Tribute Auston Matthews Discussion Thread II: Record Breaking Edition

[Throw More Waffles]

Players do tend to have more leverage in UFA situations, and UFA contracts tend to be higher for a number of reasons - which leverage is one of, but the disparity in leverage tends to get massively exaggerated, especially for top tier players that hold significant leverage in any situation, because they are significant parts of a team that cannot be replaced by just cap space.

That also doesn't equate to them getting paid inconsistently with the history of UFA contracts, so it's unclear how you're trying to add that in.

Those took things to extremes, but they are actually a good illustration of how the ages that contracts run through affect cap hit, which adds a counterbalance to things like leverage disparities.

Marner had massive amounts of leverage when he held out for 10.9m - an amount consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. I expect him to similarly want a contract consistent with the history of UFA contracts.

Why didn't all of the others players that didn't?

Why didn't Matthews sign 11.6 over eight years? Why only 5?

Isn't the argument that adding 3 extra ufa years onto his contract would significantly raise his aav?

Gee, why's that Dekes? Why are bridge deals so low in aav compared to if that player signed for 8 years?

It's almost as if ufa years add a ton of aav to a rfa contract. It's almost as though ufa years are worth a LOT more aav than rfa years. It's almost as though Matthews wanted to get to his ufa contract as early as possible, in order to maximize his earning potential.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Why didn't Matthews sign 11.6 over eight years? Why only 5?

Isn't the argument that adding 3 extra ufa years onto his contract would significantly raise his aav?

Gee, why's that Dekes? Why are bridge deals so low in aav compared to if that player signed for 8 years?

It's almost as if ufa years add a ton of aav to a rfa contract. It's almost as though ufa years are worth a LOT more aav than rfa years. It's almost as though Matthews wanted to get to his ufa contract as early as possible, in order to maximize his earning potential.

At the time of Matthews contract extension, Bob McKenzie reported Matthews was willing to sign for 8 years, however he wanted north of Connor McDavid's $12.5 million AAV by $1 million more.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

At the time of Matthews contract extension, Bob McKenzie reported Matthews was willing to sign for 8 years, however he wanted north of Connor McDavid's $12.5 million AAV by $1 million more.

Yep. That's my point.

So ufa years are worth more than rfa years.

Matthews seems to have demanded around 11 mil for his rfa years. And around 15 mil for his ufa years.

Here's for 5 years:
(4 rfa years) 11x4=44 mil + (one ufa year) 15x1 = 59mil total
59/5=11.8 aav (close enough).

Now for the 8 years you outline above.
11x4=44 mil + 15x4=60 44+60=104
104/8= 13mil aav (close enough).

So I'd have to spend more time nickel and diming to make it worth perfectly.

But Matthews negotiated approximately 11 mil for his rfa years and 15 mil for his ufa years. Seems he might want around 15 mil after next season....

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yep. That's my point.

So ufa years are worth more than rfa years.

Matthews seems to have demanded around 11 mil for his rfa years. And around 15 mil for his ufa years.

Here's for 5 years:
(4 rfa years) 11x4=44 mil + (one ufa year) 15x1 = 59mil total
59/5=11.8 aav (close enough).

Now for the 8 years you outline above.
11x4=44 mil + 15x4=60 44+60=104
104/8= 13mil aav (close enough).

So I'd have to spend more time nickel and diming to make it worth perfectly.

But Matthews negotiated approximately 11 mil for his rfa years and 15 mil for his ufa years. Seems he might want around 15 mil after next season....

Instead of using Connor McDavid's contract as an example, I wonder how much Dubas tried to use Jack Eichel's 8 year/$10 million AAV contract during the negotiations, if he was to sign for 8 years instead of 5 years? Long before Matthews signed his contract, I want to say that Eichel was the best example to have used, with Matthews still getting a little more money than him.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Jeff Marek Show: Does Matthews hold all the cards in extension talks with Maple Leafs?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why didn't Matthews sign 11.6 over eight years? Why only 5?
Isn't the argument that adding 3 extra ufa years onto his contract would significantly raise his aav?
Gee, why's that Dekes? Why are bridge deals so low in aav compared to if that player signed for 8 years?

Matthews signed for 11.6m over 5 years instead of 8 years because that's what he was worth at 5 years.
They went 5 years - the most common post-ELC term for players of his caliber - so that they could fit everybody in.
8 years would have been a bit more expensive, because you're buying more of the valuable mid-late 20s seasons.
Bridge deals are cheaper because you're removing the most valuable seasons.
Not sure what this has to do with what seems to be your belief that our players are going to take amounts inconsistent with the history of UFA contracts.

