News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[keonsbitterness]

What are you people on about?

The team can trade him right now, without a second thought, if they feel the need/want to. How is that not having control of their team right now?

All this hooplah about No-Trade crap is drummed up by our sports media who are in constant state of war with the teams from this area, and the dummies of this market eat that shit up.

The more relevant point is not the NMC, it's that Matthews only has one year left on his deal. If the goal is to trade him, whether in the next three days or after, the Leafs will not get a big enough return unless he's willing to do a sign-and-trade with that team.

NHL player salaries are based on comparables, but you're doing comparables wrong. You're taking a cherry picked peak that McDavid, Pastrnak, and Mackinnon hit after signing their contract, which is 100% irrelevant, while ignoring the relevant representative sample of what they did prior to their contract, that actually led to the contracts in question.

So what's a fair salary range for a 5 or 8 year deal?

 

[Gabriel426]

Still don’t understand why some here think AM making 13mil is doing a favor for the Leafs.
He is not better than Mack and should not be paid more than Mack.

 

[ORRFForever]

No bloody way Tavares will be in their plans making serious coin on his next deal.

You don't think they'd sign JT and his 30 goals / PPG for $6.5M?

Still don’t understand why some here think AM making 13mil is doing a favor for the Leafs.

He's not. It's just being spun that way.

 

[Gabriel426]

You don't think they'd sign JT and his 30 goals / PPG for $6.5M?


He's not. It's just being spun that way.

JT should be sign for 3-4mil if he wants what best for the Leafs.

Really hope you are right with the AM stuff

 

[Stephen]

You don't think they'd sign JT and his 30 goals / PPG for $6.5M?

I think expecting 30 goals from JT 3x seasons from now beginning in the 2025-26 season is extremely unrealistic. He’s going to be 35. And hell no I don’t want him back at $6.5 million. Hell no.

 

[Menzinger]

JT for his next contract will probably sign a 2-3 year deal with the Leafs for 3is mil.

He'll likely want to stay more so than anything at that point.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

Still don’t understand why some here think AM making 13mil is doing a favor for the Leafs.

Very few do. In most cases it's viewed more as an acceptable result rather than a positive one.

 

[Stephen]

JT for his next contract will probably sign a 2-3 year deal with the Leafs for 3is mil.

He'll likely want to stay more so than anything at that point.

A real decision will have to be made if we want that at all.

His 5 on 5 play style doesn’t fit the team well now. What will it look like 3 years from now at 35?

If he’s on a Giordano Spezza deal, okay whatever.

But a $3 million 3 year deal to take him to 2028 when we didn’t have success with him during his prime years on a team that might be in desperate need for a shakeup? No thank you. I don’t see the attraction, value proposition. Let’s get out of Tavares Jail and move on.

 

[horner]

No bloody way Tavares will be in their plans making serious coin on his next deal.

He will be a winger on his next deal bye JT

 

[Menzinger]

A real decision will have to be made if we want that at all.

His 5 on 5 play style doesn’t fit the team well now. What will it look like 3 years from now at 35?

If he’s on a Giordano Spezza deal, okay whatever.

But a $3 million 3 year deal to take him to 2028 when we didn’t have success with him during his prime years on a team that might be in desperate need for a shakeup? No thank you. I don’t see the attraction, value proposition. Let’s get out of Tavares Jail and move on.

That's all fair. I was also thinking more about where the cap will be in 2-3 years which should be quite higher.

He could potentially even be below 3 - probably depends on how hard the GM wants to try and sgueeze his desire to stay.

Even if he's more of a 45-55 point guy at 34/45 I'd have no issue with say a 2ish year deal

 

[Stephen]

That's all fair. I was also thinking more about where the cap will be in 2-3 years which should be quite higher.

He could potentially even be below 3 - probably depends on how hard the GM wants to try and sgueeze his desire to stay.

Even if he's more of a 45-55 point guy at 34/45 I'd have no issue with say a 2ish year deal

To put things undiplomatically, the idea that we’ll extend Tavares for another 3 years beyond his 7 year deal is very unappealing to me.

He’s been here for 5 years for his latter prime years and I’m ready to turn the page. It’s just hard to imagine he’d only be at 50% of his Leaf tenure if we kept him on for the full decade tour.

Yeah we might have a lot more cap. But I would rather have a fresh start.

 

[GoonieFace]

Kampf at 2.4m, Auston should slide in around $4.8, get it done

 

[keonsbitterness]

To put things undiplomatically, the idea that we’ll extend Tavares for another 3 years beyond his 7 year deal is very unappealing to me.

He’s been here for 5 years for his latter prime years and I’m ready to turn the page. It’s just hard to imagine he’d only be at 50% of his Leaf tenure if we kept him on for the full decade tour.

Yeah we might have a lot more cap. But I would rather have a fresh start.

I'm on the fence. He did score the only series-winning goal of recent memory. But if it's not a 1-2 year value deal, say goodbye.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You are taking my post too seriously / personally.
My point is : Fans have been saying for years that there is no room for depth once you take into consideration all the big contract. Unfortunately, that not going to change.
If JT signs, even at a discount - $6.5M/yr, we'd be back to where we started.
If you add Reilly to Matthews, Marner and Nylander, we're definitely back at 4 players chewing up 50% of the Cap.

There is room for depth, and we also would not be back to where we started, because even in the unlikely event that some combination of players gets us back to the 49.69% peak we once had, it's not going to stay there for years on end due to an unnaturally stagnated cap caused by a billion+ dollar player debt accumulated through a once in a century global pandemic, which was the actual issue.

