News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[authentic]

Even if he is a 50-60pt player, that is still worth 3 million.

But people have been telling me he sucks for over 3 years now, so wouldn't surprise me if he maintains 70+ points at that age, it isn't like he will get much slower, he doesn't rely on speed.

He may not get much slower but the league only gets faster. I agree with your overall point though, he will atleast be a 50-60 point player and worth 3 million.

 

[Boxscore]

You’ve introduced 3 hypotheticals here, and asking me whether it’s good or bad.

1) That JT at 35, in 3 years time will be close to PPG.

2) Willing to sign for $3 million.

3) At the end of the next contract, in 5 years time will still be providing value at $3 million.

Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I’m just just going to stick to my beliefs that if I’m not a fan of JT at 33 years of age. I’m not going to like him at 38. I would pass.

Unless the Leafs somehow win a Cup before then, and Tavares is an emotional heartbeat, there's no reason to keep him around after, unless he's willing to play for little money like Perry or Pavelski, while contributing as much as they have at that age in the playoffs.

 

[Ciao]

If what I'm hearing is correct, then it sounds like Matthews and the Leafs will reach a deal that both can live with.

Matthews might be the best player the Leafs have ever had. They should try to keep him if they can reasonably do so.

 

[pcruz]

Surely. Before I get into raw numbers, I'll start with some low-hanging fruit:

1. The eye test. MacKinnon simply plays with a fire, anger, and engine that Matthews doesn't. When MacKinnon grabs the puck and starts to go he's downright violent. He goes fast and hard into the zone and will do whatever it takes to get to the net. Matthews has an elite shot but thrives on the fringe and has zero interest in playing angry or getting dirty to produce (hence his awful playoff numbers when the games level up and get harder to play).

2. Attitude. After being bounced in the playoffs, MacKinnon exploded post game, tells the reporters, "I haven't won s--t yet!", then challenges his teammates to take their diets and conditioning more seriously and returns the next year to help lead the Avs to a Cup win. Conversely, Matthews gets bounced from the playoffs (once again) and in back-to-back years spends his offseason following Bieber around and asking management to relax the dress code for the players. You tell me what that says about each player and where their priorities lie. We can defend Matthews to the end because he's our player but we need to at least be honest.

3. Now, for the numbers. Since Matthews signed his last deal 5 years ago...

Auston Matthews:
73pts. in 68GP
80pts. in 70GP
66pts. in 52GP
106pts. in 73GP
85pts. in 74GP
Total: 410pts. in 337GP = 1.22PPG

Nathan MacKinnon:
99pts. in 82GP
93pts. in 69GP
65pts. in 48GP
88pts. in 65GP
111pts. in 71GP
Total: 456pts. in 335GP = 1.37PPG

And MacKinnon's high water mark is 111 points in 71GP. Matthews is 106 points in 73GP.

Even more importantly are their playoff numbers:

Auston Matthews: 0.88PPG
Nathan MacKinnon: 1.3PPG

Yes, Matthews has a Hart and two Rockets. But MacKinnon has a Cup and is significantly better in the playoffs. What's even more interesting is that Matthews only claim to being a "better offensive player" is goal scoring, yet in the playoffs:

Auston Matthews: 36 goals over 82GP
Nathan MacKinnon: 47 goals over 82GP

No matter how you realistically slice it, MacKinnon is the better offensive player (unless you're trying to factor in his early, sucky years on those garbage Avs teams, which of course would be 100% irrelevant when talking about MacKinnon's contract last summer and Matthews this summer).

In addition to being a better offensive player, MacKinnon is a champion and plays with a level of fire and passion that Matthews doesn't.

As for the overblown "defensive play" we supposedly see from Matthews -- it's completely irrelevant. Almost as irrelevant as their average career +/- which would give Matthews the edge: +18 vs. +13 (which factors in MacKinnon's early years on the crummy Avs when he was a minus player 3 times). Neither player is Bob Gainey or Patrice Bergeron and neither player's defense is the reason they are winning or losing hockey games.

Fans trying to oversell Matthews by adding his "defensive play" as a caveat is packing crap in a bag to make it look more full. When Matthews turns into Pavel Datsyuk let's talk about his defensive play. Until then, he's being paid to score goals, generate offense, and win Stanley Cups, period.

