Tribute Auston Matthews Discussion "the Beauty" Edition

DanM

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Oct 2, 2017
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They’re all better, and it’s not even close IMO. Matthews looks way too lazy and disinterested a lot of times. Plus, he doesn’t even have an 80 point season under his belt yet.

Simply not true.

Matthews is on another level talent wise, but I do agree he needs to want to dominate more, and if he continues, I will agree 100% with you.

If he decides to play, like he can, with his god given talent, he doesn't even belong in the same sentence with those players.

And the 80 point convo is getting old, he has had trouble staying healthy, and hopefully that is behind him.
 

ruaware41

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Oct 22, 2019
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Simply not true.

Matthews is on another level talent wise, but I do agree he needs to want to dominate more, and if he continues, I will agree 100% with you.

If he decides to play, like he can, with his god given talent, he doesn't even belong in the same sentence with those players.

And the 80 point convo is getting old, he has had trouble staying healthy, and hopefully that is behind him.
So you really think that Matthews is on another tier to all of these players?

Marchand, Pasta, Kucherov, Bergeron, Barkov

Marchand and Bergeron I'd give you since they were historically 60 pt players.

Talent is overrated, every fan base feels that their player is on another level if they give it their all. Well guess what, humans are imperfect and don't always give it their all which is why at some point actual results on the ice matter.

This is the type of nonsensical overrating and delusion by leaf fans that makes my blood boil and is responsible for both my warnings on here even though I never targeted a poster but just parts of the fanbase. This is the type of mindset that makes these players think they are worth way more than they are and makes them sit out for every penny.

Sorry, but your number 1 c isn't on another tier compared to the guy who led the league in scoring last year. That season is the next tier.

There's something seriously wrong with how we as leaf fans get emotionally invested in the game and how others do. Did any fanbase compare their star player to McDavid? No, but many leaf fans said that Matthews is better than McDavid. This type of stuff is so ridiculously solipsistic. There are tons of skilled players in the league. Most are within the very few tiers that exist wrt skill level (e.g. Nylander can do every dangle Matthews can. Datsyuk said Bertuzzi was one of the most skilled players he had ever seen play hockey). The rest comes down to drive, motivation, hockey IQ/vision, skating, built, luck, tenacity, injuries and stuff like that.

It's kind of like how every dad feels like his son is special, if only he gave 100% all the time each day every day he could accomplish..... Well guess what, he doesn't or his results would reflect that. So propping someone up based on their talent when their production lags behind it is ridiculous because if you ask other fanbases with star players they'd say the same darn thing. At some point results matter and barkov Kuch and Pastrnak have accomplished more throughout their regular season + playoff careers thus far. There are many teams in the NHL and many of them have phenomenal talent. It doesn't just begin and end in Toronto.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Did any fanbase compare their star player to McDavid? No, but many leaf fans said that Matthews is better than McDavid.
Actually, few if any Leaf fans have ever said that Matthews is better than McDavid, or even equal. This despite significant evidence suggesting that unlike most star players, Matthews actually is in that tier. The idea that you think Leaf fans overrate their star players is laughable, considering both Matthews and Marner are criminally underrated by like 95% of the fanbase.
 

ruaware41

Typical
Oct 22, 2019
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Actually, few if any Leaf fans have ever said that Matthews is better than McDavid, or even equal. This despite significant evidence suggesting that unlike most star players, Matthews actually is in that tier. The idea that you think Leaf fans overrate their star players is laughable, considering both Matthews and Marner are criminally underrated by like 95% of the fanbase.
A lot of players may be in that tier such as MacKinnon but few have put up back to back 100+ point seasons with a Hart. Until he does that your even strength goals per 60 on games where it was foggy outside on Saturday evenings is useless.