 

[kb]

Don't be surprised or annoyed if it is pushing $13+ million.

Matthews signed for 11.6m over 5 years instead of 8 years because that's what he was worth at 5 years.
They went 5 years - the most common post-ELC term for players of his caliber - so that they could fit everybody in.
8 years would have been a bit more expensive, because you're buying more of the valuable mid-late 20s seasons.
Bridge deals are cheaper because you're removing the most valuable seasons.
Not sure what this has to do with what seems to be your belief that our players are going to take amounts inconsistent with the history of UFA contracts.

It's just a continuation his wholly wrong take that he seems to enjoy wearing proudly like a badge of (dis)honour. lool

 

[Confucius]

Not exactly, the Leafs still haven't optimized him on the powerplay the way you see with guys like Mackinnon, McDavid, prime Ovi and Drai.

Matthews could be far scarier on the powerplay ala Ovi/Stamkos. The issue is you need a threat from the point. Marner is great as pp QB, you don't need Rielly. All he does is swing the puck from Nylander to Matthews, no team is worried about his shot from that distance. What made Ovi so dangerous was you had Backstrom (Marner), Kuznetsov (Nylander), and then Carlson's bomb from the point, the Leafs don't have that so players can cheat onto Nylander or Matthews which takes their space away. Having a threat from Rielly's position would change so much for their powerplay.

I think there isn’t one player in league history that scored more goals in his 2nd 8 years than he did in his 1st 8 years. But I guess who knows, Mathews may be the 1st to do it…

 

[LeafsNation75]

Matthews signed for 11.6m over 5 years instead of 8 years because that's what he was worth at 5 years.
They went 5 years - the most common post-ELC term for players of his caliber - so that they could fit everybody in.
8 years would have been a bit more expensive, because you're buying more of the valuable mid-late 20s seasons.
Bridge deals are cheaper because you're removing the most valuable seasons.
Not sure what this has to do with what seems to be your belief that our players are going to take amounts inconsistent with the history of UFA contracts.

While it's true that 5 years was most common for a player after their ELC, I think if Matthews and Leafs management were willing to do this, they could have agreed to a similar contract of 8 years and just over $10 million AAV.

Like I said before Jack Eichel had already signed for 8 years/$10 million AAV with Buffalo, so that was the best comparable to have used, with Matthews getting more money since he was already a better player than Eichel.

 

[Dekes For Days]

While it's true that 5 years was most common for a player after their ELC, I think if Matthews and Leafs management were willing to do this, they could have agreed to a similar contract of 8 years and just over $10 million AAV. Like I said before Jack Eichel had already signed for 8 years/$10 million AAV with Buffalo, so that was the best comparable to have used, with Matthews getting more money since he was already a better player than Eichel.

Eichel signed under a lower cap, so even an equivalent contract would have been more than just over 10m, and I don't think a lot of people really realize the gap that existed between Eichel and Matthews as players. They'd been compared a lot as high-drafted American centers, so people like to force them as comparables, but there was really no comparison between them. Matthews was in a whole different tier, and still is.

 

[Mess]

Why didn't Matthews sign 11.6 over eight years? Why only 5?

Isn't the argument that adding 3 extra ufa years onto his contract would significantly raise his aav?

It's almost as if ufa years add a ton of aav to a rfa contract. It's almost as though ufa years are worth a LOT more aav than rfa years. It's almost as though Matthews wanted to get to his ufa contract as early as possible, in order to maximize his earning potential.

Read this tweet and it will and should make all Leaf fans blood in anger over their current GM ..

Matthews turned down this Leafs’ offer​

According to Friedman, the Leafs wanted to sign Matthews to a three-year bridge deal that would’ve taken him one year away from unrestricted free agency. However, Matthews’ camp was seeking a $9M annual hit, which the Leafs weren’t interested in doing.



In the end as we know, Mathews finally agreed to a five-year contract back in February. The deal is worth $58.17 million, meaning Matthews will have an annual salary cap hit of $11.634 million beginning in 2019-20 and running through the 2023-24 campaign.

What this suggests is Dubas attempted to get Matthews signed to a 3 year bridge deal that would have seen him end as an RFA.. Matthews wanted $9 mil AAV per for his RFA cost controllable years , which Dubas wasn't interested in paying.