Nathan MacKinnon is a perfect comp for what Auston Matthews should be paid (and quite honestly, that's being a hair generous). But since the Leafs already overpaid him once and there's no reversing course, sure, give him the same exact deal MacKinnon got (which is more than McDavid). In fact, pay Auston another 100k just so he can own the label of "highest paid player in hockey history" which means so much to him.

In no fair, or realistic, world should Auston Matthews be paid 13.5 - 14 mil a year (and accept anything less than 8 years) when MacKinnon just signed for 12.6, Pastrnak for 11.5, and Tkachuk for 9.5. Especially since all of them signed long-term.

Let me dissect a few things here.

Since signing that 5 year contract, Matthews has 162 even strength goals compared to 119 Mackinnon has. That's a 43 goal difference. That's more goals than Mack has ever scored in a regular season, ever!

During that same time period, Mackinnon and Matthews sit 3rd and 4th overall for even strength points.
302, 295

That's a difference of all of 7 points, over 5 seasons.

Now, while Matthews has 12 more power play goals than Mack (63 vs 51), he trails in power play points by a significant margin (154 vs 115).

I wonder, however, if the teams have any bearing on that difference.

Since Matthews signed that contract, Toronto has had 1038 power plays. That's good enough for 26th in the NHL.
In the same period of time, Colorado has had 1274 power plays. That's good enough for......1st in the NHL.

Hmm.

A little context starts to rub that points per game discrepancy out of existence, n'est pas?


As for the playoff numbers, there's no contest there. Mackinnon is head and shoulders above everyone else in terms of playoff performance as far as I'm concerned. That includes McDavid and Draisaitl who are phenomenal offensive players and absolutely putrid defensively.

However, playoff points don't always correlate with how great a player is, or to the success of the team.

Have a look at these 3 players and their playoff resume, I wonder if you can name them:

GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits	Blocked Shots
162	41	61	102	30	119	49
100	34	49	83	23	36	24
91	38	44	82	2	?	?

One of those players is in the Hall of Fame
One of those players won a Conn Smythe
There are a total of 6 Stanley Cup wins between the 3 players.

Care to try and explain which of the 3 won the Smythe, and which of the 3 never won a cup?

 

[Stephen]

Unless the Leafs somehow win a Cup before then, and Tavares is an emotional heartbeat, there's no reason to keep him around after, unless he's willing to play for little money like Perry or Pavelski, while contributing as much as they have at that age in the playoffs.

Maybe others who are more fond of JT will disagree and find this harsh. But beyond his play style which I’m not a fan of, I don’t feel the easy or natural emotional connection to the player that I had even with a ROR briefly or Schenn 2.0. He’s not a heart and soul guy. And we haven’t had particularly great memory making history with him either. He’s the captain and it feels artificial.

So when his contract runs out I’m really not all that eager to lock him in for more.

 

[ORRFForever]

Surely. Before I get into raw numbers, I'll start with some low-hanging fruit:

1. The eye test. MacKinnon simply plays with a fire, anger, and engine that Matthews doesn't. When MacKinnon grabs the puck and starts to go he's downright violent. He goes fast and hard into the zone and will do whatever it takes to get to the net. Matthews has an elite shot but thrives on the fringe and has zero interest in playing angry or getting dirty to produce (hence his awful playoff numbers when the games level up and get harder to play).

2. Attitude. After being bounced in the playoffs, MacKinnon exploded post game, tells the reporters, "I haven't won s--t yet!", then challenges his teammates to take their diets and conditioning more seriously and returns the next year to help lead the Avs to a Cup win. Conversely, Matthews gets bounced from the playoffs (once again) and in back-to-back years spends his offseason following Bieber around and asking management to relax the dress code for the players. You tell me what that says about each player and where their priorities lie. We can defend Matthews to the end because he's our player but we need to at least be honest.

3. Now, for the numbers. Since Matthews signed his last deal 5 years ago...

Auston Matthews:
73pts. in 68GP
80pts. in 70GP
66pts. in 52GP
106pts. in 73GP
85pts. in 74GP
Total: 410pts. in 337GP = 1.22PPG

Nathan MacKinnon:
99pts. in 82GP
93pts. in 69GP
65pts. in 48GP
88pts. in 65GP
111pts. in 71GP
Total: 456pts. in 335GP = 1.37PPG

And MacKinnon's high water mark is 111 points in 71GP. Matthews is 106 points in 73GP.