And yes quite a few leaf fans said they wouldn't trade Matthews for McDavid and that he's better. I remember those threads. We do not in general underrate these two, not by a long shot. Hell a year after Marner was drafted people were already saying that he is the clear cut number two player from the draft. Results matter results matter. Not cherry picked stats to suit an argument. Unless this attitude from our fans changes every players narcissistic side will keep getting fed whichll make them think higher of themselves than justified and screw the cap.

I mean just the post I quoted, despite ACTUAL superior results the guy thinks Matthews is way above guys like Pastrnak and kucherov. In fact a whole different tier. At that point you're better off banging your head against the wall.
 
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Dekes For Days

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A lot of players may be in that tier such as MacKinnon
Mackinnon is not in that tier.
but few have put up back to back 100+ point seasons with a Hart.
I care about the quality of player, not their shiny totals/irrelevant trophies without context.
Until he does that your even strength goals per 60 on games where it was foggy outside on Saturday evenings is useless.
Actually, it's even strength goals per 60, even strength points per 60, even strength primary points per 60, powerplay goals per 60, powerplay points per 60, and powerplay primary points per 60. You know, just the entirety of production, and it's way more valuable and representative than raw points will ever be.
We do not in general underrate these two, not by a long shot.
They are two of the most underrated players in the entire cap era. If these players came in in 2005/2006 and got 6 minutes of PPs every game like Crosby/Ovechkin/Malkin, the perception on this board would be incredibly different. Heck, if they got the league average PP TOI for superstars today, the perception on this board would be incredibly different.
Hell a year after Marner was drafted people were already saying that he is the clear cut number two player from the draft.
A few people said this, because Marner had a season for the ages in the OHL, with stats that projected him to be a superstar. He is the 2nd best player from that draft today.
Results matter results matter.
Yes, results matter. Context also matters. Per 60 stats are results, just with crucial context added.
Not cherry picked stats to suit an argument.
There is nothing cherry picked about any of the stats I have posted. In fact, it's incredibly hard to find anything they aren't one of the best in the league at. No matter which type of production I looked at, no matter which time-frame I used, they kept popping up at the top. That's very rare, and that's basically just their pre-prime results.
Unless this attitude from our fans changes every players narcissistic side will keep getting fed whichll make them think higher of themselves than justified and screw the cap.
There is nothing "screwed" with the Leaf's cap. Leafs are in one of the best situations league-wide with the cap. They have their core locked in and zero bad contracts moving forward.
 

Pookie

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There is nothing "screwed" with the Leaf's cap. Leafs are in one of the best situations league-wide with the cap. They have their core locked in and zero bad contracts moving forward.

I would agree that we aren't screwed.

However, as a result of a top heavy cap we will have to find bargains in positions that matter... like D.

There are 6 defensemen that need new contracts next year. The next year, Freddy goes UFA with no successor in the system.

There is a lot of work to do and finding talent, bargain talent... will be a challenge.
 
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Pookie

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11 points in 13 games under keefe. Works out to 69 points over 82 games. Fairly certain I saw that keefe has been playing Auston the 6th most out of all forwards (league wide) at even strength.

That's a misleading stat. The Even Strength piece is simply a function of not having as many PPs under Keefe. He still taps Matthews on the shoulder and isn't going to hold him to the bench waiting for the PP.

You play the hand you have.

Here's the raw data for usage under both coaches this year. 23 games under Babcock and 15 under Keefe.

BabcockKeefeBabcockKeefeVariance
PlayerShifts/GameShifts/GameVarianceAVG TOIAVG TOIAVG TOI
Matthews24.422.6-1.819:4919:530:04
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
His total time is static. He's getting about 2 fewer shifts per game but his shifts are a little longer so the TOI evens out.
 

danny90

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Nov 27, 2019
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That's a misleading stat. The Even Strength piece is simply a function of not having as many PPs under Keefe. He still taps Matthews on the shoulder and isn't going to hold him to the bench waiting for the PP.

You play the hand you have.

Here's the raw data for usage under both coaches this year. 23 games under Babcock and 15 under Keefe.

