. Making a big bet based on recency bias is how Nurse got a 9.5m deal.

All that is why all the comps for Swayman are in the sixes. That volatility has been built into the price for goalies of Swayman’s resume. Even at 6.5 AAV, he would be the sixth highest paid goalie in the league, it’s not like that is squeezing him. Should Swayman sign for 8 years at that number? Nope, just like Saros, Helly, Demko, etc didn’t. They all took medium term deals to cash in again later.

Your comparables are just way off is the issue. It’s no where near the same situation

Saros, Helly and Demko all signed deals the same offseason that they had pending arbitration hearings.

Arbiters almost always split the players offer and the teams offer down the middle. There is incentives for the player to take a bridge deal because the bridge deals are usually slightly more than the AAV the arbiter is going to award them.

Swayman doesn’t have an upcoming arbitration hearing where an arbiter is going to determine his pay. So there is no incentive for swayman to sign a bridge deal like there was for Saros, Helly or Demko. Swayman is free to negotiate any contract he wants without a pending 3rd party decision.

You are comparing apples to oranges.

It’s tough because I haven’t found a single comparable to a goalie who had RFA years, but neither team elected for arbitration.

Swaymans current situation is much closer to a UFA’s than it is someone with a pending arbitration hearing.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

IMHO, a 4-year deal would be a "bridge" deal for Swayman's ascendance from potential stud to stud.
He'd be 29-30yo going into his last and probably 7-8 year deal. There, if the performance warrants, he could ask for the moon.
(I realize most people think of a bridge deal as a 2 year deal)

 

[Hookslide]

None of those players were known well enough to them this time last year - or even at the end of camp - to plug them in the lineup. I wasn’t saying they weren’t Bruins property. I was saying that looking back and putting a third line together in October of Brazeau-Poitras-Boqvist is pretty hilarious. Just to sign a goalie who is three years away from UFA. People would have lost their ever loving minds if that was the lineup they rolled out.

Well put

 

[Hookslide]

Yeah, it would have been an absurd contract.

Sway's agent completely mishandled last summer. No way he should have ever actually had an arbitration hearing. The arbitrator almost always comes down right in the middle. the agent should have had his client sign the contract for a middle number without having the sensitive client deal with the cold hard facts.

Unfortunately in general it would appear Sways agent just plain sucks at his job

Don't just put the blame on Sway and his agent, but maybe his business professor should be scrutinized.

 

[DKH]

Goalies can be like MLB relief pitchers year to year. Just look at the stats from Bobrovsky's career.
This has been a big part of my Bob is not a 1st ballot HOF'er, IMHO. He's had as many really bad, lower 3rd years, as Top 3 years. Screams head case. Even this cup run, his performance had consistency issues.

Bang on

Florida held their parade in a mall parking lot - they couldn’t sell out playoff games

Bob suuuuuuuuucked a few years making $10 M and was replaced by Alex Lyyyyyohhhhn (or if you live in the North Shore ~ Lion)

Has Spencer Knight not had issues and a 3/13.5 M contract and Bob a $10 M unmovable contract he’s never ever around in 2023 and 2024 to slay the Broons

many fans make Mall store goldfish have memories like elephants or ex-wives

I see Bill Zito floating at or near the top of top GMs

IMAGINATION WORLD

Imagine Donny Hockey signing an unproductive & unmovable Bobrovsky to a long term 10 M per year contract ? And Spencer Knight to a 3 year deal $4.5 M per year deal, and what seems like once the first check cleared he had issues he could no longer play - not sure if it was alcohol or anxiety or at the intersection where they cross

so nobody knew ? Zito had no idea

But it’s Florida

In Boston I think Zito is no longer with us

I’m team Sway but I get 6 max and why even 4 discussed

He’s already blown off a bunch of yutes TWICE and the skeptical me wasn’t even buying the first

Earth to Sway and your posse if you read this - you got a lot of people who are not happy with you ~ you screw over 20 kids who have parents and paid for this in the days of social media and FB

I knew about this story day 1 because I was at one of them lol with my friends and kids so spare me the spin shit

Hopefully he signs here but I get why the Bruins are apparently at 6 years while Sway wants 8 M

6/50 I think is a great deal
He’s my choice for best young goalie

But he’s never around unless it’s on an island or playing guitar with his hat on backwards

Every Bruins event gathering where is he ?

