Tribute Auston Matthews Discussion Thread II: Record Breaking Edition

[LeafsNation75]

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[Its not your fault]

Why didn't Matthews sign 11.6 over eight years? Why only 5?

Isn't the argument that adding 3 extra ufa years onto his contract would significantly raise his aav?

Gee, why's that Dekes? Why are bridge deals so low in aav compared to if that player signed for 8 years?

It's almost as if ufa years add a ton of aav to a rfa contract. It's almost as though ufa years are worth a LOT more aav than rfa years. It's almost as though Matthews wanted to get to his ufa contract as early as possible, in order to maximize his earning potential.

Depends on there prime timeline you're buying. I know there's always some unpredictability but it's rather standard. Imagine even 1 more million a year added to that contract.

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[mapleleafs34]

Back like he never left. LFGGGGG

 

[MAB1]

He's re-signing with Toronto, save the countless arguments and enjoy your life.

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[ZEBROA]

Hope he finds his groove.

 

[Arzak]

He's re-signing with Toronto, save the countless arguments and enjoy your life.

How dare they? Discussing arguments for and against his resigning with Toronto, here on HFboards of all places...

You told them!

As you mentioned, countless arguments for him leaving vs he's resigning here don't jinx it opinion you provided..

 

[MAB1]

How dare they? Discussing arguments for and against his resigning with Toronto, here on HFboards of all places...

You told them!

As you mentioned, countless arguments for him leaving vs he's resigning here don't jinx it opinion you provided..

Just seen your posting history.

Good lord are you miserable af

 

[Petrus]

Read this tweet and it will and should make all Leaf fans blood in anger over their current GM ..

Matthews turned down this Leafs’ offer​

According to Friedman, the Leafs wanted to sign Matthews to a three-year bridge deal that would’ve taken him one year away from unrestricted free agency. However, Matthews’ camp was seeking a $9M annual hit, which the Leafs weren’t interested in doing.



In the end as we know, Mathews finally agreed to a five-year contract back in February. The deal is worth $58.17 million, meaning Matthews will have an annual salary cap hit of $11.634 million beginning in 2019-20 and running through the 2023-24 campaign.

What this suggests is Dubas attempted to get Matthews signed to a 3 year bridge deal that would have seen him end as an RFA.. Matthews wanted $9 mil AAV per for his RFA cost controllable years , which Dubas wasn't interested in paying.

Coming out of an ELC everyone knows the next 4 years are at RFA status and then years 5-8 (last 4) are at UFA status which is where you're buying UFA away and the most costly years. Also Matthews signed a 5 year deal worth $58.17 mil.

So now lets break down his current 5 year deal using Matthews $9 mil ask for RFA years.

Year #1 ($9 mil RFA) + Year #2 ($9 mil RFA) + Year #3 ($9 mil RFA) which Matthews would have signed = $27 mil for 3 year bridge deal.
Now add the 2 extra years Leafs got.

RFA years 1-3 = $27 mil ($9mil per) + year #4 RFA @ same $9mil rate + year #5 UFA years cost ?? = total contract 5 years @ $58.17 mil..

Solve for the cost of the UFA year .. $9+9+9+9 = $36 mil for 4 RFA years - $58.17 mil (total contract) = So 1 X UFA value year purchased by Leafs @ $22.17 mil relative value.

However with averaging for AAV and cap purposes 5 years @ $58.17 = $11.634 mil per X 5.

For comparison purposes when the McDavid deal when signed to set the ceiling it was described as 4 X RFA years @ $10 mil value + 4 UFA years @ $15 mil = $100 mil over 8 years = $12.5 mil AAV per. In order for McDavid to receive $10 mil per RFA year he had to surrender 4 UFA years offset at $15 mil per.

So how do you like 4 RFA years @ $9mil value + 1 UFA year @ $22.15 mil = $58.17 mil over 5 years = $11.634 mil per in comparison.
Even is you use the exact same template as McDavid contract and $10 mil for RFA years = $10 mil +$10 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil + $18.17 mil 1 X UFA year = $58.17 over 5 mil.

I appreciate the work above. Pre-COVID, the cap increased incrementally each year. Should that not be taken into consideration? For example the relative cost/value of 9m or 10m in year 1 is not the same in year 2 to 4.

 

[horner]

Matthews signed for 11.6m over 5 years instead of 8 years because that's what he was worth at 5 years.
They went 5 years - the most common post-ELC term for players of his caliber - so that they could fit everybody in.
8 years would have been a bit more expensive, because you're buying more of the valuable mid-late 20s seasons.
Bridge deals are cheaper because you're removing the most valuable seasons.
Not sure what this has to do with what seems to be your belief that our players are going to take amounts inconsistent with the history of UFA contracts.

If mathews wants 15 mil I hope Dubas really thinks hard on this one.

Nylander is going to wait until Mathews signs.

At 15 mil you could have 2 very solid players
Ex.
Jack Hughes 8 mil
Tage Thompson 7 mil

If mathews wants 15 mil it is all about the money and nothing else.

I don't want to lose Nylander because we signed Mathews At 15 mil.