BabcockKeefeBabcockKeefeVariance
PlayerShifts/GameShifts/GameVarianceAVG TOIAVG TOIAVG TOI
Matthews24.422.6-1.819:4919:530:04
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
His total time is static. He's getting about 2 fewer shifts per game but his shifts are a little longer so the TOI evens out.
this is a misleading stat it does not take into account usage and scoring adjustment as the leafs have a higher winning percentage and have lead for more time under keefe you'd think he'd see much more ice time under babcock since they were usually behind and chasing the game after 1
 

Pookie

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this is a misleading stat it does not take into account usage and scoring adjustment as the leafs have a higher winning percentage and have lead for more time under keefe you'd think he'd see much more ice time under babcock since they were usually behind and chasing the game after 1

Marner’s time has gone up under similar situations. Tavares’ time has gone up.

But have at it ... that’s your theory.

Find the data to support it.
 

Dayjobdave

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Apr 29, 2010
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Matthews’ goal on Monday to wake us up in the third was an otherworldly shot.

Matthews’ spinarama pass to Marner to wake us up again was so spectacular it energized us and froze the Canes’ defence for the next several minutes.

They will be showing that play for years.

as one poster on the Canes board said ... “Ok. That was a 22 million dollar goal.”

I am happy to sit back and enjoy watching the kid play for as long as he is here. I hope Keefe keeps him and Marner together for a while, because as a hockey fan and Leaf fan I love watching this.
 

Community

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Oct 30, 2010
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Matthews’ goal on Monday to wake us up in the third was an otherworldly shot.

Matthews’ spinarama pass to Marner to wake us up again was so spectacular it energized us and froze the Canes’ defence for the next several minutes.

They will be showing that play for years.

as one poster on the Canes board said ... “Ok. That was a 22 million dollar goal.”

I am happy to sit back and enjoy watching the kid play for as long as he is here. I hope Keefe keeps him and Marner together for a while, because as a hockey fan and Leaf fan I love watching this.

And that was from our shooter to our playmaker.. I hope Matthews keeps that up as improving his playmaking leads to more deceptive shots too instead of the goalie just knowing he will shoot it.
 

ruaware41

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Oct 22, 2019
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Mackinnon is not in that tier.

I care about the quality of player, not their shiny totals/irrelevant trophies without context.

Actually, it's even strength goals per 60, even strength points per 60, even strength primary points per 60, powerplay goals per 60, powerplay points per 60, and powerplay primary points per 60. You know, just the entirety of production, and it's way more valuable and representative than raw points will ever be.

They are two of the most underrated players in the entire cap era. If these players came in in 2005/2006 and got 6 minutes of PPs every game like Crosby/Ovechkin/Malkin, the perception on this board would be incredibly different. Heck, if they got the league average PP TOI for superstars today, the perception on this board would be incredibly different.

A few people said this, because Marner had a season for the ages in the OHL, with stats that projected him to be a superstar. He is the 2nd best player from that draft today.

Yes, results matter. Context also matters. Per 60 stats are results, just with crucial context added.

There is nothing cherry picked about any of the stats I have posted. In fact, it's incredibly hard to find anything they aren't one of the best in the league at. No matter which type of production I looked at, no matter which time-frame I used, they kept popping up at the top. That's very rare, and that's basically just their pre-prime results.

There is nothing "screwed" with the Leaf's cap. Leafs are in one of the best situations league-wide with the cap. They have their core locked in and zero bad contracts moving forward.
Lol this is exactly the type of shit that makes me crack up. If MacKinnon is not in that tier then Matthews is nowhere near it considering MacKinnon at least has a 99 point season.

So you claim you care about the supposed quality of a player but if this quality isn't reflected by actual results perhaps the level of subjective quality YOU with your biased perspective see isn't as quality as you think. Actual darn results. The fact that you think a Hart is a meaningless shiny trophy but biased leaf fans overseeing their players is more representative of reality says all I need to know. Because who cares what actual players collectively think who play the game.

