News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[therealkoho]

Don't know how that happened, but I said that

Unreal so did the other poster!!!

 

[therealkoho]

Pastrnak just came off a better season in both goals (61) and points (113) than Matthews has ever produced in his career.

He signed 11.25M X 8 (all UFA years), cheaper than Matthews RFA deal.

Pasta did two things with that contract, he feathered his own nest while showing loyalty and doing right by the Bruins

The Bruins for their part have done nothing but treated the player like royalty, giving him the best of medical care, world class facilities to work in, and a great city to live in.

Perhaps if the Leafs had treated Matthews...nvm

 

[ULF_55]

$13.5 x 4-5 is supposed to be a discount?

Rather that then 8*13.5.

In 7 years how good will his wrists be?

 

[andora]

I think we can enjoy Matthews without engaging in terribly unflattering comparisons with a player who might be Top 3 greatest.

Matthews already enjoys the reputation and salary of a player befitting a player who scores 60 G and 100 PTS every year.

Why do we go through the exercise of trying to prove he's on the McDavid tier when you just never get that level of dominance?

I cant see believing any debate or point that tries to say matthews is a better player

We are not discussing a 40 point second liner and a 60 point 2nd liner and me saying i would take the 40 point guy because he is better defensively and grittier

The powerplay point thing.. yeah it can have merit but when it is at mcdavids level.. it changes the scope. They basically have a player that is so good that when the other team takes a penalty they basically hold on and the powerplay is historically potent - he does that. It isnt a 15 point gap, it is upper stratosphere ability

Mcdavid dictates entire games far more than matthews dictates periods

 

[BertCorbeau]

I still have a hard time with him.

On one hand, the fact that they can't easily lock him up for 8 years is damning for a star player who supposedly doesn't want to leave the city. Doesn't really show that he's committed and chasing money, with is a big red flag given the lack of playoff success

On the other hand, in a vacuum outside of that, that large of AAV over 8 years poses massive risk particularly with Matthews' health and injuries he's been getting. So mitigating that over 3-5 years might make more sense from a 'win now' perspective. 8 years is a long, long time.

 

[andora]

I still have a hard time with him.

On one hand, the fact that they can't easily lock him up for 8 years is damning for a star player who supposedly doesn't want to leave the city. Doesn't really show that he's committed and chasing money, with is a big red flag given the lack of playoff success

On the other hand, in a vacuum outside of that, that large of AAV over 8 years poses massive risk particularly with Matthews' health and injuries he's been getting. So mitigating that over 3-5 years might make more sense from a 'win now' perspective. 8 years is a long, long time.

Is it? We dont know what 8 yrs feels like

Bom bom cha

 

[Menzinger]

At that AAV, really hope that's not a 3x year term.

Even 4 would be okay (but not ideal). That would at least end up giving the Leafs 5 years of certainty when factored in he's already signed for next season.

 

[Divine]

I still have a hard time with him.

On one hand, the fact that they can't easily lock him up for 8 years is damning for a star player who supposedly doesn't want to leave the city. Doesn't really show that he's committed and chasing money, with is a big red flag given the lack of playoff success

On the other hand, in a vacuum outside of that, that large of AAV over 8 years poses massive risk particularly with Matthews' health and injuries he's been getting. So mitigating that over 3-5 years might make more sense from a 'win now' perspective. 8 years is a long, long time.

Leafs are actually in a good situation if they can lock him up for at least 2 years.

Even if you can lock him up on a 2 year deal, his contract now expires at the same time as McDavid's, after Draisaitl's.

If I'm the Leafs, I pursue McDavid and Matthews is the backup option. If Matthews is asking 15M, why not throw that at McDavid instead?

I don't see a lineup of teams willing to pay Matthews what he wants. In fact, it seems the Leafs are the only team willing to play ball with him with these kinds of contracts.

That said, on a 2 year contract - his AAV better come in favourable. He can get out of here with a 13M+ average on a 2 year contract on a flat cap where as soon as the cap rises his contract expires.