Next summer Dubs has to offer Mathews 13 ×8 , if he doesn't except then trade him.

He also hasn't had a great year
I also have concerns about his injury history

 

[Dekes For Days]

I appreciate the work above. Pre-COVID, the cap increased incrementally each year. Should that not be taken into consideration? For example the relative cost/value of 9m or 10m in year 1 is not the same in year 2 to 4.

The claim in the random tweet with 6 likes months after the signing that it's all based on is fake.
The calculations are also based on a stagnant value for each RFA year and each UFA year, which is not how contracts work. Age 25 RFA year > Age 22 RFA year, for example.
The calculations are a complete Mess and shouldn't be taken seriously.

If mathews wants 15 mil I hope Dubas really thinks hard on this one.

I don't think we have to worry about Matthews making 15m.

 

[horner]

The claim in the random tweet with 6 likes months after the signing that it's all based on is fake.
The calculations are also based on a stagnant value for each RFA year and each UFA year, which is not how contracts work. Age 25 RFA year > Age 22 RFA year, for example.
The calculations are a complete Mess and shouldn't be taken seriously.

I don't think we have to worry about Matthews making 15m.

We will see

 

[LeafsNation75]

If mathews wants 15 mil I hope Dubas really thinks hard on this one.

Nylander is going to wait until Mathews signs.

At 15 mil you could have 2 very solid players
Ex.
Jack Hughes 8 mil
Tage Thompson 7 mil

If mathews wants 15 mil it is all about the money and nothing else.

I don't want to lose Nylander because we signed Mathews At 15 mil.

Next summer Dubs has to offer Mathews 13 ×8 , if he doesn't except then trade him.

He also hasn't had a great year
I also have concerns about his injury history

Isn't it hard to compare Matthews with Jack Hughes or Tage Thompson? I'm not saying denying they are having great seasons this year. However, using Thompson as an example, he's currently playing on his contract where he's making $1.4 million AAV and his new contract where he's going to make $7.142,857 AAV over 7 years was signed last offseason on August 30, 2022. He also signed that after having 38 goals and 68 points in the 2021-22 season. If he was going to sign a new contract today since he currently has 36 goals and 70 points through 53 games, wouldn't he have asked for more money?

 

[horner]

Isn't it hard to compare Matthews with Jack Hughes or Tage Thompson? I'm not saying denying they are having great seasons this year. However, using Thompson as an example, he's currently playing on his contract where he's making $1.4 million AAV and his new contract where he's going to make $7.142,857 AAV over 7 years was signed last offseason on August 30, 2022. He also signed that after having 38 goals and 68 points in the 2021-22 season. If he was going to sign a new contract today since he currently has 36 goals and 70 points through 53 games, wouldn't he have asked for more money?

Smart gm's then forward thinking

 

[Dekes For Days]

Smart gm's then forward thinking

It has nothing to do with "forward thinking". It just has to do with when players happen to break out.

 

[Petrus]

The claim in the random tweet with 6 likes months after the signing that it's all based on is fake.
The calculations are also based on a stagnant value for each RFA year and each UFA year, which is not how contracts work. Age 25 RFA year > Age 22 RFA year, for example.
The calculations are a complete Mess and shouldn't be taken seriously.

I don't think we have to worry about Matthews making 15m.

I would think the calculation below would be more reasonable as opposed to a flat salary assumption from year 1 to 4 and a sudden increase in Year 5. The table below assumes a rising cap. I think MLSE Management would have operated with the assumption that the cap would increase at ~2% per year.

Total Salary	$ 58,285,249.79
Avg. @ 5 Years	$ 11,657,049.96

Year	Salary	Salary Cap
2019-20	$ 11,200,000.00	$ 81,500,000.00
2020-21	$ 11,424,000.00	$ 83,130,000.00
2021-22	$ 11,652,480.00	$ 84,792,600.00
2022-23	$ 11,885,529.60	$ 86,488,452.00
2023-24	$ 12,123,240.19	$ 88,218,221.04

 

[Petrus]

I also looked at what Salary for Matthews would look like based on the assumption that Matthews wanted to be equal to McDavid's (again using the rising cap at ~2%) 15.7% Team Cap. The result is Matthews would get paid more at 1 million per year on average in comparison to McDavid's average salary of 12,500,000. This lines up with Bob Mckenzie's report that Matthews salary would be 1 million per year higher than McDavids).

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]Salary Cap[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019-20[/TD]
[TD]$ 12,800,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$ 81,500,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020-21[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,056,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$ 83,130,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,317,120.00[/TD]
[TD]$ 84,792,600.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022-23[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,583,462.40[/TD]
[TD]$ 86,488,452.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023-24[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,855,131.65[/TD]
[TD]$ 88,218,221.04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year 6[/TD]
[TD]$ 14,132,234.28[/TD]
[TD]$ 89,982,585.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year 7[/TD]
[TD]$ 14,414,878.97[/TD]
[TD]$ 91,782,237.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year 8[/TD]
[TD]$ 14,703,176.55[/TD]
[TD]$ 93,617,881.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]$ 109,862,003.84[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,732,750.48[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[LeafsNation75]

I also looked at what Salary for Matthews would look like based on the assumption that Matthews wanted to be equal to McDavid's (again using the rising cap at ~2%) 15.7% Team Cap. The result is Matthews would get paid more at 1 million per year on average in comparison to McDavid's average salary of 12,500,000. This lines up with Bob Mckenzie's report that Matthews salary would be 1 million per year higher than McDavids).