And no your cherry picked points per 60 don't mean much compared to actual production to help the team. That's what matters. Projections are just projections, not reality. Actual on ice results matter and there is no better reflection of offensive prowess than ACTUAL offensive.... Production! If a player gets injured often and misses games then that should be accounted in their valuation as a player. Per 60 doesn't consider this.

How is Marner objectively the second best player in the draft when he has only had 1 season better than Eichel during the time both have been in the league and this season is once again going to be close. Also post season success matters and so far leafs stars haven't proven to be as dominant as some of the other names.

I swear to God if you had MacKinnon in Toronto and not Matthews you'd just use a whole different metric to talk about how great he is and how he's in McDavids tier. Per 60 stats are cherry picked results that take away emphasis from actual production.
 
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HolyCrap

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Oct 2, 2015
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Actually, few if any Leaf fans have ever said that Matthews is better than McDavid, or even equal. This despite significant evidence suggesting that unlike most star players, Matthews actually is in that tier. The idea that you think Leaf fans overrate their star players is laughable, considering both Matthews and Marner are criminally underrated by like 95% of the fanbase.


When I see a poster say that Leaf fans rate Mathews higher than McDavid. I instantly know they are trolling and have zero clue about anything hockey related.
 
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Wafflewhipper

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So you really think that Matthews is on another tier to all of these players?

Marchand, Pasta, Kucherov, Bergeron, Barkov

Marchand and Bergeron I'd give you since they were historically 60 pt players.

Talent is overrated, every fan base feels that their player is on another level if they give it their all. Well guess what, humans are imperfect and don't always give it their all which is why at some point actual results on the ice matter.

This is the type of nonsensical overrating and delusion by leaf fans that makes my blood boil and is responsible for both my warnings on here even though I never targeted a poster but just parts of the fanbase. This is the type of mindset that makes these players think they are worth way more than they are and makes them sit out for every penny.

Sorry, but your number 1 c isn't on another tier compared to the guy who led the league in scoring last year. That season is the next tier.

There's something seriously wrong with how we as leaf fans get emotionally invested in the game and how others do. Did any fanbase compare their star player to McDavid? No, but many leaf fans said that Matthews is better than McDavid. This type of stuff is so ridiculously solipsistic. There are tons of skilled players in the league. Most are within the very few tiers that exist wrt skill level (e.g. Nylander can do every dangle Matthews can. Datsyuk said Bertuzzi was one of the most skilled players he had ever seen play hockey). The rest comes down to drive, motivation, hockey IQ/vision, skating, built, luck, tenacity, injuries and stuff like that.

It's kind of like how every dad feels like his son is special, if only he gave 100% all the time each day every day he could accomplish..... Well guess what, he doesn't or his results would reflect that. So propping someone up based on their talent when their production lags behind it is ridiculous because if you ask other fanbases with star players they'd say the same darn thing. At some point results matter and barkov Kuch and Pastrnak have accomplished more throughout their regular season + playoff careers thus far. There are many teams in the NHL and many of them have phenomenal talent. It doesn't just begin and end in Toronto.

McDavid is slowing down lately as the losses pile up and no playoffs a real possibility, again. Matthews is a premier goal scorer and Thats a fact.
 

ruaware41

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Oct 22, 2019
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McDavid is slowing down lately as the losses pile up and no playoffs a real possibility, again. Matthews is a premier goal scorer and Thats a fact.
Agreed, Matthews is a great player and even better goal scorer.

That team is too reliant on McDavid, they can't win without him at all. When you produce that much though there's naturally going to be some ups and downs in production.
 
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IPS

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5 goals, 9 points in his last 4 games.

Let's hope him and Marner keep the train rolling. They should be able to style on NJ tonight.
 

Joey Hoser

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Lol this is exactly the type of **** that makes me crack up. If MacKinnon is not in that tier then Matthews is nowhere near it considering MacKinnon at least has a 99 point season.