 

[Stephen]

Even 4 would be okay (but not ideal). That would at least end up giving the Leafs 5 years of certainty when factored in he's already signed for next season.

Six is bullseye for me. Five is great, and then less good with each fewer year.

 

[Squiffy]

I gotta tell you, every time I read in this thread the idea that we should be game planning for McDavid, I die a little.

In my time here, I have heard this plan for Crosby, OV, Richards, Stamkos, Taveres, Doughty and a dozen others I can't think of right now but surely exist. It's not a plan, it's a pipe dream. Christ, we got Taveres and everyone hates it.

We have Matthews. Right now, he's a Leaf. Google it. If he was a Shark right now we'd be game planning our offer on him next year. 100%. We'd be proposing front-loading signing bonuses next year at 15 AAV laughing that other teams can't do it. Grass. Greener.

Pay that man his money. f*** around with everyone else on the roster.

He gets "staying with the team he's on" market value, and that's highest AAV player in the league next year, $13-something.

It's a no-brainer. You're just out-thinking yourself otherwise, put down the homer glasses that say not taking less to be a Leaf is an act of disrespect.

Don't worry, McDavid's next contract will crucify AM's, it won't be close.

 

[Divine]

I gotta tell you, every time I read in this thread the idea that we should be game planning for McDavid, I die a little.

In my time here, I have heard this plan for Crosby, OV, Richards, Stamkos, Taveres, Doughty and a dozen others I can't think of right now but surely exist. It's not a plan, it's a pipe dream. Christ, we got Taveres and everyone hates it.

We have Matthews. Right now, he's a Leaf. Google it. If he was a Shark right now we'd be game planning our offer on him next year. 100%. We'd be proposing front-loading signing bonuses next year at 15 AAV laughing that other teams can't do it. Grass. Greener.

Pay that man his money. f*** around with everyone else on the roster. He gets "staying with the team he's on" market value, and that's highest AAV player in the league next year simple, yes, $13-something. It's a no-brainer. You're just out-thinking yourself otherwise, put down the homer glasses that say take less to be a Leaf to an unreasonable level, anything less then 14 is doing that.

Don't worry, McDavid's next contract will crucify AM's, it won't be close.

I'm willing to bet Matthews will make more than McDavid because he values money more than McDavid. He will chase the money with these short contracts and leverage of being a UFA every time the cap is projected to rise.

The same way Ovechkin made more than Crosby despite being the worse player.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Leafs are actually in a good situation if they can lock him up for at least 2 years.

Even if you can lock him up on a 2 year deal, his contract now expires at the same time as McDavid's, after Draisaitl's.

If I'm the Leafs, I pursue McDavid and Matthews is the backup option. If Matthews is asking 15M, why not throw that at McDavid instead?

I don't see a lineup of teams willing to pay Matthews what he wants. In fact, it seems the Leafs are the only team willing to play ball with him with these kinds of contracts.

That said, on a 2 year contract - his AAV better come in favourable. He can get out of here with a 13M+ average on a 2 year contract on a flat cap where as soon as the cap rises his contract expires.

Why would paying for his 2 likely statistical peak years be cheaper than a contract that also pays for his 34 year old season? 26-28 are his most expensive years, the cap doesn’t rise as fast as 30 year olds drop off in play.

Towes signed his deal in 2015-16 during a period of strong cap growth, by the pandemic season in 2020 he was still 4th highest C cap hit but nowhere close to a top 5 C. Even without the pandemic cap stagnation and Towes not getting sick, he’d still have a top-10 C cap hit with 2C performance at best.

 

[Divine]

Why would paying for his 2 likely statistical peak years be cheaper than a contract that also pays for his 34 year old season? 26-28 are his most expensive years, the cap doesn’t rise as fast as 30 year olds drop off in play.

Towes signed his deal in 2015-16 during a period of strong cap growth, by the pandemic season in 2020 he was still 4th highest C cap hit but nowhere close to a top 5 C.

