News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[notbias]

Connor McDavid is making $12.5 mil AAV for the next 3 years and he just put up 64 goals and 153 points.

- He won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy for most goals, and Art Ross Trophy for most points, and also awarded the Hart Memorial Trophy, Ted Lindsay Award, and was selected to the NHL First All-Star Team. This is Connor's 3rd Hart Trophy as league MVP.

If Auston Matthews puts up 60+ goals and 150 points on a 4 year deal @$13.5 then he will be considered only slightly overpaid by a million of so.

I'm of the position that the best player in the league and the World, should be the highest paid player in the NHL and all other players contracts fall below his.

Ignoring the cap % makes the rest of your post invalid.

If McDavid signed the same cap % next year, it'd be $14 million.

Using dollar amounts makes absolutely zero sense and should invalidate anyone's opinion immediately.

 

[Gaberd2608]

Interesting. What if Matthews wasn't in the mood to give a "huge discount", but just wanted what was fair? What then in your view would be a fair contract on say a 5 year term, or an 8 year term?

I think anything that starts with a "13" is not "fair". Matthews shares a lot of the mannerisms and vibes that Kessel gave off imo. I dont think he would care if he took the money and stunk up the joint but if I am wrong, taking a huge contract and not living up to it is a lot for a player to deal with in the market.

I would offer Matthews a 3 year bridge deal at $11.634 mil to overlap the next 3 years of McDavid's $12.5 mil deal, to keep his contract in line with the current market rates of the leagues best player.

- Everybody that understands contracts knows AM's current deal should have been 8 years at his current rate to start with, and that was already exceedingly generous based on rate of return to present, and should still have 4 years balance remaining at this point in time.

Also understanding but accepting, IF McDavid's 63 goals/150 points is worth $12.5 mil cap usage vs Matthews 40 goals and 85 points for $11.634 mil it would be poor value on return at that current rate for Leafs.

As for a current market reference point David Pastrnak is coming off a 2022-23 season of 61 goals 113 points (& runner up for Hart) just re-signed for 8 years at $11.25 mil. So adjusting for position from winger to center and based on Matthews previous year 2021-22 totals of 61 goals/ 106 points not 2022-23, then his current rate of $11.634 seems comparable and reasonable to extend him at now for 3 more years, Nathan MacKinnon also a #1OA pick like AM and franchise center coming off a 42 goals 111 point season and recent Stanley Cup begins year #1 of his 8 year $12.6 mil deal, so the playoff success allowing him to adjust the NHL ceiling marginally upwards as Connor can't claim that yet.

However when McDavid re-signs his next contact for say 5 years @ $15 mil setting the new NHL bar, I'd be comfortable coming in below that ceiling again, and it would be based on how Matthews performed statistically in comparison to McDavid during this same comparable years. Then if Matthews is still performing at a high level perhaps a 5 year $13.5 mil deal could be on the table but he would have to earn it based on current market prices and direct player comparison.

I'm all for giving Matthews a short 3-4 year deal but doing it to market correct.

I really like this idea. I think it makes sense. I have a hard time not seeing him demand a big raise but in theory, this would work for us as his cap would not increase significantly. Even if it was 3 years x $12 million it is not that bad of an increase.

If Matthews and McDavid expire at the same time, we also would potentially have the leverage to see if we can sign McDavid instead of Matthews. Wouldnt that be a fun turn of events.

 

[Mess]

Can you explain what McDavid's contract has to do with Matthews?
They don't play for the same team, they don't share agents, they don't even play in the same conference.

Why would Matthews even care about that contract and use it as a measuring stick for his own?

And why would Matthews compare his contract to McDavid when he could more accurately use Mackinnon's contract as a starting point for his?

Considering that Mack signed his contract much closer in time to Matthews' deal than McDavid, and also considering that Matthews has been a superior player with a better individual career, and is younger, why should he take a discounted deal in comparison?

NHL players salaries are based on comparables that is why Matthews and McDavid contracts are linked, just like they were on their current contract rates.

As for a current market reference point David Pastrnak is coming off a 2022-23 season of 61 goals 113 points (& runner up for Hart) just re-signed for 8 years at $11.25 mil. So adjusting for position from winger to center and based on Matthews previous year 2021-22 totals of 61 goals/ 106 points not 2022-23, then his current rate of $11.634 seems comparable and reasonable to extend him at now for 3 more years,

Nathan MacKinnon also a #1OA pick like AM and franchise center coming off a 42 goals 111 point season and recent Stanley Cup begins year #1 of his 8 year $12.6 mil deal, so the playoff success allowing him to adjust the NHL ceiling marginally upwards as Connor can't claim that yet.

Why is Matthews new deal NOT based on current market deals of MacKinnon and Pastrnak?

That would put his contract range from $11.25 mill AAV (@C.H.% 13.64) to $12.6 mil AAV (@C.H.% 15.27) mil based on players producing at Matthews level statistically. Matthews current C.H.% = 14.64

Cap hit Ceiling 2023-24 = $83,500,000 at 14.64 CH% = $12,224,400 AAV current market rate for Matthews and that would be based on buying 8 years (like Pasta and Mac).