And as an old school person raised on Cherry Bruins I don’t need to hear about taking classes and how mean they were comparing you to Vladar

Seriously if this place is stifling and run by mean people do what Necas is doing ~ get 2 years and explore the goalie world

He’s been fantastic on the ice but disappointing off it

 

[Hookslide]

Yay play-offs! When as Bruins fans did you accept making the play-offs as a successful season? When did you guys become so apathetic?

Where was it mentioned that a successful season was making the playoffs, no where that I can see. I have read some posts they might not make the playoffs.

 

[UncleRico]

Don't just put the blame on Sway and his agent, but maybe his business professor should be scrutinized.

It’s Sweeneys fault swayman wasnt signed to a bridge deal last year ahead of arbitration.

Bruins could not afford to give swayman a bridge deal because they didn’t have cap space due to the bergy/krejci bonus carryover impacting last years cap.

If the bruins had the $4.5 million in cap that the bergy/krejci bonuses were taking up from the previous season, then swayman is likely offered a bridge deal by the bruins.

Sweeney and company knew the moment they signed bergy/krejci to those one year bonus deals, that they wouldn’t be able to give swayman a bridge deal.

 

[Hookslide]

It’s Sweeneys fault swayman wasnt signed to a bridge deal last year ahead of arbitration.

Bruins could not afford to give swayman a bridge deal because they didn’t have cap space due to the bergy/krejci bonus carryover impacting last years cap.

If the bruins had the $4.5 million in cap that the bergy/krejci bonuses were taking up from the previous season, then swayman is likely offered a bridge deal by the bruins.

The bonuses did hamper the cap space, but I said at the time brining Krecji, back was a mistake.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

It’s Sweeneys fault swayman wasnt signed to a bridge deal last year ahead of arbitration.

Bruins could not afford to give swayman a bridge deal because they didn’t have cap space due to the bergy/krejci bonus carryover impacting last years cap.

If the bruins had the $4.5 million in cap that the bergy/krejci bonuses were taking up from the previous season, then swayman is likely offered a bridge deal by the bruins.

The rhetorical question is....if the "all i" year of record breaking performance ended with a Cup, would last year cap issues, been acceptable?
I believe most of us would have been ok with it.
That cap hell definitely caused them to delay dealing with Swayman, resigning Bert, and other moves that would have kept the natives happier.

 

[UncleRico]

The bonuses did hamper the cap space, but I said at the time brining Krecji, back was a mistake.

Agreed I was against both moves at the time.

Sweeney knew he wouldn’t be able to offer swayman a bridge deal because of it and it’s a gamble they took.

This has nothing to do with swaymans agent really. As bruins management knew this would be the most likely outcome two years ago when they made the bergy/krejci signings.

The rhetorical question is....if the "all i" year of record breaking performance ended with a Cup, would last year cap issues, been acceptable?
I believe most of us would have been ok with it.
That cap hell definitely caused them to delay dealing with Swayman, resigning Bert, and other moves that would have kept the natives happier.

I’m not here to say if that was the right or wrong decision.

I’m just saying that the moment the bruins signed bergy/krejci, Bruins management knew they wouldn’t be able to give swayman a bridge deal last year.

This current outcome was predetermined two years ago when bergy and krejci got those deals.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

Rico, you are a realist. That why, even when we disagree, I respect reading your takes.

 

[DKH]

Rico, you are a realist. That why, even when we disagree, I respect reading your takes.

Rico should replace Bertrand 10-2. He has opinions and sports knowledge and isn’t trolling

There’s a handful here who are superior to media guys

Everett Mike should have the Globe Saturday column where he can do a singular issue if he’s landing there or bounce around

When I was a kid McDonagh did this was fantastic way to start weekend on the couch

 

[UncleRico]

Rico should replace Bertrand 10-2. He has opinions and sports knowledge and isn’t trolling

There’s a handful here who are superior to media guys

Everett Mike should have the Globe Saturday column where he can do a singular issue if he’s landing there or bounce around

When I was a kid McDonagh did this was fantastic way to start weekend on the couch

Rico, you are a realist. That why, even when we disagree, I respect reading your takes.