Coming out of an ELC everyone knows the next 4 years are at RFA status and then years 5-8 (last 4) are at UFA status which is where you're buying UFA away and the most costly years. Also Matthews signed a 5 year deal worth $58.17 mil.

So now lets break down his current 5 year deal using Matthews $9 mil ask for RFA years.

Year #1 ($9 mil RFA) + Year #2 ($9 mil RFA) + Year #3 ($9 mil RFA) which Matthews would have signed = $27 mil for 3 year bridge deal.
Now add the 2 extra years Leafs got.

RFA years 1-3 = $27 mil ($9mil per) + year #4 RFA @ same $9mil rate + year #5 UFA years cost ?? = total contract 5 years @ $58.17 mil..

Solve for the cost of the UFA year .. $9+9+9+9 = $36 mil for 4 RFA years - $58.17 mil (total contract) = So 1 X UFA value year purchased by Leafs @ $22.17 mil relative value.

However with averaging for AAV and cap purposes 5 years @ $58.17 = $11.634 mil per X 5.

For comparison purposes when the McDavid deal when signed to set the ceiling it was described as 4 X RFA years @ $10 mil value + 4 UFA years @ $15 mil = $100 mil over 8 years = $12.5 mil AAV per. In order for McDavid to receive $10 mil per RFA year he had to surrender 4 UFA years offset at $15 mil per.

So how do you like 4 RFA years @ $9mil value + 1 UFA year @ $22.15 mil = $58.17 mil over 5 years = $11.634 mil per in comparison.
Even is you use the exact same template as McDavid contract and $10 mil for RFA years = $10 mil +$10 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil + $18.17 mil 1 X UFA year = $58.17 over 5 mil.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Eichel signed under a lower cap, so even an equivalent contract would have been more than just over 10m, and I don't think a lot of people really realize the gap that existed between Eichel and Matthews as players. They'd been compared a lot as high-drafted American centers, so people like to force them as comparables, but there was really no comparison between them. Matthews was in a whole different tier, and still is.

The difference is when McDavid signed his 8 year/$12.5 million contract, he was coming off winning the Art Ross, Hart Trophy, and Ted Lindsay Award in 2017.

When Matthews signed his contract extension the only things he done at that time was winning the Calder Trophy and scoring 40 goals in his rookie season.

That's why Eichel was seen as the better contract comparable for Matthews to get if he was to sign for 8 years. I don't think any Leafs fans realistically thought Matthews would have got the same amount of money that McDavid was getting.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The difference is when McDavid signed his 8 year/$12.5 million contract, he was coming off winning the Art Ross, Hart Trophy, and Ted Lindsay Award in 2017.
When Matthews signed his contract extension the only things he done at that time was winning the Calder Trophy and scoring 40 goals in his rookie season.
That's why Eichel was seen as the better contract comparable for Matthews to get if he was to sign for 8 years.

McDavid signed under a lower cap, so 12.5m does not represent what an equivalent contract would look like for Matthews. Even at 8 years, Matthews would have been below McDavid's post-discount cap hit percentage. Matthews' pre-signing period was also not as dissimilar from McDavid's as many like to pretend, and Matthews was certainly much, much closer to McDavid than he was to Eichel - who wasn't even remotely in the same tier as McDavid/Matthews.

The issue that many run into when trying to use McDavid as a comparable, especially his post-discount cap hit percentage that wouldn't be valid to use as a comparable, is that by the exclusive (and ridiculously simplistic) criteria many demand to use, McDavid would be a massive outlier, and arguably the best post-ELC contract ever, so it doesn't really work to use it in the pursuit of calling other contracts bad.

 

[IPS]

Read this tweet and it will and should make all Leaf fans blood in anger over their current GM ..

My blood isn't boiling over the Leafs not doing that contract with Matthews. In hindsight, that is a truly awful way to approach Matthews' first contract. And I'm sure you would have still done your whole instigating argument shtick all the same if that's the contract he was.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Why would they offer Matthews a bridge deal? Thats a slap in the face, if Dubas wanted that. Matthews scored 40 as a rookie and in Year 2 and 3, was on pace for 50. After 3 years of that, id be stunned/disrespected with that offer. Regardless, Matthews could be traded this summer with 1 yr left on his deal and not wanting to resign an extension.

 

[LeafsNation75]

McDavid signed under a lower cap, so 12.5m does not represent what an equivalent contract would look like for Matthews. Even at 8 years, Matthews would have been below McDavid's post-discount cap hit percentage. Matthews' pre-signing period was also not as dissimilar from McDavid's as many like to pretend, and Matthews was certainly much, much closer to McDavid than he was to Eichel - who wasn't even remotely in the same tier as McDavid/Matthews.