Are you really going to be surprised when Matthews puts up a 90-100 point & 50 goal season? As if right now, you have no idea if he's capable of that or not? You don't know what you are looking at when you watch, and you need an oct 3rd to may-20th point total to tell you?

He is what he is, regardless if he plays out every game, or if he misses 5-10 games with injury.
 
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Martin Skoula

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Oct 18, 2017
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Marner’s time has gone up under similar situations. Tavares’ time has gone up.

But have at it ... that’s your theory.

Find the data to support it.

Gee no way, our match-up line gets more ice time in games where we're defending the lead? That's some crazy stuff you've discovered.
 
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Martin Skoula

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Oct 18, 2017
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We await your research with anticipation and lowered expectations.

Hyman Tavares and Marner are our top 3 forwards in TOI/G when leading.

Johnsson Matthews and Tavares (Nylander 4th) are our top 3 forwards in TOI/G when trailing.

Also there's no "we" lol, you are very much alone in your opinions.
 
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Pookie

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Hyman Tavares and Marner are our top 3 forwards in TOI/G when leading.

Johnsson Matthews and Tavares (Nylander 4th) are our top 3 forwards in TOI/G when trailing.

Also there's no "we" lol, you are very much alone in your opinions.

I fail to see how a mathematical summary of total shifts and ATOI under both coaches is an "opinion"

Just like the knowledge you now have of the Corsi Coefficients that are applied to Corsi Events depending on venue, score and time of game. That's not an opinion. It's what happens.

You came up with a theory that Matthews usage is different and somehow his 19:53 under Keefe is statistically different than his 19:49 under Babcock.

I really can't lower my expectations much further... so now's the time to try.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Lol this is exactly the type of **** that makes me crack up. If MacKinnon is not in that tier then Matthews is nowhere near it considering MacKinnon at least has a 99 point season.
Raw point totals with no context are pretty useless for evaluating quality of player.

Mackinnon is a really good player and has had a good recent stretch, but his raw totals are inflated due to his incredibly high linemate quality and incredibly high PP TOI/GP.
So you claim you care about the supposed quality of a player but if this quality isn't reflected by actual results perhaps the level of subjective quality YOU with your biased perspective see isn't as quality as you think.
It's not about perspective. It's about cold hard facts. The quality of player is reflected in the actual results. You're just choosing to ignore those results and all context.
Actual darn results.
Per 60 stats are "actual darn results".
The fact that you think a Hart is a meaningless shiny trophy
Most of the trophies are meaningless. They're either a popularity contest by biased, uneducated individuals, or largely a measure of external factors.
And no your cherry picked points per 60
Nothing cherry picked about points per 60, or any of the stats I showed.
Projections are just projections, not reality.
Per 60 stats are reality. It happened.
there is no better reflection of offensive prowess than ACTUAL offensive.... Production!
There are many better reflections of offensive ability than raw points.
If a player gets injured often and misses games then that should be accounted in their valuation as a player.
Why does the random occurrence of being injured change the player's offensive ability?
How is Marner objectively the second best player in the draft when he has only had 1 season better than Eichel during the time both have been in the league and this season is once again going to be close.
Marner has had more seasons better than Eichel at ES and PP than vice versa, and he has been better overall. He's also been better this year, and isn't relying on insanely high and unsustainable OISH%s to do it, like Eichel.
Also post season success matters and so far leafs stars haven't proven to be as dominant as some of the other names.
Aside from the issues of drawing conclusions from small sample sizes, Leafs stars have done very well in the playoffs, despite being very young and facing the very best teams in the league.
I swear to God if you had MacKinnon in Toronto and not Matthews you'd just use a whole different metric to talk about how great he is and how he's in McDavids tier.
This is not true at all. I always strive for as much context as possible. This would not change, regardless of who was on my team.
Per 60 stats are cherry picked results that take away emphasis from actual production.
Per 60 stats are not cherry picked at all. They are the same as other production stats, except they include critically important context.
 

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