Even more importantly are their playoff numbers:

Auston Matthews: 0.88PPG
Nathan MacKinnon: 1.3PPG

Yes, Matthews has a Hart and two Rockets. But MacKinnon has a Cup and is significantly better in the playoffs. What's even more interesting is that Matthews only claim to being a "better offensive player" is goal scoring, yet in the playoffs:

Auston Matthews: 36 goals over 82GP
Nathan MacKinnon: 47 goals over 82GP

No matter how you realistically slice it, MacKinnon is the better offensive player (unless you're trying to factor in his early, sucky years on those garbage Avs teams, which of course would be 100% irrelevant when talking about MacKinnon's contract last summer and Matthews this summer).

In addition to being a better offensive player, MacKinnon is a champion and plays with a level of fire and passion that Matthews doesn't.

As for the overblown "defensive play" we supposedly see from Matthews -- it's completely irrelevant. Almost as irrelevant as their average career +/- which would give Matthews the edge: +18 vs. +13 (which factors in MacKinnon's early years on the crummy Avs when he was a minus player 3 times). Neither player is Bob Gainey or Patrice Bergeron and neither player's defense is the reason they are winning or losing hockey games.

Fans trying to oversell Matthews by adding his "defensive play" as a caveat is packing crap in a bag to make it look more full. When Matthews turns into Pavel Datsyuk let's talk about his defensive play. Until then, he's being paid to score goals, generate offense, and win Stanley Cups, period.

Nathan MacKinnon is a perfect comp for what Auston Matthews should be paid (and quite honestly, that's being a hair generous). But since the Leafs already overpaid him once and there's no reversing course, sure, give him the same exact deal MacKinnon got (which is more than McDavid). In fact, pay Auston another 100k just so he can own the label of "highest paid player in hockey history" which means so much to him.

In no fair, or realistic, world should Auston Matthews be paid 13.5 - 14 mil a year (and accept anything less than 8 years) when MacKinnon just signed for 12.6, Pastrnak for 11.5, and Tkachuk for 9.5. Especially since all of them signed long-term.

Great post. No objective person takes Matthews over MacKinnon.

 

[notbias]

He relies on PP to get his productions. There are pros and cons to that.
He doesn't sucks these past years, just overpaid.

The fact that Keefe would rather remove Willie instead of JT off top PP unit and added ROR to that mix who literally played in the same spot as JT on the PP, just showed how Keefe needs to keep JT stats up in order to show he is worth his contract.

Or, hear me out, crazy thought. Keefe kept Tavares on PP1 not to keep his stats up, but because he is better than everyone else at his role on PP1.

 

[Gabriel426]

Or, hear me out, crazy thought. Keefe kept Tavares on PP1 not to keep his stats up, but because he is better than everyone else at his role on PP1.

Have not check the stats, but when that switch happened, did the PP produce more or less?

 

[Boxscore]

Maybe others who are more fond of JT will disagree and find this harsh. But beyond his play style which I’m not a fan of, I don’t feel the easy or natural emotional connection to the player that I had even with a ROR briefly or Schenn 2.0. He’s not a heart and soul guy. And we haven’t had particularly great memory making history with him either. He’s the captain and it feels artificial.

So when his contract runs out I’m really not all that eager to lock him in for more.

I don't think it's harsh at all. I was absolutely roasted on UFA day when I said that signing Tavares was a massive mistake before the ink on the contract dried. What you're saying is 100% honest and true.

There's a reason the Islanders didn't win anything with Tavares and once he left they started having better seasons. It's the same reason why the Leafs went from a young, scrappy bunch who battled the Caps in an intense 7 game series to a soft, spoiled, underachieving team who has won ONE playoff round in 7 years despite having one of the highest paid forward corps on the planet.

Tavares is similar to players like Turgeon and Giroux -- he's a high-end points compiler but lacks the intensity, intangibles, and "it factor" to truly win. He was an over-priced luxury item for the Leafs -- like buying a new, shiny Porsche when you already have a Maserati and a couple of Ferraris in the driveway and need a GMC to get you through the hard terrain and storms.