The issue that many run into when trying to use McDavid as a comparable, especially his post-discount cap hit percentage that wouldn't be valid to use as a comparable, is that by the exclusive (and ridiculously simplistic) criteria many demand to use, McDavid would be a massive outlier, and arguably the best post-ELC contract ever, so it doesn't really work to use it in the pursuit of calling other contracts bad.

I agree that Matthews was better than Eichel during that time and he still is today.

I also said before that Matthews deserved to get paid more money than Eichel, which is what ended up happening.

I just wish that Matthews and the Leafs could have agreed to an 8 year contract instead of a 5 year contract, because in my opinion it was Eichel's contract that set bar for what Matthews contract should have looked like.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Why would they offer Matthews a bridge deal? Thats a slap in the face, if Dubas wanted that. Matthews scored 40 as a rookie and in Year 2 and 3, was on pace for 50. After 3 years of that, id be stunned/disrespected with that offer. Regardless, Matthews could be traded this summer with 1 yr left on his deal and not wanting to resign an extension.

Maybe to maximize the short window to put a cup contender together. Think about the three series post Mathews/Marner extensions. If we had both on bridge deals and saved $6M-7M and added a legit top 4 Dman or a legit top 6 forward think we could have beaten Columbus, or the Canadians, or the Lightning? I think so. Yeah Matthews would be making $14M-$15M now but we might have more to show for things than 6 first round exits.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Maybe to maximize the short window to put a cup contender together. Think about the three series post Mathews/Marner extensions. If we had both on bridge deals and saved $6M-7M and added a legit top 4 Dman or a legit top 6 forward think we could have beaten Columbus, or the Canadians, or the Lightning? I think so. Yeah Matthews would be making $14M-$15M now but we might have more to show for things than 6 first round exits.

Even if that happened in your hypothetical are you taking into account the flat salary cap because of Covid? Although that's one thing Dubas didn't see happening when Matthews signed his extension.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why would they offer Matthews a bridge deal?

I'm not sure who that random tweet with 6 likes paraphrasing somebody else is from, but it looks fake.
I've never heard of this, I can't find the original source or any mention of what it's claiming anywhere else, and the claim is quite illogical.
Not only would the Leafs be very, very unlikely to want to sign Matthews to a bridge, but if they were willing to sign him to a bridge, Matthews would want more than 9m.
That's the range that they were reportedly discussing for a Marner bridge, so why would that be the better player in Matthews' ask, and why would the Leafs scoff at it?
And why is random things about the negotiation being tweeted months after the signing in the first place?
This doesn't add up. Either the tweet is fake, Freidman is wrong, or something got lost in translation.
Of course, Mess was also wrong in trying to claim that every RFA year is worth the same amount, and every UFA year is worth the same amount. That's not how this works.

 

[Sypher04]

I’m sure we all wish Matthews’ deal was longer as fans, but I can actually see, from an organizational perspective how 5 might actually might be preferable coming out of ELC, AAV impacts aside.

With his deal ending, we now can sign Matthew to an 8 year deal and not be buying any years that are 35+ AND big money where his effectiveness could be up in the air.

Whereas if we had gone 3, 8, and another 8 in a few years we are inevitably paying top dollar for years 35-37 instead of having the chance to re-sign him to an actually appropriate cap hit.

I don’t think that went into the planning, because that’s a long ways down the road, but it is a benefit

 

[Mess]

I’m sure we all wish Matthews’ deal was longer as fans, but I can actually see, from an organizational perspective how 5 might actually might be preferable coming out of ELC, AAV impacts aside.

With his deal ending, we now can sign Matthew to an 8 year deal and not be buying any years that are 35+ AND big money where his effectiveness could be up in the air.

Whereas if we had gone 3, 8, and another 8 in a few years we are inevitably paying top dollar for years 35-37 instead of having the chance to re-sign him to an actually appropriate cap hit.

I don’t think that went into the planning, because that’s a long ways down the road, but it is a benefit

Why not 3 X ELC + 8 X prime years + then 5 golden years ?

Elliotte Friedman reported at the time Matthews was asking for $9 mil for his RFA years which would be the first 4 years of any 8 year deal.