It's because Matthews is under the impression the cap is going to rise rapidly after years of stagnation.

It's Matthews that wants the lower term contract, not the Leafs.

Why would the Leafs agree to a shorter contract on a flat cap and a higher AAV? Where's the negotiation? Sounds like we hand the paper to Matthews every time his contract expires, and we sign whatever he puts on it.

 

[Squiffy]

There is no chance McDavid isn't the highest paid player in the league the next time he signs a contract. Discuss.

 

[Divine]

There is no chance McDavid isn't the highest paid player in the league the next time he signs a contract. Discuss.

Makes no sense.

Did you say there's no way Ovechkin would make more than Crosby also? He did, his entire career.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It's because Matthews is under the impression the cap is going to rise rapidly after years of stagnation.

It's Matthews that wants the lower term contract, not the Leafs.

Why would the Leafs agree to a shorter contract on a flat cap and a higher AAV? Where's the negotiation? Sounds like we hand the paper to Matthews every time his contract expires, and we sign whatever he puts on it.

Longterm deals slightly underpay on the first few years and overpay on the back end, an extra million on the cap rise between 3-5 year deals is significantly less risky than ending up with a big ticket anchor like a Seguin. The short term overpay turns a Jarnkrok into a Marlie, the 13 million anchor has you drafting top 10 until you get a new RFA core.

The only thing worse than not winning is going into the next cycle with immovable cap hits and term on NMCs.

 

[Divine]

Longterm deals slightly underpay on the first few years and overpay on the back end, an extra million on the cap rise between 3-5 year deals is significantly less risky than ending up with a big ticket anchor like a Seguin. The short term overpay turns a Jarnkrok into a Marlie, the 13 million anchor has you drafting top 10 until you get a new RFA core.

The only thing worse than not winning is going into the next cycle with immovable cap hits and term on NMCs.

I understand, it's a net benefit to the Leafs to go shorter term.

My point is - it's not the Leafs that want short term, it's Matthews. So obviously, Matthews feels he can make more money signing short term and then signing longer later - or maybe he wants to play for someone else, who knows.

The point I'm making is, because Matthews is asking for shorter term - the Leafs should use it to negotiate a lower cap hit. How many superstars get short term deals in this league? Only Matthews?

 

[Squiffy]

Makes no sense.

Did you say there's no way Ovechkin would make more than Crosby also? He did, his entire career.

You don't think McDavid will be the highest paid player in the league off his next contract?

I don't know what to say to that. There's no one close, unless Bedard goes Gretzky early seasons.

There was always an argument to be made between OV and Sid, all time numbers bare it out. Me, Sid all the way, not that close, but there is a reasonable argument in the OV or Sid argument.

Here's my statement: On McDavid's next contract, he will be the highest AAV contract in the league. Yes?

 

[Divine]

You don't think McDavid will be the highest paid player in the league off his next contract?

I don't know what to say to that. There's no one close, unless Bedard goes Gretzky early seasons.

There was always an argument to be made between OV and Sid, all time numbers bare it out. Me, Sid all the way, not that close, but there is a reasonable argument in the OV or Sid argument.

Here's my statement: On McDavid's next contract, he will be the highest AAV contract in the league. Yes?

No, I don't agree McDavid will be.

I think he might, and probably will be, but I'm not sure of it. I'm sure Matthews will be though. If McDavid and Matthews sign at the same time, I think Matthews asks for more.

Remember - McDavid agreed to 13.5M X 8, and then changed his mind when the media said he was handicapping the Oilers. He also signed after being the only player to score 100 points that season while winning the Art Ross, Hart and Lindsay in his second season. Matthews signed during his career best 73P in 68 games season and got 11.64 X 5.

With Crosby and Ovechkin, the only reason the stats are even close is because Ovechkin played more than 150 games (~2 full seasons) more than Crosby due to injuries, and still Crosby outscored him despite that.

