News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[the Mighty Oak]

Believe it when I see it. Him leaving money for the table could be not taking 15mil.

Yeah, I could see him taking 14. and trying to push it as team friendly.

 

[pcruz]

Yeah, I could see him taking 14. and trying to push it as team friendly.

Anything under 13.5 and over 4 years is a huge discount really.

Considering the quality of player, the individual acumen, and the rapidly rising cap, that'd be outside the top 10 contracts within a year or 2, it would be a very generous deal for the team.

 

[Niagara Bill]

Anything under 13.5 and over 4 years is a huge discount really.

Considering the quality of player, the individual acumen, and the rapidly rising cap, that'd be outside the top 10 contracts within a year or 2, it would be a very generous deal for the team.

13, 13.5, 14, 14.5...more important is the no trade issue. If AM slides down more this season you need to get him off your team asap. If the no trade clause was not about to kick in 2 days from now the Leafs would have leverage and control of their team today.

 

[pcruz]

13, 13.5, 14, 14.5...more important is the no trade issue. If AM slides down more this season you need to get him off your team asap. If the no trade clause was not about to kick in 2 days from now the Leafs would have leverage and control of their team today.

What are you people on about?

The team can trade him right now, without a second thought, if they feel the need/want to. How is that not having control of their team right now?

All this hooplah about No-Trade crap is drummed up by our sports media who are in constant state of war with the teams from this area, and the dummies of this market eat that shit up.


I'm shocked that there haven't been parades on the streets celebrating the imminent addition of a 2nd Toronto team based on Kypreos' comments that the sale of Tannenbaum to OMERS may facilitate a 2nd team here.


People, stop eating the shit fed to you by the Sun, Star, Cox, Kyper, et al.

 

[IPS]

Anything under 13.5 and over 4 years is a huge discount really.

Considering the quality of player, the individual acumen, and the rapidly rising cap, that'd be outside the top 10 contracts within a year or 2, it would be a very generous deal for the team.

WTF has become of this place.

That is still on the VERY HIGH END of what superstar UFA's get, not even remotely a discount.

 

[Mess]

Anything under 13.5 and over 4 years is a huge discount really.

Considering the quality of player, the individual acumen, and the rapidly rising cap, that'd be outside the top 10 contracts within a year or 2, it would be a very generous deal for the team.

Connor McDavid is making $12.5 mil AAV for the next 3 years and he just put up 64 goals and 153 points.

- He won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy for most goals, and Art Ross Trophy for most points, and also awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award, and was selected to the NHL First All-Star Team. This is Connor's 3rd Hart Trophy as league MVP.

If Auston Matthews puts up 60+ goals and 150 points on a 4 year deal @$13.5 then he will be considered only slightly overpaid by a million of so.

I'm of the position that the best player in the league and the World, should be the highest paid player in the NHL and all other players contracts fall below his.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Anything under 13.5 and over 4 years is a huge discount really.

Considering the quality of player, the individual acumen, and the rapidly rising cap, that'd be outside the top 10 contracts within a year or 2, it would be a very generous deal for the team.

Interesting. What if Matthews wasn't in the mood to give a "huge discount", but just wanted what was fair? What then in your view would be a fair contract on say a 5 year term, or an 8 year term?

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Current 32 thoughts.

Friedman says "we all know ow he (Matthews), is signing him 4, or 5 years."

He further adds that the team is confident they will sign Matthews and aren't worried if he goes past July 1st without an extension.

 

[Trapper]

Current 32 thoughts.

Friedman says "we all know ow he (Matthews), is signing him 4, or 5 years."

He further adds that the team is confident they will sign Matthews and aren't worried if he goes past July 1st without an extension.

I thought Treliving wanted 8 years?
Or does Matthews want 4 years so if the cap rises to 90 million he can sign again?
But I thought Matthews wanted to build the winning team? I’m so confused.

 

[pcruz]

Connor McDavid is making $12.5 mil AAV for the next 3 years and he just put up 64 goals and 153 points.

- He won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy for most goals, and Art Ross Trophy for most points, and also awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award, and was selected to the NHL First All-Star Team. This is Connor's 3rd Hart Trophy as league MVP.

If Auston Matthews puts up 60+ goals and 150 points on a 4 year deal @$13.5 then he will be considered only slightly overpaid by a million of so.

I'm of the position that the best player in the league and the World, should be the highest paid player in the NHL and all other players contracts fall below his.

Come on.

You're smarter than this.

This is akin to:

You buy 10,000 TTC tokens at $2 each in 2004 knowing that the price of fares is constantly increasing.

In the meantime, other people are losing their minds about paying $3.25 per fare years and years later, complaining that it's not fair you get to save so much money.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

5x13.34 is my prediction. If he was truly chasing money he would be worth over 15 on the open market with the cap rising

 

[Mess]

I thought Treliving wanted 8 years?
Or does Matthews want 4 years so if the cap rises to 90 million he can sign again?
But I thought Matthews wanted to build the winning team? I’m so confused.

Matthews is building a winning team that includes himself, his player agent Judd Moldaver, his parents Brian and Ema Matthews, his financial investor to name just a few beneficiaries of his winning team.