So what's a fair salary range for a 5 or 8 year deal?

Until McDavid re-signs, there's a good argument that Matthews will be the best/most valuable player to ever sign what would be a currently legal UFA contract in the cap era, so it's a bit hard to determine an exact "fair" and he could probably get close to whatever he wanted in free agency if he pushed it, but based on historical precedent, he's easily over 13m on any legal term. As a team re-signing him to an extension, you'd probably be budgeting at least 13-14m on an 8 year deal and in the 14-15m range for a 5 year deal.

 

[seventieslord]

To put things undiplomatically, the idea that we’ll extend Tavares for another 3 years beyond his 7 year deal is very unappealing to me.

He’s been here for 5 years for his latter prime years and I’m ready to turn the page. It’s just hard to imagine he’d only be at 50% of his Leaf tenure if we kept him on for the full decade tour.

Yeah we might have a lot more cap. But I would rather have a fresh start.

You're right of course. As I've said before: At the moment JT becomes a UFA, he's one of 100 players Toronto could sign to fill up a roster spot. the leafs are one of 32 teams that he could choose to play with to prolong his career. Why JT? Why Toronto? The answer, of course, is that he's already here. Inertia. Psychology. Sentimentality. That's all it is. People who keep talking about him coming back should admit that to themselves.

I haven't heard any speculation about the dozens of other forwards set to be UFAs in the summer of 2025 and how they could fit in and at what price - just John Tavares.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

Still don’t understand why some here think AM making 13mil is doing a favor for the Leafs.
He is not better than Mack and should not be paid more than Mack.

If Mackinnon was signing today the AAV would be higher than he currently has. The top contracts in the league always leapfrog each other like that. It's not a big deal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You're right of course. As I've said before: At the moment JT becomes a UFA, he's one of 100 players Toronto could sign to fill up a roster spot. the leafs are one of 32 teams that he could choose to play with to prolong his career. Why JT? Why Toronto? The answer, of course, is that he's already here. Inertia. Psychology. Sentimentality. That's all it is. People who keep talking about him coming back should admit that to themselves. I haven't heard any speculation about the dozens of other forwards set to be UFAs in the summer of 2025 and how they could fit in and at what price - just John Tavares.

I mean, the real reason that people talk about him coming back is that he's our captain, and he's one of the most likely UFAs to give a discount on his market value to come/stay here, considering he already very publicly chose here instead of maximizing his earnings elsewhere once, and his expanding family is now firmly rooted here.

 

[ORRFForever]

JT should be sign for 3-4mil if he wants what best for the Leafs.

Really hope you are right with the AM stuff

They ALL should want what best for the Leafs.

There is room for depth, and we also would not be back to where we started, because even in the unlikely event that some combination of players gets us back to the 49.69% peak we once had, it's not going to stay there for years on end due to an unnaturally stagnated cap caused by a billion+ dollar player debt accumulated through a once in a century global pandemic, which was the actual issue.

Once in my life, I want to see the Leafs win the Cup (with my dad), so I hope you are right.

 

[Gabriel426]

If Mackinnon was signing today the AAV would be higher than he currently has. The top contracts in the league always leapfrog each other like that. It's not a big deal.

True but AM don’t deserve to be the highest paid player in the league. That’s the point. It is not about more than McD or Mack but what had he done that deserves to be the highest paid player in the league?

 

[Stephen]

I'm on the fence. He did score the only series-winning goal of recent memory. But if it's not a 1-2 year value deal, say goodbye.

I just don’t feel that much of a connection to the player or we’ve had the team success to really want to extend it beyond the 7 years.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Should just sign 1 year deals till hes done

Don’t give his agent ideas.

 

[Trapper]

That's all fair. I was also thinking more about where the cap will be in 2-3 years which should be quite higher.

He could potentially even be below 3 - probably depends on how hard the GM wants to try and sgueeze his desire to stay.

Even if he's more of a 45-55 point guy at 34/45 I'd have no issue with say a 2ish year deal

Doubt he makes that little. Giroux made 6 mil for 79 points.

 

[keonsbitterness]

True but AM don’t deserve to be the highest paid player in the league. That’s the point. It is not about more than McD or Mack but what had he done that deserves to be the highest paid player in the league?

They have zero interest in a rebuild, so what 1C are we trading him for?

 

[seventieslord]

I mean, the real reason that people talk about him coming back is that he's our captain, and he's one of the most likely UFAs to give a discount on his market value to come/stay here, considering he already very publicly chose here instead of maximizing his earnings elsewhere once, and his expanding family is now firmly rooted here.

Right, like I said. Sentimentality.

 

[Boxscore]

If Mackinnon was signing today the AAV would be higher than he currently has. The top contracts in the league always leapfrog each other like that. It's not a big deal.

Incorrect. He literally just signed last summer after winning a Cup, not after getting bounced by Seattle. The cap also didn't move. MacKinnon would be signing next week for 12.6 x 8 and there's nothing realistic to suggest otherwise. If Nate MacKinnon was all about squeezing the Avs he would have signed for more last time and insisted on 13.5 or 14 x 8 this time after winning a Cup. But he didn't, because he wants more kicks at the can.

If Matthews was a key piece to winning a Cup in Toronto, he would deserve a blank check. Mission accomplished. Doesn't matter if the cap is screwed, we would have had our Cup. But he hasn't -- he's won ONE playoff round in 7 years.