Had the Leafs given him that, so for years 1-4 @ $9 mil RFA = $36 mil, then agreed even to something like $14 mil per year for his 4 X UFA years. (to buy his costly UFA years)

His 8 year deal would be have looked like $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $14 mil + $14 mil + $14 mil + $14 mil = $92 mil over 8 season = $11.5 mil AAV

Leafs would have Matthews under contract for 3 additional costly UFA years at $11.5 mil and at a Cap hit % just slightly lower than C.H.% 14.64 (based on $11.634 mil AAV).

This would have made him the 2nd highest NHL contract using the McDavid 8 year $100 mil / $12.5 mil AAV as the ceiling.

Instead Leafs are looking to re-sign him at what $14-15 mil for the next 8 with the same AAV? What if he walks away a 27 year old UFA to join NYR or LA ?

Everybody on the planet at the time of his contract said they could live with the $11.6 mil AAV but the contract in 3 years too short based on that cost and buying only 1 year of free agency status. To get the $11.6 mil over his RFA years he would have to sacrifice all 4 his UFA years, then based on averaging out over the longer term,

 

[Dekes For Days]

What not 3 X ELC + 8 X prime years + then 5 golden years ?

Then you'd be paying a premium for the 8 years out of ELC, and also paying a premium on the next contract by signing at a higher cap and not using older age seasons to bring down the cost.

Elliotte Friedman reported at the time Matthews was asking for $9 mil for his RFA years which would be the first 4 years of any 8 year deal.

1. No, he didn't, and the claim - sourced from a random tweet with 6 likes months after the signing - is illogical for a number of reasons already discussed.
2. All RFAs years are not the same cost, and all UFA years are not the same cost, so you're also using this false information incorrectly. Your attempts at calculations are wrong.

Everybody on the planet at the time of his contract said they could live with the $11.6 mil AAV but the contract in 3 years too short based on that cost

The cap hit is appropriate for that term, based on the history of post-ELC contracts, and 5 years is the most common term for players of that caliber.

 

[ACC1224]

Read this tweet and it will and should make all Leaf fans blood in anger over their current GM ..

Matthews turned down this Leafs’ offer​

According to Friedman, the Leafs wanted to sign Matthews to a three-year bridge deal that would’ve taken him one year away from unrestricted free agency. However, Matthews’ camp was seeking a $9M annual hit, which the Leafs weren’t interested in doing.



In the end as we know, Mathews finally agreed to a five-year contract back in February. The deal is worth $58.17 million, meaning Matthews will have an annual salary cap hit of $11.634 million beginning in 2019-20 and running through the 2023-24 campaign.

What this suggests is Dubas attempted to get Matthews signed to a 3 year bridge deal that would have seen him end as an RFA.. Matthews wanted $9 mil AAV per for his RFA cost controllable years , which Dubas wasn't interested in paying.

Coming out of an ELC everyone knows the next 4 years are at RFA status and then years 5-8 (last 4) are at UFA status which is where you're buying UFA away and the most costly years. Also Matthews signed a 5 year deal worth $58.17 mil.

So now lets break down his current 5 year deal using Matthews $9 mil ask for RFA years.

Year #1 ($9 mil RFA) + Year #2 ($9 mil RFA) + Year #3 ($9 mil RFA) which Matthews would have signed = $27 mil for 3 year bridge deal.
Now add the 2 extra years Leafs got.

RFA years 1-3 = $27 mil ($9mil per) + year #4 RFA @ same $9mil rate + year #5 UFA years cost ?? = total contract 5 years @ $58.17 mil..

Solve for the cost of the UFA year .. $9+9+9+9 = $36 mil for 4 RFA years - $58.17 mil (total contract) = So 1 X UFA value year purchased by Leafs @ $22.17 mil relative value.

However with averaging for AAV and cap purposes 5 years @ $58.17 = $11.634 mil per X 5.

For comparison purposes when the McDavid deal when signed to set the ceiling it was described as 4 X RFA years @ $10 mil value + 4 UFA years @ $15 mil = $100 mil over 8 years = $12.5 mil AAV per. In order for McDavid to receive $10 mil per RFA year he had to surrender 4 UFA years offset at $15 mil per.

So how do you like 4 RFA years @ $9mil value + 1 UFA year @ $22.15 mil = $58.17 mil over 5 years = $11.634 mil per in comparison.
Even is you use the exact same template as McDavid contract and $10 mil for RFA years = $10 mil +$10 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil + $18.17 mil 1 X UFA year = $58.17 over 5 mil.

That's a big 'Yikes' if true, wouldn't surprise me.

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[LeafsNation75]

Great to see Matthews back in the lineup.