 

[Gabriel426]

Maybe others who are more fond of JT will disagree and find this harsh. But beyond his play style which I’m not a fan of, I don’t feel the easy or natural emotional connection to the player that I had even with a ROR briefly or Schenn 2.0. He’s not a heart and soul guy. And we haven’t had particularly great memory making history with him either. He’s the captain and it feels artificial.

So when his contract runs out I’m really not all that eager to lock him in for more.

I find the same sentiments. IF JT is to retire or trade or whatever today, I will be like, okay. I don't have any connections with JT one way or another unlike guys like Dougie, Clark and Sundin.

 

[Boxscore]

I find the same sentiments. IF JT is to retire or trade or whatever today, I will be like, okay. I don't have any connections with JT one way or another unlike guys like Dougie, Clark and Sundin.

Agreed. Dougie and Wendel are on a different planet than Tavares. Those guys were warriors and did anything to win. Sundin was a bigger, better, grittier Swedish Tavares who carried the club on his back with very little help.

Gilmour and Clark are like the 1987 Philadelphia Flyers -- even though they lost, they are still highly beloved because of their heart, skill, fight, intensity, and willingness to do anything it takes to help their team win. Dougie and Wendel are legends.

 

[Gabriel426]

Agreed. Dougie and Wendel are on a different planet than Tavares. Those guys were warriors and did anything to win. Sundin was a bigger, better, grittier Swedish Tavares who carried the club on his back with very little help.

Gilmour and Clark are like the 1987 Philadelphia Flyers -- even though they lost, they are still highly beloved because of their heart, skill, fight, intensity, and willingness to do anything it takes to help their team win. Dougie and Wendel are legends.

If Dougie or Sundin is playing now instead of AM and JT. Where their age matches, like Dougie being JT age and Sundin being AM age. Leafs would definitely won more than ONE round in last 7 yrs.

 

[Boxscore]

If Dougie or Sundin is playing now instead of AM and JT. Where their age matches, like Dougie being JT age and Sundin being AM age. Leafs would definitely won more than ONE round in last 7 yrs.

Without question. And we'd also have a way more likeable team too.

 

[Stephen]

I don't think it's harsh at all. I was absolutely roasted on UFA day when I said that signing Tavares was a massive mistake before the ink on the contract dried. What you're saying is 100% honest and true.

There's a reason the Islanders didn't win anything with Tavares and once he left they started having better seasons. It's the same reason why the Leafs went from a young, scrappy bunch who battled the Caps in an intense 7 game series to a soft, spoiled, underachieving team who has won ONE playoff round in 7 years despite having one of the highest paid forward corps on the planet.

Tavares is similar to players like Turgeon and Giroux -- he's a high-end points compiler but lacks the intensity, intangibles, and "it factor" to truly win. He was an over-priced luxury item for the Leafs -- like buying a new, shiny Porsche when you already have a Maserati and a couple of Ferraris in the driveway and need a GMC to get you through the hard terrain and storms.

Yeah. For me, he’s a lot like Anglo Pierre Turgeon with more Hockey Canada afterglow.

 

[Boxscore]

Yeah. For me, he’s a lot like Anglo Pierre Turgeon with more Hockey Canada afterglow.

Excellent way to frame it.

 

[GoonieFace]

If what I'm hearing is correct, then it sounds like Matthews and the Leafs will reach a deal that both can live with.

Matthews might be the best player the Leafs have ever had. They should try to keep him if they can reasonably do so.

Best player not named Lonny Bohanas

 

[pcruz]

If Dougie or Sundin is playing now instead of AM and JT. Where their age matches, like Dougie being JT age and Sundin being AM age. Leafs would definitely won more than ONE round in last 7 yrs.

Was Mats a great player in your opinion?
Was Mats a great playoff player?

Or did he wilt under pressure?

Genuine question.

I watched him his entire tenure in Toronto, and he remains one of my top 5 favourite players of this franchise along with Tucks, Phil, Roberts and Kaberle.

 

[Boxscore]

Was Mats a great player in your opinion?
Was Mats a great playoff player?

Or did he wilt under pressure?

Genuine question.

I watched him his entire tenure in Toronto, and he remains one of my top 5 favourite players of this franchise along with Tucks, Phil, Roberts and Kaberle.