You guys are being far too nice to me haha but thank you for the kind words!

 

[EverettMike]

Rico should replace Bertrand 10-2. He has opinions and sports knowledge and isn’t trolling

There’s a handful here who are superior to media guys

Everett Mike should have the Globe Saturday column where he can do a singular issue if he’s landing there or bounce around

When I was a kid McDonagh did this was fantastic way to start weekend on the couch

Flattery will get you everywhere.

 

[Chaos2k7]

Bang on

Florida held their parade in a mall parking lot - they couldn’t sell out playoff games

Bob suuuuuuuuucked a few years making $10 M and was replaced by Alex Lyyyyyohhhhn (or if you live in the North Shore ~ Lion)

Has Spencer Knight not had issues and a 3/13.5 M contract and Bob a $10 M unmovable contract he’s never ever around in 2023 and 2024 to slay the Broons

many fans make Mall store goldfish have memories like elephants or ex-wives

I see Bill Zito floating at or near the top of top GMs

IMAGINATION WORLD

Imagine Donny Hockey signing an unproductive & unmovable Bobrovsky to a long term 10 M per year contract ? And Spencer Knight to a 3 year deal $4.5 M per year deal, and what seems like once the first check cleared he had issues he could no longer play - not sure if it was alcohol or anxiety or at the intersection where they cross

so nobody knew ? Zito had no idea

But it’s Florida

In Boston I think Zito is no longer with us

I’m team Sway but I get 6 max and why even 4 discussed

He’s already blown off a bunch of yutes TWICE and the skeptical me wasn’t even buying the first

Earth to Sway and your posse if you read this - you got a lot of people who are not happy with you ~ you screw over 20 kids who have parents and paid for this in the days of social media and FB

I knew about this story day 1 because I was at one of them lol with my friends and kids so spare me the spin shit

Hopefully he signs here but I get why the Bruins are apparently at 6 years while Sway wants 8 M

6/50 I think is a great deal
He’s my choice for best young goalie

But he’s never around unless it’s on an island or playing guitar with his hat on backwards

Every Bruins event gathering where is he ?

And as an old school person raised on Cherry Bruins I don’t need to hear about taking classes and how mean they were comparing you to Vladar

Seriously if this place is stifling and run by mean people do what Necas is doing ~ get 2 years and explore the goalie world

He’s been fantastic on the ice but disappointing off it

Stick to the Bruins takes buddy, because your Panthers knowledge has many, many holes in it.

Here's hoping the B's get Swayman signed.

 

[DKH]

S

Flattery will get you everywhere.

haha

My daughter is a bigger fan lol

I’m into Marvel, GoT, Harry Potter etc because A I like that stuff but B.The two girls it all started in their childhood and I was in charge of entertainment so I got hooked reading and watching all this. (I just watched Deadpool & Wolverine Tuesday at theatre)

Plus for those here that don’t know you cover all that stuff beautifully

But you can hop all over between this form of entertainment and sports which is in my view a gift - you don’t get the combination of the quality and takes

 

[DKH]

Stick to the Bruins takes buddy, because your Panthers knowledge has many, many holes in it.

Here's hoping the B's get Swayman signed.

Yeh I don’t think so - I probably been to more Panthers games in Florida then 90 % that were at Finals

And I’ve probably seen them live in my life 100 times easy

And if this was 1970 and Monte Hall pulled me out of the audience and told me he would give me $100 for every current player I could name off top of my head in walking out of there with 2 grand

I’ve got a handful of Panthers 50 signed & unsigned players on my SIM team so I kind of know my Panthers better then 99% of Panthers folks

If you are that 1% congrats

 

[Hookslide]

You guys are being far too nice to me haha but thank you for the kind words!

You want me to bring you back to earth...........haha

 

[Mad-Marcus]

Winning and Florida sports fans, outside of football, is analogous to mosquitoes and blood. They come around when it's there, otherwise you don't notice them.

You want me to bring you back to earth...........haha

Please, I'm just fishing for "likes".