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Year[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]Salary Cap[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019-20[/TD]
[TD]$ 12,800,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$ 81,500,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020-21[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,056,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$ 83,130,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021-22[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,317,120.00[/TD]
[TD]$ 84,792,600.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022-23[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,583,462.40[/TD]
[TD]$ 86,488,452.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023-24[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,855,131.65[/TD]
[TD]$ 88,218,221.04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year 6[/TD]
[TD]$ 14,132,234.28[/TD]
[TD]$ 89,982,585.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year 7[/TD]
[TD]$ 14,414,878.97[/TD]
[TD]$ 91,782,237.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Year 8[/TD]
[TD]$ 14,703,176.55[/TD]
[TD]$ 93,617,881.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]$ 109,862,003.84[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Average[/TD]
[TD]$ 13,732,750.48[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

In a hypothetical situation let's say Matthews re-signed for 8 years at those exact numbers, wouldn't all the Leafs haters have said Kyle Dubas would have been crazy to give him more money than McDavid? At the time he signed his 5 year contract extension, those people complained how he had not yet had at least a 70 point season or 30 assists. Now some of that was due to injuries and games he missed in 2018 and 2019, even though they ignored how he scored 40 goals in 82 games as a rookie and finished T-2nd in goals scored that year.

However, let's also remember those same people also were hoping to see Matthews become an RFA and sign a massive offer sheet with Arizona. So, it's fair to say they were hypocrites when they talk about Matthews getting overpaid in Toronto, even though they wanted to see him get overpaid by Arizona.

 

[Petrus]

In a hypothetical situation let's say Matthews re-signed for 8 years at those exact numbers, wouldn't all the Leafs haters have said Kyle Dubas would have been crazy to give him more money than McDavid? At the time he signed his 5 year contract extension, those people complained how he had not yet had at least a 70 point season or 30 assists. Now some of that was due to injuries and games he missed in 2018 and 2019, even though they ignored how he scored 40 goals in 82 games as a rookie and finished T-2nd in goals scored that year.

However, let's also remember those same people also were hoping to see Matthews become an RFA and sign a massive offer sheet with Arizona. So, it's fair to say they were hypocrites when they talk about Matthews getting overpaid in Toronto, even though they wanted to see him get overpaid by Arizona.

I think the bottom line average Salary (while important) is not the totality of the picture. For example, McKinnon's salary is 12.6m over 8 years. Can we say objectively say the McKinnon is a better player than McDavid since McDavid is earning 12.5? I think Salaries should be viewed from the lens of % of salary cap not simply the bottom line comparison. McDavid is the best player in world (nobody comes close). However Matthews is the Franchise player and he will command/deserves (like McKinnon and McDavid) Franchise player level salary.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I think the bottom line average Salary (while important) is not the totality of the picture. For example, McKinnon's salary is 12.6m over 8 years. Can we say objectively say the McKinnon is a better player than McDavid since McDavid is earning 12.5? I think Salaries should be viewed from the lens of % of salary cap not simply the bottom line comparison. McDavid is the best player in world (nobody comes close). However Matthews is the Franchise player and he will command/deserves (like McKinnon and McDavid) Franchise player level salary.

Besides MacKinnon having just won a Stanley Cup, in terms of individual awards Matthews has won more of them.

On Matthews resume he's won the Hart Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award, Calder Trophy, and is a 2x time back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophy winner in 2021 and 2022.

On MacKinnon's resume he's won the Calder Trophy and Lady Byng.

It's also funny how next season MacKinnon will be making $12.6 million because a few years ago he talked about taking less money once again, however that obviously never happened.

MacKinnon would 'take less again' to help Avalanche: report | NHL.com

High-scoring forward with team-friendly contract has eyes on winning future

www.nhl.com

 

[Arzak]

Just seen your posting history.

Good lord are you miserable af

Oh what a surprise, you got nothing to add hockey discussion wise but you keep on posting

You suggested anyone not agreeing with you has no life in your previous post, so I'm shocked this is the conclusion you got after you "seen" my posting history.

Btw: your first account got banned or you just started on HFboards ?

 

[Antropovsky]

A lot of that comes from Leafs haters who want to see Matthews leave Toronto as a UFA.

Before he signed his current contract, they wished that Arizona would be able to sign him as an RFA. However, that never happened since he re-signed on February 5, 2019, and never became an RFA.

I mean... He signed a 5 year contract and not an 8. He's not Canadian, he's american. He's not the captain of this team

There is plenty of reason for speculation.

I don't think Arizona would be his choice, but an American team. Sure. New York? LA? He loves style, he likes warm weather too (LA).

At this point nobody knows where his mind is.

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Win the cup and we'll give you league max and whatever else you want when you retire. Seriously, win the cup and we'll make you a billionaire and a legend for the next 100 years.