 

[Gary Nylund]

"I think that 5 years at 13.5 is nice for the team, and still pretty good for the player."


Hmm...

So you think 5x13.5 is fair, OK. Agree to disagree then.

 

[Aashir]

He’s going to take us to the cleaners I imagine and the usual people on here will praise him for it.

Generational contract negotiator

 

[Dekes For Days]

NHL players salaries are based on comparables that is why Matthews and McDavid contracts are linked, just like they were on their current contract rates.

As for a current market reference point David Pastrnak is coming off a 2022-23 season of 61 goals 113 points (& runner up for Hart) just re-signed for 8 years at $11.25 mil. So adjusting for position from winger to center and based on Matthews previous year 2021-22 totals of 61 goals/ 106 points not 2022-23, then his current rate of $11.634 seems comparable and reasonable to extend him at now for 3 more years,

Nathan MacKinnon also a #1OA pick like AM and franchise center coming off a 42 goals 111 point season and recent Stanley Cup begins year #1 of his 8 year $12.6 mil deal, so the playoff success allowing him to adjust the NHL ceiling marginally upwards as Connor can't claim that yet.

NHL player salaries are based on comparables, but you're doing comparables wrong. You're taking a cherry picked peak that McDavid, Pastrnak, and Mackinnon hit after signing their contract, which is 100% irrelevant, while ignoring the relevant representative sample of what they did prior to their contract, that actually led to the contracts in question.

 

[fahad203]

I wouldn't want to leave either, if someone paid me 14 million dollars
Not to mention his hometown won't have a team next year

 

[Mess]

Ignoring the cap % makes the rest of your post invalid.

If McDavid signed the same cap % next year, it'd be $14 million.

Using dollar amounts makes absolutely zero sense and should invalidate anyone's opinion immediately.

Here is a clue for you to help you understand C.H.% ..

LENGTH: 5 Years & VALUE: $58,195,000 = $11.634 AAV = C.H.% 14.64 %
LENGTH: 8 Years & VALUE: $93,072,000 = $11.634 AAV = C.H.% 14.64 %

Cap Hit: A player's cap hit is determined as the average annual value of their current contract based. Cap hit is calculated by dividing the total salary plus signing bonuses of a contract by the contract's length. A players Cap Hit % is their average annual value as percentage of the NHL upper ceiling at time of signing.

The key to understanding the Matthew's contract was knowing the 1st X 4 years were team controllable RFA (restrictive free agency) & final 4 X years of an 8 year deal are expensive UFA years.

Compared to McDavid AAV at $12.5 and C.H% 16.67 and 8 years (4 X RFA) + (4X UFA) & Matthews deal should be 8 years at 11.634 mil and C.H.% 14.64% including (4 X RFA & 4X UFA years).

Leafs should not be in this position of overpaying Matthews now because that is doubling down on past contract mistake.

 

[Niagara Bill]

What are you people on about?

The team can trade him right now, without a second thought, if they feel the need/want to. How is that not having control of their team right now?

All this hooplah about No-Trade crap is drummed up by our sports media who are in constant state of war with the teams from this area, and the dummies of this market eat that shit up.


I'm shocked that there haven't been parades on the streets celebrating the imminent addition of a 2nd Toronto team based on Kypreos' comments that the sale of Tannenbaum to OMERS may facilitate a 2nd team here.


People, stop eating the shit fed to you by the Sun, Star, Cox, Kyper, et al.

Is it not true that AM has a no trade clause effective July 1, 2023.
Dies that not mean we cannot trade him?
Does that not mean if he decides not to sign a contract that we lose him for nothing?

So BOY, what you flippi got.

 

[notbias]

Here is a clue for you to help you understand C.H.% ..

LENGTH: 5 Years & VALUE: $58,195,000 = $11.634 AAV = C.H.% 14.64 %
LENGTH: 8 Years & VALUE: $93,072,000 = $11.634 AAV = C.H.% 14.64 %

Cap Hit: A player's cap hit is determined as the average annual value of their current contract based. Cap hit is calculated by dividing the total salary plus signing bonuses of a contract by the contract's length. A players Cap Hit % is their average annual value as percentage of the NHL upper ceiling at time of signing.

The key to understanding the Matthew's contract was knowing the 1st X 4 years were team controllable RFA (restrictive free agency) & final 4 X years of an 8 year deal are expensive UFA years.

Compared to McDavid AAV at $12.5 and C.H% 16.67 and 8 years (4 X RFA) + (4X UFA) & Matthews deal should be 8 years at 11.634 mil and C.H.% 14.64% including (4 X RFA & 4X UFA years).

Leafs should not be in this position of overpaying Matthews now because that is doubling down on past contract mistake.

argue years signed and CH% then, not the dollar amount.

This whole post could have been summed up with:

"Sorry for using a dollar amount as clearly it has no relevance, let me change the subject since my original point makes no sense"

 

[ORRFForever]

Believe it when I see it.

Me, too...

 

[Throw More Waffles]

There's no two ways about it...