 

[pcruz]

Interesting. What if Matthews wasn't in the mood to give a "huge discount", but just wanted what was fair? What then in your view would be a fair contract on say a 5 year term, or an 8 year term?

What is the projected salary cap in 9 years time?

Actual market value for the top tier players is far higher than whatever they sign for.

Let's say that over the next 6 years, the cap rises to $104 million from the projected $89 million next year (2024-2025).

If the player believes that fair market value is 15% of that, then he should be taking the average salary cap for the years of contract, and taking the average 15% value of those.

It'd likely be in the $14 million to $15 million range.

For an 8 year deal, not factoring in the player's declining play, it could be safely assumed that the cap will be well over $115 million by the end of the contract.

If he determined that 15% is a good number, then that contract could look closer to the $16 million range.

Now, if I'm the team, I pitch the following points:

8 years at 12.5 is a nice round number of 100 million!

The chances that he will be on the decline by the end of the contract are very real, and that on a shorter term contract he could have a significant reduction in pay, so take 8 years at a lower rate.

The chances of injury grow with every year played, and therefore guaranteed contract over the next 8 years should be appealing because he'd get paid whether he plays or not.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Connor McDavid is making $12.5 mil AAV for the next 3 years and he just put up 64 goals and 153 points.

- He won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy for most goals, and Art Ross Trophy for most points, and also awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award, and was selected to the NHL First All-Star Team. This is Connor's 3rd Hart Trophy as league MVP.

If Auston Matthews puts up 60+ goals and 150 points on a 4 year deal @$13.5 then he will be considered only slightly overpaid by a million of so.

I'm of the position that the best player in the league and the World, should be the highest paid player in the NHL and all other players contracts fall below his.

That may be how you want contracts to work in the NHL, but that's not how contracts work in the NHL. You're given a percentage of the cap that you're worth at time of signing, based on what you've done up to that point and a number of other considerations, and then that's locked in for multiple years, no matter what you do later.

McDavid's production in this most recent year has absolutely nothing to do with the contract he signed 6 years ago under a lower cap, and McDavid's post-ELC contract has nothing to do with Matthews' UFA contract. The things McDavid is doing now will be relevant when McDavid comes due for his UFA contract, when he'll get a bigger contract than Matthews.

 

[pcruz]

That may be how you want contracts to work in the NHL, but that's not how contracts work in the NHL. You're given a percentage of the cap that you're worth at time of signing, based on what you've done up to that point and a number of other considerations, and then that's locked in for multiple years, no matter what you do later.

McDavid's production in this most recent year has absolutely nothing to do with the contract he signed 6 years ago under a lower cap, and McDavid's post-ELC contract has nothing to do with Matthews' UFA contract. The things McDavid is doing now will be relevant when McDavid comes due for his UFA contract, when he'll get a bigger contract than Matthews.

Which is precisely the way the system is meant to work.
The PA wants that to be the case, and frankly, so should the fans.

I know that the people who seemingly don't comprehend this, actually do, but are constantly playing Devil's Advocate just out of frustration with the team's lack of success.

They know that the player's had a ton of individual success, and due to frustration, they conflate everything together into really flimsy arguments and rants.
Doesn't help that nearly everyone in our media adds fuel and oxygen into the fire just for rage clicks.

 

[Gary Nylund]

What is the projected salary cap in 9 years time?

Actual market value for the top tier players is far higher than whatever they sign for.

Let's say that over the next 6 years, the cap rises to $104 million from the projected $89 million next year (2024-2025).

If the player believes that fair market value is 15% of that, then he should be taking the average salary cap for the years of contract, and taking the average 15% value of those.

It'd likely be in the $14 million to $15 million range.

For an 8 year deal, not factoring in the player's declining play, it could be safely assumed that the cap will be well over $115 million by the end of the contract.

If he determined that 15% is a good number, then that contract could look closer to the $16 million range.

Now, if I'm the team, I pitch the following points:

8 years at 12.5 is a nice round number of 100 million!

The chances that he will be on the decline by the end of the contract are very real, and that on a shorter term contract he could have a significant reduction in pay, so take 8 years at a lower rate.

The chances of injury grow with every year played, and therefore guaranteed contract over the next 8 years should be appealing because he'd get paid whether he plays or not.

I asked you what was fair. Are you now saying 8x12.5 is fair?

 

[Mess]

Come on.

This is akin to:

You buy 10,000 TTC tokens at $2 each in 2004 knowing that the price of fares is constantly increasing.

In the meantime, other people are losing their minds about paying $3.25 per fare years and years later, complaining that it's not fair you get to save so much money.

Come on and right back at you.

I would offer Matthews a 3 year bridge deal at $11.634 mil to overlap the next 3 years of McDavid's $12.5 mil deal, to keep his contract in line with the current market rates of the leagues best player.

- Everybody that understands contracts knows AM's current deal should have been 8 years at his current rate to start with, and that was already exceedingly generous based on rate of return to present, and should still have 4 years balance remaining at this point in time.