I'm not making excuses for Mats but I think he had the serious misfortune of:

1. Being traded from a future powerhouse Nordiques / Avalanche team.

2. Playing for a team without a high-end supporting cast during a non-cap era when teams like Philly, NY, Det, Col, Dal, etc. were building super teams.

If Mats remains a Nord / Av and wins a couple of Cups while scoring more points, he goes down as an even better all-time great.

 

[pcruz]

With the Kampf news, and the reports that Toronto is still negotiating with Kerfoot, its just an incentive to tell the team to shove it up their ass when they ask for significant discounts.

Why would it be appealing to Matthews and others, to take 1 million or more in cuts, just to spend that money and cap space on Keefoot?

Between Kampf and Kerfoot, the salaries those 2 will demand is more than sufficient for RoR.

Just bonkers.

 

[Gabriel426]

Was Mats a great player in your opinion?
Was Mats a great playoff player?

Or did he wilt under pressure?

Genuine question.

I watched him his entire tenure in Toronto, and he remains one of my top 5 favourite players of this franchise along with Tucks, Phil, Roberts and Kaberle.

Well, there is a reason Sundin is on legends row.

Just unfortunate that the team can never build any talents around him and always end up with players who were on their last legs and thats include Leetch.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'm not making excuses for Mats but I think he had the serious misfortune of:

1. Being traded from a future powerhouse Nordiques / Avalanche team.

2. Playing for a team without a high-end supporting cast during a non-cap era when teams like Philly, NY, Det, Col, Dal, etc. were building super teams.

If Mats remains a Nord / Av and wins a couple of Cups while scoring more points, he goes down as an even better all-time great.

I love Mats. But he is not as talented as AM, MM and maybe even JT. Just like Mats is more talented than Clark and Dougie.

What Mats, Dougie and Clark had were heart and the will to fight that when the going get tough, they don't look over their shoulders to see if another person is going to stand up, they just put their heads up and step up.

 

[Boxscore]

I love Mats. But he is not as talented as AM, MM and maybe even JT. Just like Mats is more talented than Clark and Dougie.

What Mats, Dougie and Clark had were heart and the will to fight that when the going get tough, they don't look over their shoulders to see if another person is going to stand up, they just put their heads up and step up.

I think Sundin was easily more talented than Tavares. Better skater, better shot, elite backhander, better dekes. I also think his raw talent (except shot) was on par, or better, than Matthews, who is a pure shooter. Marner is tricky because he's a smaller, craftier, flashier player with tricks and moves. Marner is also an elite passer like Dougie was, perhaps even better.

But let's not forget that young and prime Mats was a hulking, lanky skater who could split defenses and beat guys one-on-one. He was like Mario Lemieux light -- big righty with some gorgeous moves. His backhander was also better than anyone on the Leafs current roster.

Swap Mats with Tavares or Matthews and have him play present day with little contact and a PP that features Marner, Nylander, and Rielly, and he'd be scoring 100+ every season.

 

[KPower]

Pretty quiet so I’m assuming Matty has a deal in place.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think Sundin was easily more talented than Tavares. Better skater, better shot, elite backhander, better dekes. I also think his raw talent (except shot) was on par, or better, than Matthews, who is a pure shooter. Marner is tricky because he's a smaller, craftier, flashier player with tricks and moves. Marner is also an elite passer like Dougie was, perhaps even better.

But let's not forget that young and prime Mats was a hulking, lanky skater who could split defenses and beat guys one-on-one. He was like Mario Lemieux light -- big righty with some gorgeous moves. His backhander was also better than anyone on the Leafs current roster.

Swap Mats with Tavares or Matthews and have him play present day with little contact and a PP that features Marner, Nylander, and Rielly, and he'd be scoring 100+ every season.

Agree

 

[NinjaKick]

Was Mats a great player in your opinion?
Was Mats a great playoff player?

Or did he wilt under pressure?

Genuine question.

I watched him his entire tenure in Toronto, and he remains one of my top 5 favourite players of this franchise along with Tucks, Phil, Roberts and Kaberle.

out of Sundin's 13 seasons as a leaf, he lead the team in scoring 12 times (mogilny once). I think that stat sums up Sundin perfectly.