You think Matthews cared one bit that he got the highest 5 year RFA deal in history?

 

[Squiffy]

The guy is this generations Gretzky, I don't see any way he's not the top paid player in the league his next contract.

But anyways.. 13-something for AM, lets do it, easy call. 5 years please.

 

[Divine]

The guy is this generations Gretzky, I don't see any way he's not the top paid player in the league his next contract.

But anyways.. 13-something for AM, lets do it, easy call. 5 years please.

The reason he won't be is because he doesn't care to be and wants to win a Cup(s). Not that he doesn't deserve to be. The choice will be his.

I remember after signing his deal, he was asked about the rumour that he was originally planning to sign for 13.5 X 8 and then changed it to 12.5. His response was basically 'Well, anytime you make 100M, it's hard to say you're underpaid - but I wanted to make sure the team had the chance to stay competitive' basically confirming the rumour.

 

[centipede2233]

seems like not long TML were gonna be a potential dynasty when they won the lottery but fumbled ball so many times on contracts going all the back to not giving marner his bonuses

What a complete,waste. Let’s all thank shanny and dubie…THANKS SHANNY and DUBIE! Shanahan has been a president for 9 yrs and had the best young talent maybe in the last 40 years. And he has 1 playoff round win under his tenure. Looks like shanahan is running plays out of the Glenn slather playbook. Produce mediocre to piss poor results and remain president for a couple of decades Getting paid millions. Some men have all the luck

 

[Dekes For Days]

If all that we have established in your analysis is that a 0.18 P/GP is "significant," then the P/GP difference between Connor McDavid's 1.87 to Auston Matthews 1.15 in 2022-23, (0.72) or over their careers McDavid's 1.49 vs Matthews's 1.12 (0.37) is pretty much case closed, shut the eff up, right?
Can't we enjoy Matthews without engaging in this unflattering comparison?

Well, what we established is that just looking at raw points can be misleading, so I don't know why you'd go straight back to just raw points and think it's case closed. The gap between them is not as big as P/GP suggests. That said, I literally just got finished saying that McDavid had a better season and was a better player overall, so not sure who you're actually saying this to. I agree, we should just enjoy Matthews. You're the one that brought out a comparison to an external player that wasn't actually on his level.

 

[Niagara Bill]

OVERPAID. No. Each is 100point player and one a 60 goal scorer. They were under paid for the later end of their contracts. Some are just jaded with impatience, and consequently this is effecting the team. If more could be like me, Dekes, kd, et al, we might be in better shape. Dubas might still be here if we had more grassroots support. You really don't switch horses in mid-stream. For the first time in seven years, I am now in fear of what's ahead.

Painting a house once does not make you a house painter.
These contracts burdened the rest of the roster,
56 yrs is patience.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Remember - McDavid agreed to 13.5M X 8, and then changed his mind when the media said he was handicapping the Oilers.

McDavid took a very rare and sizeable discount on his post-ELC contract, and he still took a post-discount cap hit percentage on his post-ELC contract that surpassed Matthews' post-ELC contract and likely even his UFA contract. There's no reason to think that McDavid's UFA contract won't be bigger than Matthews'.

Matthews signed during his career best 73P in 68 games season and got 11.64 X 5.

Matthews signed while pacing for 50 goals, 100 points in his signing season, with an entire pre-signing period that ranked him among the best in the entire cap era, and an equivalent primary points per game to McDavid's pre-signing period, despite comparative disadvantages.

With Crosby and Ovechkin, the only reason the stats are even close is because Ovechkin played more than 150 games (~2 full seasons) more than Crosby due to injuries, and still Crosby outscored him despite that.

The only reason Crosby hasn't made more than Ovechkin throughout his career is because Crosby had a weird fascination with the number 87, and he signed a now illegal contract.

You think Matthews cared one bit that he got the highest 5 year RFA deal in history?

He didn't. Among exclusively post-ELC contracts with 5 year terms, he got the 4th biggest.