Also understanding but accepting, IF McDavid's 63 goals/150 points is worth $12.5 mil cap usage vs Matthews 40 goals and 85 points for $11.634 mil it would be poor value on return at that current rate for Leafs.

However when McDavid re-signs his next contact for say 5 years @ $15 mil setting the new NHL bar, I'd be comfortable coming in below that ceiling again, and it would be based on how Matthews performed statistically in comparison to McDavid during this same comparable years. Then if Matthews is still performing at a high level perhaps a 5 year $13.5 mil deal could be on the table but he would have to earn it based on current market prices and direct player comparison.

I'm all for giving Matthews a short 3-4 year deal but doing it to market correct, and not break the market again.

 

[pcruz]

I asked you what was fair. Are you now saying 8x12.5 is fair?

No.

Have you ever been part of a negotiation?

1 party asks for the moon
1 party offers nothing

Deal is struck in the middle


I think that 5 years at 13.5 is nice for the team, and still pretty good for the player.
Market value is about 15-16 for the player at that term.

I think that 8 years at 13.5 is really nice for the team, and depending on long term circumstances it could be good for the player as well.
Market value could be upwards of 17 for the player later into the contract.

 

[ACC1224]

Connor McDavid is making $12.5 mil AAV for the next 3 years and he just put up 64 goals and 153 points.

- He won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy for most goals, and Art Ross Trophy for most points, and also awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award, and was selected to the NHL First All-Star Team. This is Connor's 3rd Hart Trophy as league MVP.

If Auston Matthews puts up 60+ goals and 150 points on a 4 year deal @$13.5 then he will be considered only slightly overpaid by a million of so.

I'm of the position that the best player in the league and the World, should be the highest paid player in the NHL and all other players contracts fall below his.

McDavid will be the highest paid player when it's his turn to sign, that's how it works.
That doesn't mean thinking 13.5 x 4 as a huge discount isn't beyond hilarious.
I guess some will just do anything for attention.

 

[pcruz]

I would offer Matthews a 3 year bridge deal at $11.634 mil to overlap the next 3 years of McDavid's $12.5 mil deal, to keep his contract in line with the current market rates of the leagues best player.

- Everybody that understands contracts knows his current deal should have been 8 years at his current rate to start with, and that was already exceedingly generous based on rate of return.

Understanding but accepting, also IF McDavid's 63 goals/150 points is worth $12.5 mil vs Matthews 40 goals and 85 points for $11.634 mil would be poor value on return at that current rate for Leafs.

However when McDavid re-signs his next contact for say 5 years @ $15 mil setting the new NHL bar, I'd be comfortable coming in below that ceiling again, and it would be based on how Matthews performed statistically in comparison to McDavid during this same comparable years. Then if Matthews is still performing at a high level perhaps a 5 year $13.5 mil deal could be on the table but he would have to earn it based on current market prices and direct player comparison.

I'm all for giving Matthews a short 3-4 year deal but doing it to market correct.

Can you explain what McDavid's contract has to do with Matthews?
They don't play for the same team, they don't share agents, they don't even play in the same conference.

Why would Matthews even care about that contract and use it as a measuring stick for his own?

And why would Matthews compare his contract to McDavid when he could more accurately use Mackinnon's contract as a starting point for his?

Considering that Mack signed his contract much closer in time to Matthews' deal than McDavid, and also considering that Matthews has been a superior player with a better individual career, and is younger, why should he take a discounted deal in comparison?

 

[andora]

Should just sign 1 year deals till hes done

 

[theTTC]

What are you people on about?

People, stop eating the shit fed to you by the Sun, Star, Cox, Kyper, et al.

And give sole credence to the only reality expert - you? Nah. Your arguments are based on even more flimsy what-if speculation than the professional bs'ers.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No.

Have you ever been part of a negotiation?

1 party asks for the moon
1 party offers nothing

Deal is struck in the middle


I think that 5 years at 13.5 is nice for the team, and still pretty good for the player.
Market value is about 15-16 for the player at that term.

I think that 8 years at 13.5 is really nice for the team, and depending on long term circumstances it could be good for the player as well.
Market value could be upwards of 17 for the player later into the contract.

So you refuse to answer a simple question. That's fine, continue ridiculing everyone else's opinion while refusing to offer your own. Carry on.

 

[pcruz]

So you refuse to answer a simple question. That's fine, continue ridiculing everyone else's opinion while refusing to offer your own. Carry on.

"I think that 5 years at 13.5 is nice for the team, and still pretty good for the player."


Hmm...

 

[Dekes For Days]

Everybody that understands contracts knows AM's current deal should have been 8 years at his current rate to start with

Quite the opposite. All of those people know that Matthews' current deal was perfectly appropriate and consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

David Pastrnak is coming off a 2022-23 season of 61 goals 113 points (& runner up for Hart) just re-signed for 8 years at $11.25 mil.

Not only are you ignoring everything prior to this year, but you're ignoring that Pastrnak signed mid-season and wasn't coming off that.

Then if Matthews is still performing at a high level perhaps a 5 year $13.5 mil deal could be on the table but he would have to earn it based on current market prices and direct player comparison.

Matthews has already earned that based on established market prices and player comparisons.