Matthews is about to sign for something like 13.5x5 and it will be seen as a "discount" because he didn't take 15. lol.

The propagandists here will be working overtime trying to rationalize it as "fair".

It's all so predictable.

The entire rest of the league will mock the contract, just like last time.

This team is cursed. What's the freaking point any longer.

 

[Gabriel426]

There's no two ways about it...

Matthews is about to sign for something like 13.5x5 and it will be seen as a "discount" because he didn't take 15. lol.

The propagandists here will be working overtime trying to rationalize it as "fair".

It's all so predictable.

The entire rest of the league will mock the contract, just like last time.

This team is cursed. What's the freaking point any longer.

That’s what I thought too. There are fans already here defending a 5 yrs deal and signing for 13mil is less cap % than his current deal…

 

[ORRFForever]

There's no two ways about it...

Matthews is about to sign for something like 13.5x5 and it will be seen as a "discount" because he didn't take 15. lol.

The propagandists here will be working overtime trying to rationalize it as "fair".

It's all so predictable.

The entire rest of the league will mock the contract, just like last time.

This team is cursed. What's the freaking point any longer.

LMAO! So true.

Great post. Hit the nail on the head while making me laugh.

 

[Martin Skoula]

There's no two ways about it...

Matthews is about to sign for something like 13.5x5 and it will be seen as a "discount" because he didn't take 15. lol.

The propagandists here will be working overtime trying to rationalize it as "fair".

It's all so predictable.

The entire rest of the league will mock the contract, just like last time.

This team is cursed. What's the freaking point any longer.

You should probably just delete your account, save yourself the pain. Rest easy sweet prince, you fought the good fight but the fight won.

 

[ORRFForever]

The Leafs are about to go from 4 players eating up half the Cap to 3 players (almost) eating up half the Cap.

TRADE MARNER !!!!

 

[Stephen]

Media starting to walk back the obscene contract nonsense.

I would take that as a sign the shape of the contract has been largely determined on the AAV and term front and now is time to do a little PR framing. If it’s on the high side, it could have been higher…

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Leafs are about to go from 4 players eating up half the Cap to 3 players (almost) eating up half the Cap.

The 4 don't even take up half the cap now, and for 3 to take up half the cap, Matthews would have to get like 22m. That's literally impossible.

 

[ORRFForever]

The 4 don't even take up half the cap now, and for 3 to take up half the cap, Matthews would have to get like 22m. That's literally impossible.

I was exaggerating, of course, but if Matthews signs for $13.5, Marner for $12 and Nylander for $10, it's getting pretty close. Even if Tavares signs for a discount, we'd have 4 forwards eating up half the Cap, AGAIN.

Add Reilly and there's not a lot left.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I was exaggerating, of course, but if Matthews signs for $13.5, Marner for $12 and Nylander for $10, it's getting pretty close.

That would only be 42.5% under even the current cap, and if we're talking about new contracts for all of them, then we're talking 2 years down the line under a higher cap. You're looking at a peak of less than 40% in your scenario for those 3, which isn't all that close.

 

[Go4soda]

so when matthews takes 13.5 instead of 15, he’ll be considered generous for leaving some money for other players?

 

[ORRFForever]

That would only be 42.5% under even the current cap, and if we're talking about new contracts for all of them, then we're talking 2 years down the line under a higher cap. You're looking at a peak of less than 40% in your scenario for those 3, which isn't all that close.

You are taking my post too seriously / personally.

My point is : Fans have been saying for years that there is no room for depth once you take into consideration all the big contract. Unfortunately, that not going to change.

If JT signs, even at a discount - $6.5M/yr, we'd be back to where we started.

If you add Reilly to Matthews, Marner and Nylander, we're definitely back at 4 players chewing up 50% of the Cap.

 

[Trapper]

There's no two ways about it...

Matthews is about to sign for something like 13.5x5 and it will be seen as a "discount" because he didn't take 15. lol.

The propagandists here will be working overtime trying to rationalize it as "fair".

It's all so predictable.

The entire rest of the league will mock the contract, just like last time.

This team is cursed. What's the freaking point any longer.

It’s the gas price scam.
Gas is 1.40 but I want to make it 1.80.
So I put it up to 2 dollars for a while and lower it to 1.80 and now everyone is happy it’s not 2 dollars and think that’s much better.

Then it’s team first guy.
Make him Captain.
Great deal across the league.
Love the term. Smart move.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Anything under 13.5 and over 4 years is a huge discount really.

Considering the quality of player, the individual acumen, and the rapidly rising cap, that'd be outside the top 10 contracts within a year or 2, it would be a very generous deal for the team.

"I think that 5 years at 13.5 is nice for the team, and still pretty good for the player."


Hmm...

There seems to be a contradiction here.

 

[Stephen]

I was exaggerating, of course, but if Matthews signs for $13.5, Marner for $12 and Nylander for $10, it's getting pretty close. Even if Tavares signs for a discount, we'd have 4 forwards eating up half the Cap, AGAIN.

Add Reilly and there's not a lot left.

No bloody way Tavares will be in their plans making serious coin on his next deal.